Skirmish for Idlib: Damascus and Ankara may launch simultaneously

Russia and Turkey have come close to yet another clash in northern Syria. If six months ago the parties managed to achieve an armistice in Idlib, since then no one needed the war, today both Ankara and Moscow are more or less interested in aggravating the conflict.

President Erdogan made a loud statement:

The terrorist zones that still exist in Syria must either be cleared as promised, or we will come and do it ourselves.

"Terrorist zones" are, in the understanding of the Turkish leader, the border regions of the SAR inhabited by Syrian Kurds. Ankara has already made several interventions there, building a so-called "buffer zone" and squeezing out ethnic Kurds from there. This statement may well be considered a threat to Turkey to launch another military operation in Syria. The increased activity in this direction can be considered a direct consequence of the failed blitzkrieg in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Azerbaijani army, in spite of the fact that it is pumped up with Turkish and Israeli weapons and is considered objectively the strongest in the Transcaucasus, could not immediately break the resistance of Armenia, behind which Russia stands. Taking control of several settlements can hardly be considered an overwhelming success, and there is no need to talk about the entire Nagorno-Karabakh. Theoretically, Baku and Ankara can jointly defeat Yerevan in the course of a full-scale and bloody war, but this will be a completely different story, which can be interpreted as a new Armenian genocide, and then Moscow will have to intervene. Since it will not be possible to achieve a decisive victory, Presidents Erdogan and Aliyev are interested in having time to occupy as large a territory of Karabakh as possible and to fix this result politically. Turkey's threat to launch a new military operation against Syria may well be considered an attempt to put pressure on the Kremlin in order to enter into negotiations with the best trump cards in hand.

The paradox is that the aggravation in Idlib may be beneficial for the Russian leadership. The "Sultan" is playing a rather subtle game in Nagorno-Karabakh, forcing Russia to directly stand up for Armenia. If this happens, Baku will declare that Moscow can no longer claim neutral status in the settlement of this territorial conflict, and will call on the US and the EU countries as mediators in the negotiations in the new format. This will seriously change the balance of power in Transcaucasia not in favor of Russia, therefore it is objectively beneficial for the Kremlin to give an “answer” to Ankara on a different territory. In particular, in Syria.

For its part, Damascus has long been "sharpening its teeth" on the northern Idlib, controlled by the Turks. Six months ago, large forces of the government army of the SAR were concentrated there. A few days ago, prominent Syrian parliamentarian Savfan Kurabi said in a media interview that a new war is coming in Idlib. The minimum program involves the liberation of the entire M-4 highway, and as a maximum - the complete squeezing out of the Turkish army and militants controlled by Ankara.

Taken together, this means that at the same time Turkey, Syria and Russia may be interested in the beginning of the next "battle for Idlib", on the outcome of which a lot will depend. If the allies gain the upper hand, the Kremlin will receive a serious lever of pressure on Ankara in the negotiations to resolve the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, where Russia can maintain its position. If the Turks achieve their goal, they will gain an advantage in two territorial conflicts at once. There is a lot at stake.
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  1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 4 October 2020 13: 08
    The author does not consider relations between Russia and Turkey in a broader strategic context, which is the main thing in these relations. And neither Turkey nor Russia will gain anything by standing on opposite sides of the barricades in minor conflicts. Although for Russia today the loss of Armenia is more profitable, which is already clearly redirected to the West and the United States (the prohibition of the Russian language in Armenia! And others ...). Therefore, the outcome of these conflicts will be decided at the level of R. Erdogan and V. Putin ...
    1. Eduard Aplombov (Eduard Aplombov) 4 October 2020 18: 21
      in such problems of big players where many interested parties (states) are involved, the outcome largely depends on large and small details that for many reasons are not known to the media, and even more so to ordinary people like me or you, therefore, categorical and * bold * conclusions on the pages of the media are quite enough for us funny if not frankly
      1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 4 October 2020 20: 50
        It is not necessary to raise second-rate trifles to the rank of insurmountable obstacles ... Constant political events provide a basis for forecasting, therefore I do not see other second-rate conventions that you are trying to attach importance to. Such statements are more like a finger raised meaningfully to me ...
        1. Eduard Aplombov (Eduard Aplombov) 4 October 2020 21: 04
          even I understand that there are no trifles in politics .. okay, sorry, predict further
    2. Bitter Offline Bitter
      Bitter 5 October 2020 21: 12
      ... for Russia today, it is more profitable to lose to Armenia, which is already clearly redirected to the West and the United States ...

      It is because of this very redirection that the situation has become a dead end. recourse To play it back someday, it will take a lot of time and resources. It may be easier to raise concerns and move the investment vector somewhere in South America or Central Africa. It's probably much easier to work there, although there you can face the Chinese with their heads. Hmm, a dilemma. recourse

      ... the outcome of these conflicts will be decided at the level of R. Erdogan and V. Putin ...

      It is impossible to do without the Americans with the Kurds in the convoy, precisely because of the very redirection. But they are not asking for trouble, the local lobby led by Pashinyan is quietly working for them.
  2. boriz Online boriz
    boriz (boriz) 4 October 2020 18: 56
    When making any predictions, people usually proceed from the assumption that the actors of world politics are at least sane.
    We, however, are currently observing that one of the influential players in the region is clearly out of control.
    Erdogan said Jerusalem is a Turkish city.
    You can think anything and hope for anything. But to myself. You can take some action. But I’m quiet. Until you can back your words and hopes with real resources.
    Such an ally will nullify all the advantages of Azerbaijan's positions.
    We are waiting for how Israel will react to this statement.
    1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
      Natan bruk (Nathan Brook) 5 October 2020 11: 26
      Yes, he will not react in any way. The dog barks - the wind carries. There is nothing behind this air concussion. I wrote here what Erdogan's words are worth - after the Israeli special forces laid down a dozen Turkish militants who began to bullshit during the seizure of the Navi Marmara ship, trying to break through to Gaza, despite the categorical Israeli ban, and the ship itself was brought to the port of Ashdod. Erdogan beat himself in the chest with his heel and his mother swore that he would personally arrive in Gaza on a Turkish cruiser. But somehow he did not arrive anywhere, apparently he was very busy , and then I forgot about it :))) And what is interesting, diplomatic relations, trade, tourism - everything is as it was and remains, the planes fly to Turkey one after another (now, however, because of the crown, much less, but This is all over the world so far) This is all you need to know about Erdogan's promises and threats against those who can give him in response across the entire Sultan's face.
  3. Gennady1959 Offline Gennady1959
    Gennady1959 (Gennady) 5 October 2020 10: 42
    What kind of war with Turkey? Russia has just given Turkey a gas pipeline, now it is building a nuclear power plant as a gift. War means to bury all investments in these projects. Yes, Putin will be slaughtered by their oligarchs in the toilet for this. Loot is more important than the lives of some Armenians. Turks will slaughter Armenians, and Putin and Lavrov will puff out their cheeks and express concern .. Erdogan threw Putin like a sucker.