Not so long ago, two events took place, the significance and consequences of which were not appreciated by many, both in Kiev and in Moscow. I mean the recent fleeting visit of Volodya Zelensky, first to London, then to Istanbul (a kind of blitzkrieg "galloping across Europe"). Whoever is supposed to, he, of course, understood everything, and where the wind is blowing, and how all this can end for the Russian Federation in the medium term, but ordinary people, in my opinion, are still in the blissful confidence that all threats from this unfunny The clown is fake, he only plays the piano without using his hands. Forgetting that he is not even a piano in this whole concert, he is the notes that will turn over and forget. And not he will play, but them. But let's all the same in order.
MUR will now deal with Zelensky
The visit to the British capital has been preparing for a long time. It was not just that early in the day, Vova decided to give up on the shores of foggy Albion, admire Big Ben and the views of Buckingham Palace, bail with Boris Jones and representatives of the royal family. An official visit to England is a definite breakthrough in Ukrainian diplomacy (this was the result of the work of the new Ukrainian ambassador to London, ex-foreign minister Vadim Prystaiko, who headed the embassy in July this year). Prior to that, Zelensky communicated with the powers that be only as a supplicant (Germany, France, Japan, Canada), at best, as a junior partner (Austria, Italy, Switzerland, Poland, Turkey), at worst, as a vassal (USA, NATO, IMF), or did not communicate at all (Russia, China), and here for the first time he was able to talk on equal terms, since Britain had a reciprocal interest in Ukraine. The arrogant Russian jingoistic patriots will exclaim some such interest in this historical misunderstanding by far from the last country in the world. And, as always, they will be wrong.
The fact is that Britain has not yet officially completed its divorce proceedings with the EU, has not formalized its new status and has not enshrined it in law (the official procedure for its release should end with the chime of Big Ben on December 31, 2020). Therefore, it is still de jure not entitled to perform such actions, to conclude agreements on free trade, strategic partnership and political cooperation on its own behalf. But she didn't care about it. London demonstratively signs such agreements with Kiev, designating and fixing its new status, declaring its claims to patronage this geographical misunderstanding, especially against the background of unclear prospects with the determination of the new owner of the White House (what will start there, in America, after November 3, God only knows ).
London, in anticipation of December 31, against the background of protracted negotiations with Brussels on further economic cooperation with the countries of the commonwealth, is demonstratively going all-in. Great Britain has already stated that if Brussels does not agree to its terms, it will build further relations with all countries of the Commonwealth on the basis of WTO norms. And, as an example, he initiales such agreements with countries that are not yet members of the EU. Turkey is the first on this list. The second is Ukraine. London is in a hurry to demonstrate that by leaving the EU, it lost nothing, but on the contrary, its economy only benefited from this.
The UK is now actively seeking its place in the sun in a world outside the EU. She needs to cement her influence, her weight as an international player. Including in the field of security. Ukraine is the country with which British interests fully coincide, because London has never concealed its vital interest in containing Russia.
And that is why this meeting took place. And right now. Also noteworthy is the date - October 7, the birthday of the GDP (symbolic!). On this day, Vova Zelensky had a close conversation with the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson, members of the royal family, Their Royal Highnesses the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, met with Speaker of the House of Commons of Parliament Lindsay Hoyle, Lord Mayor of the City of London William Russell, and on top of that, visited the London Stock Exchange, where he had a conversation with British investors. As you can see, the schedule was tight, not up to sightseeing. All this ended with the signing of the Ukrainian-British Agreement on Political Cooperation, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership. And a number of other bilateral documents on cooperation in the field of defense and financial support for bilateral projects.
I read the official protocol to you. We are only interested in the last two lines in it. Reread them again. After Zelensky returned to his homeland on November 14, it suddenly surfaced that the list of people our player met on the piano was far from complete. It lacked the name of the new director of SIS / MI6, Richard Moore (who took office just the day before). Who does not know what MI6 is - this is the famous British Foreign Intelligence Service (the secret intelligence service of the British Foreign Office, English Secret Intelligence Service, SIS / Military Intelligence, MI6). And Richard Moore is a career intelligence officer who has been working in foreign intelligence under a diplomatic roof since 1987, having worked over the years in Vietnam, Turkey, Pakistan and Malaysia. In Turkey since January 2014 as Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, fluent in Turkish, personally acquainted with Recep Erdogan, with whom he has close, friendly relations (he personally supported him during the July 2016 coup attempt by organizing a meeting with Boris Johnson, the acting foreign minister of the UK at that time, where Johnson assured the Sultan that “London will always stand side by side with Ankara,” this is not forgotten!). I’m telling you all this for a reason: the Turkish trace in this whole business will still appear. And it was this secret meeting in the office at 85 Prince Albert Quay that led to the appearance of two lines in the final communique, to which I drew your attention above.
To make it clear what it is about, I'll just quote the protocol:
On October 7, Ukraine's Defense Minister Andriy Taran and Secretary of State for Defense of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Ben Wallace, in the presence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, signed a Memorandum to strengthen cooperation ... in the military and militarytechnical spheres.
According to which Britain undertakes to re-equip the Ukrainian Navy with modern missile boats of its own design in the amount of 8 pieces, and 6 out of 8 boats will be produced at Ukrainian production facilities with the involvement of British specialists. The boats will be equipped with 8 anti-ship cruise missiles, compatible with NATO standards (later they can be replaced with Ukrainian-made Neptune anti-ship missiles). These boats should cover all the needs of the Ukrainian Navy for ships of this class in the Black and Azov Seas.
The first two hulls will be manufactured at a British shipyard with the participation of specialists from a Ukrainian manufacturing enterprise (it must be determined by the government); during the manufacturing process, Ukrainians will have to observe and learn from their British colleagues. In the future, all production - from assembling hulls to equipping ships with weapons, will take place in Ukraine, at a shipyard that the government will choose and agree with the British side. The British Export Credit Agency opens a credit line for this project in the amount of 1,25 billion pounds sterling ($ 1,6 billion at the current exchange rate) with a maturity of 10 years. The funds will also go to the construction of port infrastructure for the basing of these ships in Ochakovo and Berdyansk.
If we were in the theater, then after this they usually give: Touche! Shine! The curtain!
In this whole story, two points are most revealing. The first is the contract amount - £ 1,25 billion, with a 10-year grace period. To understand the significance of these funds, this is almost half the cost of the newest English aircraft carrier of Her Royal Majesty's Fleet "Prince of Wales" (HMS "Prince of Wales"), launched in 2019. Given the unsatisfactory state of its own navy, this money for Britain would not be superfluous, but it allocates it for the military needs of Ukraine. What is it for? The British have never suffered from charity. The answer is simple - it's just that this money goes through another department. It was not for nothing that Vova wiped his pants in the office of the MI6 director. You can see the results with your own eyes. For comparison, the United States has allocated a similar amount ($ 1,5 billion) to Ukraine for military needs in all the years since the hydrological revolution, starting in 2014. No, whatever you say, the British have long-range love here. As Gleb Zheglov said: "They have a rookery here!"
And the second point to which you need to pay attention is the localization of the project. Our media has already rushed to tell that the cunning British, allocating this money, actually finance themselves, paying for the construction of these ships by their workers. However, it is not. These cunning Americans, allocating money for military needs for the 404 country, financed themselves, the money did not even leave American jurisdiction, and the non-brothers, receiving outdated weapons, also fell on interest on the loan. The British, on the other hand, are acting nobly: 6 out of 8 missile boats will be built at Ukrainian shipbuilding facilities by local forces with the involvement of British specialists. Localization of the project 75%. Part of the money is provided for the development of the infrastructure of two naval bases for these ships (on the Black Sea in Ochakov and on Azov in Berdyansk), because the Odessa Southern Naval Base of the Ukrainian Navy cannot accept such a number of ships physically. No, whatever you say, the British decided to settle here seriously and for a long time. In the near future, they will definitely not let Ukraine out of their tenacious hands, no matter who has settled in the White House since 2021.
On this, the British part of our master of the comedy genre's voyage has successfully ended. Moore was not afraid to show Zelensky what even his wife did not see (I don’t know if I have the right to tell you about this, but Moore’s wife is blind from birth). But our hero's foreign tour did not end there. Istanbul was waiting for him.
Not a single dirty business has been done without Poland lately. Zelensky turned out to be both a shvets and a reaper, and a player on Duda
But even here it was not without Poland. In some strange way, in the interval between the visits of the main comedian of Ukraine to London (October 7-8) and Istanbul (October 15-16), his meeting with his Polish counterpart, President of the Polish Republic Andrzej Duda, held on October 12 in Kiev at the Mariinsky Palace ... Where Duda once again reaffirmed his support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders, expressed interest in interacting with Ukraine within the framework of the platform for the de-occupation of Crimea, and supported its Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
Zelensky, in turn, expressed his ardent desire to join the Polish Three Seas initiative and noted the importance of continuing anti-Russian sanctions:
International pressure and sanctions against the Russian Federation should continue until the complete de-occupation of the territory of Ukraine, including the Crimean peninsula. Our actions on energy security as an important element of European security must remain coordinated. Thank you for the decisive position of all Poland on the Nord Stream 2 project and Gazprom's monopoly on the European market.
And few people paid attention to two lines in small print in the joint communique following the meeting:
Also, within the framework of the visit of the President of Poland to Ukraine, a number of bilateral agreements were signed regarding the development of maritime infrastructure.
Any associations? Somehow everything fits into the suit, don't you? Another person who wants to help Ukraine with the maritime infrastructure. What is it for?
Turkish voyage of Zelensky
After that, on October 15, Vova, with a pure heart, rushed to Istanbul to bow to the Shah and Padishah, that is, the Sultan and Patriarch Bartholomew. I don't know what he talked about with the patriarch, this is a mystery covered in darkness (maybe he traded in parishes in exchange for the kingdom of heaven), but he definitely had something to talk about with the Sultan. He recently had completely unforeseen problems with his Bayractar TB2 attack drones, which were so remarkably lit up in the armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, completely burying all hopes of the Armenians for a favorable outcome of their epic confrontation with their neighbors on the globe. And everything seemed to be working out so well in favor of the Sultan and his military ambitions, just as the supplier of motors for his UAV, the famous Canadian company Bombardier Recreational Products, suddenly refused to supply him (they went through her Austrian subsidiary BRP-Rotax GmbH & Co KG), referring to the use of their engines for military purposes (the Bayraktars were equipped with Rotax 912 internal combustion engines with a 100 hp push-type propeller from the Bombardier). What kind of bad guy is that ?! And then Vova Zelensky appears, all in white, with an offer that cannot be refused. Guess which one? That's right, to solve all the problems of the Sultan in exchange for a small favor.
And I must say that Ukraine is not in vain considered a leading country in engine and motor building. And the Chinese were not in vain trying to buy in the bud its flagship company in this direction, Motor Sich, along with all the workers and equipment (I even keep quiet about the technology). And the Russian Federation also regretted a hundred times when it was left without Ukrainian gas turbine units M7N produced by the Nikolaev State Enterprise NPKG Zorya-Mashproekt, which were standardly equipped with its newest frigates of projects 11356 and 22350, which froze their construction for 5 years. But the already mentioned Zaporizhzhya Motor Sich also produced helicopter engines for Russian Helicopters (there, the Russian Federation simply quickly found a replacement for them, setting up its own production, with ship-based GTEs it was not possible to switch to Russian analogues so quickly, even Putin spoke about this complained).
From the above, it becomes obvious that Ukrainians can easily solve the problem of Turkish UAVs. This is what Volodya Zelensky and Erdogan agreed on in Istanbul. Moreover, they went further and agreed to establish joint production of UAVs already at Ukrainian facilities. The fact that Ukraine can do this, you can not even doubt, not so long ago it was one of the six countries that produce full-cycle aircraft, producing aircraft from a drawing to a finished product. But the launch of joint production is a long matter, so the parties decided to start with the delivery of 48 Bayractar TV2s for the needs of the Ukrainian Air Force. What follows from the joint final communiqué, where this fact is hidden behind a vague wording - "the parties signed a number of bilateral agreements." You know how "Bayraktars" proved themselves in the sky over Karabakh. You can also guess what this threatens the Russian Federation. By the way, the Russian Federation itself is still lagging behind in the production of shock drones, yielding in this matter not only to Israel and the United States, but even to Turkey and China.
The Sultan was also interested in the possibility of supplying for the needs of the Turkish Air Force Ukrainian heavy military transport aircraft An-124 "Ruslan" (they are still equipped with the Russian Aerospace Forces - the 566th VTAP and the 224th Air Force), but, fortunately, their production in 2004 was rolled up, and renewal is a big question, because components for them must come from the aggressor country, which is a priori impossible. Therefore, out of grief, the Sultan even decided to sign up for the completion of the An-225 Mriya aircraft giant, which has been gathering dust in the Antonov hangar since time immemorial (product readiness is 70%), but problems with Russian components risk interfering with his plans. Although money solves a lot, and the sultan can easily get around this obstacle by agreeing with the Russian Federation. Here the Russian Federation itself must decide what harms its strategic interests and what does not.
After hearing parting assurances of the Sultan about his support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine in the context of the Donbass and the Crimean peninsula belonging to it, Volodya Zelensky bowed his head and left for his homeland, carrying in his beak a contract for the joint production of UAVs. Already at home, he learned new revelations from the Sultan that Crimea is an original Turkish land.
From all of the above, only one conclusion can be drawn - we have problems with Ukraine for a long time. Whoever comes to power in the White House, the West will not let her out of its tenacious embrace. If Biden comes, it will only get worse, Trump will remain, it will not be easier either. In the Ukrainian issue, new interests are appearing in the face of Britain and Turkey, each of which has its own interest in Ukraine, but they also have a common connecting link - SIS Director Richard Moore. And even if our beloved Donald Ibrahimovich remains in the Oval Office, this will not ease our fate, because the intelligence officers of the two countries do not need presidents to come to an agreement, especially when it comes to organizations such as the CIA and the ICU. The CIA is a state in a state that lives its own independent life, and the fact that this truth does not require proof can be judged by the results of the 45th President of the United States - all Trump's attempts to establish relations with the Russian Federation crashed against someone's invisible wall, and all his decisions were sabotaged at the lower levels.
Only one thing is clear - the West plays with Ukraine for a long time, no one is in a hurry, the deceased is equipped on the last journey, stuffed with hexogen, preparing for confrontation at all theaters of operations - at sea, on land and in the air, and is used at the right time as a firebreaker against an aircraft-carrying cruiser RF by sending it to the bochin. If anyone does not understand such a term, then you can use the more modern - "shahid-mobile", the meaning does not change from this, the object's task is to torpedo the target at the cost of its life. It does not matter whether the object wants it or not. His opinion and secret desires are not taken into account here. What to do in this situation of the Russian Federation, I will refrain from advice. I'm just stating facts.