European media: Russian patience with Turkey may end in the Caucasus


In the early 90s, Armenia won the war against Azerbaijan, taking control of Nagorno-Karabakh and a number of adjacent territories. That war coincided with the bloody collapse of Yugoslavia, so many have forgotten about it, writes the Croatian edition of Advance.


Peace in the Caucasus ended with the existence of a single, large and strong country. Everything was the same in the Balkans. But the international community was more worried about Yugoslavia than what is happening in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Three decades later, the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan may flare up again. The information received from Yerevan and Baku suggests that the parties are not ready to make concessions and compromises.

The defeat in the 90s became a kind of trauma for Azerbaijan, because it was defeated by a country that was much smaller in demographic, territorial and other parameters. Yerevan's success was also facilitated by the fact that Moscow sided with it. Washington also did not lend a helping hand to Baku, because the US has a very powerful Armenian lobby, just like in Paris. Iran also sided with Armenia and Turkey was the only country that supported Azerbaijan.

The theater of military operations is a mountainous area and it will be very difficult for Azerbaijan to “climb to the top”. The Turks can help him in this matter if Ankara decides to enter the war against Yerevan. In this case, the Armenians will have to fight on two fronts. After that, Moscow is likely to enter the war, because for Russia the Caucasus is a vital region. If this happens, a global conflict will begin, which will destabilize a huge space.

Russia is comfortable with the existing status quo in the Caucasus, so it is trying to extinguish the confrontation before a full-scale war begins. In doing so, she will undoubtedly enlist the support of Iran, which is watching what is happening with undisguised concern. Moscow is now calling on Ankara to support its peace initiative. However, Turkey may decide to escalate.

If Turkey begins to import militants from Syria, Libya and other countries to the Caucasus, then even Russia's enormous patience may come to an end. For several years Moscow has been implementing a strategy to appease the ambitious Ankara, but there is a limit to everything. The Russians can bargain with the Turks about other regions, but not about the Caucasus.
  • Used photos: http://kremlin.ru/
29 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.
I have an account? Sign in
  1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
    Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 1 October 2020 19: 39
    0
    besides militants from Syria and Libya, baboon fighters are bursting in Karabakh. or baboons do not test patience and as "brothers" they must be understood and forgiven?
    1. Atilla10933 Offline Atilla10933
      Atilla10933 (Atilla_az) 2 October 2020 07: 53
      -1
      why no one writes that Syrian and Lebanese Armenians, as well as Kurds and the Kurdistan Workers' Party, are fighting on the side of the Armenians? There is no one who has facts that militants are fighting on the side of Azerbaijan. Just words. There are no facts. And the fact that mercenaries are fighting on the side of the Armenians who openly post photos is not a word about them.
      All the same, two-faced and double standards.
      1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
        Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 2 October 2020 08: 08
        0
        there will be no facts. it is not beneficial to anyone. close their eyes. but in reality there will be mercenaries and instructors and tests of small arms. some howl, others write textbooks on warfare. as in donbass. until the Ukrainians on both sides run out. the Armenians lost anyway. Nobody recognizes Karabakh for them.
        1. Atilla10933 Offline Atilla10933
          Atilla10933 (Atilla_az) 2 October 2020 08: 13
          0
          Sergey, Iran is very conveniently located if you attack it from the Armenian side. Deputy Ayatollah, openly supported the integrity and struggle of Azerbaijan. (by the way, the Armenians fired a missile at the territory of Iran, where a 6-year-old child was wounded) the border was immediately closed. As long as there is Pashinyan, the foreign base in Armenia is relevant. Because they sleep and see themselves with the West. And the United States is not. Armenia is the only one who is with Russia in many unions and now he is being recruited, and given that the US has 2000 embassy staff, these days are not far off. The question is different ... ... ... if this could be ... .... Think what will happen next ... ... ...
          1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
            Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 2 October 2020 08: 17
            0
            then Armenia will be asked to withdraw from the alliance agreements with Russia. Will the USA attack Iran from Armenia? and who will let them go there? Erdogan will allow or Russia transit through itself?
            1. Atilla10933 Offline Atilla10933
              Atilla10933 (Atilla_az) 2 October 2020 08: 22
              0
              Quote: Sergey Tokarev
              then Armenia will be asked to withdraw from the union treaties

              I don’t think so. I very much doubt that Russia is ready to lose its vassal. You see, there would be no Russia there was no Armenia. Russia has put a lot of things on Armenia. Then why in Armenia are the Americans creating a laboratory and a staff of more than 2000 people? Who will ask the Armenians? I watched one very good program, it turns out in history, at the time of Catherine and Nicholas, both of these rulers of the Armenians had already been punished at the most for their betrayal.
              1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
                Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 2 October 2020 08: 23
                0
                http://agitpro.su/armyanskoe-rukovodstvo-rassmatrivaet-samoubijstvennoe-reshenie/?utm_source=politobzor.net
                1. Atilla10933 Offline Atilla10933
                  Atilla10933 (Atilla_az) 2 October 2020 08: 25
                  0
                  unfortunately, in Azerbaijan, the Internet was closed. Not a large number of sites work. Therefore, your link did not open. I'll see later.
                  1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
                    Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 2 October 2020 08: 27
                    +1
                    the last paragraph of the article. Therefore, in the best scenario for Yerevan, the result of "reunification" with Karabakh will be the removal of Russia's informal guarantees and an even more active participation of Turkey in the war in Nagorno-Karabakh. In the worst case, she will be asked to leave the CSTO, which will allow Baku and Ankara to transfer hostilities directly to Armenian territory. For the "final solution of the Armenian question", which was not closed by Turkey almost a hundred years ago.
                2. Atilla10933 Offline Atilla10933
                  Atilla10933 (Atilla_az) 2 October 2020 08: 27
                  0
                  And it opened. It's just late. Thanks. I'll read it now.
  2. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 1 October 2020 20: 04
    -3
    Aliens are militants. Ours are volunteers.
    It seems that they have already started bringing in volunteers. Fortunately, there are those who have already shown themselves.
    We also need to quickly bring in volunteers from Syria, Libya, Nigeria, Somalia, Ugada and Chinese from the Far East.
  3. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 1 October 2020 21: 48
    -1
    Turkey was the only country that supported Azerbaijan.

    The Turks will not be able to get involved in the war without Georgia.
    1. Atilla10933 Offline Atilla10933
      Atilla10933 (Atilla_az) 2 October 2020 07: 54
      0
      Quote: Oo sarcasm
      Turkey was the only country that supported Azerbaijan.

      again a lie. In addition to Turkey, this war was supported by Pakistan, Afghanistan and Qatar.
  4. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 2 October 2020 01: 19
    0
    The point is not even the limit of Russia's patience. The Turks are tired of everyone, and Azerbaijan has got into a batch.
    Dzhangirov, a Ukrainian political scientist (no need to make jokes, there are very sane and qualified experts there) drew attention to an interesting fact. The document adopted by the UN Security Council on the current aggravation of the Karabakh conflict is interesting not because of what is there, but because of what is not there. The documents that the UN Security Council adopted regarding the previous exacerbations necessarily contained a wording on support for the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Now there is no such formulation. And this is a very bad signal for Azerbaijan.
    1. Stanislav Bykov Offline Stanislav Bykov
      Stanislav Bykov (Stanislav) 2 October 2020 03: 01
      +1
      Perhaps the laudatory Armenian lobby has worked, but this is no longer important, Erdogan simply sent all these UNOs and others far away in the forest, I have great doubts that the collective West will at least impose sanctions on him, they will strive to push the Russian Federation against Turkey, and help the latter in every possible way not directly participating in hostilities, they will play a game of weakening and strangling Russia in all possible ways
  5. Stanislav Bykov Offline Stanislav Bykov
    Stanislav Bykov (Stanislav) 2 October 2020 02: 41
    +1
    Quote: Sergey Tokarev
    besides militants from Syria and Libya, baboon fighters are bursting in Karabakh. or baboons do not test patience and as "brothers" they must be understood and forgiven?

    I understood myself what I said? Only complete fool cannot but understand that if Russia does nothing, Turkey will simply squeeze the Russian Federation out of the Transcaucasia, and with shame, there will be no Russian base in Armenia, and Turkish bases will be in Azerbaijan and the Caspian.
    1. Atilla10933 Offline Atilla10933
      Atilla10933 (Atilla_az) 2 October 2020 07: 55
      0
      Quote: Stanislav Bykov
      and there will be Turkish bases in Azerbaijan and the Caspian.

      So that there are military bases in Azerbaijan, the Karabakh war is not needed for this.
    2. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
      Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 2 October 2020 08: 12
      0
      Karabakh is Armenia and the Russian base in Karabakh? you at all fool ?
  6. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
    Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 2 October 2020 06: 01
    +2
    The fire is going according to plan. What is happening is what is objective and should happen. The approximate equality of forces of the parties, the mountainous rugged terrain and the well-fortified defensive positions of Armenia deprive Azerbaijan of the chances of an unconditional victory. If Ankara does not fight on the side of Baku, then Yerevan will suffer a local, dosed defeat: small territories not included in the enclave of Mountainous Karabakh will again retreat to Baku. It seems that the major geopolitical players are leaning towards this option. Yes, of course the lands for which Azerbaijan is fighting under international law belongs to him. So what? Neither Russia nor Iran will allow Turkey to gain strength in its soft underbelly. The position of the United States and France is basically the same. Because Turkey began to strengthen itself in Libya and Syria - the zone of interests of Paris and Washington. Baku was given the opportunity to frolic a little and occupy several villages. Azerbaijan cannot achieve more without Turkey's participation. The opponents are already exhausted. The messages of Baku and Yerevan about the losses of each other sound funny. Azerbaijan has already destroyed 200 of Armenia's 110 tanks, Armenia is shooting down hundreds of helicopters, planes and submarines of Azerbaijan, the number of killed on both sides is in the thousands ...
    1. Atilla10933 Offline Atilla10933
      Atilla10933 (Atilla_az) 2 October 2020 07: 57
      0
      Quote: Rogue1812
      If Ankara does not fight on the side of Baku

      Please tell me why 10 million Azerbaijan additional aid in manpower against 2 million Armenians? I'm talking about millions, not tens.
      1. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
        Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 2 October 2020 08: 59
        +3
        In the local war against Armenia, which is being waged, the advantage of Azerbaijan in manpower is not decisive:
        1. Of these 10 million, about 400 thousand people will be able to actually fight (together with the reserve);
        2. for Armenians - twice less, but in positional hostilities, taking into account the fact that Armenians are fighting in defense, this is of fundamental importance. Remember the superiority in all respects of the Arabs against tiny Israel;
        3. positional war, a lot is decided by the latest technology.
        Azerbaijan managed to create good subdivisions of submarines, which entailed significant losses of the Armenian side in artillery and air defense;
        4. Anti-tank weapons, especially the Kornet, have shown themselves very well in Armenia.
        In my opinion, hostilities should end soon. Compromise: Azerbaijan will return the territories (seven regions) not included in Nagorno-Karabakh. Pashinyan is likely to resign. Azerbaijan cannot de-occupy Nagorno-Karabakh without Turkey. Iran, Russia, France, the United States have taken a consolidated position on this issue. Turkey will not dare to enter the conflict. She tried to come to an agreement with the Russian Federation that the fire would be stopped immediately, subject to the mandatory withdrawal of Armenian troops from Karabakh. RF refused, period. I understand your feelings and pain for my country. I also understand that Karabakh will never be returned peacefully, through negotiations. But the reality is that today Azerbaijan has achieved little success and will return seven regions occupied by Armenia. Karabakh, no. Neither the Russian Federation nor Iran will allow Turkey to gain a foothold on their borders either in the Caspian Sea or in the Caucasus. This is geopolitics. Azerbaijan is powerless here. Nothing personal.
        1. Atilla10933 Offline Atilla10933
          Atilla10933 (Atilla_az) 2 October 2020 09: 12
          0
          Quote: Rogue1812
          Remember the superiority by all indicators of the Arabs against tiny Israel

          I agree with you, but then the Arabs or against the Arabs was not waged war of drones. Further satellite reconnaissance. Azerbaijan has a military satellite. Agree, this significantly reduces the losses of the attacking side. (ALTHOUGH I admit, in theory you are right, but times are not much different anymore)

          Quote: Rogue1812
          positional war, a lot is decided by the latest technology.

          Here I am about the same.

          Quote: Rogue1812
          Turkey will not dare to enter the conflict.

          I agree. And Azerbaijan will not allow it either.

          Quote: Rogue1812
          with the obligatory condition of the withdrawal of Armenian troops from Karabakh. RF refused

          Understand. It was not for this that Russia fought with the Turks and Persians and with difficulty created the Armenian province, for this step directly pushes Armenia into the embrace of the West.
  7. Sergey A_2 Offline Sergey A_2
    Sergey A_2 (Siberian Yuzhanin) 2 October 2020 08: 11
    -1
    Yes, all this is smoke, a couple of dozen Turkish military will slam and all the steam of the Sultan will come out.
  8. Sergey A_2 Offline Sergey A_2
    Sergey A_2 (Siberian Yuzhanin) 2 October 2020 08: 14
    0
    None of the big players in this conflict will catch the pluses, a piece of land of local importance is important only for the self-esteem of the participants themselves and to attract attention. This is purely my opinion.
  9. Kuramori Reika Offline Kuramori Reika
    Kuramori Reika (Kuramori Reika) 2 October 2020 14: 23
    +1
    If the Turks are not fools at all, then they will not cross the state border of Yerevan, but they are free to destroy everything in Nagorno-Karabakh under the mandate of Azerbaijan. Then it will be in line with international law and will not run counter to the CSTO treaty. One way or another, but the Armenians are not our allies, not even friends. They poured slops on us, drove us out of the country, called us occupiers and threw slops at our embassy. This is not to mention that both the Armenian and Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia are constantly attracting infusion for their wild behavior and aggressiveness. These are not the nations that you should fit in with. Azerbaijan does not need this, and Armenia is not worth it.
  10. Stanislav Bykov Offline Stanislav Bykov
    Stanislav Bykov (Stanislav) 2 October 2020 14: 52
    0
    Quote: Sergey Tokarev
    Karabakh is Armenia and the Russian base in Karabakh? you at all fool ?

    Who lives in Karabakh? Aliens? For Armenians Karabakh is like Donbass for us, ARMENIANS live there, so build a logical chain after that and imagine the fate of our base in Armenia if Karabakh falls
  11. Nymp Offline Nymp
    Nymp (Boris) 2 October 2020 16: 04
    +1
    And when will the limit of this "patience" come? We endured Russian blood in Donbass, and we still "tolerate" it, even they themselves staged a postal blockade of Donbass, by the way, by agreement with Kiev! If anyone does not understand what I mean, let him try to send something by mail to the DPR, then he will find out that the Russian mail does not work with "territories not controlled by Kiev." And then suddenly this reinforced concrete patience will burst because of the Armenians ?! Why did it happen? Russia, which no longer wipes itself out even when spit in the face, is suddenly capable of losing patience? Come on, Lavrov still has the patience to express "extreme concern" more than once.
  12. bratchanin3 Offline bratchanin3
    bratchanin3 (Gennady) 3 October 2020 09: 07
    0
    Russia has made itself patient! I endured fate - endure!
  13. volk.bosiy Offline volk.bosiy
    volk.bosiy (Volk Bosiy) 3 October 2020 16: 56
    0
    Europeans are eagerly awaiting when Russia will finally begin to fight with Turkey ... ... you can't wait ...