Turkish media: Nagorno-Karabakh may turn into a second Syria for Moscow

On October 23, 2020, it was Washington's turn to make a diplomatic move regarding the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Before that, Moscow twice acted as an intermediary between Yerevan and Baku, but these efforts were not enough to end the bloodshed, the Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah writes.

No one expects long-term results and breakthroughs from the talks between US State Department Head Mike Pompeo and the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan. One thing is clear. While the Azerbaijani army daily takes control of new territories of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continues to feverishly seek opportunities for salvation.

Yesterday he talked about the war of rival civilizations, and today he condemns the Russians and tries to play the American card. On the eve of the presidential elections in the United States, Yerevan seeks to involve the Armenian diaspora and is trying to get the international community to recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh.

At the same time, failing to turn the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh into a full-scale conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Pashinyan threatens a protracted war in the enclave. It will last for years and will have a destabilizing effect on the entire region. Pashinyan wants to turn Nagorno-Karabakh into a second Syria and fuels fears in Russia, Iran and the European Union.

It is obvious that Moscow is not interested in such a development of events. It absolutely does not need another Syria at its southern borders. A protracted war could undermine Russia's influence in the region and lead to US and NATO intervention.

Tehran is also not happy with the prospect of the emergence of the United States, and possibly Israel, in the Transcaucasus. They can use jihadists against Iran, starting activity not only on its borders, but also on its territory.

As for Europe, it has already had enough refugees from Syria and does not want to repeat this.

The military situation in Nagorno-Karabakh suggests that Armenia is not at all ready for a protracted war. She is simply unable to fight for attrition. The military campaign is not in favor of the Armenians. Pashinyan's threat to create a new Syria is an admission of Armenia's helplessness. At the same time, regional and global powers have a certain amount of experience to prevent Yerevan from being dragged into a dangerous and costly adventure.

Given Russia's strong influence in the Caucasus, it looks like Moscow is simply letting Yerevan run out of options. The Russians give Pashinyan Armenia the opportunity to face the consequences of refusing to withdraw from five regions (we are talking about five regions of Azerbaijan out of seven that were not part of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region under the USSR) - as Moscow demanded.

Probably, not having received what he wanted from the United States, Pashinyan would eventually turn to Russia. At the same time, Russia and Azerbaijan also have common interests. Therefore, Moscow cannot follow the lead of the intractable Yerevan.

In addition, Ankara supports Baku, and this could change the entire balance of power in the region. Iran understands this. Tehran has already called for trilateral negotiations similar to those in Astana for Syria with the participation of Turkey, Russia and Iran. It would be extremely surprising if the armed conflict in the Russian sphere of influence ended under US pressure. Therefore, one can expect that Moscow will enter into negotiations with Ankara, and not with Washington, and put pressure on Yerevan.
  • Used photos: http://www.kremlin.ru/
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  1. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 24 October 2020 15: 48
    Here is such a triumph of romanticism over practicality.
    Fighters for all good against all bad promise mountains of gold, as a result, people receive coffins.
    A little time has passed and life is no longer so beautiful. And promises not to close Russian schools were forgotten. And much more.

  2. Don36 Offline Don36
    Don36 (Don36) 24 October 2020 17: 21
    On what grounds is Turkey trying to frighten the Russian Federation with Karabakh and with what forces is Turkey going to fight ?! The Turks obviously caught a cold in their heads, because they are constantly running into the Russian Federation, then France, then Saudi Arabia ...
    1. Binder Offline Binder
      Binder (Miron) 24 October 2020 17: 41
      The main Turk is not at all as stupid as you think - he is clearly aware of the real possibilities of Turkey and is not at all going to seriously fight on all fronts at once - in Libya, Syria, in the eastern Mediterranean with Greece and in Karabakh. It's like trading in an Istanbul bazaar - first they ask for an unrealistic price and then they seem to meet the buyer halfway, getting from him what they planned. So in politics - Erdogan, in communication with the leaders of Europe and the United States, can, like, make concessions - "Allah is with you, I am leaving Libya and I am not butting with the Greeks, but in return, do not bother me in Syria and the Azerbaijanis in Karabakh." And he may well have a ride ...
      1. Shadow041 Offline Shadow041
        Shadow041 25 October 2020 00: 44
        In Karabakh, he can get a ride only because of the Armenian arrogance and stupidity multiplied by the Armenian Russophobia, but not because of threats. Turkey is no one to threaten Russia, France, or even Saudi Arabia ...
        1. Binder Offline Binder
          Binder (Miron) 25 October 2020 05: 47
          Quote: Shadow041
          Turkey is no one to threaten Russia, France, or even Saudi Arabia ...

          You clearly underestimate the military potential of Turkey.
          1. Shadow041 Offline Shadow041
            Shadow041 29 October 2020 04: 08
            Oh whether. And what am I underestimating there ?! 90% of the tank park of Turkey are museum Leopard-1 and M-60. The best tanks in Turkey are Leopard-2, and they burned like candles in Syria, with detonation of ammunition and the death of crews. Turkish fleet with 50% decommissioned ships from the US and EU fleets. The Turkish Air Force is about 200 F-16 of which 25% can be considered modern. Not much . And given the fact that the Russian Federation can cover any point on the territory of Turkey with its missiles, and Turkey cannot respond to the Russian Federation in kind, Turkey will very quickly merge the war of the Russian Federation
  3. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 24 October 2020 17: 23
    The EU survived millions of migrants (whom the local agitprop for some reason calls "refugees", the population of N. Karabakh (how many is there, 120?) In its entirety will survive. Well, not everyone in Nerezinovaya ... Refugees were settled in 000, and real , I saw it myself from Baku to the rest houses of the Union ministries, but now these houses, like the ministries, do not exist.
    1. Binder Offline Binder
      Binder (Miron) 24 October 2020 20: 43
      There is a grain of truth in your commentary - if the Azerbaijanis supplied each Armenian leaving Karabakh with a certain amount of euros from their oil revenues and offered them a route: suitcase-station-Europe, then in two weeks not one of 120 thousand Armenians would be in Karabakh ... And the costs would be less than for the war ...
  4. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 24 October 2020 18: 36
    All bullshit. Can not.
    Friends V and E simply solve their problems. Together.
  5. Semyon Semyonov_2 (Semyon Semyonov) 24 October 2020 23: 59
    In any case, the war must be stopped. am
  6. zz811 Offline zz811
    zz811 (Vlad Pervovich) 25 October 2020 17: 52
    and for Turkey, what is this Syria?