Does it often happen that the date is known exactly in advance when the socialeconomic a model of an entire state? In the case of our country, the deadline falls on 2050, but the clock will start its relentless countdown from 2030. However, they are already ticking.
As you know, about two-thirds of the federal budget of the Russian Federation is formed from the income of the oil and gas sector. The country is firmly on the pipe, and endless talks about diversifying the economy remain just talk. Soon we will be forcibly removed from the notorious "oil and gas needle", and the big question is what Russia will then be left with.
The preparatory work on the transfer of their economies to carbon-neutral fuels has been carried out by the leading powers for a long time. In Europe, the project was named Green Deal, and it is compared in terms of cost and significance for the entire planet with the landing of American astronauts on the moon. According to this program, by 2050, greenhouse gas emissions from economic activities in the EU should be zero. This will require a complete restructuring of the industry, infrastructure, transfer of houses to modern heating systems, transfer to vehicles that operate without exhaust into the atmosphere. As the costs of European corporations increase, Brussels intends to protect them by introducing increased duties on the import of foreign products.
In the Old World, Germany will skim the cream off this, which is going to combine the "greening" of the economy with the promotion of the interests of its industrialists. Berlin has adopted a "National Hydrogen Strategy", in which 9 billion euros will be spent on the transition to a new type of fuel. The scheme is simple: Germany sets some new standards for "green energy" and at the same time intends to make money on the sale of equipment to everyone who will be forced to work on them. As a matter of fact, this is directly written about in the specified document:
Germany intends to position itself as a leading supplier of green hydrogen of technologies to the world market.
It is worth explaining that "green hydrogen" is a product of simple seawater electrolysis, produced with the help of "green energy", namely, wind energy and other renewable sources. Here, giant German wind farms will be used with might and main, floating wind turbines are being designed. Berlin is making the most of its own "green" infrastructure, the low efficiency of which we once ridiculed so-called "experts".
This is very bad for Russia. news... We also have the ability to obtain hydrogen, but it will be “blue” or “turquoise”. It will not be easy to convert existing gas pipelines of Gazprom to hydrogen either, due to the phenomenon of stress corrosion. Alternative “green energy” in our country, which could be used in the production of the “green hydrogen” required by the Germans, is almost completely absent. The government has already fussed with the adoption of the hydrogen energy development program until 2024, but experts who have familiarized themselves with it note the lack of specifics.
Nor does Russia have much hope for the eastern markets. China also intends to squeeze the most out of "decarbonization". By 2050, Beijing will invest 15 trillion dollars in restructuring the country's energy sector. On the development and implementation of relevant technologies, 2% of the gigantic GDP of the Celestial Empire will be spent annually. The Chinese economy will receive a new drive for its development, and additional highly qualified jobs will appear. Analysts point out that the start of China's real transition to new types of fuel should be expected by 2030. Japan follows the same path.
So far, Europe is not going to completely abandon Russian hydrocarbons. The share of oil and gas consumption will steadily decline during the entire transition period, and with them our federal budget revenues. How the government intends to tackle the problem further is a big question.