Russia will pay for the refusal of Belarus from the Baltic ports

President Lukashenko again spoke about the reorientation of Belarusian exports from the Baltic to Russian ports. Riga and Vilnius have already begun to prepare mentally for a “new normalcy” without the same transit volumes from Belarus and Russia. But what will come out of deep integration in practice, if we take into account how Alexander Grigorievich is able to defend the interests of Minsk?

The Belarusian president yesterday held a meeting with Yuri Senko, head of the State Customs Committee of Belarus, and raised the issue of transferring the export of oil products and potash fertilizers from the Baltic ports to the Russian Ust-Luga. In addition, he raised the issue of "intercepting" the transit traffic:

As you report to me, almost 40% of the trucks that carry cargo to Belarus this year come from Lithuania and Latvia. This is a huge volume. If we take up this flow, then the logistics centers of Lithuania will receive less than a quarter.

In addition, Alexander Grigorievich decided to strike at Germany and Poland, deciding to rapidly substitute import substitution for the production of cardboard. In general, "Old Man" is very belligerent towards its Western partners. If these plans come true, neighboring Lithuania and Latvia will have a very hard time.

Moscow has already taught Riga a lesson for its Russophobic policies the transfer of exports to their ports in the Baltic, plunging the Latvian infrastructure into a severe crisis. Vilnius created problems for itself by refusing to recognize the legality of Lukashenka's elections and sheltering Svetlana Tihanovskaya. Now Lithuania is at risk of losing a third of its transit volumes. Of course, after this, neither the Riga nor the Klaipeda port will come to complete desolation, but massive redundancies in workers are ensured, and the budget will receive a very significant share of revenues, which will be a big blow for the small republics. Russia is already ready to receive from 4 to 6 million tons of Belarusian oil products. However, so far all this looks like threats and imitation of activity, and there are two good reasons for this.

At first, it is completely unclear who and how will compensate Minsk for the increased transport costs for the transportation of goods to Russian ports. President Lukashenko is transparent hintedthat this can be done at the expense of $ 3 billion “saved” on the construction of the BelNPP. There is a high probability that the burden of spending will fall on the shoulders of the Russian budget, as has happened more than once.

Secondlyas we already told, in the Belarusian export there is a mass of “gray” and “black” schemes, on which our partners from Minsk earned good money, passing cash flows past the Russian federal budget. The relocation of the transit to Ust-Luga will put an end to this, which will clearly displease many influential people in Belarus.

These are fundamental questions, without a clear answer to which about any real economic integration is out of the question. First, it is necessary to decide what format of the Union State Moscow and Minsk are trying to build. What will it be? A confederal union of two sovereign states? A united federation, where will a new district with eight subjects appear? Some new federal territory? Or can Belarus become for Russia a certain associated territory with a special status? Until we decide how we ultimately want to see the Union State, who should pay whom and for what, and specific roadmaps for its creation are not signed, it is generally incorrect to raise the issue of any compensation from Moscow to Minsk.
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  1. King3214 Offline King3214
    King3214 (Sergius) 7 October 2020 11: 06
    Why should Russia pay for "Lukashenka's revenge"?
    It's about him, Lukashenko, they personally wipe their feet. And if he does not contain his threats, then even such a melus as the Balts will generally cease to see in him not only a person, but also a biological creature in general, not to mention everyone else. It will be for the world as a "vegetable", some kind.
    Here in Russia, (taking an example from the same Belarus), you can bargain in the direction of the hobby of value for Belarus - business, nothing personal.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 7 October 2020 11: 27
      The cold propaganda war turned into a hot economic war long ago, and here all the means for victory are important. Redirection of Belarusian cargo flows to Russian railways and ports. a clear victory, therefore, there is an obvious need to support the redirection and observe rather favorable conditions for Belarus. In any case, positive results and profit will be present ...
      1. King3214 Offline King3214
        King3214 (Sergius) 7 October 2020 14: 22
        As a resident of Russia, I do not care at all about the benefits of Belarus.
        I am interested in the benefit of Russia.
        Whether it is worth giving discounts to Belarus and whether these discounts will be repulsed when transshipment of their goods through Russian ports - that's what I personally wonder.
        1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 7 October 2020 17: 05
          They'll beat them off, you don't have to worry. (See last phrase above)
          1. King3214 Offline King3214
            King3214 (Sergius) 8 October 2020 11: 29
            I would also like to see the numbers.
            1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 8 October 2020 14: 11
              I advise you to look at the more relevant figures for the sales of timber, hydrocarbons and other minerals, there are the main figures. and often not in favor of the owners - the citizens of the Russian Federation ... For transportation, contact the appropriate ministry of the Russian Federation ...
              1. King3214 Offline King3214
                King3214 (Sergius) 8 October 2020 14: 55
                Therefore, the confidence that the costs will be "beaten off" is purely speculative and not supported by figures.
                1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 8 October 2020 15: 16
                  You are like a schoolboy who needs to explain everything ...
                  1. King3214 Offline King3214
                    King3214 (Sergius) 8 October 2020 20: 12
                    Yes, somehow I am not accustomed to believe "on the word" who knows who or who knows (this is about the liar Lukashenko).
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 7 October 2020 11: 26
    And in the early articles, everyone was just choking:
    Lukashenka will pay Putin, they will fall at the feet of the Kremlin, they will change as a pawn that has won back ...

    And now they are humiliatingly pondering how much more the state budget of Russia will pay to Belarus ...
  3. Glennie Offline Glennie
    Glennie (Andrei) 7 October 2020 12: 17
    To squeeze and threaten our FSE!
    1. King3214 Offline King3214
      King3214 (Sergius) 7 October 2020 14: 24
      Russia is not an ATM or an almshouse. Didn't you know?
  4. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 7 October 2020 13: 38
    These are fundamental questions

    Why weren't these fundamental questions raised when the SP-2 was being built, the Power of Siberia, the Turkish Stream and many other projects? Something no one worried about the loss! Yes, Lukoshenko needs help, just for his views! And the fact that someone thinks that it is not economically profitable because it depends on the level of education. Or does someone think that raising the retirement age was economically justified? Chubais alone is worth something for the Russian economy! And Kiriyenko? Our default. What are Putin's advisers! Plus the grunting fans on all sites. Only now they were worried about the "Maidan" in Belarus, and as soon as they calmed down again for the old - here it is !!
    1. King3214 Offline King3214
      King3214 (Sergius) 7 October 2020 14: 25
      How can you help someone who does not recognize the territorial integrity of Russia?
  5. bobba94 Offline bobba94
    bobba94 (Vladimir) 7 October 2020 14: 04
    About six months ago, purely out of interest, I decided to calculate how much the United States allocates gratuitous financial aid to the countries of the Middle East (Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Israel). For the period from 2003 to 2019, I counted not tens, but more than one hundred billion dollars. Billions. Free of charge. Interestingly, they do not steal only in Israel (every year $ 3,5 billion free of charge), little is stolen in Egypt (every year $ 1,2 billion free of charge). In Jordan, more or less. In the rest of the country, this financial aid is being stolen with terrible force. The moral for the Americans is simple: if you don't pay, baihu will sneak up unnoticed. For reference: baihu is Chinese fox.
    1. King3214 Offline King3214
      King3214 (Sergius) 7 October 2020 14: 26
      Get yourself a machine that prints dollars and also allocate.
  6. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 7 October 2020 14: 07
    - In general ... - Today it is very difficult to understand Moscow's policy ...
    -If this whole ... this ... this "very bad game" was started only for that; so that Lo (Lukashenka), under pressure, would agree to "abandon the Baltic ports" ... -that is rather small for such a game ... -this ... as "the mountain gave birth to a mouse" ...
    -These "ports" in Belarus itself do little to decide ... -Well, the Russian oligarchs have taken a fat piece from Belarusian businessmen ... basics ??? -So., Or what ??? -And what about the "Belarusian unrest" ??? -It is unlikely that Moscow will want to continue relations with Lo ... - this is already a waste material (I repeat again) ...
    - And then again ... - another "oddity" ... - "Again and again" suddenly a certain Medvedchuk arrives from Ukraine, who should not be allowed on the threshold (who is he anyway); but he is received (on break) in the Kremlin both by our prime minister and our guarantor ... -Yes ...
    1. King3214 Offline King3214
      King3214 (Sergius) 7 October 2020 14: 27
      Belarus is a small, impoverished country. There, by definition, NO FATTY PIECES!
      (Excluding potash mines)
      1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
        gorenina91 (Irina) 7 October 2020 15: 29
        Belarus is a small, impoverished country. There, by definition, NO FATTY PIECES!

        - In the "lost ports" themselves ... -the "gold mine" was hidden ... - "Running-slow-moving" product; cargo subject to "sanction pressure"; part of the "re-labeled" smuggling (after all, land-based Belarus managed to supply seafood to Russia) ...; and even ... and ... and "delivery-dispatch" of weapons, "sanctioned equipment"; a huge number of various official bribes, corruption ... - In a word, everything that exists in all ports around the world ...
        - And all this will now, by and large, belong to the port Russian mafia oligarchy ...
        1. King3214 Offline King3214
          King3214 (Sergius) 8 October 2020 11: 28
          These are "kopecks" that no normal "oligarch" would even look towards.
  7. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 8 October 2020 13: 29
    These are "kopecks" that no normal "oligarch" would even look towards.

    -Well, what can you say ... -if giant transshipment seaports ... -that's a "penny"; then the Vostochny cosmodrome ... is a childish prank at all ... -A balloon ...- well, it burst and burst ... which does not happen in "children's games" ...
    - Once Onassis began to simply "tax" on the seas and oceans ... - It seemed that he did not produce anything and did not seem to sell anything (except for his freight); and suddenly became one of the richest people in the world ...
  8. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Alexander) 9 October 2020 11: 51
    It all depends on Putin and the company and their desire to get four points in front of Minsk! Lukashenka today is not in those conditions to dictate something to the Russian Federation, under him not just a chair swung, but the earth swayed and without the Russian Federation they would simply hang him, on the first bitch! If Sasha is so stupid that he has not yet understood this, these are his problems and his zakadyk, which are with him at the trough, and not the Russian Federation! Lukashenko in the form in which he was before the Maidan attempt in the Republic of Belarus is a parasite sick of Russophobia, and not an ally, and the Russian Federation does not need such a Lukashenko, in Minsk they must clearly REALIZE this if they want to save their lives and power!