The war in Nagorno-Karabakh is beneficial only to the "third force"

On the one hand, the armed confrontation that broke out in the Caucasus was quite expected (the territorial dispute between Baku and Yerevan, after all, has been going on for four decades), on the other hand, it became a pretty surprise for many. It seemed that nothing foreshadowed that the cannons on both sides would speak right now, and even with such ferocity that no one would recall since the bad 1994.

Be that as it may, but we all understand perfectly well that such situations do not arise “suddenly” or “just like that”. Someone's will always stands behind them and they serve someone's interests. Who can benefit from the fire, the flame of which is flaring up today in Nagorno-Karabakh, and how far can it be allowed to spread?

Little victorious war ...

Let's start, naturally, with the countries that are directly involved in the collision. At the moment, when this article is being written, the Armenian media are reporting about the "massive offensive of the Azerbaijani army" in Karabakh, dozens of burned tanks, hundreds of killed and wounded. Roughly the same thing has been happening all the last days, and each side in every possible way extols its own combat successes, colorfully depicting the enemy's losses. With statements about who fired the first shot and, accordingly, is the culprit of the escalation, the picture is the same. Baku blames Yerevan, Yerevan points to Baku. As a matter of fact, in stories, when enmity lasts almost centuries, it cannot be otherwise.

But to whom, and in which of these two capitals, could the "small victorious war" be on hand? The fact of the matter is that those in power both in Azerbaijan and in Armenia have every reason to use the factor of an external enemy to solve internal problems. In the first case, the situation in the country has recently been rapidly deteriorating, since the fall in world oil prices economy suffers to a much greater extent than the Russian one. As well as from the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. All this leads to a drop in the standard of living of the population, an increase in social tension and the emergence of protest moods in society, which are becoming more and more radical. And there are plenty of those willing to finally "move" the Aliyev clan, which is beginning to turn into a kind of hereditary monarchy, in the "upper echelons" of the Azerbaijani elites. So why not let off steam, remembering old grievances, territorial claims and "unrevenged blood"?

In Armenia, the situation is largely similar, but with some significant differences. Let me remind you, the local Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan came to power as a result of an action that painfully resembles the classic "Maidan". And very many are considered the protege of the West, and not without good reason. Unlike similar figures from, say, Kiev or Tbilisi, he cannot decisively break with Moscow, and, above all, precisely for military reasons. Both old and young in Armenia are well aware that without the support of Russia, the country would have long ago become an object of Azerbaijani-Turkish aggression, and the matter would definitely not be limited to Nagorno-Karabakh. Looming in the sky of Yerevan, Russian MiGs are the best reminder of that. On the other hand, Pashinyan is slowly but surely trying to minimize the pro-Russian lobby in the country, at the same time reaching outright repressive actions. An example is the arrests of Robert Kocharian and Gagik Tsarukyan.

Some of the Armenian politicians in general, I am inclined to believe that the martial law declared by Pashinyan is not so much dictated by an urgent need as it is a preventive measure to prevent the opposition from speaking out, which was planning, in particular, to bring the people out into the streets in support of Tsarukyan. This is now out of the question. By the way, we can talk about a more subtle game of the head of the Armenian government, no longer directed against his own political opponents, who are increasingly declaring his complete incompetence in a high post, but against Moscow. As it was already said, the friendly attitude of the absolute majority of Armenians towards our country is conditioned precisely by the confidence that, “if something happens,” it will certainly come to the rescue. But what if it doesn't come ?! Here we, in fact, come to a completely different part of the conversation - about "external players" capable of influencing and influencing the conflict.

Centuries-long dispute over the Caucasus

The danger of the current situation lies precisely in the fact that the expansion of a local conflict to the size of a full-scale war, into which not only the Caucasus region, but many more participants will be drawn into it, is possible only with outside influence. According to the practically unanimous assessment of the majority of military experts, in their current state, neither the Armenian nor the Azerbaijani armies are capable of achieving a decisive and unequivocal victory over each other. Their fight can only result in a strategically senseless bloodshed. Both Baku and Yerevan are well aware of this - despite loud bellicose statements made to the public. Let's return, however, to Russia.

For our country, the current aggravation, and even more so, a full-scale war in the region is not beneficial from any side. Moscow has even and calm relations with both countries, trade and economic partnership, including in militarytechnical area. Yes, Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), however, let me remind you that its provisions categorically do not apply to any events in Nagorno-Karabakh, whose belonging to Azerbaijan our country recognizes in accordance with all decisions of international organizations. It's another matter if the enemy comes directly to the land of Armenia ... However, it is precisely such an extreme situation that Moscow would like to avoid. At present, according to the statement of the Armenian Ambassador to Russia Vardan Toganyan, the country's government is not going to turn to the Kremlin with a request for military intervention in the conflict. But this is still ... Everyone understands perfectly well that the most significant factor influencing the further development of events today is the behavior of Azerbaijan's main ally, Turkey.

There is no doubt that Baku would have behaved much more restrained if it had not been for Ankara looming behind it with its inflammatory statements and body movements in the form of a concentration of its own troops in Azerbaijan. However, just on the eve of Recep Erdogan's advisor Yasin Aktay clearly and unequivocally denied the possibility of direct armed intervention by his country in the current events, as well as the prospect of transferring "tourists" to Nagorno-Karabakh from among the Turkish-controlled militants from Syria or Libya. At the same time, however, he did not fail to emphasize the invariability of intentions regarding "military-technical support" to Baku, as well as to remind that, if necessary, the "road is open" for the Turkish army to this country. Thus, Ankara is making a claim to become the main force that determines the geopolitical agenda in the Caucasus region. Naturally, pushing Russia out of this position. In principle, nothing new - this conflict is as old as the world.

Alas, in Ankara from time to time they forget how the attempts to “raise the stakes” in this confrontation end and go on a “decisive offensive” for it. Undoubtedly, Recep Erdogan, who imagines himself the new sultan, sees in the current bloody events an excellent reason to once again make the Kremlin nervous. But at the same time, it seems, he again loses his sense of reality and does not take into account that opening too many "fronts" against Russia, one can eventually overstrain. Turkey is really unlikely to dare to invade or even intervene in hostilities at the level of a "limited contingent" of its own special forces or, say, the Air Force. Moreover, in Yerevan, the "red line" in the conflict was very lucidly marked: there they warned that if at least one Turkish F-16 appeared in the sky over Karabakh, the most formidable weapon would be used against the Azerbaijani side - Iskander-M missile systems. ". The prospect is more than unpleasant.

The "Karabakh Gambit" of the USA?

In all of today's history, as usual, there is also the notorious "third force" - the one that is just unambiguously beneficial to have shots thundered and blood shed in the Caucasus. Even more "bonuses" will be given to this side, which is so far from the most "peaceful" positions, if not only the Armenian and Azerbaijani military, but also the Russians and the Turks come together in battle. We are talking, of course, about the United States. Yes, the State Department there has already issued a "strong condemnation" of the military actions in Nagorno-Karabakh and an appeal to Yerevan and Baku to immediately stop them, as well as "return to negotiations within the OSCE group" (completely hopeless in the opinion of both sides). Also, Washington made a significant statement regarding "the inadmissibility of interference in the conflict by any external forces." All this is the official rhetoric, not worth a broken cent, in truth. In fact, the United States is precisely interested in the maximum aggravation between these very "external forces", that is, between Russia and Turkey. Both countries are now with the Americans not in the status of friends and partners, therefore, the more blood they put on one another, the more they quarrel, the more mutual damage they cause, the better.

There are here (as, in fact, always when it comes to the United States) also purely mercantile interests. Azerbaijan, with its stubborn desire to expand the export of its energy resources (primarily gas) to Europe, and even intending to do this with Turkish assistance, is one of Washington's unwanted competitors in the market for Washington. So if there are a couple of missile strikes on the local industrial facilities related to the energy sector, they will only rejoice overseas. There is another point. US presidential candidate Joe Biden has already let slip about him. According to his statement made the day before, “the settlement of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh” would be most facilitated not only by “the deployment of the maximum number of American observers in the conflict zone” (we just didn’t have enough police officers there!), But, above all, “a complete cessation of Russia supplies arms to both countries ”! This is what he swung at ... This figure has not yet entered the White House and it is not known whether he will enter, but it has long been noticed that what the "deep state" has in mind, Biden has in his language.

In any case, before evaluating the role of the United States in the new bloody conflict in the Caucasus, it would be nice to find an answer to the question: how did it happen that the United States warned its own citizens in Armenia and Azerbaijan about an impending military clash a few days before it? start ?! Perhaps, it is here that lies the key to understanding the one by whose will blood is shed in Nagorno-Karabakh today.
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 29 September 2020 10: 54
    On July 16, the Armenian parliament in the second and final reading by an overwhelming majority of votes (79 against 17) adopted the draft law “On Audiovisual Media.” Translated from parliamentary into Russian, it refers to actions to cleanse the country's information space from Russian information influence.

    There are no schools with Russian as the language of instruction in Armenia, and you can only study in Armenian. But not everyone.

    Defending Armenians, why does Putin allow to destroy the "Russian world" in Armenia? Russia's problem is that we cannot surrender Armenia, then we will lose the Caucasus. Realizing this, Pashinyan behaves insolently.
    1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
      Bulanov (Vladimir) 29 September 2020 11: 22
      Pashinyan is behaving arrogantly.

      Nothing prevents Russia from behaving similarly, cultivating the Armenian diaspora in Russia. Pashinyan, if something happens, will fly to Washington through the American embassy (dressed in a woman's dress). And the common people to disentangle the Turkish massacre. Russia could strongly recommend opening Russian-language schools and Russian media in Armenia, otherwise it will only defend its military base, and possibly even Yerevan. And yet Russia is not obliged to defend Nagorno-Karabakh. It can put peacekeepers there, or annex this territory to itself, as it was under the agreement with the then Iran.
  2. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 29 September 2020 11: 11
    The war in Nagorno-Karabakh is beneficial only to the "third force"

    -Ha., Yes it (this particular war) is beneficial to absolutely everyone ... -including Erdogan and Moscow ...
    - Erdogan easily slips the whole state of Azerbaijan into a state of war (having enlisted the Azeris with his support) and at the same time "mighty Armenia" (another state) ... will also not go anywhere and will participate ... - There (in Armenia) too their "site", or rather "local heroes" are enough; who will always remain on the sidelines, but will "push into the war" those who are "simpler" and applaud them at the same time ... -It should be added that even without this Azerbaijan is "completely tame" and dependent on the political will of Turkey ... -more and will be in the future even more "agreeable in price" for the gas supplied to Turkey, etc. ... - One way or another; but Erdogan is practically becoming the master of the situation in the Russian Caucasus ... -And Russia ... as always ... -hands are tied ... -to help and how to help ... -No, of course ... -delivery of Russian weapons (moreover, Armenia will have to supply Russian weapons free of charge) ... - this goes without saying ... - but this is not an option for Russia ...
    - Well, understandably ... -Erdogan benefits from this conflict from all sides ... -And why is it beneficial to Russia ... -And it is beneficial because this "moment of truth" that has come can finally set everything up in many ways dots above the "i" ... - Russia is finally getting a moment when Russia can show its political will very harshly ... - both in relation to Armenia and in relation to Turkey (here is how Russia itself will show itself) ...
    -And also Russia will finally have the opportunity to use the so-called Chechen armed forces in this conflict ... -if they ... of course it will be possible to co-organize and send there (which is also ... not a fact) ... but it will become clear and will cease to be unknown ...
    -And then during the war with Georgia "08.08.08". this heroic battalion was so eager to "take part in that war"; that he came to that war when it was already over ... -Here now there is a real chance ... to show heroism ...
    -As for the Americans and the EU; then the Americans ... - of course this war is beneficial ... - then you don't even need words ...
    -And for the EU ... -this conflict is a naive hope that finally, somehow, at least through third hands ... at least someone ...- but still ... -finally " will curb the "unbelted Erdogan ... and remove his influence in the Mediterranean ...-naive dreams ...
  3. Bakht Online Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 29 September 2020 12: 15
    The whole weakness of such analytics lies in the fact that the author considers it an axiom that Baku is governed from Istanbul. This is the main mistake. The second mistake is that Azerbaijan, of course, suffers financial losses due to the crisis and epidemic. The situation is dire, but not disastrous. In any case, not worse than in Russia. The third mistake is that there is a force in Azerbaijan that can move Aliyev. Such a force simply does not exist at the moment.
    The main reason is the occupation of Azerbaijani lands. And you will not find a single person in Azerbaijan who does not consider this war to be a liberation one.
    We are grateful to Turkey for its support, but no one in their right mind is counting on Turkey's war against Armenia. At the moment, I am personally only saddened by the losses in the Azerbaijani army. I hope they will be justified.
    1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
      Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 29 September 2020 14: 23
      Maybe Azerbaijan will have more luck with Karabakh than Serbia with Kosovo.
    2. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
      Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 29 September 2020 20: 45
      Turkey's active pro-Azerbaijani position is making serious adjustments to the local confrontation between Baku and Yerevan. Russia, I think, will not be able to stand aside, since the victory of Azerbaijan will strengthen Turkey's position in the Russian Caucasus. On the other hand, Iran, which supports Armenia, did not say its word. The fact remains that it is impossible to conduct large-scale military operations for a long time, taking into account the economies of opponents. Make noise about each other's cyclopean losses as much as you like. The whole intrigue is just how far Turkey will go and how far it will be allowed to go.
      1. Bakht Online Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 29 September 2020 22: 32
        Russia will only guarantee the security of the territory of Armenia. Considering that Azerbaijan is not going to attack it, there is no risk for Russia either.

        The problem and the intrigue lie elsewhere. I asked a question yesterday. If Russia does not fit exactly for Nagorno-Karabakh, what will be its chances of keeping Armenia in its allies? Will Russophobes in Armenia get a trump card for going to the West? Maybe this is the whole intrigue?

        And I would not drag Turkey here. Turkey will not fight instead of Azerbaijan. Just like Russia will not fight instead of Armenia.
        This is a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. But only
        1. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
          Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 30 September 2020 00: 17
          Do you seriously think that the harsh statements of Turkish President Erdogan to Armenia, about his readiness to go from Baku to the bitter end and provide any assistance are just idle talk? And the words of the President of Turkey about the ongoing conflict quoted by all the world media are just idle chatter, at the level of the site's blogger? Which one shouldn't you pay attention to? But. The loss of Karabakh catalyzes a powerful internal political crisis in Armenia. In which, after the Maidan accession of Pashinyan, it is already restless. Already now, the President of Armenia claims that the matter concerns the fate of the Armenian people and the Armenian state. Iran did not say its word. And Russia. So far, only Turkey has emerged and very sharply. For the first time in the years of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Forgive me generously, but your personal guarantees that Azerbaijan is not going to fight with Armenia, I'm afraid it won't be enough for Yerevan. However, I repeat: neither Baku nor Yerevan can defeat each other alone. And it is difficult to call what is happening as a large-scale war.
          1. Bakht Online Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 30 September 2020 01: 07
            Azerbaijan will cope with Armenia alone. This is not a big problem. This requires sacrifices that are absolutely unnecessary for Azerbaijan.
            You are just sure that Turkey has influence on Azerbaijan. This is far from the case. Even more. It's not like that at all. In general, I can hardly imagine that Aliyev is listening to Erdogan's orders. And in general, there is a huge logical inconsistency in these constructions about the dominant influence of Turkey. You are absolutely not critical of the situation.
            Tell me, what levers does Erdogan have to direct Baku? Will it stop buying gas and start buying from Russia? Will not sell weapons and licenses for hard currency? Maybe it will stop accepting tourists? You are in captivity of the Armenian myth about the puppet of Baku. Azerbaijan will return its lands in any case. Karabakh was offered the status of high autonomy. They disagreed. Now there will be no status. Even if this war dies down in a couple of days, it will flare up again in a couple of months. Armenia will overstrain.
            Accept it as a fact that is known to any child in Azerbaijan. Karabakh is Azerbaijani land and it will return to Azerbaijan. Or as part of autonomy with the Armenians, or simply as regions of Azerbaijan without Armenians. This is their choice.
            Both Iran and Russia were quite unambiguous. You just did not see these statements. Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan. Both Tehran and Moscow said this.
            Merkel called I. Aliyev and received the answer "the battles are taking place on the Azerbaijani soil" The UN Security Council will make the same decision. The CSTO replied that battles are taking place on the territory of Azerbaijan. What else and from whom do you expect an answer?
            1. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
              Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 30 September 2020 12: 10
              I am not connected either ethnically or from any other side either with Armenia or with Azerbaijan. I did not pose the questions to which you gave me a detailed answer. I can only repeat that given the potential of Azerbaijan and Armenia, none of the opponents is able to win on their own. A third force is needed. For Azerbaijan, this is Turkey.
              1. Bakht Online Bakht
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 30 September 2020 12: 40
                Turkey will not fight
  4. KolaniMir Offline KolaniMir
    KolaniMir 30 September 2020 10: 49
    I wanted to download the author's book. I decided first to google who he is, can I believe him so to speak. Came across this site. After reading a couple of articles, I realized that I will no longer read. It is convenient to see Russia's enemies everywhere, of course. But my worldview is at odds with the author. We see the root of all evil in different places.
    I can only wish you more objectivity than you have now.
  5. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 4 October 2020 00: 15
    The Russian Federation was unable to resolve a single so-called. "postponed" conflict in the post-Soviet space, including Nagorno-Karabakh.
    1. Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia are included in the EU's Eastern Partnership program, which has been implemented today with a few exceptions - Belarus.
    2. The importance for the EU of this region in strategically important pipelines from Central Asian states, as well as one of the transport corridors of the new Silk Road bypassing the territory of the Russian Federation.
    3. The geographical location of the region allows military pressure to be exerted on the Russian Federation, Iran, the states of Central Asia and more remote regions, including the PRC.
    There is something to fight for, especially with someone else's hands. The restoration of military potential by Azerbaijan and Armenia after the end of hostilities - the purchase of weapons from NATO or the Russian Federation - will be indicative. Azerbaijan is understandable. It can be assumed that Armenia will also have to turn to NATO, since the only path available to the Russian Federation is through Iran, which has its own geopolitical interest and, for the sake of lifting the sanctions, will meet the US-EU-NATO “recommendations”.