Armenian-Azerbaijani war presents Russia with difficult choices


A distinctive feature of the new escalation of the armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is the obvious detachment of Russia from being drawn into confrontation. A tangle of contradictions between the interests of the Russian Federation and other countries, as well as the Kremlin's idea of ​​its military and political opportunities presents Moscow with a difficult choice. The resource Eurasianet writes about this.


Russia's desire to avoid participating in Armenian-Azerbaijani affairs may partly indicate the failure of the Russian Federation in resolving this 30-year-old conflict. Moscow is trying to maintain a balance by helping Yerevan while simultaneously trading arms with Baku, as well as supporting mediation initiatives. But Turkey's patronage to Azerbaijan changed this calculation of Russia, and the balance strategy began to fail - Moscow seriously thought about choosing the rules of the foreign policy game in this region.

The main dilemma for the Kremlin is the desire to "sit on two chairs." Thus, in the Minsk format, the Russian Federation feels itself “the first among equals”, using the image of a country cooperating with the West with a multilateral approach. And in the absence of the Minsk Group, Russia's actions could look like unilateral attempts by the imperial power to influence the situation.

But the principle of "acting alone" can drive the Kremlin into a corner - the Russian Federation is deprived of truly effective methods of countering Turkish drones, and also has no direct access to the zone of military conflict.

Another possible choice is the "proxification" of the war, in which Russia supports Armenia and Turkey supports Azerbaijan. But this approach is also unprofitable for Moscow, as it undermines trade and geostrategic relations with Baku.

The role of the Russian Federation as a patron of one of the parties will diminish Moscow's status in the South Caucasus as a maintaining the balance of power - its retention was precisely based on the Kremlin's evasion from accepting either side. Thus, this war presents Russia with a very difficult choice of strategy for behavior in the region, as well as its relationship to the world order.
9 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.
I have an account? Sign in
  1. GRF Offline GRF
    GRF 7 October 2020 15: 19
    0
    Russia is big, it can sit on 10 chairs.
    Well, a less comfortable chair will remain, it's not scary, we'll get used to it ...
    1. Many_ways_point Offline Many_ways_point
      Many_ways_point 7 October 2020 15: 42
      -1
      Some kind of kindergarten logic. The square kilometers of the country's area does not correlate in any way with the world position of the country. Canada is big too, so what?
  2. Seal Offline Seal
    Seal (Sergey Petrovich) 7 October 2020 15: 24
    -1
    But Turkey's patronage to Azerbaijan changed this calculation of Russia, and the balance strategy began to fail - Moscow seriously thought about choosing the rules of the foreign policy game in this region.

    Yes. Turkey should be moved as far as possible. Well, maybe for a start, block Armenia's gas pipe and demand that Azerbaijan be cleared of its presence within the borders of the Azerbaijan SSR?
  3. Tektor Offline Tektor
    Tektor (Tektor) 7 October 2020 15: 45
    +1
    But the principle of "acting alone" can drive the Kremlin into a corner - the Russian Federation is deprived of truly effective methods of confronting Turkish drones

    Who is this discerning analyst? And how does he get along with the lack of "effective methods of confronting drones and our impenetrable roof over Khmeimim?" To combat drones, you need a Zoo radar, then there are no problems.
  4. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 7 October 2020 15: 56
    -1
    Armenian-Azerbaijani war presents Russia with difficult choices

    But the principle of "acting alone" can drive the Kremlin into a corner - the Russian Federation is deprived of truly effective methods of countering Turkish drones, and also has no direct access to the zone of military conflict.

    -Russia cannot do anything ... -It is much more profitable for Russia to stay on the sidelines and maintain a "meaningful image" of a state that can easily change the whole situation in Karabakh "at the snap of its fingers"; but does not do this, observing the legality ...
    -And Turkey played this game well ... -Ignited this conflict in Karabakh (which no one needs at all); and she herself, under the cover of this conflict ... - very confidently goes to the "operational space" ... - goes to the Caspian ...
    -That's where Turkey can be supported ... - = entirely Muslim limitrophe states ...
    -And Russia does not have any support in the Caspian ... -Russia took and "honestly divided" everything itself ... -and generously endowed all of them ... "you could pull as long as you like ...
    -And now the limitrophes have their "legitimate pieces" of the Caspian water area ... -This is how Russia "tried hard" ... - everything for the neighbors ... - everything for the "brothers" ...
    -And Karabakh ... -who needs it ... -For Russia, Armenia is lost ... -It was already lost ...
    -The very fact that it was not Russia itself that organized this conflict (although it sounds blasphemous) ... -It already speaks not in favor of Russia (about its weakness) ... -Just think ... -someone under Russia's nose suits the conflict; and Russia (this "someone") leaves only the opportunity to "choose" --- whose side to take in this conflict ... and what should she do now ... -But who will respect Russia after that ...
    - We urgently need to start fighting for the Caspian ... - But Karabakh ... is already the past ...
  5. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 7 October 2020 16: 34
    0
    The Armenian-Azerbaijani war presents Russia with a difficult choice.

    At first, to pursue a policy will dissolve by itself, and when it does not dissolve, it will immediately be a difficult choice. Can he change the helmsmen? New people - new solutions!
  6. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 7 October 2020 21: 53
    -1
    All bullshit. There is no particular choice. Sell ​​spare parts for both, since you are in good relations with both.

    In Azerbaijan - friendship with Putin's friend Endogan, gas, a lifelong family, Development 2025 - in general, grace like ours. But the Muslims.
    In Armenia - Maidan, they did not give life premiership, biolaboratory, sniper and the State Department. But the loans are taken, weapons, and Christians.

    The choice is obvious.