Battle Lost: What "Post-War Armenia" Will Look Like


The Karabakh conflict continues. Despite the pacifying talks at the highest level, meetings of foreign ministers and several ceasefires announced and immediately broken. All participants and observers of the process call on the warring parties to peace, but ... somehow sluggishly ...


One gets the impression that they decided to let this long-ripening "abscess" of Transcaucasia completely drain out, since it burst anyway ... To cleanse this old wound, so to speak ...

All in different ways parse the fresh speech of our president at Valdai - ... what did he mean by that? ... And what is hidden behind this phrase? But regarding Karabakh, Turkey and everything around it, the President, in my opinion, spoke quite unambiguously. But his words can in no way be considered in isolation from what he does in practice. In particular, on another "Turkish front" - in Syria. From his last words and actions it follows exactly:

a) We are not going to quarrel with Turkey over the Karabakh problems as long as Turkey remains where it is now, even with all the negative factors already taking place. At the same time, this is a signal to the Turks so that they do not soar in their desires and appreciate what they have.

b) Armenia, and most importantly, no one will help its regime until the troops of the third state try to enter Armenian territory directly. And this, as we all understand, is unlikely to happen - Aliyev is too smart to make such mistakes.

c) The conflict will most likely be allowed to “burn out”, no matter how cynical it may sound from the point of view of the human lives of the participants. But here for the Russian Federation this is even a very specific question about whether it is worth giving funds and, most importantly, the lives of its citizens, in exchange for the lives of citizens of foreign states, even without having a clear idea of ​​the end to which this whole drama should lead ... But there are more than enough negative consequences, and they are all known in advance.

What follows from this if I am right with the above? I don't know how the issue of Karabakh itself will finally be resolved. Most likely, the calculation is not the impossibility of ethnic cleansing in modern Azerbaijan, there will be something like autonomy or, in the worst case, a "frozen" conflict within a country like Transnistria or Kosovo. How close and whether Azerbaijan will become closer to Turkey after all this is also difficult to say. But with Armenia, everything will be relatively simple. Despite the victorious reports from both belligerents, Azerbaijan increasingly believes in a real victory. In addition, the Azerbaijani troops, being superior in strength in all respects, operate on their territory and, according to all existing legal articles, lawfully. Without provoking the Russian Federation and the CSTO, Aliyev will carefully squeeze the Armenian troops out of his territory and stop at the border.

In general, by the way, it is not very clear why, when the CSTO is mentioned, assistance is expected specifically and exclusively from the Russian Federation? There are several states in this organization, and everyone is obliged to protect one of the members in the event of aggression, as well as to resolve the issue of participation in a particular conflict, as well as jointly and bear the burden of all the corresponding consequences of such actions.

The CSTO will not intervene, no one will attack a member of the organization and did not intend to. But Armenia will still face a lost war, albeit on a foreign territory, followed by massive discontent within the country and, as a result, a crisis and a change of power. That is, Pashinyan will definitely be removed, and in about the same way as he appeared. I don’t know how adequate such a comparison is, but, in my opinion, Pashinyan is such a “Tikhanovskaya, who did everything right away” at one time, therefore there was no abroad, radicalization and a sharp change of course. Although, under his control, Armenia farther and farther and "moved to the West." Not abruptly.

Now is the time to think about what role Russia will play in all this - it will again silently reconcile itself with another hostile “king” in the post-Soviet space or actively participate in the establishment of a new Armenian leadership, taking into account its own interests. There are all the tools for this, including power tools right on the spot. All these speeches by Vladimir Vladimirovich about the fragility of young post-Soviet democracies and their regimes are, of course, wonderful, but we all see what they instantly turn into, falling into the zone of influence of our enemies - into rabid mongrels splashing with russophobia saliva right at our doorstep. So which is better? And continue to breed evil mad dogs around you or insert them into these regimes, if they are so fragile and have not grown stronger in thirty years of independent existence, a strong iron rod, by force and from the outside, so that they do not fall apart?

The USSR, just twenty years after its revolutionary education and the accompanying devastation and degradation, entered the most terrible war in history with the most powerful enemy in history, and withstood, won! And here, you see, thirty years of peace, independence and democracy, and all of them are still fragile ... This means they failed, and enough to experiment with this - it's too expensive, the lives of entire generations of our people are "at stake." Especially if there is a threat that these experiments of neighbors may result in themselves and us to the detriment of, and only to the benefit of someone overseas again and again. And there is such a threat, it is quite real. Moreover, there is already a very real experience of its implementation.

Nikol Pashinyan and those who are behind him and who pulled him to this post are naturally negative figures for Russia. Apparently, they turned out to be negative for Armenia's neighbors. Otherwise it is difficult to explain what is happening now - the parties simply refuse to come to an agreement. Moreover, Pashinyan, constantly shouting out some slogans, clearly does not know what, even in theory, he can agree with Azerbaijanis and what to offer them, and Aliyev simply does not see the point in a serious conversation with Pashinyan, not counting him as responsible and strong political figure. And now, if now, having given the Azerbaijani army to clear its own territory, Russia starts to speak out for Armenia (here “for” not in the sense of on its side, but in the sense instead of), and it will present Azerbaijan with acceptable conditions for stopping the conflict, then later so we will and will speak “for” Armenia. And practically any conditions in this situation will be acceptable for Azerbaijan, because they will be, in fact, Azerbaijani - Armenia, having lost the war, will simply not be able to seriously demand anything, and any way out to meet Azerbaijan will be interpreted as a success. And the success of Russia in this case, and all the power of media propaganda that we have must be connected to this. And if Armenia as a result enters the tough zone of influence of the Russian Federation, then this will only become an additional guarantee of security for Karabakh itself, in whatever form its existence further takes shape.

Moreover, based on all recent international events, the most powerful regional players and neighbors of Armenia - Turkey and Iran - are also unlikely to support the establishment of a purely pro-Western regime in this country. It cannot be said that they will be very happy with the pro-Russian regime - for them it would be best "about their own", but for the impossibility they will have to choose "from two evils." And the Russian presence in the region is already a familiar thing, somehow we have lived with it for so many years without conflict. What can not be said about the West at the moment - a serious split is clearly deepening among the Turks and the Persians with the "world of developed democracy". Iran has an old one, Turkey has a new one.

As for the directly personal specifics of the new Armenian government, it is quite possible that at the initial post-war stage it should be generally solved by importing from outside - there are also enough educated, capable and patriotic representatives of the Armenian people in Russia. And then, having made a deep cleaning of the local “sorosyatnik”, it is possible to start educating a new elite on the spot.

And this should be done not only in Armenia. Otherwise, we will voluntarily give ourselves up soon to be devoured by the rabid dogs that surrounded us from all sides - our former "fragile" neighbors, to whom we have treated so carefully and carefully for three decades ...
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  • Photos used: Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia
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  1. bear040 Offline bear040
    bear040 1 November 2020 10: 38
    12
    Before going into foreign countries, Putin needs to put things in order in the Russian Federation itself and how to pinch the tail of home-grown separatists, in Tatarstan and beyond. According to article 280 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, it has long been necessary to begin concretely and rigidly put on bunks.
    1. goncharov.62 Offline goncharov.62
      goncharov.62 (Andrei) 1 November 2020 14: 35
      +5
      All this must be done in parallel. For you may not be in time. And to wait for the GDP to pinch the tail of the Chubais-Kudrin and Company - the loss is unambiguous.
    2. Bitter Offline Bitter
      Bitter (Gleb) 1 November 2020 18: 08
      +1
      ... you need to put things in order in the Russian Federation itself and pinch it properly ...

      What for? These are "their" home-grown scoundrels, they regularly play their role and maintain a certain intensity in the battle for true democracy.
    3. The comment was deleted.
  2. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 1 November 2020 10: 38
    +3
    Repetition of the message from October 4th. A month ago.

    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 October 2020 15:49

    These are all emotions. The most reasonable option was proposed by H. Aliyev 20 years ago. The first and necessary condition is that Armenia liberates the occupied regions. Moreover, H. Aliyev agreed to 6 out of 7. After that, the negotiation process begins. Moreover without outside players... Two safety circles are created. The small circle is Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia. Solve their problems. The big circle is guarantors and arbitrators - Russia, Iran, Turkey. And no external players who are sitting far away.
    1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 1 November 2020 14: 52
      +2
      Bakhtiyar, all this is so ... But you understand that these, who are sitting "beyond the distant lands" and the seas, will interfere anyway, even if no one calls them anywhere. Therefore, initially it is better to work with this in mind.
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 1 November 2020 16: 02
        +5
        Initially, it is better to work with those who live here and will live. Recently, Iran has become more active. In principle, it offers the same thing as Russia. This knot must be untied or cut and the topic closed.
        Just imagine the symbolism of the event. Meeting of the Big Three in Tehran. And that's all. There is no West.
        1. Bitter Offline Bitter
          Bitter (Gleb) 1 November 2020 18: 12
          0
          ... imagine the symbolism of the event. Meeting of the Big Three in Tehran. And that's all. There is no West.

          Well, yes, everyone has already either flew to consultations or, as it is fashionable today, they have been conducted via the Internet.
          It seems like there is no one, and the ears stick out.
        2. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
          Pishenkov (Alexey) 2 November 2020 13: 00
          0
          If you mean Putin, Erdogan, Khomeini, then this troika is hardly possible without Comrade Xi ... If we are talking about the West having a rest ... wink
          1. Bakht Offline Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 2 November 2020 13: 47
            +2
            Comrade Xi is not needed in this region. The whole idea is to remove from here those who are far away.
            Let Comrade Xi understand the South China Sea. And in Taiwan.
            1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
              Pishenkov (Alexey) 2 November 2020 14: 57
              +1
              Well ... one can argue ... If we are talking about "turning off" the West, then it will not work without it. In addition, it is impossible to discount that comrade. Xi is very strong influence. Especially Iran. The region is in the zone of his direct interests - the "Silk Road", and the expansion of Turkish influence further to the East is not at all in the Chinese interests. And if the Russian Federation can offer both sides of the conflict something from the point of view of security guarantees, then the PRC from the side of the economy or the same medicine ... And also the Turks from the Chinese, if anything, definitely have more to offer in return for more accommodating behavior and in a situation of conflict with the West.
              1. Bakht Offline Bakht
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 2 November 2020 15: 04
                +3
                China is firmly in Iran. And in economics and military matters. Also, China has quite promising plans for Azerbaijan. They are already working here. But to this day, China has not climbed into the political showdown of those countries where it has economic interests. Perhaps this will change over time. But at the moment, China is not interested. The expansion of economic influence over Turkey is just in line with the Chinese economic model. "One belt-one road" implicitly presupposes the dominance of Chinese interests along the entire "path".
                In this particular situation, China has nothing to do with the conflict in Karabakh. Nobody invited him to participate in the development of decisions and he himself did not show any activity in this regard.
                I am an adherent of the very model that I have voiced more than once. The three South Caucasian states are solving their problems through negotiations and consultations. But not a war. And the closest regional heavyweights act as arbiters and guarantors of the decisions made. And they prevent war. This, in my opinion, is the ONLY format for solving the problem at the moment. Anything else will not suit anyone.
                1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
                  Pishenkov (Alexey) 3 November 2020 17: 03
                  0
                  Three South Caucasian states

                  - will this be the "Big Three" in your opinion? This while the West is resting ??? Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia ???
                  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
                    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 November 2020 17: 35
                    +2
                    Azerbaijan-Armenia-Georgia is a small three.
                    Russia-Turkey-Iran is the big three.
                    The small three can meet in Tbilisi. The big one is in Tehran.

                    I have written about this more than once. And, as I recall, it was you who rejected this idea. But I don't see another one yet. The alternative is the western bases in the South Caucasus. Moreover, in Armenia and Georgia they are American, and in Azerbaijan they are Turkish.
                    1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
                      Pishenkov (Alexey) 4 November 2020 14: 54
                      0
                      The Big Three is accepted as an option ... yes I am for .. Although, it seems to me, these three countries will not be enough for this ... wait and see.
                    2. Misha Kvakina Offline Misha Kvakina
                      Misha Kvakina (Misha) 7 November 2020 16: 01
                      0
                      Why do we need Turkey ?! We don't need Turkey !!!
    2. Yuliya2209 Offline Yuliya2209
      Yuliya2209 (Yuliya) 2 November 2020 17: 23
      0
      in Kazan, Aliyev refused these agreements when Armenia was already ready to sign
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 2 November 2020 17: 24
        0
        Are you sure that I. Aliyev refused?
    3. Misha Kvakina Offline Misha Kvakina
      Misha Kvakina (Misha) 7 November 2020 16: 00
      0
      Or maybe it's better to kick Aliyev and put him in talks with Pashinyan ?! Only a peace treaty with great mutual concessions !!! Only a strong politician is capable of this .... Another alignment is not possible, with any provocateur for a forceful decision to sort out the toilet ?? !!
  3. Nikolaevich I Offline Nikolaevich I
    Nikolaevich I (Vladimir) 1 November 2020 10: 40
    0
    Oh, well done! Oh, master ... butchering the skin of a bear that has not yet been killed! Dreaming is not harmful ... sometimes it happens, but we'll see!
  4. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) 1 November 2020 12: 13
    +3
    So, we wanted to live in our own separate ulus, sign and get it. Today the presidential elections in Moldova, and in Kazakhstan some kind of turmoil, so the entire perimeter of Russia is on fire, and there the main hegemon has a presidential fight in two days, and you burn everything is clear fire.
  5. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
    Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 1 November 2020 12: 43
    -4
    "Lost battle: All these speeches of Vladimir Vladimirovich about the fragility of young post-Soviet democracies and their regimes are, of course, wonderful, but we all see what they instantly turn into, falling into the zone of influence of our enemies - into mad mongrels splashing with russophobia saliva right on our doorstep So which is better? And continue to breed evil mad dogs around you or insert them into these regimes, if they are so fragile and have not grown stronger in thirty years of independent existence, a strong iron rod, by force and from the outside, so as not to fall apart. "

    "Building a railroad is not like buying a donkey. The crowd laughed. Ostap appreciated the humor."

    About

    mad mongrels splashing Russophobia saliva on our borders

    - have already passed. True, on the pages of the central media of the deceased USSR, "Finnish boogers" appeared. As a result, 300000 killed and wounded by the aggressor. The boogers were extremely biting. The complete illusion. And the ingenious recipe for counteraction is "insert an iron rod with them, forcefully outside." The author, who calls for the annexation of sovereign states, in violation of the Belovezhskaya Agreements, the UN Charter prohibiting such cultural and entertainment events? Moreover, with a very dubious result. The Russian Federation took a winning position in the conflict. Baku will liberate seven districts, and then we will see. To fight on the side of Baku or Azerbaijan, Moscow, too, is sure that it is not going to insert iron rods somewhere by force and outside. Because there is no strength, no desire, no means. And to insert the same Baltic states - NATO members - is fraught with catastrophic consequences and losses: image, material, human. If not the third world war. The USSR occupied an area of ​​22 million square kilometers. Now Russia -17 million. Annex 5 million sq. Km. From Tallinn to Ashgabat? Hardly . I swear on Afghanistan.
    But....
    1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 1 November 2020 15: 00
      +3
      The author, who calls for the annexation of sovereign states, in violation of the Belovezhskaya Agreements, the UN Charter, which prohibits such cultural and entertainment events?

      - exactly. Firstly, they are not sovereign and never were. Secondly, the "Belovezhskaya Agreements" themselves are illegal from the very beginning to the end, at least according to the Constitution of the USSR, on the territory and in the jurisdiction of which they were signed. Third, don't make my slippers laugh with the UN charter! - All these color revolutions, including in the post-Soviet space, regular coups d'etat in the former republics of the USSR, Libya, Syria, Yugoslavia, the history of which, in fact, has not ended, etc., and so on, it all fits into the charter UN? Who counts with him? On what basis are all these "new states" recognized by this very UN, while others, which have just emerged, are not?
      And do not swear by Afghanistan whether you have the right to do so. Afghanistan should be a teaching on the use of "limited military contingents." Judging by the SAR, he became one. So nothing like this will happen ...
      1. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
        Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 1 November 2020 15: 49
        -2
        Quote: Pyshenkov
        The author, who calls for the annexation of sovereign states, in violation of the Belovezhskaya Agreements, the UN Charter prohibiting such cultural and entertainment events?

        - exactly. Firstly, they are not sovereign and never were. Secondly, the "Belovezhskaya Agreements" themselves are illegal from the very beginning to the end, at least according to the Constitution of the USSR, on the territory and in the jurisdiction of which they were signed. Third, don't make my slippers laugh with the UN charter! - All these color revolutions, including in the post-Soviet space, regular coups d'etat in the former republics of the USSR, Libya, Syria, Yugoslavia, the history of which, in fact, has not ended, etc., and so on, it all fits into the charter UN? Who counts with him? On what basis are all these "new states" recognized by this very UN, while others, which have just emerged, are not?

        If the Belovezhskaya Agreements are illegal, then let me ask you what normative act this fact is confirmed? In the case of voicing your personal opinion, it is probably correct to make an appropriate reservation. I will say more, with such a formulation of the question, you question not only the sovereignty of, say, the Baltic states, but also the sovereignty of the Russian Federation. Otherwise, the fundamental principle of law is violated - equality before the law. Orwell's novel's approach:

        All animals are equal, but some are more equal.

        - unacceptable in the civilized world.
        The basic principle of the UN, enshrined in its Charter: non-interference in the internal affairs of states. Therefore, "color revolutions", coups d'etat are a purely internal affair and are not related to other states. You represent the UN as something like a policeman who has the right to enter someone else's apartment to restore order. Pakistan, Bhutto, once called the "Coup". The UN did not intervene and was not going to interfere in the Islamic revolution in Iran, the events in Georgia, the partition of Czechoslovakia, permanent coups in Latin America and Africa. Let me remind myself of the image losses of Franklin Roosevelt, who referred in his election speech that when he was Deputy Minister of the Navy, he personally drew up the constitution of Haiti. And how he then violently rejected his words. Because you always have to answer for your words. Not for you - the level of publication is not that level. But for example, Stalin. Who stated publicly that the Bosphorus is an Armenian territory. Turkey joined NATO a week later.
        I will not dwell on emotional overlaps such as "do not make my slippers laugh", "you hardly have the right to swear by Afghanistan". Not solid. There are more acceptable turns in controversy. Respect yourself and others.
        1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
          Pishenkov (Alexey) 1 November 2020 16: 06
          +3
          If you respect yourself and others, do not write just outright nonsense, I apologize in advance for the "unacceptable turns in polemics" ...
          Of course, neither the Belovezhskaya agreements, nor all of their results are illegal! If you look from the point of view of the so-called "legality", then how can coups and revolutions, including that of 1917, be legal at all? No way! Wars? No way! How are the results of such actions recognized by the "international community"? On what grounds? Based on a) objective reality and b) how this state is beneficial to someone.
          As for the partition of Czechoslovakia and the collapse of everything that until the early 90s was called "Eastern Europe" - you have an obvious gap in your knowledge: the USSR took part in all this! And the emissaries were directly present on the spot ... Moreover, it was organized directly from Moscow, albeit, unfortunately, in a destructive manner.
          Although initially, apparently, the thoughts were exclusively "constructive, liberating and pacifying", like everything in Gorbachev ... And the Belovezhskaya agreements from the same series are a logical continuation of the ILLEGAL collapse of the state. And the fact that this was not a military or violent revolutionary way, does not give any legitimacy to the process ... It's like the difference between theft or armed robbery, which is more legitimate from your point of view ???
          1. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
            Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 1 November 2020 18: 01
            -4
            The concept of legality you have is "so-called", and the word "nonsense" you remember in vain. Although it was Lenin who correctly noted that there is no so-called Kaluga or Ryazan legality. She is one. The Belovezhskaya Agreements have been recognized by their signatories and the international community. They led to the creation of specific legal relations with the onset of legal consequences. They operate in time and space, they are not canceled. They are just the same legal. But you are claiming the ultimate truth. It happens.

            Sit down, I'm glad to see you, and feel free,
            Yesterday I was appointed king by the people.

            This is the famous poem by Apukhtin. Ask about the name in Google. You have no idea that absolute truth is unprovable, as opposed to objective and relative truth. But you are ventriloquist. However, your over-the-top judgments about "saliva-splashing countries, rabid dogs", "steel rods that Russia should insert to countries" can hardly be considered true. Neither on the evidence base, nor on the correctness of judgments, nor on the presentation of information. This is quasi true. Since the facts given by you are not supported by arguments. And they do not contain any of the five signs of procedural evidence. It's just chatter. You need to prepare for publications. In order not to get into a mess. How are you now. And you need to be angry not with me and get personal, but with yourself. And it is desirable: "Well, without hysterics, we will crash into the shore, said the captain ..." Do not disgrace yourself. Natasha Rostova's debut at the ball was an order of magnitude higher. I hope, although I'm not sure, that you have everything ahead of you, so go for it. Рмer aspera, ad astra. Akvilae non capcat muscas.
          2. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
            Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 1 November 2020 18: 20
            -3
            Quote: Pyshenkov
            outright nonsense ... It's like the difference between theft or armed robbery, which is more legitimate from your point of view ???

            Didn't finish reading

            mind of sad observations
            and the hearts of sorrowful notes.


            I confess. It became boring, as much as my cheekbones in a yawn. I'll show you once what "nonsense" is. Let's start with a simple one, perhaps. Armed robbery, a priori, can never be. By definition. This is an open abduction for the purpose of taking possession of someone else's property. Moreover, on the basis of the objective side of the corpus delicti, violence is a way of taking possession of property. While in a robbery - violence is a way to overcome the resistance of the victim. Therefore, robbery entails grave consequences, it can be armed. Robbery - never. The harm to the victim's health is different. In case of a robbery, this can be bodily injury of varying severity, even resulting in the death of the victim. In case of robbery - maximum light bodily injury, and even then without health disorders. Is that even clear? Now about theft and its difference from robbery, robbery, fraud, embezzlement of someone else's property by means of appropriation, waste, abuse of office. This, I will report to you, a connoisseur of international law and jurisprudence at the same time - all one and the same theft. And these crimes are in the section of crimes against property. The only difference is in the way of taking possession of the property. Clear ? So who writes "blatant nonsense"? (In the voice of Lewis Carroll's hero).
            1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
              Pishenkov (Alexey) 2 November 2020 00: 58
              +4
              Blah-blah-blah ... Paraphrasing and quoting himself, introducing the "thoughts of the interlocutor" that were nowhere to be found, smoothly pulling the words out of context and clinging to them, diligently removing the original topic of the question ... - in the best traditions of neo- liberal propaganda! Many words ... But in a very primitive performance ... No.
              You haven't answered the question. And the answer is this: Robbery, robbery, embezzlement with or without violence, as well as an anti-constitutional coup with blood or without - ALL this is the same illegal!
              And the conclusions from the Criminal Code are not in the cashier's office here ...
              1. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
                Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 2 November 2020 01: 07
                -4
                The author answers the questions of literate people who do not shine with "ideas" about "armed robberies." Deal with this first. Then, learn to write without mistakes. Work with the sources, learn to behave decently. Then we'll talk. And not only about “spitting mongrels at the borders.” And so: you lose face, as the Chinese say.
                1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
                  Pishenkov (Alexey) 2 November 2020 13: 41
                  +3
                  The questions are not answered by someone who cannot or does not want for some reason. For example, because of their own wrong.
                  For mistakes in the comments, I apologize - the buttons are merging ... Age, you know ... The eyes are not the same, and somehow I don't want to wear glasses ... request
                  And about ideas, sources, etc. - if I'm not mistaken, we are now discussing MY article here, not yours. When you are honored to issue something coherent for public discussion, someone will publish it for you, and someone else will read it, then, perhaps, you can carefully think about giving such advice. hi
        2. Valentine Offline Valentine
          Valentine (Valentin) 1 November 2020 17: 13
          +1
          Guys, didn’t the USSR, early or late, arrange in other countries something like "color revolutions", kindling, according to the behest of the leader of the world proletariat Vladimir Ilyich, the spark of the world revolution? Remember - Spain, Israel, Egypt, Sudan, Syria, Iran, Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Nicaragua, Afghanistan, Cuba, where our country sent activist advisers, weapons, and even troops ... In our world, always it will be so - for the winner, a coup d'état is a revolution, but for the losers, it is a putsch, so we are also involved in the overthrow of many regimes on our planet, and we have excited almost all of Africa, and now, from fear, Europe and the USA specifically set about us.
          1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
            Pishenkov (Alexey) 2 November 2020 01: 38
            +3
            Absolutely correct. All this is called GEOPOLITICS, which we, at the suggestion of Gorbachev, refused. But they didn't, they just laughed ...
            This is the prerogative of the world powers, and if we want to be it again, then in the same way we all need to do it. And not only to reproach the West through non-existent "international law" for various conquests and "color revolutions", quietly drooling and envying how well they do it ...
    2. Bitter Offline Bitter
      Bitter (Gleb) 1 November 2020 18: 23
      0
      But....

      However, it would be smarter in Afghanistan and the Baltics, and in many other places, to tactically maneuver, including on the political field, and not put a strategy on the line with your people and the entire state as a whole. Moreover, not having the slightest alternative plan, except for a sincere desire to quickly fill their personal pockets. So it goes around now and will continue to fart, cough, sneeze and much more for years.
  6. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 1 November 2020 13: 28
    +1
    The question is not how Armenia will look, but how the Transcaucasia will look like if Russia uses its armed forces to protect Armenia according to the CSTO.
    If we proceed from folk wisdom, the friend of my enemy is my enemy. Then the enemies of the Russian Federation in this region will greatly increase, which will inevitably affect politics and the economy, and NATO aircraft will fly over the Caspian Sea.
    1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 1 November 2020 15: 12
      +5
      Correctly. Only no one in any way speaks about the use of troops by Russia on the Armenian side, it is clearly written there, but about acting as a mediator to conclude an agreement. This is the first, and the second - and again: why does the CSTO troops seem to automatically mean the RF Armed Forces ??? Who said? This organization also has other members. Why does everyone always "forget" about this? CSTO assistance and the adoption of decisions on such assistance does not mean at all that the Russian Federation should do it.
      1. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
        Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 1 November 2020 16: 11
        +3
        1. The use of Russian troops to protect Armenia in the event of the transfer of hostilities to its territory - an official statement of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
        2. Besides the Russian Federation, no other CSTO state will lift a finger.
        1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
          Pishenkov (Alexey) 1 November 2020 16: 23
          +4
          ... in this case, there is nothing to refer to the CSTO and its principles ... the Russian Federation, if anything, the use of the army can also be written off to the protection of its own troops already there legally. And if the political representatives of the Russian Federation themselves, as it were, replace the concept of "CSTO forces" with the Russian Armed Forces, then this is initially a big political mistake. Lavrov, with all due respect, is also not a genius in all respects. He is very "flexible and multi-vector", but he is a diplomat, the job, probably, is to tell someone what that someone wants to hear.
          Although lately this often does not lead to the expected result. Instead of politics, force and sheer disinformation are increasingly entering the scene. And in this, too, one must learn to live. The leadership of the Russian Federation has not yet learned, apparently. but the opposition is good at it - their teachers are professional ...
          1. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
            Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 1 November 2020 18: 14
            -1
            "And in this, too, one must learn to live. The leadership of the Russian Federation has not yet learned."

            But the political level of slaves and political demagogues has risen greatly - they know everything in advance.
            1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
              Pishenkov (Alexey) 2 November 2020 01: 43
              +4
              Yes, here in the discussions they are directly splashing intellect! laughing
              Well, since they are so smart, they themselves would have written something coherent. Maybe if the people read, from the category of slaves and political demagogues it will turn out to go, if not to experts, then at least to observers ... laughing
        2. Andrey Vasilyev Offline Andrey Vasilyev
          Andrey Vasilyev (choyo chagas) 2 November 2020 02: 46
          -2
          What "has been stirring from September 27 Russia" we can see very well. The Armenians were simply thrown. Okay, we don’t want to send soldiers and we don’t need to, they will cope themselves, send at least the Vaunted Rab Krasukh. But I understand that many people like the show with drones?
    2. The comment was deleted.
  7. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 1 November 2020 14: 03
    +6
    Basically, I agree with the author, but the rulers of the Russian Federation cannot swing rods or something else, because they sit on a chair, whose legs become thinner every year - how to sit, the question already arises. Popular support for GDP begins to replace the image
    GDP from the bunker, and these are the symptoms. That is why the sorosets grow without hindrance around Russia, like toadstools, and that there is no one to crush these toadstools ....
    1. goncharov.62 Offline goncharov.62
      goncharov.62 (Andrei) 1 November 2020 14: 38
      0
      or hands are tied with "love" for neighbor ...
  8. lena.buylova.49mail.ru (Elena Builova) 1 November 2020 16: 30
    +2
    Russia will have to solve two problems at once, both with internal syporatism and with external challenges, we get used to it, at such moments we become mobile and more united.
    Russia will not leave Karabakh, but it will resolve this issue without the current leadership of Armenia.
    1. Andrey Vasilyev Offline Andrey Vasilyev
      Andrey Vasilyev (choyo chagas) 2 November 2020 02: 43
      -2
      Have you seen enough how Armenians are ironed from drones? Where is the vaunted rab Krasukha or is it zilch?
  9. amateur Offline amateur
    amateur (Victor) 1 November 2020 17: 08
    +2
    Quote: lena.buylova.49mail.ru
    hyporatism

    and we are about the cook in Belarus ...
    1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 4 November 2020 15: 00
      +2
      Anyone can make a mistake, and, in my opinion, the lady does not pretend to be the president of the country and the leader of the nation. If you pay attention to literacy, then half of the typical Losers will be ... laughing
      In addition, writing on a computer is fundamentally different from paper, even motor and visual memory does not work - I know from myself ...
  10. Semyon Semyonov_2 (Semyon Semyonov) 1 November 2020 21: 20
    +1
    Well written, and most importantly correct
    1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 2 November 2020 01: 45
      +1
      Thank you for rating. smile
  11. DeGreen Offline DeGreen
    DeGreen 1 November 2020 22: 47
    +2
    Pashinyan turned everyone against himself. And that means against Armenia. And the Armenians supported him. So they get now
    1. Andrey Vasilyev Offline Andrey Vasilyev
      Andrey Vasilyev (choyo chagas) 2 November 2020 02: 42
      -3
      Russian base in Armenia, Armenia Isn't that enough? A bunch of trolls crawled out, "Armenians stood with placards" and so on. Yes, even without cowards stood what difference to a handful of marginals?
      1. DeGreen Offline DeGreen
        DeGreen 4 November 2020 07: 23
        -1
        There was no bunch. There are tens of thousands. I have Yerevan TV showing. I looked specifically. And an interview where Russia was poured with mud. And crowds of chanting ... Russia has no place in the Caucasus ... and Russia is an invader ... also saw
  12. Andrey Vasilyev Offline Andrey Vasilyev
    Andrey Vasilyev (choyo chagas) 2 November 2020 02: 39
    0
    It may not be necessary to send a soldier, but it was necessary to send the vaunted rabbi Krasukh to the Armenians for a long time. NATO is rolling through all modern technologies through Turkey, while we are silently standing on the sidelines.
    Watching from the couch how the soldiers of Armenia "fly away" from drone strikes (it is Armenia that is fighting there) is just cynicism and even blasphemous.
    To calm down, it seems, "they will stick their heads in Armenia, they will get it on the nose, and in Karabakh at least a million Armenians will die" well, who needs such calming?
  13. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
    Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) 2 November 2020 02: 56
    +2
    here the GDP holds a very balanced and correct line
  14. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
    Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 2 November 2020 18: 00
    -4
    Quote: Pyshenkov
    The questions are not answered by someone who cannot or does not want for some reason. For example, because of their own wrong.
    For mistakes in the comments, I apologize - the buttons are merging ... Age, you know ... The eyes are not the same, and somehow I don't want to wear glasses ... request
    And about ideas, sources, etc. - if I'm not mistaken, we are now discussing MY article here, not yours. When you are honored to issue something coherent for public discussion, someone will publish it for you, and someone else will read it, then, perhaps, you can carefully think about giving such advice. hi

    I have indicated my position - you are yours. Only I did it in an acceptable and correct manner. Unfortunately you are not. Your publication has the following meaning. 1. The dynamics of the development of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.
    2. The vision of Russian foreign policy in your subjective view.
    On the first point. There are no special questions. The fire is going according to plan. Your predictions are truism. On the very first day of the conflict, its development logic was completely clear. Check out my post on this with an accurate prediction that came true.
    On the second point: "Ostap suffered." Why do you insult sovereign countries in the spirit of Andrei Yanuaryevich and the Stalinist Renaissance? Moreover, you undertake to assert that they are not sovereign at all. While all the countries of the post-Soviet space are members of the UN and other international organizations. And they feel pretty good. For example, in Estonia - "mongrels of Russophobia splashing saliva at the borders of Russia" GDP, living standards, all other indicators are higher than in Russia. I was in Tallinn a couple of years ago. Just amazed at the abundance, elegance, modernity and progress. And I have visited all the countries of Europe. There is something to compare with. At least not worse than in Germany and an order of magnitude higher than in dilapidated Budapest or Belgrade. What are the sources of the conclusion that for 30 years none of the former republics has been able to do anything? Someone is poorer, like Tajikistan, someone is richer, like Kazakhstan. Why are you so angry? You write strange things, denying the existence of international law. Do not specify which one: public or private? Well, how can he not, when all relations between states are regulated by him. And bilateral or multilateral treaties between states should not contradict it. Take a look at the hierarchy of regulations. International treaties approved by the legislative branch of any country are higher than normative internal acts. Let's take, what for example? Even the 1936 Montreux Convention. Try to navigate at least one ship through the Black Sea straits in violation of this convention. Likewise with the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which governs down to the smallest detail both protocol and procedure. Starting from the status of doyenne and the order of delivery of the agreman, or exequatur. And your reasoning is based on fist law. And you arbitrarily equate a coup d'etat, which is an internal affair of the country, and issues of international law. Yes, of course, who would argue about the illegality of a coup d'etat in relation to the legislation of the country, or the "trial of a troika" under the Stalinist regime. But this is an internal affair of the country. And for you everything is simple: let's put an iron rod for all of them somewhere. Both outside and inside. Because they are "mongrels splashing the saliva of Russophobia." Yes, sometimes there are inadequate statesmen, like Saddam Hussein with his trip to Kuwait. Then the reaction of the international community follows. And before talking about the powerlessness of the UN, you would ask about the powers of the General Assembly and the Security Council. And the balance of checks and balances. And don't respond spontaneously, emotionally. You don't look your best. As in the case of "armed robbery". That is why I didn’t discuss it. Not my level. Do not blame me.
    1. Semens Offline Semens
      Semens (Semen) 3 November 2020 14: 08
      +3
      Estonia is sucked by the EU. 30% of the budget is formed at his expense, and Tallinn has always been licked, since the days of the Swedes and Germans ...
      Estonians have always been economic and tidy - the Germans have taught them.
      1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
        Pishenkov (Alexey) 4 November 2020 15: 24
        +3
        and Tallinn has always been licked, since the days of the Swedes and Germans ...

        - I completely agree. Even in the USSR, it looked like Europe ... As Eastern, at least for sure, maybe better ...
    2. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 4 November 2020 15: 14
      +3
      "Tramp", you are in vain trying so hard. It's even a pity. It can be shorter. But apparently you have a lot of extra time ... I still don't read your such long opuses in full. 3-4 first lines and the same at the end.

      Not my level. Do not blame me.

      laughing But you, by the way, apparently do not want me to answer you. Maybe you hope that I will not notice, and you, thus, will come out of the discussion as a "winner"? lol Therefore, you do not use the "answer" button, although you must know that it is there, where and for what ...
      Apparently, you really want everyone to notice both intelligence and brilliant erudition, but these "all" either do not notice, or cannot come to terms with such superiority of intelligence (as it seems to you repeat ) ... Yes. It's a shame ... But you can live with this too. How is your diagnosis? Correct?
      You don't even have to answer - I can imagine the answer, it's not that difficult. So you consider that you have already answered adequately, and I read it and fell silent ... hi
  15. Warrior Offline Warrior
    Warrior 2 November 2020 22: 02
    -1
    After losing, Armenia will look like a Desert
  16. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
    Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 3 November 2020 16: 07
    -2
    Quote: Semens
    Estonia is sucked by the EU. 30% of the budget is formed at his expense, and Tallinn has always been licked, since the days of the Swedes and Germans ...
    Estonians have always been economic and tidy - the Germans have taught them.

    I shared my own impressions. I understand that they are very, very subjective.

    Take a look at the section "Estonian Economy". I would be grateful for a link to the source of your awareness. To be considered in the future.
    1. Semens Offline Semens
      Semens (Semen) 10 November 2020 14: 42
      0
      Link about direct grants ... In addition, grants and financing of projects in Estonia are carried out under a variety of programs from various EU funds ...

      https://baltnews.ee/ekonomika_online_novosti/20191116/1018140052/Estoniya-sest-samu-sebya---ekonomist-o-sokraschenii-subsidiy-ES.html
  17. Alexander Semenov_2 (Alexander Semenov) 4 November 2020 07: 33
    +3
    In this situation, when Armenia loses Nagorno-Karabakh and Pashinyan, with his pro-Western course, is removed, accused of all mortal sins, it may be even better for us.
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 November 2020 15: 13
      +1
      If (when) Armenia loses Nagorno-Karabakh, then it becomes completely pro-Western. Pashinyan will not resign, but the entire "Karabakh mafia" headed by Kocharyan (Putin's personal friend, as they say) will be jailed.
      Pashinyan has a strong joker up his sleeve: The course towards Russia did not justify itself, so I was right when I headed for the West.
      In Russia they do not want (cannot) admit the fact that from the first day of its existence (I mean 1918) Armenia was an invader state that carried out ethnic cleansing. And she has always used Russia only to achieve her goals.
    2. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 4 November 2020 15: 20
      +2
      I agree. This is what the article is about. And Armenia cannot lose what it did not have. The fact that Armenians live in Nagorno-Karabakh does not at all mean that it is Armenian or should be. Russians also live in many places, but as you can see for yourself ...
      I already wrote earlier, in the post-Soviet space I see the solution to such problems only in the reverse unification without internal borders, albeit with the preservation of a certain independence of states such as in the EU ...
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 November 2020 20: 14
        +2
        Reverse merging is not possible at this stage. Primarily because of the position of Russia. President Putin has clearly stated -

        "Whoever wants the restoration of the USSR has no reason."

        I can say in general terms. What can Russia offer to its neighbors (former republics of the Union)? A model of capitalism? So it is more developed in the West, if only because of a longer development. A socially oriented state? So it is not very much built in Russia either. We ourselves are successfully optimizing healthcare and education. That is, we are ruining our population. Russia will only be reached in one case. When they see the construction of a socially oriented society. Not the tops will stretch, of course. The bulk of the population. They will start learning Russian by themselves. With the language comes culture and worldview.
        Russia owes nothing to anyone. I agree with that. But no one owes anything to Russia either. There should be mutual interest. Why would I change my own oligarch Mamed to someone else's Russian oligarch Vanya? And he and the other successfully rob me. Suggest a real goal and maybe we will agree. In the meantime, capitalism all over the world, I see no point in integration.

        On one of my first trips to the States, I saw a poster along the road. It was not the bridges and buildings that struck me. And not even sausage in stores. I was struck by this poster. As they explained to me, this is the principle by which America was built. Maybe this is propaganda, but the slogan is absolutely correct.
        It's all for people and it always will be
        1. Semens Offline Semens
          Semens (Semen) 10 November 2020 14: 44
          0
          Whoever wants the restoration of the USSR has no reason.

          I would also add: "no eggs"
  18. Oleg Bratkov Offline Oleg Bratkov
    Oleg Bratkov (Oleg Bratkov) 6 November 2020 14: 30
    +2
    Quote: bear040
    Before going into foreign countries, Putin needs to put things in order in the Russian Federation itself and how to pinch the tail of home-grown separatists ...

    Leonid Ilyich Brezhnev every day promised us the victory of communism, and the imminent collapse of an ear on feet of clay - America. And the words were the right ones.
    And here's what came of it.
    1. Essex62 Offline Essex62
      Essex62 (Alexander) 7 November 2020 09: 15
      0
      Have you done anything to prevent this from happening?