The West has grossly miscalculated in the estimates of the Russian harvest

November 1, 2020 12

Prices for Russian grain are breaking new records. By the end of October, the cost of one ton of wheat reached 15 thousand rubles, barley - up to 11,27 thousand, corn - up to 13,3 thousand rubles. Importers are already asking prices for the marketing year 2021/2022. There is a high probability that wheat from Russia will only continue to rise in price. What are the reasons to believe so?

The phenomenal prices for Russian wheat are determined by a combination of several factors:

At firstfrightened by the lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic, many states have increased food imports to ensure their own national security, while producers, on the contrary, have reduced, holding back supplies for themselves for a rainy day. In the summer everyone seemed to relax a little and threw off their masks, but now the "quarantine nuts" have begun to tighten again. The situation is aggravated by the ongoing election campaign in the United States, the results of which will determine in which direction it will unfold policy "Hegemon". If, during the struggle for power, the parties turn to violence, this will negatively affect the entire world the economy.

SecondlyClimate change has had a major impact on this year's harvest. Due to the drought, many of the leading agrarian powers lost their harvest. It got to the point that, for example, France ceded a significant share of its traditional Algerian grain market to Russia. Experts also expected big problems in the Black Sea region for Russia itself and neighboring Ukraine. It was suggested that Moscow and Kiev in 2020 will not receive about 30% of the planned volumes. For comparison, in 2019 Nezalezhnaya harvested 29,2 million tons of wheat, and this was expected to be no more than 20 million. The result was better - 25,1 million tons. For our country, some foreign analysts "guessed" the gross grain harvest at the level of 73 to 75 million tons, but they were very mistaken, since domestic farmers harvested more than 120 million tons.

Such negative forecasts also have their positive side: the demand for food is growing, and with it the price. However, it would be extremely rash to ignore the climatic factor. Winters become abnormally warm and snowless, and the summer season becomes hot and dry. We cannot fundamentally change anything, so a high harvest in the foreseeable future may become a kind of lottery, no matter how lucky.

Thirdly, China with its 7,2 billion population can have a major impact on the grain market. Today, China is the world's second largest consumer of corn after Mexico. She imports it from the USA, Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine. Basically, this type of grain is used in China for the needs of animal husbandry, but drought and storms have caused great damage to their own crops. As a result, Beijing decided to increase the quota for duty-free corn imports from 20 million tons to XNUMX million, that is, almost three times.

This will have dramatic consequences for the grain market. There are well-founded fears that now producers will be interested in growing this particular crop at the expense of others. Corn may push wheat, which will lead to further increases in prices for it.

Information

Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.

Cudgel

-6

1 November 2020 12: 49

An article from the category, it became bad, but we will declare it as a Victory!
Author, grain, as it cost $ 200 per ton, is worth it, and your 15 rubles, this is $ 000. And this is definitely bad for our consumers! Both for the population and for livestock and poultry breeders. The jump in the cost of grain in 200, fell, in my opinion, 200-2006 (I do not remember exactly), as a result of which the number of pigs in private subsidiary farms has significantly decreased, it has become not profitable. And the result of 2008 is at a rate of about 15 rubles. per dollar, at a rate of 000, it would have been as before 70 per ton. When the dollar rate becomes 60, then you will write an even more furiously patriotic article that the cost of the produced grain has increased by tens of percent.
And the fact that for the sake of "record" harvests they began to grow low-quality wheat and let it be used for bakery products, so for this it is generally necessary to exile to Siberia. If we took the proportions of hard (which are less productive) and soft varieties that were under the Soviets, then from Putin's wonderful breakthrough in the agricultural sector, there would be nothing left, as in any other area, everywhere - zilch.
1. goncharov.62
  
  +4
  
  1 November 2020 15: 09
  
  You have a catchy nickname. Such, you know, self-critical. I have no doubt - only a strong person can wear it. Well, just like "KATYA" from KVN ...
2. Marzhecki
  
  +1
  
  1 November 2020 16: 09
  
  Quote: Cudgel
  An article from the category, it became bad, but we will declare it as a Victory!
  
  the article is not about that at all. but each sees his own.
  1. passing by
    
    +2
    
    1 November 2020 16: 13
    
    there are bee people, there are fly people ...
    1. Marzhecki
      
      +1
      
      2 November 2020 09: 10
      
      Quote: passing by
      there are bee people, there are fly people ...
      
      That's for sure. But not all fly people understand who they really are.
  2. Cudgel
    
    -5
    
    1 November 2020 16: 32
    
    ... Prices for Russian grain are breaking new records. By the end of October, the cost of one ton of wheat reached 15 rubles.
    
    - in my opinion this is your pearl. As we received $ 200 per ton on the foreign market, we are getting it. And the fact that the clumsy Putin raised the dollar to 70 rubles is that wheat has become more expensive for the domestic consumer and I don't understand what can be happy about here? Now, if on the domestic market, wheat was sold for 6 rubles. ton, and on the outside for $ 000, you could jump for joy.
    In my opinion, this is another (probably already the fiftieth in a row, during his reign) Putin's failure, and you announced it as a victory.
    1. Marzhecki
      
      +2
      
      2 November 2020 09: 12
      
      Quote: Cudgel
      ... Prices for Russian grain are breaking new records. By the end of October, the cost of one ton of wheat reached 15 rubles.
      - in my opinion this is your pearl. As we received $ 200 per ton on the foreign market, we are getting it.
      
      You write nonsense. The problem would be if we bought wheat for dollars, but we sell it. The devaluation of the ruble, with all the disadvantages of this phenomenon, gives more ruble income when exporting grain.
      P.S. and the fact that wheat is sold at a high price on the domestic market is a claim to the "invisible hand of the market". You are kind of liberal, what don't you like? Do you want to introduce state regulation of prices in this particular case?
      1. Vasily Astrakhantsev
        
        +1
        
        3 November 2020 19: 09
        
        Those who buy for rubles, for 15000 rubles, first buy these rubles for dollars. And if they needed $ 200 for this, now it is 150.
        
        Insults are not encouraged on this resource, but what word can you call a fool if he is a fool? Your "Devaluation of the ruble with all the disadvantages of this phenomenon gives more ruble income when exporting grain."
    2. Dear sofa expert.
      
      +5
      
      2 November 2020 13: 30
      
      As we received $ 200 per ton on the foreign market, we are getting it.
      
      Vrenyo always starts with little things.)
      
      The price of wheat on the world market for 2018-2019 was not $ 200, but € 194
      And this is $ 226.
      
      Stop doing your cheap lies here. Do not hope that someone here is even worse than you.
3. Svat_24
  
  -1
  
  3 November 2020 06: 53
  
  Based on what you said - we used to sell high quality (hard, low-yielding) wheat for 200 bucks, and now we sell low-quality (soft, high-yielding) wheat, but like hard wheat for 200 bucks !!! Attention question - why bother with hard, if soft at the same price !? But again, there is a nuance, solid is also grown, for their own needs ... Oh, yes, and again - demand creates supply, respectively, they grow what is in demand
Sergey Latyshev

-1

1 November 2020 15: 35

in principle, everything is both right and wrong
1) Harvest and sales depend on the weather - today is, tomorrow is not. Lucky 2 years.
What if you don't get lucky?
2) They wrote that the world is chasing hard wheat. And ours is mostly soft, and even in bread, its massive pasta is poured under the guise of hard .. Diabetes mellitus, ay !!!!
3) You read the composition of meat products and sausages - also grated chicken, soy, flour, additives ...
Diabetes mellitus, we are all hiding ...
4) And the finish. Who benefits from ???
Will the sales money go to people? Chosen people? Foreign people?

With an abundance of articles about the harvest, as there are no enthusiastic articles, how lucky the farmers are !!! It used to be here. how unlucky, and reduced crops, and now?
Rus

-2

2 November 2020 23: 09

In my village, Penza region, my mother buys grain for chickens at 700 rubles per bag ... From a neighboring field at the same price as an Egyptian in Cairo from my field ... All for the Russians