Turkey's goal in the Karabakh conflict becomes more evident


The main role of Ankara at the beginning of the next round of confrontation between Baku and Yerevan is beyond doubt. At the same time, Turkey's main goal in Nagorno-Karabakh is becoming more and more obvious. Therefore, it will be difficult for the parties to agree, and the smoldering conflict can turn into a long war, writes the American publication Strategic Culture.


Recently, Turkish President Recep Erdogan phoned Russian leader Vladimir Putin and assured him of Ankara's support for Moscow's efforts to achieve a truce in Nagorno-Karabakh. At the same time, the Turkish leader actually delivered an ultimatum to his Russian counterpart, stating that it should be a "final settlement" of the long-term territorial dispute between Yerevan and Baku. But the Turks and Azerbaijanis have already made it clear that they believe that the only acceptable solution for themselves is the complete refusal of Armenians from any claims to the region.

Ankara and Baku, even before the start of the "counter-offensive operation" in the region at the end of September, clearly showed what they mean by "final settlement." In July, large joint military exercises were held and part of the Turkish forces remained in Azerbaijan. At the same time, in the third quarter of 2020, Turkish military exports to Azerbaijan increased sixfold and the transfer of thousands of mercenaries from Syria, Libya and other countries began. Consequently, the escalation was planned in advance and is not a spontaneous response to the actions of the Armenian side. Therefore, there is no doubt that Turkey and Azerbaijan made a strategic decision to carry out a "final settlement" of the territorial dispute by military means.

In this regard, Moscow's mediation efforts to stop hostilities are fraught with the most unexpected consequences. The violation of the ceasefire agreements is a clear proof of this. In addition, the conflict demonstrates attempts to expand, as Armenia and Azerbaijan periodically strike each other outside of Nagorno-Karabakh. At the same time, Moscow is bound with Yerevan by obligations within the framework of the CSTO, and in case of a real threat to Armenia, Russia will be forced to go for military intervention.

Such a development of events will mean that Russia and Turkey are at war. There are fears that such a scenario suits Turkish President Erdogan, after all, Ankara suffered a painful defeat from Moscow in Syria. Turkey's and NATO's plans for regime change in Damascus have been completely destroyed by Russia. Therefore, the aggravation in Nagorno-Karabakh may be Erdogan's revenge for the humiliation he suffered. Probably, Russia needs to reconsider its relations with Turkey, making it clear that it has approached the "red line".
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  1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 20 October 2020 10: 21
    +4
    Under the existing conditions (the contribution of Armenia N. Pashinyan) the Azerbaijanis will squeeze out and return most of Karabakh. Now, as if everyone agrees to negotiations, "but the cat listens and eats" ...
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 20 October 2020 13: 38
      +3
      Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
      Azerbaijanis will squeeze and return most of Karabakh.

      And they will give it to the Sunni population from Turkey. And in the future, having the Turkish Armed Forces, Azerbaijanis will receive a puppet president.
      1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 20 October 2020 15: 15
        0
        Playing further in checkers ... Armenia without Karabakh and Georgia, under the pressure of Turkey, will be forced to turn to Russia with a shout, - save ... (like two hundred years ago) ...
        1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
          A.Lex (Secret information) 20 October 2020 20: 17
          0
          They will not apply: Pashinyan SPECIALLY surrenders Artsakh - in order to later accuse the Russian Federation of not helping (since NK is not part of Armenia, the Russian Federation has no right to get involved in the slaughter); Georgia, in its anti-Russian frenzy, has already sunk to the point that its Adjara is already almost completely absorbed by Turkey ..... Anything else? Let's look at the rest too!
          1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 20 October 2020 21: 12
            0
            For Russia, it is better to have Armenia and Georgia under Turkish rule than the United States ...
            1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
              A.Lex (Secret information) 22 October 2020 21: 50
              0
              Ndaaaa ... I didn't think that everything was running like that ... fool
              1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 23 October 2020 15: 46
                0
                A. Leh .. We can deal with Turkey, but the United States can deal with the Russian Federation - the difference is obvious ...
                1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
                  A.Lex (Secret information) 24 October 2020 20: 11
                  +1
                  And we do not need to deal with amers! We need. so that they do not meddle in their own business! And to stuff the face - let the Yankees try to poke their heads.
                  1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 25 October 2020 10: 24
                    +1
                    Yes, the United States is getting into our affairs and pressing it thoroughly, it has taken away Georgia, Ukraine, and Armenia will be taken away and everyone will be turned into enemies of Russia, but the sanctions have forced everyone to be introduced against the Russian Federation ... There is nowhere to retreat, they have driven into a corner (otherwise it will not be with compradors in the government of the Russian Federation) ...
                    1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
                      A.Lex (Secret information) 25 October 2020 11: 17
                      0
                      Well, if you are cornered, then I sympathize with you.
                      1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 26 October 2020 14: 08
                        0
                        It looks like you are not a citizen of the Russian Federation, and such judgments ...
                      2. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
                        A.Lex (Secret information) 26 October 2020 18: 32
                        +1
                        laughing laughing laughing Well, yes, well, yes ... If the Orenburg region is not part of the Russian Federation for you, then you are definitely in the corner, "citizen".
        2. whitebeard Offline whitebeard
          whitebeard 21 October 2020 18: 20
          +1
          Well, he will be right, because Artsakh constantly sucks up resources, and the Armenians cannot establish life in their main territory either. But it is clear that Russia will have "yo ushem winowat"
  • The comment was deleted.
  • Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 20 October 2020 15: 52
    0
    Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
    Playing further in checkers ... Armenia without Karabakh and Georgia, under the pressure of Turkey, will be forced to turn to Russia with a shout, - save ... (like two hundred years ago) ...

    While pro-Western or pro-European politicians will not turn in power there. Of course, they can only turn in the event that they involve Russia in a war or something like that.
  • Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 20 October 2020 15: 59
    +1
    Yes, it is clear that the Turks want at least to cut through the corridor and connect Turkey and Azerbaijan directly. But if this is the case, the Turks will devour NK and then take over Armenia slowly and confidently. And then it’s not far before the complete loss of the South Caucasus by Russia. of all, Turkey will begin to "shake" the North Caucasus, and naturally not directly but with its "proxies".
    What to do ? I am not a politician and do not have a complete picture, and I think like most people in a simple way. But in my simple understanding, Turkey should be put in its place and put rigidly, so that others do not know and not lose credibility.
    1. passing by Online passing by
      passing by (passing by) 20 October 2020 16: 10
      0
      to save the beloved dog of the USA Armenia? in the United States they bet against Turkey against the Armenians. either the Sultanate or another herd of Maydauns-Russophobes.
      1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
        A.Lex (Secret information) 20 October 2020 20: 22
        0
        Nobody put anything against anyone there. There, the Turks carry out the direct plan of the Yankees - either to drag the Russian Federation into the war (and then blame it for all sins and COMPLETELY (like Iran) impose SUCH SANCTIONS that ...), or to squeeze Russia out of the Caucasus by the fact that all Pashinyans will accuse us of the fact that we DROPPED them. Thinking that the Turks are acting on their own and against the will of the Americans is a BIG MISTAKE!
    2. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex (Secret information) 20 October 2020 20: 18
      0
      The Turks will not devour RA - Pashinyan will surrender it himself. And after that he fades into either Geyrop or the Yankees!
    3. whitebeard Offline whitebeard
      whitebeard 21 October 2020 18: 22
      0
      Well, go to the Ikhtamnet and "put Turkey in its place" - why shake the electrons in Tyrnet in vain, Mr. "common citizen"? ;)
    4. Semens Offline Semens
      Semens (Semen) 21 October 2020 19: 48
      0
      Yeah, Zakharova urgently needs to express her decisive one hundred and first Chinese concern ...
      In fact, the situation is difficult, Vovan will wipe himself out once again and keep silent ...
  • Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 20 October 2020 16: 38
    0
    Quote: passing by
    to save the beloved dog of the USA Armenia? in the United States they bet against Turkey against the Armenians. either the Sultanate or another herd of Maydauns-Russophobes.

    I do not agree with you, due to the fact that the Americans will bet on those who will screw up Russia more. There is an Armenian lobby in the United States, but in my opinion it is not so powerful as to move the decisions of the United States towards the Armenians. Yes, and the Amers will have elections soon and they They will not get into this question with their heads. Americans just shit with the hands of the Turks and badly shit on Russian interests in the South Caucasus and shake their reputation, at least for now!
    1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex (Secret information) 20 October 2020 20: 24
      +1
      Exactly! Here the Yankees shoot a doublet - not one plan, so the second will benefit them!
    2. whitebeard Offline whitebeard
      whitebeard 21 October 2020 18: 24
      0
      Turkey, more precisely, its newly-minted Sultan Perdo Pasha, has enough of its own thoughts and intentions to interfere with the Amers, with whom in this case it will be necessary to share the pie. While Perd is clearly counting on his own strength, and he will run to Yusiya only if he gets on the nose in the Caucasus and in other places
  • Binder Online Binder
    Binder (Miron) 20 October 2020 16: 54
    -1
    The author writes as something obvious - "Ankara suffered a painful defeat from Moscow in Syria." A strange statement, in my opinion. The Turks occupied the northern regions of Syria, inhabited by the Turkomans and are not going to give them up, they occupied a buffer zone that provides them with control over the border with the territories of the Kurds, and generally feel themselves masters of the situation. So where is Moscow's victory?
    1. whitebeard Offline whitebeard
      whitebeard 21 October 2020 18: 26
      +1
      Well, how where - on the lips of the prop-s;) You were told in clear mental images:

      Russia has won a final and irrevocable disaster in Syria. For the 4th or 5th time in a row.

  • Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 20 October 2020 19: 35
    +1
    There are two friends. Samvel, works in construction, Rafik, works in retail. Good luck to both. Peter, Nerezinovaya.
  • Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 20 October 2020 23: 40
    0
    Quote: A.Lex
    Exactly! Here the Yankees shoot a doublet - not one plan, so the second will benefit them!

    I have to admit that the Americans are doing and are acting in this situation smartly!
  • Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 20 October 2020 23: 44
    +1
    Quote: Bindyuzhnik
    The author writes as something obvious - "Ankara suffered a painful defeat from Moscow in Syria." A strange statement, in my opinion. The Turks occupied the northern regions of Syria, inhabited by the Turkomans and are not going to give them up, they occupied a buffer zone that provides them with control over the border with the territories of the Kurds, and generally feel themselves masters of the situation. So where is Moscow's victory?

    That's right, the Turks, according to unofficial data, occupied about 8 thousand square kilometers, and naturally they feel great, and they act slowly and consistently, and they use terrorists for their own purposes as meat. And about the victory of Moscow, well, I don’t know, maybe a presence in the Mediterranean ?! And about the supply of our bases in Syria is also a big question if the Turks close the strait for far-fetched reasons!
  • John Hart Offline John Hart
    John Hart (John Hart) 21 October 2020 00: 13
    -2
    The UN considers the lands occupied and they should be returned, Moscow is afraid of Ankara and Su 24 has shown this, and now Ankara and Telaviv are together, and Moscow is even more afraid, since IL28 also showed this, Belarus is burning a knife in the back of Ukrainians, a brotherly people stuck in the back, now another brotherly people on the devouring would give up if only the property in the west did not touch the officials, ankara and NATO showed the red line to Moscow, if only they stick in the Karabakhs, they warm up the whole of the Russian Federation, and there is nothing to answer since all NATO sees this weapon of the future of the Russian Federation, this is a weapon of the past, c300 slapped the shells like spanking nuts, and the reasoning that the calculations are poorly trained is in favor of the poor, it means such bad teachers
  • Cucumbers Offline Cucumbers
    Cucumbers (Cucumbers) 21 October 2020 12: 35
    +1
    Pashinyan is a provocateur, a Trojan horse. His task is to involve Russia in this war. Then Ukraine will catch up, Georgia. Who else is offended there - the Baltic states, Poland. You can't use nuclear weapons. And they will all climb and the west will help them. These are the prospects ... And I almost forgot the biological laboratories along our borders
  • Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 21 October 2020 18: 26
    0
    Inspired. End of the 80s. They brought one union ministry, where he worked, to the holiday home for a Saturday work day. Fully occupied by refugees from Baku. Work - you could not think of any worse, digging paths under the pine trees. The ladies were watching, there were no men ...