The rapid collapse of the ruble has a logical explanation


The ruble plummeted against the euro-dollar currency pair. Today, for the "European" they give 91 "wooden", and for the "American" - 78. But by the end of the year, according to the most pessimistic forecasts, this ratio could be 100 and 80 rubles, respectively. What are the reasons for such a serious depreciation?


First of all, it should be noted that the currencies of all developing countries are falling in price against the dollar and the euro, but against this background, the ruble still looks like an obvious outsider. A whole complex of negative factors plays against the "Russian":

At first, began to fall in price oil, one of the main "braces" of the modern Russian Federation. Brent brand lost in price from 44 to 42 dollars per barrel. Quotes of "black gold" in just a week fell by 3%.

Secondly, as predicted, in the autumn period, the coronavirus began to actively manifest itself again. An increase in the incidence of COVID-19 has been noted in a number of European countries, restrictive measures are again being introduced. Moscow has already taken the first steps to return the quarantine. Experts note that these measures sharply reduce the interest of professional investors in operations with the Russian government debt. The share of non-residents in OFZs dropped below 30%, demand for bonds fell, which immediately negatively affected the exchange rate of our national currency.

Thirdly, the greatest pressure on the ruble is exerted by the extremely unpleasant and frankly politicized story of the poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Nord Stream 2 was already in limbo, but now the chances of its successful implementation are close to zero. The lack of international insurance for domestic pipe-laying vessels does not allow Gazprom to complete the gas pipeline on its own. The United States is threatening to introduce new sanctions against Russia and Germany itself. If Chancellor Merkel stops supporting the project for political reasons, the pipeline will remain dead weight at the bottom of the Baltic for an indefinitely long time.

Taken together, all these factors lead to a rapid drop in the exchange rate of the Russian ruble, even against the background of the currencies of other developing countries, where there are no such sanctions risks. It could be brought down even more by the US Treasury's ban on settlements in dollars for Russia.

However, a number of analysts reassure that the introduction of such tough restrictive measures is unlikely. They indicate that the domestic economy has a low level of public debt and has a current account surplus. If the Central Bank of the Russian Federation considers that the national currency is too weak, it can come into play and adopt a stimulus package to support it. In this case, the ruble may again become more attractive to investors due to the high carry trade. In addition, the start of mass production of the coronavirus vaccine can help raise the head of the "Russian", which professional market players will consider very positive news.

Nevertheless, in the coming months, the ruble will definitely not please.
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  1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 28 September 2020 15: 03
    +1
    The whole focus of the collapse of the ruble of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, only to maintain the benefits of monopolists, exporters of hydrocarbons and other riches abroad, and all due to robbery of the population, because all imports to the population rise in price symbolically, from southern fruits to high-tech products, because only small part of the required goods ... Conclusion: the Central Bank of the Russian Federation does not fulfill its obligations under the Constitution and works to the detriment of the main sovereign of the state - the citizens of the Russian Federation ...
    1. oracul Offline oracul
      oracul (leonid) 29 September 2020 07: 31
      0
      To be honest, it's ridiculous to read all such analyzes. Oil was at a lower price, there was no such strong agriculture, a pandemic is the lot of the whole world, but it is strange that, for example, the Ukrainian hryvnia is still more expensive than the ruble despite the falling economy, and the euro, bearing huge costs for maintenance of the Baltic limitrophes, Romania, Bulgaria, etc., the severe consequences of the pandemic in Italy, Spain, France are growing. The dollar stands in the difficult situation in which America is. There is simply not enough courage to admit that Russia is the target of an attack from the West, that speculative investments that come when foreigners buy shares are not investments in essence (as Lee Iacocca warned about), but a tool for shaking stability in any country.
  2. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 28 September 2020 15: 58
    +5
    Firstly, oil prices began to fall, one of the main "braces" of the modern Russian Federation. Brand First, oil began to fall in price, one of the main "braces" of the modern Russian Federation. Brent brand lost in price from 44 to 42 dollars per barrel. Quotations of "black gold" in just a week fell by 3%.

    Let's take a look at two graphs. The first is the price of Brent, the second is the ruble exchange rate.

    https://www.profinance.ru/chart/brent/

    https://www.profinance.ru/chart/usdrub/

    Who can find anything in common in them? What is the connection with the ruble?

    The share of non-residents in OFZs dropped below 30%, demand for bonds fell, which immediately negatively affected the rate of our national currency.

    Oh how belay And nothing that a year ago the share of non-residents was practically at the same level? In comparison with September last year, we have a decrease of - 0,3%. In 2019 - 29,7%, in 2020 - 29,4% Record 34,9% in March 2020 Does anyone remember how in March the ruble exchange rate was uncontrollably torn up? winked
    Follow the link data for 8 years (do not be alarmed, the xl file is downloaded automaticallysmile)

    http://cbr.ru/vfs/statistics/credit_statistics/debt/table_ofz.xlsx

    Thirdly, the greatest pressure on the ruble is exerted by the extremely unpleasant and openly politicized story of the poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

    Why the greatest? Who measured it and how? What units? In Lechin shorts?

    Nord Stream 2 was already in limbo, but now the chances of its successful implementation are close to zero. The lack of international insurance for domestic pipe-laying vessels does not allow Gazprom to complete the gas pipeline on its own.

    What's again? belay From article to article, there is an unsubstantiated thesis that ships should be insured precisely in certain insurance companies. Why? Because the author said so? winked

    If the Central Bank of the Russian Federation considers that the national currency is too weak, it can step into the game and adopt a stimulus package to support it. In this case, the ruble may again become more attractive to investors due to the high carry trade.

    How interesting is this “stimulus package” and what kind of investors can it attract?

    There is no correct translation of the term carry trade into Russian, but at the semantic level we can say that this is earnings due to the difference in interest rates. You can also hear the term interest rate arbitrage.
    In the simplest version, carry trade may look like this: an investor takes a loan at 9% and invests this money at 12%. The difference of 3% from the capital involved will be the investor's profit.
    This is how, without investing a penny out of his pocket, an investor can make a profit, in fact, "out of thin air." But it's not that simple. Any investment carries risks. In the above example, the investor fully assumes the risk of investing in an asset with a yield of 12%. In case of its implementation, it will remain owed the bank the borrowed amount, and even with interest.

    https://bcs-express.ru/novosti-i-analitika/chto-takoe-carry-trade

    The author hopes that Nabiullina will raise interest rates, which will allow speculators (who for some reason are considered investors belay )? Or maybe it's just copied from someone and pasted into your own article without any thought? smile Are you "Kirkorov" in journalism? sad
    1. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
      Alexzn (Alexander) 28 September 2020 18: 58
      0
      All factors certainly affect the ruble exchange rate, but ... then you're right. I think the main thing is the reluctance of the Central Bank to maintain the course. Whether this position is correct will be clear in a few months, not earlier. While all the changes are of a technical nature, nothing tragic has yet happened to the ruble.
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 28 September 2020 20: 14
        +2
        You managed to summarize everything good That's about what I'm talking about. By the way, not only our Central Bank strives to understate the rate. Perhaps the ruble will continue to fall, but it is unlikely that it would fall sharply over the "hundred square meters".
    2. Igor Pavlovich Offline Igor Pavlovich
      Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 28 September 2020 19: 16
      -2
      You do not need to vegetate in freelance commentators on "Reporter", but to Margot on the staff on RT, or, even better, directly to her husband in the sawmill - you will look harmonious ...
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 28 September 2020 16: 37
    +4
    But they actively started ... singing an old song: the dollar is about to collapse, America is about to collapse.
    So they will rob the population
  4. Cudgel Offline Cudgel
    Cudgel (Dubina) 28 September 2020 19: 59
    -1
    First, oil prices began to fall, one of the main "braces" of the modern Russian Federation. Brent brand lost in price from 44 to 42 dollars per barrel. Quotes of "black gold" in just a week fell by 3%.

    Controversial, very controversial. Look, the exchange rate from January 2020 to today and the oil price for this period. There is no correlation between them. Oil cost less than it is now and the rate was less.
    The other two reasons, the virus and Navalny, are also pretty weak. The main reason is this absolutely worthless president has been in power for 20 years. You can rummage through the sanctions, Navalny and Skripaly, but the reason is simpler - a flawed president, everything else, sanctions, mediocre funds from export in fat years, outrageous corruption and billionaire friends are a consequence.
    Take any area from aircraft, ship and tank construction, to medicine, education and the exchange rate, everything is in crisis and this crisis is only intensifying. And it will only get worse.
    Gentlemen - comrades, name what is not bursting at all the seams, where is there anything positive?
    The nuclear industry should not be offered, it is expensive. All our nuclear power plants abroad are being built on our own money with ridiculous interest rates, and the return of these loans is questionable. In all NPP projects, we bring back radioactive waste, otherwise our NPPs are not bought. This is how, apart from the Great Energy Power, we are slowly becoming the Great Land of atomic waste.
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 28 September 2020 21: 06
      +3
      Gentlemen - comrades, name what is not bursting at all the seams, where is there anything positive?
      The nuclear industry should not be offered, it is expensive. All our nuclear power plants abroad are being built on our own money with ridiculous interest rates, and the return of these loans is questionable. In all NPP projects, we bring back radioactive waste, otherwise our NPPs are not bought. This is how, apart from the Great Energy Power, we are slowly becoming the Great Land of atomic waste.

      You are in vain about the nuclear power plant. Rosatom holds 2/3 of the world market, which means that for the next 40 years it will serve all this economy. Fuel, personnel training. He does not deliver waste, it is now raw materials. After processing, fuel is obtained from it. By the way, it is supplied to the USA. In general, Rosatom is turning into a "megacorporation". Uranium One is uranium mining and processing all over the world. He is engaged in the Northern Sea Route and much more.



      What else?
      The refinery has been pretty decently modernized. The average refining depth is 84,5%, in Europe 85%, in the USA (leaders) 96%. Petrochemicals are also working fine. Gas processing is developing, helium production is on the way, and so on. An entire cluster is being built in the Far East.
      Transport. Marine - shipbuilding capacity, if I do not confuse anything, has already overtaken the entire USSR. The situation is similar with ports.
      Railway - the entire line of diesel locomotives, electric locomotives, gas carriers (in my opinion, except for high-speed ones) is produced, unmanned vehicles are already working. It's the same with the release of cars. Many things were never produced in Russia before. We took it from the Baltic states, the German Democratic Republic and so on.
      The aircraft industry is being restored, almost the entire line will be produced.
      Cars aren't that bad.
      Agriculture, and much more, not to list everything. Flip through at your leisure if interested. hi

      https://www.youtube.com/c/%D0%92%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%
      BC%D1%8F%D0%B2%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%91
      %D0%B4%D0%9E%D0%B1%D0%B7%D0%BE%D1%80/featured
  5. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 29 September 2020 09: 56
    +1
    We always have a logical explanation about the ruble.