Al-Monitor: Moscow's patience on the Karabakh issue is running out


Relations between Russia and Turkey have ceased to demonstrate a mutual strategic orientation. Ankara has been showing considerable independence for some time now in the Middle East, North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean, and now also in the Caucasus. But because of Nagorno-Karabakh, Moscow's patience may run out, writes the American edition of Al Monitor.


Recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Turkey has never been an ally of Russia. Ankara is only a close partner of Moscow and many issues of cooperation between the parties are of a strategic nature.

First of all, this concerns the multi-billion dollar energy and promising military-industrial cooperation. But this still cannot testify to the "strategic partnership" of the parties, which is implied by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In his view, this is a kind of counterbalance to the West and an opportunity to satisfy Ankara's regional ambitions.

However, according to Turkey itself, Russia is getting in the way of it in Libya and Syria. Moreover, Libya, according to the plan of the Turkish strategists, was to become a kind of springboard for ousting Greece and Cyprus from the Eastern Mediterranean, for whose hydrocarbon resources there is a struggle.

In addition, Ankara is suspicious and wary of Moscow's contacts with Kurds from Syria and Iraq. Also, the Turks are worried and alarmed by the possible holding of joint military exercises between Russia and Egypt in the Black Sea. At the same time, Turkey regularly emphasizes that it does not recognize Crimea as Russian. All this brings disharmony to political component, although economic projects are developing well between countries.

The aggravation of the conflict between Baku and Yerevan in Nagorno-Karabakh over the possession of the region further divides Turkey and Russia. Moscow reacts very painfully to Ankara's actions, as it considers the Transcaucasus to be a sphere of its vital interests. According to the famous Turkish journalist Hakan Aksai, Moscow views the Transcaucasus differently from Syria and Libya.

This is the near abroad - the Russian "backyard". Tensions between Turkey and Russia in connection with the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict could result in a break in ties. Moscow's patience is running out

- specified Aksai.

Russia has already made it clear to Turkey that it should not interfere, especially by military means, in the clarification of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Moscow believes that there can be no military solution to this conflict, therefore it is necessary to go through negotiations.

Thus, there is mistrust in Turkish-Russian relations. According to Turkish observer Mustafa Karaalioglu, there are no prospects for an alliance (union) between Ankara and Moscow.

Initially, it was clear that it was difficult for Russia to call Turkey a friend, ally or partner. At the same time, Ankara initially viewed ties with Moscow as a trump card against Europe and the United States. Now this project has lost its meaning

- explained Karaalioglu.

In turn, former Ambassador Yusuf Buluk noted that the main characteristic of Russian-Turkish relations at all times has been rivalry, not complementarity.

From the point of view of Russia, Turkey, remaining on paper a member of NATO, but gradually moving away from it, is strategically much more valuable than a non-aligned country looking for partners in the CSTO or SCO

- the diplomat is sure.
  • Used photos: http://www.kremlin.ru/
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 29 October 2020 14: 25
    +3
    "Moscow's patience may run out"

    It is necessary to liberate Syria completely and to deal with Libya with the help of Haftar. Then Erdogan will have no time to think about Transcaucasia.
    1. Vladimir_ Voronov (Vladimir) 29 October 2020 14: 32
      +5
      There is a simpler solution - to help the Kurds, and then Erdogan will have no time for ambitions.
      1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
        Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 29 October 2020 17: 19
        +2
        Quote: Vladimir_Voronov
        There is an easier solution - to help the Kurds,

        It is the Kurds who do not let Assad and Russia go beyond Euphrates. Helping them, including against Turkey, is more expensive for us.
        1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
          A.Lex (Secret information) 31 October 2020 10: 59
          +1
          So give the Kurds hope to create their own state ..... however, against the background of such a "dream" they will most likely fight there - there are too many ambitions among various groups, although for us it makes no difference, because the war of all against everyone on the territory of the Turkish entity - the best that can be for Russia.
  2. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 29 October 2020 14: 31
    +1
    Well, how can the Kremlin react, of course painfully, but apart from concerns and appeals for peace, it cannot do anything, the Sultan firmly holds the guarantor for Faberge, but the worst thing is that the strategist himself created this situation. It was necessary to radically suppress all the inclinations of Erdogan even after the downed plane and even more so the murder of the ambassador, it was a test for Putin, but as usual he sat down in the house and demanded an apology like a child
  3. maiman61 Offline maiman61
    maiman61 (Yuri) 29 October 2020 16: 52
    +1
    It's all nonsense! The US will find a way to remove the sultan and install a pro-American leader! And Turkey will again be anti-Russian.
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 29 October 2020 17: 22
      +3
      Quote: maiman61
      The USA will find a way to remove the sultan and install a pro-American leader!

      But Erdogan has seriously thinned the graduates of West Point. In the army now - henchmen of his party. Of course, buying one Turk is easy. But now we have to buy hundreds of high-ranking Turks. And if they only take euros? The dollar will collapse ...
    2. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex (Secret information) 31 October 2020 11: 02
      0
      Jura, and the Turks were NEVER "pro-Russian"!
  4. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 29 October 2020 17: 36
    -2
    Bullshit is all that.
    In fact, the Turks are letting our planes into Syria with cargo. So, what kind of partnership is needed. What the authorities say at times.
    And the rest - HPP and fantasy zhurnalyug - of course amerovsky.
  5. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 29 October 2020 17: 52
    -4
    V. Putin spoke in favor of Turkey's participation in the negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh.
  6. Articus picus Offline Articus picus
    Articus picus (Articus Picus) 29 October 2020 19: 22
    -3
    Is it possible that the events in Karabakh are concerted actions of Baku, Ankara and Moscow?
  7. Articus picus Offline Articus picus
    Articus picus (Articus Picus) 29 October 2020 19: 25
    0
    Could Moscow give its consent to this?
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 29 October 2020 19: 30
      -2
      I've been talking about this for almost a month now
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 29 October 2020 19: 47
        0
        The main task of Russia is to prevent the domination of the West in the South Caucasus. Including Turkey.
        Armenia headed for the West. No matter what they say, Pashinyan is not Soros. This is the choice of the Armenian people. The crowd threw him into the prime minister's chair. That is, the people of Armenia. What would Russia have? Georgia and Armenia are anti-Russian. Plus neutral Azerbaijan. And how long would he be neutral?
        Having started the Karabakh adventure in 1988, Armenia ceased to be a subject of international relations. As well as Azerbaijan. It became possible to manipulate Armenia and Azerbaijan using Karabakh. But Pashinyan is "not a head." In principle, he does not understand such things.
        Armenia is being revived using the Azerbaijani army. But Armenia cannot completely lose either. It is not profitable for Russia. Now an understanding has matured in Armenia that they cannot survive without Russia. So, the drift of Armenia to the West can be said to be stopped. But it is not profitable for Russia to spoil relations with Azerbaijan (and Turkey) either.
        Consequently, it is necessary to freeze the conflict for a certain number of years. Russia is behaving competently. The deployment of Russian border guards along the Azerbaijan-Armenia border guarantees peace on this border. To give Armenia a carrot, the Russian peacekeepers must take control of the Lachin corridor. But Azerbaijan already controls this route. So far, only by fire. I would suggest a joint Azerbaijani-Russian patrol. It is like a bone in the throat of Armenia, but it is a guarantee that Karabakh will not lose contact with Armenia.
        My forecast is that Azerbaijan will also regain Aghdam and that's it. Russia will not allow further progress. Karabakh (most of it) will remain under Armenia. But it will already be a suitcase without a handle. There is no defense, no army, infrastructure destroyed, no funds for reconstruction. Armenia is completely under the control of Russia. And with Azerbaijan, profitable economic projects. I. Aliyev can report on the victory. He will become the national leader who reclaimed five occupied areas in a month. N. Pashinyan can report on the victory. He personally stopped the entire Azerbaijani army in front of Lachin. Vladimir Putin is satisfied in the Kremlin. Russian peacekeepers are on the border of both states, and no West is visible here.
        And further negotiations can be conducted for another ten years.
        By the way, Erdogan can also be pleased. Turkey's role in Azerbaijan was assessed and cooperation will continue.
        ---
        The final victory of one side is not beneficial to anyone. Even the "winning" side.
        1. Articus picus Offline Articus picus
          Articus picus (Articus Picus) 29 October 2020 20: 15
          0
          Thank you for your opinion.
        2. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
          A.Lex (Secret information) 31 October 2020 11: 04
          0
          The main task of Russia is to prevent the domination of the West in the South Caucasus.

          Yeah .... but Turkey is not a member of this very "united west" ... Well, well ...
          1. Bakht Offline Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 31 October 2020 11: 14
            0
            Including Turkey.

            Did I miss Turkey?
  8. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 29 October 2020 19: 48
    0
    Karabakh is beautiful, Sterligov hung out there recently, made flour, sold it at the bazaar ...
    And what, a normal man, now in his estate at fairs of organic products, a party, please be so kind ... Bran loaf 600 rub. Like all the supplies from the counters, but there was everything, from many regions, they dared, they didn't even have enough ... Face control at the entrance-entrance, businessmen shob in boots, ladies in scarves and dresses on the floor ... Parking, photo report in the internet, in I also saw it, the gelding of Maybach is driving and the Lamborghini is kicking, others were on Robinsons, but what, pathetic ...)))
  9. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 29 October 2020 20: 18
    -1
    Putin announced: liberate 5 regions, then 2 regions and a certain regime of the Nagorno-Karabakh zone

    https://haqqin.az/news/192726
  10. Radikal Offline Radikal
    Radikal 29 October 2020 20: 24
    +2
    Quote: Oyo Sarkazmi
    Quote: Vladimir_Voronov
    There is an easier solution - to help the Kurds,

    It is the Kurds who do not let Assad and Russia go beyond Euphrates. Helping them, including against Turkey, is more expensive for us.

    And before it was necessary to deal with the Kurds, before the Americans bought them! And then they crumpled the Faberge, played games with Erdogan, played out .... Profane in everything - in politics, economics, and ... intelligence. Who will seriously deal with the successors of the treacherous policy of Gorbachev-Yeltsin? The USSR would quickly resolve the issue with the Kurds, so that Janissary would tear his hair in all places, hiding in Ankara! sad
    1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex (Secret information) 31 October 2020 11: 06
      0
      The problem is that the Kurds were bought by amers long ago!
  11. Radikal Offline Radikal
    Radikal 31 October 2020 11: 08
    0
    Quote: A.Lex
    The problem is that the Kurds were bought by amers long ago!

    They were bought by them after the USSR died. And before that, the Soviet Union had close ties with the Kurdistan Workers' Party. Like this. hi