Kudrin wants to invest Russian reserves in the United States: what is the risk


The National Wealth Fund (NWF) could be squandered in as little as two years, and these funds will go to support the American tech giants. This will be so if the Kremlin follows the advice of one of the country's main systemic liberals, Alexei Kudrin.


Mr. Kudrin, once recognized as the "best finance minister" by some Western publication, suggested spending half, or even more, of the National Wealth Fund's savings:

In my speech and in a conversation with the president, I said that this year you can not skimp, in 2020, that's when the peak will be. Then you can borrow more, maybe borrow in the markets and thereby help the budget.

This is a very characteristic statement. Aleksey Leonidovich clearly considers the NWF in some way "his own". Indeed, this is his brainchild. Initially, in 2004, the Stabilization Fund was created, where, according to its recipes, the withdrawn from economics super profits that could go to the development of the country. In 2008, the Stabilization Fund was split into the NWF and the Reserve Fund. The latter was properly "pinched" in the period from 2015 to 2016, and later its remnants were merged with the National Wealth Fund. Now it was his turn.

Recall that this is a kind of "safety cushion", a state fund, which is a part of the mechanism for providing pensions to Russian citizens. It is formed at the expense of revenues from the oil and gas complex and management of its own funds. When its liquid part reaches 7% of GDP, the government has the right to invest the fund's resources in excess of this threshold. And a whole queue of those wishing to participate in this has long lined up. The key question is where to invest this money?

The patriotic public and the economists of the "old" school quite rightly point out that in the face of constantly increasing Western sanctions, it is worth investing in the development of the country's infrastructure and the notorious import substitution in order to reduce Russia's dependence on unfriendly states. But Kudrin, an adherent of the liberal theory, has different recipes. He proposes to look up to Norway, which is investing oil windfall profits in shares of leading US multinationals Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet (Google). With common sense, this idea does not hold water.

At first, Russia simply cannot be put on the same scales with prosperous Norway. This small country is a member of the European Union and NATO and lives quietly under the wing of the United States, in a sense "paying tribute" by investing its petrodollars in the American economy. To call a spade a spade, then our systemic liberals are doing the same, but the external conditions have now radically changed. Russia is under sanctions, and therefore at any time foreign assets, such as Apple shares, can be seized by the US Treasury Department. Actually, after that, you can forget about them.

Secondly, large-scale investments of public funds in the shares of American technology corporations today pose a great risk. Yes, the value of shares is growing, but the problem is that the profitability of the companies themselves does not keep up with them. This is called a "bubble" that will burst sooner or later. Jeremy Grantham, GMO co-founder, for example:

I see crazy stories all over the place, and these are the stories needed to burst the bubble.

In the opinion of a professional investor, "reality will make itself felt in the coming weeks or months." In this situation, our former "best finance minister" recommends investing public money in "bubbles". Worst of all, the collapse of Western markets will hit the Russian market and further weaken the ruble. It was then that funds from the NWF might be needed, more than half of which Alexey Leonidovich proposes to "swell as soon as possible" into the shares of Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet. But they will be gone.
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  1. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 27 October 2020 11: 49
    -21 qualifying.
    The stupidest, obscene article. Kudrin is technically one of the most literate economists, his value lies in the fact that he understands the difference between what you want and what you can. The author of the article attributed to Kudrin the stupidest goals and immediately criticized them.
    1. Kristallovich Online Kristallovich
      Kristallovich (Ruslan) 27 October 2020 12: 12
      11
      Against the background of large-scale sanctions pressure at the state level, investing in American securities is the stupidest goal. The article explains everything.
      1. Russobel Offline Russobel
        Russobel (Andrei) 28 October 2020 07: 29
        +2
        That's right.
        It's time to have these liberals for the 101st kilometer.
    2. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 27 October 2020 13: 14
      +8
      You wouldn't be disgraced with such comments. Although you obviously have "brain liberosis", you cannot explain anything with all the desire
    3. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 27 October 2020 14: 02
      12
      Quote: AlexZN
      Kudrin is technically one of the most literate economists, his value lies in the fact that he understands the difference between what you want and what you can.

      Your Mr. Kudrin is really a great specialist. To curb the development of the Russian economy. good For which he was marked with honorary titles in Western publications and loved by domestic liberals like you.
    4. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 27 October 2020 18: 36
      +5
      Quote: AlexZN
      Kudrin is technically one of the most literate economists

      Kudrin is a typical Soviet citizen, for whom fartsovka is a beloved child, and factories and roads are a waste of money.
      He only has enough brains to borrow money in the West, buy goods in the West, and sell them in Russia. With the money raised, buy gold (within Russia) and repay the loan.
      The result is like with British boats for Ukraine. It is not known whether they will come in handy, but one and a half billion should already be.
      He is saved only by the fact that he is a chick of Sobchakov's nest. Like Chubais and Putin. Therefore, it is still afloat.
  2. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 27 October 2020 12: 27
    -14 qualifying.
    Quote: Kristallovich
    Against the background of large-scale sanctions pressure at the state level, investing in American securities is the stupidest goal. The article explains everything.

    The article deals with investing in shares of specific companies, and not in securities of the state / treasury. This is stupidity.
    It is not clear what is the connection between the sanctions and American securities, which are easily sold on the free market.
    Why evaluate economic mechanisms without understanding anything about them?
    1. Kristallovich Online Kristallovich
      Kristallovich (Ruslan) 27 October 2020 12: 53
      +8
      The article deals with investing in shares of specific companies, and not in securities of the state / treasury.

      And are not stocks securities? Where did I write about government securities? Don't you know the meaning of the terms?

      It is not clear what is the connection between the sanctions and American securities, which are easily sold on the free market.

      They are implemented without problems until the US government, for example, seizes them. The article indicates this.

      Why evaluate economic mechanisms without understanding anything about them?

      The right question. Perfectly suits your address.
    2. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 27 October 2020 13: 19
      +7
      Quote: AlexZN
      It is not clear what is the connection between the sanctions and American securities, which are easily sold on the free market.

      Do you know what a stock arrest is?
      For example, they were going to apply this type of sanction to our Tinkov

      https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4275498
    3. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 27 October 2020 18: 42
      +4
      When the United States is on the verge of shocks and even a civil war, to invest in the companies of this country, obviously not to be friends with the head or to be a "lackey" of the same United States (it seems the second option refers to our liberals and A. Kudrin)
  3. Vladimir501 Offline Vladimir501
    Vladimir501 (Vladimir) 27 October 2020 12: 28
    +1
    He can want, but who will let him do it? And nobody forbids anyone to speak here. Sometimes it's even a pity.
  4. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 27 October 2020 12: 55
    -13 qualifying.
    About logic ...
    60% of the foreign exchange reserve of the Russian Federation (240 billion dollars) is kept in the form of DOLLARS. Mr. Marzhetsky may not know that the dollar is an AMERICAN SECURITY PAPER. It’s a strange logic - the securities of the American Treasury that bring a small but income, buying is stupid, but keeping non-profitable securities of the same Treasury, losing in value from inflation, is right.
    Both the author and most of the readers need to go through a minimum economic educational program. And if the readers are forgiven for not having elementary economic knowledge, then the author must understand the responsibility and not go into an area where he understands little.
    1. Kristallovich Online Kristallovich
      Kristallovich (Ruslan) 27 October 2020 13: 03
      +5
      60% of the foreign exchange reserve of the Russian Federation (240 billion dollars) is kept in the form of DOLLARS.

      Can you link to a competent source?
      1. Vladimir_ Voronov (Vladimir) 27 October 2020 14: 16
        +2
        And in response, silence ... Throwing words and answering for words are different things.
      2. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
        Alexzn (Alexander) 27 October 2020 14: 32
        -5
        Look at regular wikipedia -

        https://vk.cc/3fc0gR

        If there is time and desire to understand deeper -

        https://www.moneyinformer.ru/banks/cbr/zolotovalyutnyie-rezervyi.html

        и

        http://www.cbr.ru/hd_base/mrrf/mrrf_m/
        1. Kristallovich Online Kristallovich
          Kristallovich (Ruslan) 27 October 2020 14: 39
          +4
          You amaze me with your incompetence. Wikipedia does not say a word about the currency composition of the RF gold and foreign exchange reserves. The same applies to the Central Bank website. On the website moneyinformer.ru below is a graph of 1,5 years ago, for March 2019. But even there, the share of the dollar in the gold reserves is 23,6%. Now the question for filling: where are those 60%, about which you spoke? And after that, you accuse your opponents of the lack of "basic economic knowledge"? Shame on you. It's just a shame.
    2. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 27 October 2020 13: 22
      +4
      Quote: AlexZN
      About logic ...
      60% of the foreign exchange reserve of the Russian Federation (240 billion dollars) is kept in the form of DOLLARS. Mr. Marzhetsky may not know that the dollar is an AMERICAN SECURITY PAPER. It’s a strange logic - the securities of the American Treasury that bring a small but income, buying is stupid, but keeping non-profitable securities of the same Treasury, losing in value from inflation, is right.

      You just attributed to me something that I did not write at all. Actually, the same method in which I was accused in your first comment. The usual demagogy and substitution of concepts.
      As for the educational program, as I understand it, you are an adherent of the HSE and other similar structures? laughing
      1. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
        Alexzn (Alexander) 27 October 2020 14: 03
        -8
        The National Wealth Fund (NWF) could be squandered in as little as two years, and these funds will go to support the American tech giants. This will be so if the Kremlin follows the advice of one of the country's main systemic liberals, Alexei Kudrin.

        This is where the article begins. But this is sheer stupidity! From juggling words to stupidity in essence.
        First it is written - Kudrin WANTS, then Kudrin ADVISES. Let's proceed from the fact that Kudrin BELIEVES that it is right AT HIS LOOK ... So it would be more correct to evaluate his position. This is his legal human right "in the subject." I think the vast majority of professional economists working at this level will agree with him. Initially, the material is presented as exposing the anti-popular, anti-state approach of Kudrin, playing on the negative attitude towards those in power "by definition." Clearly, everything that Kudrin says is bad. Even arguments are not needed ... To dissuade is more expensive. Those who have the authority of Glazyev do not need arguments (and knowledge).
        Kudrin proposes a GENERAL ACCEPTED method of preserving state foreign exchange reserves within the EXISTING system of world financial relations. He does not invent anything new, this is a common practice used by the absolute majority of countries. Today it works, another one will appear - we'll see.
        Is there a problem of freezing investments in American securities - of course, is it possible to solve this problem - certainly (for this, for example, there are non-registered bonds). Do not forget that Russia is not a Urundi-Burundi. American securities are not a way to make money, they are a way of INSURING your reserves.
        PS It is worth understanding that liberalism in the economy is a different concept from social liberalism.
        1. 123 Offline 123
          123 (123) 29 October 2020 11: 03
          +1
          Kudrin proposes a GENERAL ACCEPTED method of preserving state foreign exchange reserves within the EXISTING system of world financial relations. He does not invent anything new, this is a common practice used by the absolute majority of countries. Today it works, another one will appear - we'll see.
          Is there a problem of freezing investments in American securities - of course, is it possible to solve this problem - certainly (for this, for example, there are non-registered bonds). Do not forget that Russia is not a Urundi-Burundi. American securities are not a way to make money, they are a way of INSURING your reserves

          Putin's propaganda argues that "CONVENTIONAL CONSERVATION" is becoming less accepted. repeat



          For some reason, such investments do not seem to me either reliable or reasonable.
          By the way, can you tell me at what level of Israel's investment in the United States? Are they growing? It would be very interesting to look at the statistics
  5. Kuramori Reika Offline Kuramori Reika
    Kuramori Reika (Kuramori Reika) 27 October 2020 14: 03
    +6
    Kudrin cannot be stupid enough to push this. So he was paid, and paid not in cash, but in the form of some services unknown to us. On the face of all the signs of treason. I hope against him and his inner circle will be initiated an investigation into the case of sabotage and subversive activities for another state. And anyone who will help him in promoting this frankly destructive idea should be added to the execution list. Sitting high, Kudrin does not notice at all the changes in the mentality of the vast majority of the country over the past 5-6 years.
  6. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 27 October 2020 14: 10
    -6
    Quote: Marzhetsky
    Quote: AlexZN
    It is not clear what is the connection between the sanctions and American securities, which are easily sold on the free market.

    Do you know what a stock arrest is?
    For example, they were going to apply this type of sanction to our Tinkov

    https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4275498

    A good example with Tinkov - US CITIZEN falling under the jurisdiction of the United States!
    And again, what is the connection between stocks and bonds?
    Why are you trying to play on a field that is far from your understanding?
  7. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 27 October 2020 14: 18
    -2
    All bullshit. Again the Owl on the globe, and from the very beginning.

    The National Wealth Fund (NWF) could be squandered in as little as two years, and these funds will go to support the American tech giants. This will be so if the Kremlin follows the advice of one of the country's main systemic liberals, Alexei Kudrin.

    Roughly the same as communism in Russia will be built in 2 years, if aliens arrive and build it themselves.
  8. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 27 October 2020 14: 44
    -5
    Quote: Sergey Latyshev
    All bullshit. Again the Owl on the globe, and from the very beginning.

    The National Wealth Fund (NWF) could be squandered in as little as two years, and these funds will go to support the American tech giants. This will be so if the Kremlin follows the advice of one of the country's main systemic liberals, Alexei Kudrin.

    Roughly the same as communism in Russia will be built in 2 years, if aliens arrive and build it themselves.

    Worse! The law on the Central Bank strictly stipulates what specific weight in the gold and foreign exchange reserves can be kept in one form or another. So for gold, a ceiling of 20% is determined, for foreign securities, a specific ceiling is also determined. The SWF has a SPECIFIC purpose and Kudrin technically assessed the methods of STORAGE / INSURANCE, and not targeted investment in Microsoft and Apple ...
  9. The comment was deleted.
  10. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 27 October 2020 15: 32
    -7
    Quote: Kristallovich
    You amaze me with your incompetence. Wikipedia does not say a word about the currency composition of the RF gold and foreign exchange reserves. The same applies to the Central Bank website. On the website moneyinformer.ru below is a graph of 1,5 years ago, for March 2019. But even there, the share of the dollar in the gold reserves is 23,6%. Now the question for filling: where are those 60%, about which you spoke? And after that, you accuse your opponents of the lack of "basic economic knowledge"? Shame on you. It's just a shame.

    What you wrote about - ASSETS of banks - 23,6%
    Follow the links on that page ...
    I wrote about the share of the dollar in the currency component ... The entire gold and foreign exchange reserves are about 580-600 billion, about 110-120 billion gold.
    Check out the beginner's guide:

    https://stock-list.ru/zvr-rf.html

    The fact is that, under the terms of the IMF, SDRs and some of the positions listed in the scheme are nominated either in dollars or with a coefficient of 0,63 to the dollar, and this is in addition to the physical dollar stored in the Central Bank ... so you will get somewhere 240 billion
    1. Kristallovich Online Kristallovich
      Kristallovich (Ruslan) 27 October 2020 16: 43
      +3
      What you wrote about - ASSETS of banks - 23,6%

      Open your eyes! These are assets not of "banks", but of the Bank of Russia, that is, the Central Bank!

      The fact is that, under the terms of the IMF, SDRs and some of the positions listed in the scheme are nominated either in dollars or with a coefficient of 0,63 to the dollar, and this is in addition to the physical dollar stored in the Central Bank ... so you will get somewhere 240 billion

      What nonsense? Gold reserves are denominated in different currencies and the dollar is not even in the first place there! In general, it is clear that you cannot back up your statement with anything. The topic is closed due to your incompetence and banal stupidity.
  11. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 27 October 2020 17: 40
    -6
    Quote: Kristallovich
    What you wrote about - ASSETS of banks - 23,6%

    Open your eyes! These are assets not of "banks", but of the Bank of Russia, that is, the Central Bank!

    The fact is that, under the terms of the IMF, SDRs and some of the positions listed in the scheme are nominated either in dollars or with a coefficient of 0,63 to the dollar, and this is in addition to the physical dollar stored in the Central Bank ... so you will get somewhere 240 billion

    What nonsense? Gold reserves are denominated in different currencies and the dollar is not even in the first place there! In general, it is clear that you cannot back up your statement with anything. The topic is closed due to your incompetence and banal stupidity.

    Quote: Kristallovich
    https://www.moneyinformer.ru/banks/cbr/zolotovalyutnyie-rezervyi.html

    The points. I mistakenly wrote asset of banks instead of assets of a bank Even in the bank's assets (and these are not the bank's reserves at all) today, 28-30% of the currency, at 50% a couple of years ago. But we are talking about the reserve (gold reserves), and I emphasized - within the currency component of this reserve.
    I wrote that they are nominated in SDR dollars, which you forgot about. You have forgotten about the debts of third countries, which are also denominated in dollars.
    Persuaded, in the light of today's dynamics, not 240 billion dollars, but 200, not 60%, but 50%. I have not been interested in live figures for Russia for a long time. Does it change anything? Store in reserve 200 billion dollars. securities - is this normal?
    1. Kristallovich Online Kristallovich
      Kristallovich (Ruslan) 28 October 2020 09: 05
      +3
      The points. I mistakenly wrote asset of banks instead of assets of a bank. Even in the bank's assets (and these are not bank reserves at all)

      There is all the material about gold reserves. And gold and foreign exchange assets, respectively! Don't play the fool! Below is immediately a graph of the geographical distribution - there is gold and everything else! It's about gold reserves!

      I wrote that they are nominated in SDR dollars, which you forgot about. You have forgotten about the debts of third countries, which are also denominated in dollars.

      How can euros be denominated in dollars ??! All gold and foreign exchange reserves are simply counted in one currency for ease of assessment and statistics! The reserves themselves are stored in different currencies, and the dollar at the time of March 2019 is in second place with its 23,6%!
  12. Yurets Offline Yurets
    Yurets (Yuri) 28 October 2020 01: 34
    +8
    Kudrin and K are agents of influence, the fifth column. It is surprising that all this camarilla still offers and decides something ...
  13. Georgievic Offline Georgievic
    Georgievic (Georgievic) 28 October 2020 07: 44
    +4
    All this demagoguery with the preservation of the NWF translates into a specific goal - to tear the fund apart and rob the Russian Federation once again! And it is not necessary to present the subcutaneous Kudrin as the most competent economist, since money must be invested in the development of one's own economy and not someone else's!
  14. Jacob Offline Jacob
    Jacob (yaks) 28 October 2020 15: 12
    0
    such a person cannot stand in power in Russia ... he is not a patriot of his country
  15. Yuri Bryanskiy Offline Yuri Bryanskiy
    Yuri Bryanskiy (Yuri Bryansky) 28 October 2020 17: 37
    -1
    As long as the liberals rule, there will be no development of Russia. There should be no funds, the funds from them go, as we were told "to support the liquidity of the banking system," that is, to the Anglo-Saxons.
  16. Kuramori Reika Offline Kuramori Reika
    Kuramori Reika (Kuramori Reika) 28 October 2020 19: 28
    +1
    Liberalism in the economy is important and necessary, this approach allows you to economically distribute budget funds, and use citizens' own savings as a resource for development. But everything should have a reasonable limit, unfortunately, the liberal gang from the 90s does not know this measure. They replace their stupidity with words about the wonderful hand of the market, so as not to wiggle their z ... oh.