Three options for resolving the Karabakh conflict: how are they beneficial or disadvantageous for the RF

The latest, which has attracted the attention of the whole world, the armed conflict once again flared up, as they say, in "our underbelly." And it is all the more painful for Russia, because once again this is happening in the post-Soviet space and between the two peoples and states that we consider fraternal, and with which we have, individually, after the collapse of the USSR, nevertheless established good friendly relations.

Of course, we are talking about Nagorno-Karabakh. This problem is long-standing and well-known. In part, I have already touched on it in article “We must beat first”: the geopolitical alignment around Russia is constantly deteriorating ”here, on“ Reporter ”. Therefore, I will not analyze the complex and long history, but I will go straight to what we have and what can be done with it.

On a small territory between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which is nominally a part of Azerbaijan, a real war is going on, using all the combat capabilities and technical means available there. The parties to the conflict, however, themselves somewhat denounce the seriousness of the situation with their loud statements - in a couple of days of hostilities, due to the losses of both sides in the ground military technology, according to them, it goes to hundreds of units, and aviation to dozens ... Even taking into account the notorious Caucasian, to put it mildly, imagery in expressions, the picture is drawn fantastic - something comparable either with Stalingrad, or with the Kursk Bulge, not less. Although all sober-minded people understand that there is nothing like that there by definition, and it cannot be. At least based on the fact that the scale of the participants, with all due respect, is not the same.

Nevertheless, the conflict flared up with renewed vigor, people are dying, including civilians, and some international and regional players are already trying to derive their own benefit from all this. It is quite possible that a little later it will become clear that the very beginning of hostilities was provoked by someone from the outside. But for now we will also leave this out of brackets. Now it is necessary to somehow stop all this, but how? There are three principally possible schemes, and it is them that I am going to briefly consider in terms of benefits or disadvantages specifically for the Russian Federation. And the fact that it is the Russian Federation that this whole conflict is not beneficial in any way, I think, is clear to everyone. So you will definitely have to actively intervene in its resolution.

The options are as follows:

1. An attempt (yet another) of a broad international solution, whether within the framework of regional powers, a group of "interests" such as the Minsk, OSCE, UN or something similar;
2. Independent intervention of Russia with appeals and proposals to both sides;
3. Actions within the framework of the CSTO and, possibly, even the SCO.

So what can come of all this.

Option one - "International community"

This means convening some kind of conference under the auspices of some existing international organization, etc. All this, as we know, including on this issue, has already happened. And, judging by the situation today, it did not lead to anything. And with a glance at the state of what is now called "international law", it cannot lead to anything - this very "international law" has no levers of influence on anything in general in the modern world. I’m already silent about the fact that they interpret it, rightly so, too, everyone who wants to and how they want or seem more profitable. In the best case scenario, the fire will be stopped again for a while, and the conflict will “freeze” until the next “spark”. And those sparks are there, oh, how many people want to constantly strike!

The first, of course, will be Turkey, with its manners of a new Ottoman Empire the size of the entire Middle East. The Turks are already completely and completely engaged in the conflict, as they want to present from the outside, on the side of the Turkic Azerbaijan that is close to them. But in fact, of course, on the side they are there exclusively on their own, with all that it implies. And even if the conflict is frozen again for a while, this will certainly not stop the Turks from strengthening their positions in this region, not excluding the introduction of terrorist groups under their control from Syrian territory, where they are now having a hard time. All this can end, no doubt, even much worse than even now. This will be the second Syria or Libya, but already in the post-Soviet space. I think there is no need to explain the consequences for the Russian Federation.

And those who, as it were, cry out for peace from the West, from Europe and America, do not look very sincere against the background of everything that is happening. Well, judge for yourself: on the one hand, all this, of course, is another serious problem for the Russian Federation and in the immediate vicinity of Russia, while quite far from the EU, not to mention the United States. And what, if not creating all kinds of problems for us from all sides, have the Westerners been busy all the last, at least twenty years? This fits well with their strategic concept of weakening and slowing down Russia, undermining its newly growing influence on the world stage. Well, how not to take advantage of this opportunity? ... On the other hand, some European states, the United States, and even within the NATO bloc have recently been having various serious conflicts with Turkey. And then there is such an opportunity to really bargain with Erdogan: like, “we really, so be it, we won't interfere with you in Armenia and Azerbaijan, butt the Russians there as you want, and you, my friend, stop climbing, for example, in Cypriot territorial waters, buy Russian weapons, build gas pipelines with them, nuclear power plants, etc., and in general, within the framework of the Alliance, behave more decently. " Well, or something like that.

In my opinion, this is a very realistic option. Moreover, Erdogan is also not almighty, to fight in Libya, and in Syria, and in the Mediterranean Sea with the Greeks and the French is definitely beyond his power, and he understands this. And he also understands that if he finally quarrels with NATO, then there will be no one to ask for support, if something goes wrong ... So I would end up with the international format. In my opinion, everything is clear, and for us this is not an option.

Option two - Russia "settles" independently

Is this option possible? Available. We have already proven this in Syria. But there we, in fact, stood on one of the parties to the conflict, and here for us it would be a huge strategic mistake with very far-reaching consequences. Entering as some kind of neutral force is also an exit. But in this case, we, at least partially, will worsen relations, again, with both parties. Everyone and from all sides will begin to accuse us of imperial manners and interference in the affairs of sovereign states. And then wait for the next sanctions. At the same time, all external players will certainly and, unlike the previous plan, already openly "put a spoke in our wheels" in all possible ways and from all sides - such an independent strengthening of Russia in the region is unprofitable for anyone, neither the Turks, nor the Iranians, nor the Westerners. The Armenian communities in the United States and France, of course, have some weight, but ... let's really not exaggerate it - this will not have any impact on world geopolitics, no matter how anyone wants. And the final result of the "Karabakh showdown" for the Russian Federation, with all this, remains very ambiguous, and its achievement will take a lot of time - perhaps years, and, of course, funds. And this is with complete opposition to the process from almost all sides. Do we need it like this? Not sure.

Option three - CSTO

When I mention this organization, now in connection with Belarus, now now with Armenia, I constantly get the feeling that the main principle of the CSTO is the obligation of the Russian Federation to protect someone from something. Yes, undoubtedly, Russia is the strongest and largest power in this bloc. However, it is a "collective security" organization. And this principle is embedded right in its name. That is, if in this particular case, as a result of the Karabakh conflict, the interests of Armenia are directly exposed to a military threat from outside, then both the Russian Federation and all other members should be protected within the framework of the treaty: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan equally least. Therefore, based on the proposal or request of Armenia, the entire council of the leaders of the member states should be convened, at which a common (!) Decision will be made.

Thus, it will no longer look like a one-sided regional demarche of the Russian Federation, and it will be much more difficult to blame us from any side. If the CSTO members make a decision to protect Armenia within the framework of this treaty, it is necessary to bring military contingents of all member states into the region, except for Russia, since we already have a base there - a very good reason once again "not to ask for trouble." Moreover, it is necessary to introduce contingents in such a way that, if possible, somehow divide the warring parties by them, and the Russian base will provide a no-fly zone over the region. That is, even within the framework of the CSTO, it will most likely be an international peacekeeping operation, and not unequivocal support for one side of the conflict. And this will soften the situation again. The possible discontent of Azerbaijanis will no longer be unambiguously directed towards the Russian Federation. And local large "predators" like Turkey and Iran will not be so self-confident either.

Moreover, the Russian Federation and all of the above CSTO members, just besides Armenia, are, together with China, also members of the SCO, with Iran, India, Pakistan and Mongolia as observers. And this card, I suppose, must also be played. Even the passive support of China on this issue means a lot, especially given Iran's increased dependence on Chinese comrades in recent years. And China is hardly interested in a strong imbalance of the situation just on the territory of the construction of its Eurasian dream - the "New Silk Road", so there is a reason to intervene, at least at the level of moralpolitical support. And maybe not only ... In this format, it seems to me, Azerbaijan will be "quieter" and all other interested parties will subside slightly. If the fact of the presence of alien terrorist groups in the conflict zone is confirmed, it is quite possible by joint forces, both the CSTO and the SCO, to organize a joint international counter-terrorist operation in the region, which is also directly in the interests of all participants.

If in this way the situation in Karabakh is taken under control, I consider necessary a general meeting of the heads of the CSTO member states plus Azerbaijan. At which, finally, the leadership of the Russian Federation, after describing the general state of affairs and confirming the presence of serious external threats in the post-Soviet space, should, as they say, point out the question of creating a new common perimeter of security and mutual integration, possibly similar to the Schengen space without internal borders ... This, in turn, will dramatically reduce tensions in places such as Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover, it should be offered in such a way that it would be very difficult to refuse. And at the same time to remind that the next historical interwar period of the "parade of sovereignty" and "multi-vector" is inexorably coming to an end. And for now, you can choose a side voluntarily, in accordance with your historical experience, habits and real national interests. Soon it will all end and small states will simply start to derban stronger players, as it was before.

At the same time, I do not think that, at least at this stage, the PRC will somehow be against such a decision - they have a clear economic ways to expand their own influence, and they need to be convinced that the formation of a new large bloc without internal borders will only simplify their economic activities in the region.

And if Russia wants to develop further as a world superpower, or an empire, or simply the world's largest independent and self-sufficient state, whoever likes it, then it simply has no other way. And the sooner you start doing this, the more chances for success. Otherwise, following Pridnestrovie, Ukraine, Belarus and Karabakh, our enemies, “partners,” will set fire to something else, which we are not indifferent to. They certainly won't stop. And we? ... Will we settle down again or, finally, will we take responsibility for the future of the peoples of Russia and those for whom Russia has assumed this responsibility for centuries? ... After all, where would the same Armenians be now without Russians? Apparently, only in history textbooks ... And everyone else, the same "independent", also have something to remember ...

So I personally like option # 3. Who is for - vote and write letters to our leadership. What if it helps?

I would really like that. If it works out, then it will definitely be easier to communicate with the rest of the world from such positions. It is also high time to toughly, and in no other way, finally solve the problems of Donbass and Transnistria, not paying attention to the howl of the "democratic and free" world. And there, you see, we will build Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok, only on the conditions as we need it, and not to anyone else. They there, in the West, only declare freedom and democracy, and they themselves do not understand, do not perceive or respect anything but strength. And we also know this from our own rich historical experience.

Well, somehow ... And all this is not an ideology and development goal for a superpower? ... In my opinion, it is just quite suitable.
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  1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 3 October 2020 21: 37
    A vivid example of the mistake of not including Karabakh in Armenia as a part of the state. Therefore, there is now a protracted war with the controversial formation of Karabakh, and Azerbaijan is fighting with all its might, and the Armenians cannot use all the power of the Armenian Armed Forces ... This is projected into the Donbass and Transnistria for Russia, one cannot resolve such fundamental issues by half measures. Recognizing the passed votes of the LPR and DPR and including them in the Russian Federation, then the issue will definitely be settled, otherwise the resumption of hostilities is inevitable.
    1. Bakht Online Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 October 2020 23: 07
      Karabakh could not be included in Armenia. Comrade Stalin was involved in the affairs of nationalities in the 20s. If he was tough (cruel), no one ever considered him a fool. And for some reason he decided that South Ossetia should be part of Georgia. And Nagorno-Karabakh is a part of Azerbaijan. By the way, old documents say that the peasants of Nagorno-Karabakh (including the Armenians) very much asked to be included in the composition of Azerbaijan. And there were very, very good reasons for that.
      Even now, it can be seen with the naked eye.
  2. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
    Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 3 October 2020 21: 47
    Finish off, but the winners are not judged.
  3. lahudra Offline lahudra
    lahudra (Nikolay Kondrashkin) 3 October 2020 22: 02
    The Karabakh problem can be solved only by inflicting a military defeat on Armenia.
  4. Bakht Online Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 October 2020 22: 23
    Are you going to send Russian troops (others will refuse) to the territory of Azerbaijan?
  5. Lysik001 Offline Lysik001
    Lysik001 (boy Seryozha) 3 October 2020 23: 09
    The people of Armenia have chosen an anti-Russian President! I chose it myself! Nobody forced it on him! The people of Armenia have accepted this anti-Russian position and the policy of their President! And the people of Armenia will pay a dear price for this stupidity. As you know, stupidity ... the most expensive thing is that you have to pay the most for it. And do not even hope that Russia will harness your showdown with Azerbaijan! This will not happen! So thank you for saving the lives of our soldiers with your stupidity!
    1. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 4 October 2020 06: 47
      Boy Seryozha. In the modern world, the people cannot be responsible for the chosen leader, says one who does not know the technologies of elections. Elections in today's world are a game of thimbles. And when all the blame is blamed on the people, it is a desire to warm up the situation.
  6. Bakht Online Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 October 2020 00: 34
    Peskov named the condition for sending Russian peacekeepers to Karabakh
    1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 4 October 2020 02: 01
      ... this is my article, apparently, has not yet had time to read it! request
      1. GRF Offline GRF
        GRF 4 October 2020 05: 37
        the introduction of peacekeepers, by agreement with all parties to the conflict, is the fourth option, which is not described in your article ...
        after all, in the second case, proposed by you, Russia takes care of itself, i.e. without any agreements, just like the Americans, which is unrealistic, however ...
        1. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 4 October 2020 06: 50
          Once again, after South Ossetia, there is no need to substitute people.
        2. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
          Pishenkov (Alexey) 4 October 2020 11: 23
          There are, in fact, more options. I do not insist that my humble opinion is the ultimate truth. The comment above regarding Peskov is, of course, a joke. There are all sorts of options, the question is in their real feasibility - none of the parties will agree to lead the peacekeepers now, since they will not agree on WHERE they should stand, on which line.
          The Russian Federation will be able to resolve it on its own, it has already been proven, and I wrote about this. The United States itself, just, has not ruled anything anywhere, but only got stuck in conflicts. They got in on their own, and then began hastily to create various "coalitions", giving their actions some form of international legitimacy.
      2. Bakht Online Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 October 2020 09: 26
        The most realistic plan is the one proposed long ago. Armenia leaves the occupied regions, the war ends and Nagorno-Karabakh receives the status of autonomy. With a regional language, with its own self-governing bodies, but within Azerbaijan. Both G.Aliyev and I.Aliyev have proposed this repeatedly. In response, we heard that 7 regions represent the "security belt" and Armenia will not give them up. I have said a hundred times that this is a "danger belt".
        It has often been argued that the Armenian army is the strongest in the South Caucasus. And again, it has been said a hundred times that the situation has changed. There will be no guerrilla units. There will be a unified army under control. And the battles will be fought with artillery. Under artillery and rocket fire, no Rambo will survive.
        Now the situation has changed dramatically. I have always been against the war and for the autonomy regime within Azerbaijan. The Armenians rejected this option. It is no longer visible. Although I. Aliyev does not exclude normal relations with Armenia in the future. And it offers peace and participation in regional economic projects.
        1. Bakht Online Bakht
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 October 2020 09: 33
          I am often asked why I support Donbass and do not support Karabakh. The answer is simple. Because these are different conflicts and a different approach. If Kiev offers Donbass autonomy with its own language and its own self-government bodies, then the war there will end. But Kiev, unlike Baku, does not offer this.
          Conflicts have different causes. But the methodology for resolving them should be the same.
          There is another difference in approach. This concerns the position of the West. The West imposed sanctions against Russia and did not impose them on Armenia. On the contrary, the United States imposed sanctions against Azerbaijan. Therefore, I do not see any similarity in these two conflicts.
          But I often say that Donbass as part of a neutral non-aligned Ukraine with the rights of autonomy is the way to solve the problem. As well as Karabakh as a part of neutral non-aligned Azerbaijan.
        2. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
          Pishenkov (Alexey) 4 October 2020 11: 33
          Your opinion is definitely correct. But there are too many of those who do not like it, do not like it at all to be quiet there, and this includes the forces that put Pashinyan in the prime minister's chair. So how can they reasonably agree there?
          Personally, I fully admit that in modern Azerbaijan no one will commit any genocide over the Armenians.
          But if the Turks really enter the region, neither the Armenians, nor the Georgians, nor the Azerbaijanis will find it too small.
          1. Bakht Online Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 October 2020 12: 22
            What do you mean "the Turks will enter"? Azerbaijan will lose its independence? Is Aliyev to become governor instead of president?
            1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
              Pishenkov (Alexey) 4 October 2020 15: 03
              But why? He can continue to be called the President or Pasha, as he likes, nominally, and Azerbaijan will most likely remain an independent state. And in fact, it will become a part of Turkey, like Adjara ...
              This is an even better scenario, in the worst case, Azerbaijan will become another devastated eastern state with a constant war on its own territory, which has lost its wealth, comfort, and actual independence ... And in this war, as in Syria, all and sundry will climb to rip off your piece of the pie ...
              1. Bakht Online Bakht
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 October 2020 15: 38
                I don’t think so. It's all far-fetched
                1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
                  Pishenkov (Alexey) 4 October 2020 15: 58
                  God forbid that this be so, and not in the version of Western Syria today or Northern Cyprus in the last century.
              2. Bakht Online Bakht
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 October 2020 15: 49
                These are all emotions. The most reasonable option was proposed by H. Aliyev 20 years ago. The first and necessary condition is that Armenia liberates the occupied regions. Moreover, H. Aliyev agreed to 6 out of 7. After that, the negotiation process begins. And without outside players. Two safety circles are created. The small circle is Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia. Solve their problems. The big circle is the guarantors and arbitrators - Russia, Iran, Turkey. And no external players who are sitting far away.
                1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
                  Pishenkov (Alexey) 4 October 2020 16: 40
                  And without outside players. Two safety circles are created. The small circle is Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia. Solve their problems. The big circle is the guarantors and arbitrators - Russia, Iran, Turkey. And no external players who are sitting far away.

                  - Who will allow them all this? On your own? And which of them is really an independent player? Since the collapse of the USSR, they have not solved their national problems in any way, but only aggravated and multiplied.
                  And as for the guarantors and arbitrators - ask Yanukovych how it works. Or look at today's Ukraine in the light of the Minsk group, guarantors, etc. The "guarantors" themselves are already fighting over Belarus. In general, I don’t remember something, in this century, at least when such formats led to something good. As a maximum of success - another freeze of the conflict, but for how long no one will tell you, neither the participants, nor the "guarantors" ...
                  1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
                    Pishenkov (Alexey) 4 October 2020 16: 43
                    PS ... if you mean Syria as an example, then do not forget that at first the RF Armed Forces were ironing everything there for a long time and persistently, and then a certain format with "guarantors" appeared. And the way everything is there can hardly be called stability and silence. Do you want this future for Azerbaijan? With such guarantors?
                  2. Bakht Online Bakht
                    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 October 2020 16: 56
                    Then you will have to endure the presence of outsiders. States, Germany, France. The format of those interested is suggested. And who told you that we ourselves cannot solve our problems?
                    I do not like this proposal - the other will be even worse. Depending on the result, one of the parties will go to the West. And there will be American bases here. Not Turkish, but American.
                    Latest news from the front - Azerbaijan is all Jabrayil. That is, Karabakh is cut off from Iran.
        3. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
          Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 10 October 2020 18: 09
          The most realistic plan is the one proposed long ago. Armenia leaves the occupied regions, the war ends and Nagorno-Karabakh receives the status of autonomy. With a regional language, with its own self-government bodies, but within Azerbaijan

          That is how it is, however, having solved one problem, two others will appear - the Crimea and the DPR-LPR.
          1. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
            Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 10 October 2020 18: 10
            Plus the Transnistrian Republic
            1. Bakht Online Bakht
              Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 10 October 2020 18: 51
              Transnistria is a completely different situation. I am not good at the details of that conflict. But, it seems, they are talking about the absorption of Moldova by Romania.
          2. Bakht Online Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 10 October 2020 18: 49
            Crimea is no longer a problem. Crimea is part of the Russian Federation and this is no longer discussed. I propose DNR-LPR according to the same scheme. I wrote

            Conflicts have different causes. But the methodology for resolving them should be the same.

            But that's all in the past. Armenia refused this option for 20 years. And now the war has changed everything. I. Aliyev is absolutely right, asserting that

            the former status quo is no longer and never will be.

            There will be a new reality.
  7. GRF Offline GRF
    GRF 4 October 2020 06: 13
    Well, somehow ... And all this is not an ideology and development goal for a superpower? ... In my opinion, it is just quite suitable.

    To fight under the cover of someone, or even better by someone else's hands, is undoubtedly effective, but before we were not like that, on the contrary, we were eager to fight for someone doing a "disservice", for which later their descendants "thank" that not a drop does not detract from our heroism and self-sacrifice for the sake of justice ...
    Considering that robots can play the role of someone else's hands, is it necessary to change when you can just vigorously develop robotics from production and defense, to helping to restore order abroad in your own interests.
    It’s good to rely on someone until the “allys” with the dushmans are in the rear of the shura-mura ...
  8. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 4 October 2020 06: 55
    It is clear that this situation is very unpleasant for Russia. The CSTO probably stipulated the conditions under which assistance should be provided. Talking to Armenia and Azerbaijan is already useless; you need to talk to players who want to join this war.
    1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 4 October 2020 11: 51
      You need to talk to players who want to join this war.

      - it will be a discussion with market thimblers about fair rules for playing for money. And with the same end result.
      1. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 4 October 2020 15: 27
        Alexey. We have exactly the same market players.
        1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
          Pishenkov (Alexey) 4 October 2020 15: 56
          ... as I have been observing recently, our "market people" are not yet in the position of a player in thimbles, but just a shoeless sucker who is trying to pump rights "on concepts" with rollers. At a time when it is high time to hit the face. Bargaining with katals in any format ends with only one thing - shoeing a sucker
      2. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 4 October 2020 15: 30
        Alexey. The bourgeoisie has no epithets. I always find it funny when our bourgeoisie is called positive.
  9. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 4 October 2020 09: 46
    Three options for resolving the Karabakh conflict: how are they beneficial or disadvantageous for the RF

    -The author got into such a jungle that you can't get out of them ...
    -It can be reminded once again that Russia never had allies; they are not even now; and will never be ... -Belarus already ... -also "does not count" ...
    -Russia is profitable today ... if Azerbaijan finally won this conflict ... -But it looks like it won't succeed ... -Everything will end again with a "shaky truce" ... -And each ( Armenia and Azerbaijan) will again declare themselves "winners" ...
    -Americans in this case win this party; Pashinyan is again "on horseback" and will again behave disrespectfully with Moscow ...
    -What Moscow ... -It lost here too ... -Despite the behavior of this Pashinyan ... -Moscow will again be forced to this, not quite friendly Pashinyan ... -to supply its weapons for free ... -And who is for will it pay ??? -It's clear and so ...
    - But Russia is losing the game to Europe too ... - Because. Russia is already considered by the whole world to be Turkey's closest supporter and its ally and closest assistant (it’s how Russia must manage to ... get into such a d___ mo); then all Erdogan's failures ... -At least directly, at least indirectly, they fall on the reputation of Russia ... -And Erdogan ... - everything is "like water off a duck's back" ... -All will again blame Russia, which "pulled out" Erdogan literally "from the rags ... to the riches" ...
    - All this obviously does not add anything good to the already very shaky reputation of Russia ...
    -And Russia will continue to try to sit on two chairs ... - to play both for Iran and for Turkey ... -the result of this is clear in advance ...
    -Americans will continue to put pressure on Iran and tighten the leash on which they have Armenia ...; and Turkey remains in the allies of the Americans ... -Turkey will always be needed by the United States, at least as a counterbalance and necessary for them ... the eternal enemy of Iran ... -Today, the United States released Turkey to feed and feed on Russian gratuitous bounties ... And soon they will again take over Turkey ...
    -Russia is losing in all directions ... -I can do without details ... -the topic is not the same ...
    -Of all this ... -China obviously wins .. -He, as always, did not lose anything ...
    1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 4 October 2020 11: 45
      I have noticed for a long time that you have a personal dislike for China. wink but it’s not clear that the Chinese would benefit from the mess in a region of great interest to them. And also from which it follows that

      Russia is already considered by the whole world to be Turkey's closest supporter and its ally and closest assistant

      ??? In my opinion, the Turks themselves are not aware of this fact, not to mention the others.
      Otherwise, thanks for reading the article and a long and serious comment. hi
  10. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 10 October 2020 17: 43
    1. An attempt (another) of a broad international solution, whether within the framework of regional powers, a group of "interests" such as Minsk, OSCE, UN or something similar;

    The agreement reached in Moscow on the invariability of the format of negotiations means the desire of the Russian Federation to exclude the EU, Turkey, Iran and any international claims to participate in the resolution of the conflict from the negotiations.

    2. Independent intervention of Russia with appeals and proposals to both parties;

    AND). Russia's intervention on the side of Azerbaijan, recognition of its rights to the Nagorno-Karabakh region - precedent justice will inevitably raise the issue of Crimea.
    B). Intervention on the side of Armenia - war with Turkey and its allies. In the Caucasus, these are Azerbaijan, Turkey (a NATO member), guaranteed support for Georgia and possibly Iran under the promise to ease the sanctions.
    The consequence of this is the blocking of the Bosphorus for the Russian Federation, complications in Syria (supply through Gibraltar or from Vladivostok through the Indian Ocean), NATO military bases along the entire coast of the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, a surge in terrorism in the southern federal district.

    3. Actions within the framework of the CSTO and, possibly, even the SCO.

    Not a single member of the CSTO or SCO will lift a finger, limiting their participation to calls for negotiations, about the suffering of the civilian population, a humanitarian catastrophe and similar verbiage.

    The Russian Federation cannot resolve the conflict, this means one thing - a postponed war can flare up at any moment and flare up with renewed vigor, as far as the opposing sides can prepare for it, arm themselves and acquire allies.