Russia's entry into the war on the side of Armenia will open the Caucasus for Turks and Americans


The escalation of the armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is growing. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan report on the "countless hordes" of the destroyed enemy and his combat equipment... Baku's offensive successes are largely due to direct military support from Turkey. At any moment, if the war spreads to the territory of Armenia, the question of Russia's fulfillment of its allied obligations within the framework of the CSTO will arise. Thus, Ankara deliberately puts the Kremlin in a very difficult position.


Moscow is trying to be friends with both Baku and Yerevan, and on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh - to stand above the battle. Unfortunately, “friend” Recep is forcing President Putin to make a rather difficult choice between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Kremlin faces a dilemma.

While hostilities are taking place on the territory of the unrecognized republic, the RF Ministry of Defense has the right not to interfere. If they spread to Armenia, then the Collective Security Treaty comes into force. It is clear that Yerevan will not get any special help from Belarus, Kyrgyzstan or Kazakhstan. The basis and the main "glue" of the CSTO (the Eurasian counterpart of NATO) is Russia. If Moscow does not enter the war with Azerbaijan and Turkey, this will mean not only the loss of face, but also the collapse of this rather loose military formation in the post-Soviet space. If it does, the consequences will be even worse.

Baku with good reason will declare that Russia is no longer a neutral party in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and will demand the start of a new negotiation process. It is not necessary to guess for a long time who can become intermediaries. On the side of Azerbaijan there will be Turkey, on the side of Armenia - Russia, "above the battle", of course, the United States and, probably, France and Germany. All the same, all the same.

As a result, the balance of power in the region will radically change. Turkish military bases may appear in Transcaucasia as a guarantor of Azerbaijan's security, and in the future, American ones. Don't forget that this former Soviet republic is reaching the hydrocarbon-rich Caspian. According to some estimates, the total reserves of this "not a sea or a lake" are estimated at 6,5 billion tons of oil and gas in oil equivalent. Who knows if Baku might want to reconsider the agreement on the division of borders and resources of the Caspian Sea after that?

In addition, the militants who, according to the Armenian Defense Ministry, are currently being transferred from Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh, can complicate the military situation in the Transcaucasus. This unrecognized republic is not so far from the border with Iran. Thus, at present another "atomic bomb" is being laid under this already difficult region.

The worst thing is that the Kremlin has practically no options to get out without losses. If you play by the rules of "Sultan" Erdogan, you will have to choose between bad and very bad. The situation could be changed by a symmetrical response on one of the flanks of Turkey, for example, the offensive of the Syrian government army in Idlib or the beginning of the national liberation struggle against the Turkish occupiers in distant Libya.
7 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.
I have an account? Sign in
  1. Cudgel Offline Cudgel
    Cudgel (Dubina) 30 September 2020 16: 20
    -5
    As usual, Putin lost geopolitics. It was bad, it got worse. Ukraine, Syria, Belarus, now Armenia and Azerbaijan.
    For whatever he undertakes, he smears himself everywhere in a known substance. Only with the Constitution can defame, and even then clumsily.
    Will not stay until 2024.
  2. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 30 September 2020 16: 28
    -1
    If you play by the rules of "Sultan" Erdogan, you will have to choose between bad and very bad.

    - Ha, yes, Russia has long been playing "according to the rules of the" Sultan "Erdogan" ... -therefore Moscow now ... - "wherever you throw it ... -the wedge is everywhere" ... - she drove herself there ... -in this situation ...

    In addition, the militants who, according to the Armenian Defense Ministry, are currently being transferred from Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh, can complicate the military situation in Transcaucasia.

    - Personally, I already wrote on another topic, Russia can also try to use the Chechen battalions in Armenia; if they, of course, go there to fight (this is still a question) ... - yes, and will they go at all (and on which side they still want to be) ...
    -And sending units of the regular Russian Army to Armenia ... would be a colossal mistake ...

    The situation could be changed by a symmetrical response on one of the flanks of Turkey, for example, the offensive of the Syrian government army in Idlib or the beginning of the national liberation struggle against the Turkish occupiers in distant Libya.

    -This is already from the realm of absolute fantasy ... -what is the "offensive of the Syrian government army in Idlib" ... -so that this Syrian army soon itself would not have to take its feet from there ...
    - The same is in Libya ... - what kind of "national liberation struggle against the Turkish invaders" ... - There, even France did not dare to bomb "the enemy" ... - She drove her aircraft carrier and a bunch of ships ... no ... - "but things are still there" ...
    - Yes, and "formidable Egypt" ... - puffed out his cheeks, puffed out ... - yes, he was afraid to oppose Turkey ...
    - So it is not worth Russia at all to meddle in this matter ... - only help with weapons and nothing more ...
    - It is high time for Russia to think very hard about its safety ... - solid old equipment in the troops; rearmament has slowed down ... - factories cannot cope with production and deliveries ... - about the Russian Navy ... - in general ... it's better not to say ...
  3. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 30 September 2020 17: 08
    -3
    https://www.mk.ru/politics/2020/09/29/armeniya-voyuet-s-fantomnymi-istrebitelyami-turcii.html
  4. Andrey Naumov Offline Andrey Naumov
    Andrey Naumov (Andrey Naumov) 30 September 2020 17: 24
    0
    Everything is much more complicated. Entry into the conflict on the side of Armenia, Iran, and not Russia, may influence the actions of the United States. But none of the parties will take active action on the eve of the presidential elections. In America, the Armenian diaspora is too large, and these are the votes of voters and, accordingly, an active lobby.
    On the other hand, Erdogan, who irritates both camps of the American establishment, is behind the actions of Azerbaijan.
    Russia will delay the fulfillment of allied obligations within the framework of the CSTO for as long as possible. Arms and intelligence shipments don't count. But with a serious danger to Armenia itself, and not to Karabakh, it will be forced to intervene.
    PS Iran has already begun to transfer troops to the border of Azerbaijan.
  5. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
    Pishenkov (Alexey) 1 October 2020 01: 13
    +3
    Georgia has already allowed the USA and Turkey into the Caucasus, and for a long time. It is disastrous for the Russian Federation to act on any side. Everything is very difficult there with the principles of the CSTO, since Pashinyan is clearly lying in many ways. But if the aggression really and confirmedly moves to the territory of Armenia, then the most reasonable way to fulfill the obligations under the CSTO will be just the introduction of some kind of peacekeepers from the Central Asian members, possibly + Belarusians. This will somewhat pull the Russian Federation out of the conflict. You can excuse yourself by the fact that we already have a base there, if anything, we will help. And at the same time, all this should be carried out after the general meeting of the CSTO at the top, where the decision will be made by everyone, and not by the Russian Federation independently. + malyava in the UN, well, for the sake of order ... We like everything like according to the law ... Moreover, the introduction of troops between the conflicting parties is not acceptance of one of the parties to the conflict.
    But so far, by the way, the war is being waged on the territory of Azerbaijan, which officially includes Karabakh. That is, if the Armenians get into this on their own, then the issue of the CSTO obligations is very doubtful.
    The same, approximately, was in NATO, when the Turks shot down our plane over Syrian territory ... Erdogan was culturally sent to NATO ...
  6. bratchanin3 Offline bratchanin3
    bratchanin3 (Gennady) 1 October 2020 06: 25
    0
    Turks and Americans have been in the Caucasus for a long time! It’s even stupid and unprofessional to talk about it.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 1 October 2020 07: 21
      +1
      Actually, it was about the Caspian in the article. Select expression.
      1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
        Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 1 October 2020 19: 05
        0
        The Caspian is the Caspian, but Azerbaijan is bounded by Iran in the south, Russia in the north, and the only corridor for Turkey's participation in the war is Georgian. Considering the Armenian Order of Glory awarded to Saakashvili after 80808, Armenians are masochists. Now Pashinyan needs the Order of Glory for both Aliyev and Erdogan. Still, friends of Georgia.