After the war over Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia may lose Armenia


Armenia has developed an active foreign policy aimed at forcing Russia to enter the war against Azerbaijan on its side. In response, Moscow made a statement from a State Duma deputy about the possibility of carrying out a certain "landing operation". Who, where, how and why to drop, that is the question.


The war for Nagorno-Karabakh has been going on for several weeks, and events are not developing in the best way for Armenia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called on Armenians from all over the world to come out in defense of this unrecognized republic. Also, Yerevan is putting pressure on the Kremlin to send troops to help its ally in the CSTO and the EAEU. And in the State Duma, the head of the Committee for CIS Affairs and Eurasian Integration Konstantin Zatulin spoke on this matter, who allowed a "landing operation" to be carried out to protect the territory of Armenia:

By opening the air blockade. If necessary, we must clearly explain to Georgia that, if necessary, it should calmly accept that the necessary forces and means will be sent to Armenia through its airspace.

At the same time, the parliamentarian stressed that this must be done in order to prevent Turkey from establishing its new world in Transcaucasia, where it is the "arbiter of destinies". This statement is highly controversial.

It is not entirely clear how exactly Russia should overcome the air blockade of Armenia, with which it has no common border. The MP proposes to "clearly explain" something to Georgia about the spread of terrorism. At the same time, he forgets that this country is already a transit country for the militants crossing into our territory. And if, or rather, when Tbilisi refuses to provide an "air corridor" for the RF Ministry of Defense? What then, to punch it by force through Georgia? Through warring Azerbaijan or Turkey? Through Iran? And if Tehran also refuses, then what?

In fact, our only ally in Transcaucasia is in a blockade, and we cannot help him much. And what exactly should this help be? Konstantin Zatulin says that it is necessary to strengthen the Russian military presence in Armenia, but there is already a base of the Russian Defense Ministry there. Azerbaijan does not intend to seize Armenia, it is only interested in its own territory, which is occupied by the unrecognized republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. Unrecognized, by the way, by Yerevan itself. And what, according to Nikol Pashinyan's idea, Russian soldiers will have to defend Stepanakert? They somehow already tried, but nothing good came of it, so is it worth jumping on the old rake, again getting into the long-standing interethnic conflict?

Unfortunately, the corridor of decisions before the Kremlin is getting narrower. It is unprofitable for Russia to fight with Azerbaijan and Turkey for the sake of Nagorno-Karabakh. At the same time, we were shown in fact that, even with such a desire, we would have to ask permission from third countries, none of which is friendly. But the emphasized non-interference in the conflict on the side of Armenia will have its price. Prime Minister Pashinyan began to actively flirt with Western countries. He directly called French President Emmanuel Macron the most comfortable interlocutor:

I think there will be more telephone conversations with the French President and other leaders to discuss the current situation and developments.

“Others” is in relation to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Armenian President Armen Sarkissian went to Brussels to talk with the leaders of the European Union and NATO. Now Washington is directly involved in the negotiations between Baku and Yerevan. It should be remembered that there is a rather influential Armenian diaspora in the United States, which has its own lobby in the Congress. All this will have many long-term negative consequences.

Most likely, the acute stage of the armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh will end when Baku is able to take control of the "buffer belt" and both sides will deplete their resources. After that, the negotiation process will be led by a coalition of leading Western countries, relegating Moscow to secondary roles in it. Turkey will strengthen its influence on Azerbaijan and the entire region as a whole, while Russia, on the contrary, will seriously reduce it in Armenia, since official Yerevan and the Armenian people will be offended by the lack of military assistance at a difficult moment for themselves.
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  1. Kvazar Offline Kvazar
    Kvazar (Dmitriy) 23 October 2020 14: 48
    +3
    And what will Armenia do if not to get into an elbow position after the loss of Karabakh to Russia? I wonder how long they will live after leaving the CSTO? If you already have to take the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan under the Russian troops. So that they would not accidentally grab a piece of Armenia in the heat of pursuit of the fleeing Armenians.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 23 October 2020 15: 29
      +4
      Now for Russia not to interfere in the showdown between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Call for peace and negotiations, but no more, because having entered the conflict, we will become the culprit for both parties, and for all reasons. Wait until the steam disappears and the forces are used up, then proceed to a peaceful settlement ...
  2. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 23 October 2020 15: 27
    11
    And who said that Armenia is our ally, not a parasite?
    Pashinyan staged a coup with the slogan "Russian invaders out!" Therefore, Russia's indifference to the events in Karabakh, while Pashinyan is in power, is quite understandable. Azerbaijan is de-occupying Armenia from Russia. Within the framework of the Armenian paradigm.
  3. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 23 October 2020 15: 30
    +1
    After that, the negotiation process will be led by a coalition of leading Western countries, pushing aside Moscow in it.

    And after that "suddenly" a NATO base will appear there. After all, in fact, everything is going towards this, to greatly complicate Russia's negotiating position on NK. And then suddenly the NATO countries will be able to calm everyone down and, in gratitude, the Prime Minister (from Soros) will agree to a NATO base in the country.
    In other words, Russia is being stubbornly drawn into the war in NK. There are a lot of questions and subtleties that can be discussed for a very long time. And there is not enough time left to dissolve for a while (it will always fail for a number of reasons and issues) the parties.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 October 2020 08: 55
      0
      Quote: Cheburashk
      And after that "suddenly" a NATO base will appear there. After all, in fact, everything is going towards this, to greatly complicate Russia's negotiating position on NK. And then suddenly the NATO countries will be able to calm everyone down and, in gratitude, the Prime Minister (from Soros) will agree to a NATO base in the country.

      A Turkish military base will appear in Azerbaijan, or even more than one. Perhaps in the Caspian too.
      1. bear040 Offline bear040
        bear040 24 October 2020 09: 46
        +3
        It can become expensive for Azerbaijan. The Turkish diaspora has already packed their suitcases in the Russian Federation, the Azerbaijani diaspora would not have to collect them. And Azerbaijan will not sell its tomatoes to Turkey, so thousands of agricultural workers will have to be fired, as in Poland
    2. Heroes Heroes Offline Heroes Heroes
      Heroes Heroes (Sergei) 24 October 2020 10: 17
      +2
      Read Russia's nuclear doctrine carefully! And we have NATO bases, ALREADY and closer. Let the Americans keep the Armenians now.
    3. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
      Bulanov (Vladimir) 24 October 2020 17: 26
      0
      The NATO base in Armenia has long existed in the form of the US military biological laboratory.
  4. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 23 October 2020 15: 39
    +2
    Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
    Now for Russia not to interfere in the showdown between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Call for peace and negotiations, but no more, because having entered the conflict, we will become the culprit for both parties, and for all reasons. Wait until the steam disappears and the forces are used up, then proceed to a peaceful settlement ...

    You said everything correctly. But as always there is a "BUT". Armenia will fizzle out much faster than Azerbaijan (for many reasons). And if Russia comes out on the side of Armenia, then Azerbaijan will be indignant, so to speak, and absolutely vice versa.
    In other words, in my opinion, Russia is simply and impudently chopped off, well, I'll tell you allies (with all the criticism of those). They want to leave Russia alone against everyone, so that it would be convenient and easy to tear it apart and then devour the West and the US. I believe that this will not happen.
  5. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 23 October 2020 16: 11
    +2
    Armenia is already lost to Russia, the fact that there is a base there does not mean anything, sooner or later this base will be asked to leave, so let them deal with Azeri ... And we have no problems with the Turks, as the great strategist said yesterday
  6. Kuramori Reika Offline Kuramori Reika
    Kuramori Reika (Kuramori Reika) 23 October 2020 16: 46
    +6
    Losing Armenia? So what? Maybe it's worth saying that it was Armenia that lost Russia when it was organizing the Maidan and anti-Russian sabbath. Armenia is reaping its own fruits of "political flexibility" and desire to "integrate with Europe." Have we received any help from Armenia over the past 15 years of Russia's war with the West and bandit formations from the North Caucasus in Syria? No, they didn't lift a finger. Was there any help from the "Armenian lobby" in the US regarding Russia? Did not have. What did we get from Armenia in general? Maybe they can be taken by toothless France and do what it wants in this hot region. We have no common borders with her.
    1. Heroes Heroes Offline Heroes Heroes
      Heroes Heroes (Sergei) 24 October 2020 10: 21
      0
      good + 100500!!!
    2. Semens Offline Semens
      Semens (Semen) 27 October 2020 01: 44
      0
      Ooooh! Makryon and hot Armenian guys will find something to do ...
  7. amateur Offline amateur
    amateur (Victor) 23 October 2020 17: 07
    +5
    and Russia, on the contrary, will seriously reduce it in Armenia, since official Yerevan and the Armenian people will be offended by the lack of military assistance at a difficult moment for themselves.

    And even more Russia will reduce its influence if it is going to expel from Russia the Armenians living in it (who are more than in Armenia itself), so that they would either drive out the American hanger Pashinyan with rags, or defeat Azerbaijan together.
  8. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
    Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 23 October 2020 17: 31
    +2
    A variant of "Buridan's donkey". And so bad and so bad. Armenia has already suffered a measured defeat. This is evidenced by the attempts of its President in any way, with the help of any states, to stop the conflict. Now it is important that the victory of Azerbaijan is also metered. And Baku, it seems, is not going to stop yet. The point is not Armenia, but the strategic position it occupies. Zatulin announced, of course, that having agreed at the top, the position of the Russian Federation on preventing the strengthening of Ankara. This is all clear. How, that's the question? All this talk about the use of the airspace of Georgia, as for me, is a distraction. It will not happen. Ikhtamnetov, as one of the options, can be transferred to Armenia via Iran. And with several spectacular, but local operations, simultaneously conducting diplomatic, including backstage negotiations, force Baku to peace. With the obligatory condition of returning seven regions to Azerbaijan, outside the territory of Karabakh. And Turkey should be promised something in Syria. But the situation is complicated: it depends not only on the position of the Russian Federation. There are a lot of introductions. And each entails its own development of events.
  9. Tamara Smirnova Offline Tamara Smirnova
    Tamara Smirnova (Tamara Smirnova) 23 October 2020 18: 13
    +5
    It was not today's conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh that forced Pashinyans to bow to the west. He is a little weed and it was with him that Armenia became almost hostile to Russia. All these kings rush at the feet of the West, expecting to receive sweet buns for their Russophobia, and when the buns turn into slaps in the face, then the kings and flock begin to cry out to Russia and scream about "brotherhood" in order to involve Russia in a war for the needs of the Western masters. If someone in Armenia is not satisfied with the puppet of Soros in the person of Pashinyan, they may well repeat the revolution on the wave of which he came to power. But while this is not visible, therefore, everyone is satisfied with the Armenian-Gay Europeans and this is their way.
  10. Albert Mukhin Offline Albert Mukhin
    Albert Mukhin (Albert Mukhin) 23 October 2020 19: 44
    +5
    We will lose Armenia, and thank God.
  11. bear040 Offline bear040
    bear040 24 October 2020 09: 42
    +8
    Oh, don't make us laugh. It was Armenia that lost Russia, choosing a fool with Russophobia as the Prime Minister of Armenia, therefore it has troubles today and this is only the beginning of these
  12. Heroes Heroes Offline Heroes Heroes
    Heroes Heroes (Sergei) 24 October 2020 10: 14
    +1
    The loss is not great!
  13. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 24 October 2020 16: 52
    0
    Quote: Marzhetsky
    Quote: Cheburashk
    And after that "suddenly" a NATO base will appear there. After all, in fact, everything is going towards this, to greatly complicate Russia's negotiating position on NK. And then suddenly the NATO countries will be able to calm everyone down and, in gratitude, the Prime Minister (from Soros) will agree to a NATO base in the country.

    A Turkish military base will appear in Azerbaijan, or even more than one. Perhaps in the Caspian too.

    I agree with you, BUT Armenia can also say if the Americans are able to calm everything there, that America helped us, but Russia did not, and let it be an American base and not a Russian one. As an option, this may happen.
  14. yes choke
  15. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 24 October 2020 23: 20
    0
    Quote: Bulanov
    The NATO base in Armenia has long existed in the form of the US military biological laboratory.

    Hmm, I somehow didn't even think about it, but in fact it is even stronger than an ordinary military base!
    1. DeGreen Offline DeGreen
      DeGreen 28 October 2020 13: 24
      +1
      In Armenia, the largest in the world, the US Embassy. 1690 people. Most of them are young, strong men
  16. DVF Offline DVF
    DVF (Denis) 26 October 2020 17: 45
    +2
    Let all the Armenian diasporas go to defend Karabakh, otherwise, when you turn on TNT, they are all in show business.
    1. Semyon Semyonov_2 (Semyon Semyonov) 30 October 2020 19: 16
      0
      and for wholesale. markets of Russia.
  17. DVF Offline DVF
    DVF (Denis) 26 October 2020 17: 53
    -1
    I really like it when "experts" shout that the priest is unfolding near the borders of Russia. The pandemic will end and all the guest workers will come to our work, everything will settle down at once.
    1. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
      Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) 29 October 2020 13: 49
      +1
      The pandemic is just a catalyst and screen for the ongoing change in the technological order. And this is not the first time in history. The world is transforming and not always in favor of the Russian Federation.
  18. DeGreen Offline DeGreen
    DeGreen 28 October 2020 13: 22
    +1
    Armenia is already lost to Russia.
  19. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
    Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) 29 October 2020 13: 47
    +1
    The Russian Federation has already lost Armenia 2 years ago. It remains only to formalize this loss. A little more and they will begin to sever economic and military ties completely. And the Armenians do not care that this will completely collapse Armenia. Pashinyan is not ours (Russian) for a long time.
  20. Semyon Semyonov_2 (Semyon Semyonov) 30 October 2020 19: 14
    +1
    What is the help for Karabakh if ​​it is not recognized by either Armenia or Russia?
    Pashinyan is making eyes to the west, so let them ask for help.
  21. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 31 October 2020 21: 28
    +1
    Quote: Barmaley_2
    The pandemic is just a catalyst and screen for the ongoing change in the technological order. And this is not the first time in history. The world is transforming and not always in favor of the Russian Federation.

    You are the first person who said this in the comments. I tried to explain something to people in a conversation, but they looked at me as ....... that.
  22. Ivancarafuto Offline Ivancarafuto
    Ivancarafuto (Ivan) 1 November 2020 11: 40
    +1
    "After the war for Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia may lose Armenia"

    - Russia lost Armenia completely with the victory of Pashinyan. Why "finally" because Pashinyan's predecessor also began to take steps towards rapprochement with the West. And after the war, now it is clear that Armenia was completely lost, because of its own stupidity, completely different relations will be built. In general, many "tough Caucasian guys" have forgotten that they live in a hostile Muslim environment and Washington is far away ... and Washington has momentary interests in the Caucasus