Bloomberg: NATO intelligence bet on Yerevan's victory in the war with Baku


Armenia and Azerbaijan are on the brink of a war that will shake NATO, the Middle East and energy markets, Bloomberg writes.


The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh may seem to the western man in the street as an insignificant clash somewhere in a remote corner of the planet. But in reality, what is happening there can have colossal consequences, affecting regional stability and security, as well as the ambitions of two leaders problematic for the West: Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

In the aggravated confrontation, Yerevan and Baku are not going to make concessions and compromises, so a war with potentially large consequences is very likely. NATO intelligence had previously assessed the situation and bet on Yerevan's victory over Baku if it comes to that.

Before that, Russia supplied weapons and trained both sides, exerting a calming effect on them. But now Armenia and Azerbaijan have declared martial law and are mobilizing troops. The worst thing is that there is no opportunity for other countries to intervene in what is happening in order to stop the bloodshed at least for a while.

Ankara and Moscow support different sides and have opposite views in Syria and Libya. Turks dislike Armenians and stand behind their Muslim brothers in Azerbaijan. At the same time, Yerevan is a member of the CSTO and hopes for further patronage from Moscow.

Unstable Georgia and aggressive Iran are in the immediate vicinity of the battlefield. At the same time, the pipelines of Azerbaijan, rich in oil and gas, pass only 10 km from the border with Armenia. Transcaucasia was a region with a high level of tension before, but this time everything is much more serious.

The US elections distract Washington from what is happening. The EU is busy with Brexit issues. Therefore, the chances of a peaceful settlement seem bleak. Perhaps the United States, Russia and Turkey, working together, could influence the parties to the conflict and convince them to turn off the catastrophic path. The negotiations could begin with the symbolic return of a part of the lands by the Armenians to the Azerbaijanis and mutual obligations not to use any more weapons. But such a development of events now seems unlikely.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 1 October 2020 14: 11
    +1
    Turks dislike Armenians and stand behind their Muslim brothers in Azerbaijan.

    - And the Armenians, they say, do not like Russians, they banned Russian-language schools and the media in their own Armenia.
    Is that really true? And how then will Armenians learn Russian if they are members of the CSTO? Will they communicate in English during meetings?
  2. Atilla10933 Offline Atilla10933
    Atilla10933 (Atilla_az) 1 October 2020 15: 00
    0
    NATO intelligence had previously assessed the situation and bet on Yerevan's victory over Baku if it comes to that.

    The Armenians in the trenches are crying and these underorganizations are betting on Yerevan. Well, bet. Flag in your hands and with a song.
  3. _AMUHb_ Offline _AMUHb_
    _AMUHb_ (_AMUHb_) 1 October 2020 15: 37
    0
    ... The negotiations could begin with the symbolic return of part of the lands by the Armenians to the Azerbaijanis ...

    laugh, but it's not funny ... if you change a couple of lines and replace with "sell" it would look more reasonable)) atilla's pysy just don't need a righteous turkey to "mold" Turkey ... with Israel ... you like to drag children here
    1. Atilla10933 Offline Atilla10933
      Atilla10933 (Atilla_az) 1 October 2020 16: 33
      -4
      Quote: _AMUHb_
      ... The negotiations could begin with the symbolic return of part of the lands by the Armenians to the Azerbaijanis ...

      We do not need to return anything. Ours and so ours. It's just that their army needs to leave the region. All! Hundreds of thousands of ethnic Armenians live in Azerbaijan. Does anyone touch them? No. But no, give the Armenians land. Georgia has Javakheti. Azerbaijan has Karabakh, Turkey has Kars. You see, at the time of the dinosaurs in this region, their ancestors were here.
      1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
        Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 1 October 2020 18: 40
        0
        Quote: Atilla10933
        Ours and so ours.

        Nagorno-Karabakh is not yours. Catherine gave it to the Armenians for settlement. It was during the Soviet era that Stalin ordered that he gave Karabakh under the administrative control of Baku, and peaceful coexistence allowed Azerbaijanis to become the majority in some regions.
        But it did not work to expel the Armenians, or to cut them out, as in Sumgait. The Armenians drove out their arrogant neighbors. And considering which of the Azerbaijanis are soldiers (known from the Soviet army laughing ), and from the Nakhichevan - the commanders, even with a threefold advantage, nothing shines for Azerbaijan - the Nakhichevan do not care about both the Baku and Karabakhs. The main thing is to sell cartridges and stew to the left.
        1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
          Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 1 October 2020 19: 22
          -1
          But don't you need to give Rostov to the Armenians? Catherine settled them there too ...
          1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
            Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 1 October 2020 21: 44
            +1
            And sho, Armenians are being driven from Rostov-on-Don? Are they kicked out of their houses? Quite normal Cossacks turned out. But in Sochi, only bandits leave the Armenians ...
            1. The comment was deleted.
  4. Dmitry S. Offline Dmitry S.
    Dmitry S. (Dmitry Sanin) 1 October 2020 17: 35
    0
    Here the bets are made, and there people die. The sad thing is that bookmakers accept bets.
  5. shinobi Offline shinobi
    shinobi (Yuri) 1 October 2020 18: 01
    +1
    The Yankees launched the "ring of fire" plan, the result of which will be the physical isolation of Russia from the rest of the world, while the Russian Federation will have to clean up the mess of local conflicts in the ring.
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 1 October 2020 18: 54
      +2
      Quote: shinobi
      The Yankees launched the Ring of Fire plan

      The Yankees themselves are now blazing that all taxes are going to hell.
      Elchibey, as soon as Azerbaijan gained independence, started a war with Armenia. Until he was turned on and the old man Aliev returned, who still remembered the Patriotic War. The conflict froze. Now young people have grown up who know exactly how to fight. But somehow they are not fighting the way they know.
  6. Sergey A_2 Offline Sergey A_2
    Sergey A_2 (Siberian Yuzhanin) 2 October 2020 08: 30
    0
    There will be no large-scale conflict there, purely a local spill. Who and what significant advantages will get from this? Erdogan is purely Russian to do a goat and that's it.
  7. Johann Klassen Offline Johann Klassen
    Johann Klassen (Johann Klassen) 5 October 2020 15: 05
    0
    The author does not burn like a child.

    Strange, about Russia, Turkey, the United States seems to have mentioned a "certain" author.
    But about the "main beneficiary" in many "conflicts in hot spots of the world", as well as in the post-Soviet space, such as Chechnya, Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine, Belarus - Israel, for some reason, are not words.
    There is a lot of "silence" about real problem countries and "inadequately interested" legal entities and individuals.