Why Armenia was unable to repeat the victory over Azerbaijan

October 28 2020 28

A month has passed since the start of a new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. It can already be stated that Yerevan is strategically losing to Baku. The Armenian leadership firmly believed that it could "repeat" at any moment. I couldn't. Let's try to figure out why, and what conclusions should be drawn from this to other "repeaters".

Armenia's main problem was that it rested on the laurels of the 1994 victory and was ready for the war of the past. However, Azerbaijan and the Turkey behind it imposed a new generation of war on Yerevan. What has changed over the past quarter century?

On the one hand, with the help of Ankara, Baku was able to create objectively the strongest army in Transcaucasia, saturated with modern Turkish, Israeli and, by the way, Russian weapons. In the Karabakh conflict, shock UAVs destroying combat machinery and air defense systems, have become a very powerful argument, compensating for the weakness of traditional aviation. Turkish operational-tactical drones TB-2, carrying four "smart" missiles, knock out targets, being outside the range of the Armenian air defense of a small radius. The Israeli Harop kamikaze drone was able to destroy the vaunted Russian S-300 air defense system.

As a bait, the Azerbaijani army uses UAVs, created on the basis of the old An-2 transport aircraft. It is not hard to guess that Baku makes extensive use of the recommendations of the Turkish military, who have already worked out the tactics of using drones against the Syrian government army near Saraqib. Undoubtedly, Ankara also analyzed the experience of countering the air defense of the Russian airbase Khmeimim against a swarm of UAVs produced by pro-Turkish militants.

In addition, the Azerbaijani army has radically changed its tactics. Instead of pushing ahead in the central sector, she binds the enemy with an artillery duel, forcing him to keep large forces in this direction. Under the leadership of Turkish advisers, Azerbaijanis are waging mobile warfare, carrying out constant redeployments and fully owning the operational initiative. As a result, the Armenians mostly sit out in a passive defense, retreat and lose ground. The modest size of their army is not enough to organize mobile defense.

On the other hand, Yerevan is largely to blame for this situation:

At first, the government of "people's" Prime Minister Pashinyan curtailed contacts with Moscow through military intelligence and staged a purge in its military department, firing officers trained in Russia under various pretexts. The result was not slow to show itself. The Armenian Ministry of Defense missed the concentration of Azerbaijani troops on the border, held under the pretext of a summer aggravation.

Secondly, Yerevan ignored the newest fads in military affairs, namely, the widespread use of shock UAVs. Armenia, unlike Azerbaijan, did not invest in the acquisition of drones, nor did it update the air defense system, which is designed to combat the threats of the past generation. Now their "Wasps" and "Cubas", represented in Nagorno-Karabakh, are unable to reliably restrain Turkish and Israeli drones with all the ensuing results.

And, finally, there are the traditional shapkozidny moods. It is very dangerous when the new generation lives with the thought that since their "fathers fought", and therefore they will automatically defeat all "with one left" and calmly reach Berlin, sorry, to Baku. Reality can be discouraging if you are not prepared for it. Very serious conclusions should be drawn from this whole situation, and not only in Armenia, but also in Russia.

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amateur

-3

28 October 2020 13: 37

The Israeli Harop kamikaze drone was able to destroy the vaunted Russian S-300 air defense system.

Another adherent of the Israeli-American military-industrial complex.
1. Marzhecki
  
  +2
  
  29 October 2020 09: 03
  
  stupid and unfounded conclusion
123

+3

28 October 2020 14: 24
Let's try to figure out why, and what conclusions should be drawn from this for other "repeaters".

It is useful to draw conclusions for everyone, including the "all-propans"

The modest size of their army is not enough to organize mobile defense.

For mobile defense, fewer numbers are required, because there is no need to keep the defense along the entire front.

So, what conclusions should we draw?

The government of the "people's" Prime Minister Pashinyan cut off contacts with Moscow through military intelligence and staged a purge in its military department, firing officers who were trained in Russia under various pretexts.

What does this have to do with us? Are we cleaning or cutting?

The result was not slow to show itself. The Armenian Ministry of Defense missed the concentration of Azerbaijani troops on the border, held under the pretext of a summer aggravation.

Excuse my curiosity, where does this information come from?

Yerevan has ignored the newest epidemics in military affairs, namely, the widespread use of shock UAVs. Armenia, unlike Azerbaijan, did not invest in the acquisition of drones, nor did it update the air defense system, which is designed to combat the threats of the past generation. Now their "Wasps" and "Cubas", represented in Nagorno-Karabakh, are unable to reliably restrain Turkish and Israeli drones with all the ensuing results.

Yerevan did not ignore anything, they just have much less money. Something is available, for example they do this:

We invest a lot in air defense and electronic warfare, the situation in Armenia is not at all similar to ours.

And, finally, there are the traditional shapkozidny moods. It is very dangerous when the new generation lives with the thought that since their "fathers fought", and therefore they will automatically defeat all "with one left" and calmly reach Berlin, sorry, to Baku. Reality can be discouraging if you are not prepared for it. Very serious conclusions should be drawn from this whole situation, and not only in Armenia, but also in Russia.

In general, in my opinion, the attempt to draw parallels between Armenia and Russia has failed. Another far-fetched attempt to blacken the equal sign between Armenia and Russia, Belarus and Armenia, and so on. they say something happened to them, it means we have the same thing.
What about lost polymers? Are these sentiments less traditional? The new generation should be proud of the deeds of their grandfathers and be ready not only to repeat but also surpass. After all, it is not enough to reach Berlin, you have to fly and sail to Washington.
We are peaceful people, but our armored train stands on a siding.
And it is useful to draw conclusions, including for various types of oppositionists (this also applies to journalists). For example, take into account the experience of Bolivia. The pro-American coup there essentially ended in nothing. The junta suffered a crushing defeat in the elections. By the way, Bolivian lithium is now questionable for Musk, and the Russians are mining it in Chile.
But we have no lines about this. All articles about how everything is bad with us, "they are laying around us", "setting fire to the perimeter" and so on. None of the authors will dare to cast a shadow on the hegemordor and the failure of his policy in his "backyard"
The regime is not viable without popular support. It would be nice to finally understand this. Your subversive activities are not doomed to failure.
1. Krasnodar
  
  +4
  
  29 October 2020 07: 24
  
  An article that the army must be trained in accordance with the latest world trends, and not live a glorious past. Since 1982, electronic warfare and air defense have not shown anything new and revolutionary, unlike air attack weapons, respectively, it is necessary to invest in UAVs and the Air Force.
  1. Marzhecki
    
    +1
    
    29 October 2020 09: 11
    
    Quite right. But our "tridvaraz" performs in his repertoire, works out, writes comments for money from morning to evening.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  2. 123
    
    +3
    
    29 October 2020 11: 33
    
    An article that the army must be trained in accordance with the latest world trends, and not live a glorious past. Since 1982, electronic warfare and air defense have not shown anything new and revolutionary, unlike air attack weapons, respectively, it is necessary to invest in UAVs and the Air Force.
    
    Who told you such nonsense? UAVs show "revolutionary" results only where there is no suitable air defense and electronic warfare. As a rule, these are low-speed and small-sized aircraft, and electronics remain a vulnerable spot. Electronic warfare turns them into a bunch of spare parts and electronics. Ask where the same Iran takes samples to create its UAVs The same Turkish "Standard Bearers", in fact, is a reduced unmanned copy of a pleasure plane, there are no special problems for the destruction of such "airplanes", naturally in the presence of air defense and electronic warfare.
    The development of the armed forces must be balanced; it is necessary to develop both air defense and electronic warfare (for defense) and UAVs (for attack). They have completely different tasks and purposes.
    1. Krasnodar
      
      0
      
      1 November 2020 09: 42
      
      Iran has a drone as a result of a technical breakdown of a UAV - it cannot burn out electronic warfare))
      1. 123
        
        +2
        
        1 November 2020 16: 15
        
        Iran has a drone as a result of a technical breakdown of a UAV - it cannot burn out electronic warfare))
        
        Why burn? It is enough to interrupt the connection and take over control.
        
        Krasnodar
        
        0
        
        3 November 2020 01: 42
        
        This is impossible - in case of interference, it switches to a spare channel, then to the next one, and so on ad infinitum
        Someone else's interference for a split second is a hindrance
        
        123
        
        +3
        
        3 November 2020 02: 51
        
        This is impossible - in case of interference, it switches to a spare channel, then to the next one, and so on ad infinitum
        Someone else's interference for a split second is a hindrance
        
        You can call these Kremlin propagandists , explain that this is not possible
2. Marzhecki
  
  +1
  
  29 October 2020 09: 05
  
  Quote: 123
  The regime is not viable without popular support. It would be nice to finally understand this. Your subversive activities are not doomed to failure.
  
  I agree with the first. I laughed at the second thesis
  1. 123
    
    +1
    
    29 October 2020 11: 44
    
    I agree with the first. I laughed at the second thesis
    
    We agree, but do not draw conclusions. Will you continue your subversive activities?
3. Marzhecki
  
  0
  
  29 October 2020 09: 06
  
  Quote: 123
  In general, in my opinion, the attempt to draw parallels between Armenia and Russia has failed. Another far-fetched attempt to blacken the equal sign between Armenia and Russia, Belarus and Armenia, and so on. they say something happened to them, it means we have the same thing.
  
  This is just a private opinion of an anonymous Internet troll.
  1. 123
    
    +2
    
    29 October 2020 11: 35
    
    This is just a private opinion of an anonymous Internet troll.
    
    Naturally, you have not found other arguments? This is expected After all, you have no real justification for the written nonsense All that remains is to spit and call names
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov
      
      -3
      
      29 October 2020 12: 34
      
      123 ... I read your opuses in opposition to the article, and various thoughts expressed led to objections, for example: that electronic warfare is a panacea against UAVs - against homemade products, yes, against advanced protected ones, no longer. Something did not find a sufficient connection between the lithium from Chile, enriching some oligarchs, in relation to the modern air defense of the Russian Federation and to repelling the strikes of loitering ammunition and other shock UAVs. In the situation of today's air defense of the Russian Federation, the means of destruction are more expensive than the cheap means to be hit and by ORDERS are fewer in number. When conducting a longer confrontation, the air defense reserves will run out faster with all the consequences (talking about many hundreds of shock barrage ammunition and other things, these are already today's opportunities). These are the main points you do not take into account ... And the fact that the RF Armed Forces do not have mass unmanned aerial vehicles AT ALL, the deafening alarm siren should sound for a long time, only civilian firefighters at the head of the RF Armed Forces act on the principle of losing Armenians, improving Soviet weapons ... Meanwhile, the first quarter of the 21st century ends ...
      1. 123
        
        +3
        
        29 October 2020 15: 39
        
        I read your opuses in opposition to the article, and various thoughts expressed led to objections, for example: that electronic warfare is a panacea against UAVs - against homemade products, yes, against advanced protected ones, no longer.
        
        As a constant devoted reader, you might know that I didn't say that. The panacea is a myth. Nobody can give a 100% guarantee. An effective use of UAVs is possible only in the absence of a modern integrated air defense and electronic warfare system, or can you give a reverse example? What are these "advanced and secure" UAVs? The Turks, for example, assemble their own from ordinary civilian spare parts. If the American ones fit this definition, how to explain it?
        
        https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1215/Exclusive-Iran-hijacked-US-drone-says-Iranian-engineer
        
        In the situation of today's air defense of the Russian Federation, the means of destruction are more expensive than the cheap means to be hit, and by ORDERS are fewer. When conducting a longer confrontation, the air defense reserves will run out faster with all the consequences (talking about many hundreds of shock barrage ammunition and other things, these are already today's opportunities). These are the main points you do not take into account ...
        
        The UAV has the main advantage - the absence of a pilot, hence the following, in which case the losses are only financial, reduced dimensions and low cost. If with the help of electronic warfare to limit the arrival of a signal, the application is theoretically possible only in autonomous mode, according to a previously entered program (provided that the electronics are protected from exposure). This dramatically reduces the efficiency of use and such devices, by definition, cannot be cheap. They require at least inertial navigation systems. Not many countries are capable of producing such devices. Therefore, what kind of mass character can we talk about?
        As for ammunition, there is some truth here, most are designed for larger targets and "firing a cannon at sparrows" is not even economically effective. But there is some progress in this direction, for example, a new small-sized rocket has been developed for the Pantsir, 4 missiles are placed in a standard container. In general, we have the means of countering drones and work in this direction is going on.
        
        And the fact that the RF Armed Forces do not AT ALL have massive unmanned aerial vehicles, so the deafening alarm siren should sound for a long time, only civil firefighters at the head of the RF Armed Forces act on the principle of losing Armenians, improving Soviet weapons ... And in the meantime, the first quarter ends 21 century ...
        
        Here, of course, you are right, there is a lag in the strike UAVs, Russia is catching up. But work is underway, Orion has been modernized and now it can be not only reconnaissance but also strike, we are waiting for serial deliveries to the troops.
        
        https://rg.ru/2020/10/26/pervyj-peredannyj-v-vojska-bpla-orion-pokazali-na-video.html
        
        The engine for a larger drone was recently shown, and work is ongoing on the Hunter. In general, not quite a bleak prospect. This is partly due to the fact that they produce everything themselves, it is not an option to buy components from Canadians with Austrians as Turks.
        I do not agree with nonsense about "firemen improving Soviet weapons" and not doing anything new. You just expressed yourself on emotions, there is no real confirmation of this thesis.
        There are still 5 years before the end of the first quarter of the XNUMXst century. By then everything will be fine.
passing by

+1

28 October 2020 15: 05

It's just that the Armenians were preparing to stab Azerbaijan in the back in 1994. This time the number did not work.
Kuramori Reika

+3

28 October 2020 15: 11

In order for the country's army to win, it must be financed accordingly. To do this, you need not only a responsible leadership that has excluded gorlopanov from its structure, but also an adequate economy. To have an economy, students must study at institutes, and not buy diplomas for a small fee; the population should respect the laws of their country, and not wipe their feet on it; and the structure of budgetary expenditures should be proportionate to needs. What of this was in modern Armenia?
1. Oyo Sarkazmi
  
  0
  
  28 October 2020 22: 01
  
  Quote: Kuramori Reika
  excluding the gorlopanov from its structure,
  
  The Armenians have contrived to have bad relations with everyone. Okay, Azerbaijan. Hasn't healed yet. But with Turkey, Iran, and, more recently, with Russia. Kim Jong Un with Juche is greatly surprised by like-minded people ...
  1. isofat
    
    0
    
    28 October 2020 22: 27
    
    Quote: Oo sarcasm
    The Armenians have contrived to have bad relations with everyone.
    
    At the end of the VIII century BC, five-sixths of the Jews completely disappeared - 10 out of 12 ethnos-forming clans. They have been looking for them for 2500 years, and sometimes they are found in the most unexpected places.
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi
      
      0
      
      29 October 2020 08: 58
      
      Only there were no Jews at that time yet, for Judaism arose on the territory of modern Jordan in the 6th century. BC e., and fully took shape by the 4th century. BC e.
Hayer31

0

28 October 2020 23: 12

The author is wrong, firstly, there was no purge, the minister and the chief of staff were dismissed, the minister was civilian and early. The General Staff was from the Sargsyan clan and he was not a regular military officer. And the old generals who bowed to Sargsyan and took part in kickbacks ignored new technologies and the smart ones were fired. And how Pashinyan became an example, they immediately bought TOR2M. And the Armenian army has always sent its personnel to study in Russia,
And the exchange of data has always been. And the main failure is the fact that they did not believe in Armenia and in (Russia, too, I hope) that the wine will start again.
1. Marzhecki
  
  0
  
  29 October 2020 09: 08
  
  Quote: Hayer31
  The author is wrong, firstly, there was no purge, the minister and chief of staff were dismissed, the minister was civilian and early. The General Staff was from the Sargsyan clan and he was not a regular military officer.
  
  Actually, this is called cleaning. The purge is not only a demonstrative shooting at the wall, as is commonly believed among the liberal public.
Ganja

0

28 October 2020 23: 24

What is happening now is the lessons of the first Karabakh conflict. And in the first war, what is called the betrayal of everyone happened, of course, except for ordinary Azerbaijanis of all that was Soviet. Ordinary Armenians collected money for Miatsum (unification of Karabakh to Armenia) and this took place under the auspices of the AAC (Armenian Apostolic Church) and the Moscow authorities (where there were many Armenians in leadership positions or their sidekicks) and the money went to terrorist organizations such as Asal and Krunk. A monument to some kind of genocide in Yerevan, because the children were taken there and said "the Turks are our enemies" and when asked where the Turks pointed to the Azerbaijanis. Of course, the KGB knew about this, but they turned a blind eye, that was a capricious act. Conducted by the Armenians under the patronage of the same AAC, the shameful "bed diplomacy" when Armenian girls who married Azerbaijani guys, the girl's relatives used their sons-in-law for the same sordid plans. As you know, international mixed marriages were welcomed in the USSR, and this was a plus, as the Armenian Natsiks, using their connections in Moscow, put pressure on Baku for the promotion of their sons-in-law, and as a result, at the time of the collapse of the USSR, there were already ready intelligence or traitors, or whatever you want to call it. that many Armenian women refused to do this for the sake of their families and cut off ties with their relatives in Armenia and Karabakh. This is one of the reasons why many thousands of Armenian women live in such marriages in Azerbaijan today. Would you like an example, please. During the shelling of the city of Ganja on October 11, one of such brave women, Karina Grigoryan, was wounded, and finally it is time for the Russians to understand that these people, in general, can betray especially men at any moment. The last example was the USSR, the first was known a long time ago right before our era in Parthia, then there was Mithridate, Byzantium, Persians, the same Ottomans
1. rotkiv04
  
  0
  
  29 October 2020 12: 10
  
  yes, you are all traitors, both Armenians and Azerbaijanis, you only respect the whip and no matter whose it is Turkish, Russian or American, it is a pity that Putin and Co. are constantly imposing their friendship on you, but you need to be kicked in your head and in your corners
  1. Ganja
    
    -1
    
    31 October 2020 21: 53
    
    Whose cow would moan, but you Russians were the first to betray the Soviet Union. Perhaps you have forgotten the antics of Gorbach and the Siberian guy Yeltsin, if I name everyone, you will remain in debt.
abdulhamid

0

29 October 2020 21: 19

Why was Armenia unable to repeat the victory over Azerbaijan? Because it was not Armenia that won the last time. Can you guess who?
Ivancarafuto

+1

1 November 2020 11: 34

The Pashinyan government made a "mistake" that all Americanophiles make - "Uncle Sam is not afraid of us after us, an aircraft carrier will sail and punish everyone ..."