Possible conditions for Russia's intervention in the Karabakh conflict named


Russia seems ready to allow Azerbaijan to reclaim some areas around Nagorno-Karabakh, but under certain conditions. This conclusion is contained in a new detailed commentary published on the website of the European Council on Foreign Relations.


Yes, to date, Moscow has spent more than ten years creating the image of a great power that does not abandon its allies - be it Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Nicholas Maduro in Venezuela, Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine or Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus.

Nevertheless, the reaction of the Russian Federation to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict seems to be a serious departure from the principles of Russian policy... Why does the Kremlin refrain from at least more active diplomatic support for Armenia, one of the members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization?

As the article argues, there are several reasons for this paradox. Thus, in recent years, Russia and other international mediators have become increasingly disillusioned with Armenia's intransigence in the negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh.

In 2011, the parties agreed on the so-called Madrid principles, according to which Armenia will cede control over seven regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and will begin negotiations on the status of the territory itself.

Russia's relatively neutral reaction to recent clashes in the Transcaucasus reflects the Kremlin's frustration with an ally's inflexibility. In Moscow, as noted in the text, there is a perception that over the past two decades the balance of power has shifted in favor of Azerbaijan and that instead of sticking to a more or less acceptable deal, Armenia has acted unreasonably and uncompromisingly.

Another problem that influenced Russia's position seems to have been the current government of Armenia itself, which has established itself following large-scale street protests in 2018. Russia's annoyance by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is probably not the main reason for its reluctance to support Armenia more decisively, but it is certainly an important factor.

So the question is asked in a policy note, will Russia just stand aside and watch its ally be defeated? Yes and no. By refraining from interfering, the Russian Federation seems to be offering Azerbaijan time to return territories that are legally part of it.

Even if this happens, Armenia will still not go anywhere from Russia. It is also very likely that Russia has marked its red lines for Azerbaijan and Turkey, one of which is that the internationally recognized border of Armenia cannot be crossed.

However, it remains unclear whether a possible attempt by Azerbaijan to reclaim all of Nagorno-Karabakh crosses another of these red lines. This is likely to be the case - even though President Vladimir Putin has reminded that Russia's security guarantees for Armenia do not extend to this area.

If an aggravation occurs, which ultimately leads either to a difficult humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, or to a major offensive on the internationally recognized borders of Armenia itself, Moscow will be forced to intervene. Also, when the conflict becomes a real threat to Armenia itself, then, as noted in the article, Russia will definitely enter the war.

Nevertheless, excessive self-withdrawal from what is happening will inevitably hit the reputation of the Russian Federation in the eyes of its allies.
  • Photos used: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
5 comments
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  1. Toha from KZ Offline Toha from KZ
    Toha from KZ (Anton) 10 October 2020 07: 41
    +2
    It will hurt the reputation of the Russian Federation, in the eyes of its allies. And who are the allies? Army and navy? Why would she lose authority in their eyes?
  2. Atilla10933 Offline Atilla10933
    Atilla10933 (Atilla_az) 10 October 2020 08: 29
    -3
    I agree with the author of the article.
  3. Many_ways_point Offline Many_ways_point
    Many_ways_point 10 October 2020 11: 10
    -1
    If an aggravation occurs, which ultimately leads either to a difficult humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, or to a major offensive on the internationally recognized borders of Armenia itself, Moscow will be forced to intervene. Also, when the conflict becomes a real threat to Armenia itself, then, as noted in the article, Russia will definitely enter the war.

    Tsushima 2.0?
  4. sgrabik Offline sgrabik
    sgrabik (Sergei) 10 October 2020 11: 54
    +1
    Russia is not obliged to anyone and nothing, they remember about Russia's help only when they have real problems, remember at the most critical moments for themselves, and when everything is calm with Russia they prefer not to reckon, but we are not a rescue service, since they themselves break firewood, then let them themselves have broken everything and rake them !!!
  5. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
    Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 10 October 2020 13: 27
    -1
    Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to a ceasefire. The situation is unfrozen. Azerbaijan could not forever put up with the fact that 25% of its territory was occupied. It is a pity that in 2011, during the negotiations in Kazan, Armenia switched on reverse gear at the last moment. Bloodshed could have been avoided 9 years ago. Today we have. Baku saved its face by de-occupying certain territories, inflicting a number of sensitive blows on the enemy. Yerevan has shown that Azerbaijan is not able to hack into the Armenian defense along the entire front and de-occupy all territories. Both sides have shown that they cannot carry out long-term and large-scale actions. It looks like Yerevan will give up from five to seven districts not included in Karabakh. Question. All this lay on the surface. And it was clear from the very beginning. On the very first day of hostilities, I posted that everything would be over in a week and Yerevan would give up the regions outside Karabakh. But this is not enough. You need to implement the Goble formula.