Rebellious Minsk: why the forceful interception of power in Belarus did not take place

On Wednesday, September 23, a "secret", as our enemies say, inauguration of the newly elected President of the Republic of Belarus took place in Minsk. And although the dad said that, firstly, according to the laws of Belarus, he was not obliged to warn anyone about this, this is a purely internal affair of each country, and secondly, secretly keep the ceremony, to which 2 thousand people are invited , it is impossible, the feeling that this ceremony was classified remains. What can I say if even the Russian Ambassador was not invited to it, and Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov learned about her from the press.

But the father was forced to act in this way by the well-known circumstances, which you all know about. For, according to the law, he was supposed to take office before October 10, and the opposition, knowing this, was also preparing for this date. Lukashenka was also preparing for it, playing ahead of the curve, playing a classic operation under the "false flag", launching information that on the 23rd only a rehearsal of the inauguration was scheduled, which will take place either on September 27th or 28th. When everything happened on the 23rd, all the spiteful critics could only tell with ill-concealed disappointment that the inauguration of the “self-proclaimed” president, who is recognized only by authoritarian regimes, does not interest anyone at all and does not change anything. All normal democratic countries did not recognize him, and they do not recognize him.



It only remains to clarify who they consider to be authoritarian regimes and who are democratic. China, Russia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Vietnam, Venezuela, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Syria, Cuba, Nicaragua, which recognized the election results, are dictatorial regimes. And among the "lights of democracy" in our country, in addition to the well-known USA, Canada, Great Britain and Germany that joined them, also include such "titans" as Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Ireland, Denmark, the Netherlands and Ukraine (where without her ?!). And that's it! Somehow, there are not enough people in the regiment of "lights of democracy", don't you think? I thought there would be more.

In his inaugural speech, describing the current situation, dad emphasized:


And the fact that this happened, Lukashenka owes to two circumstances - to his security officials and the position of Russia on this issue. Moreover, I would put the second circumstance in the first place, since it directly and indirectly influenced the behavior of the power ministers. But more on that below.

The role of the security forces in recent events, given that their representatives are present in the hall, the dad especially noted. Addressing them, he said:


And here the dad was not at all cunning. It was the power resource that broke the back of the emerging Maidan.

An attempted coup is not a classic war with a series of battles, but an uprising. It is impossible to retreat here, since the current government is obviously stronger at a long distance. The main advantage of the opposition is the suddenness of attacks and the avalanche-like support of the masses. But the first blow did not pass, because the dad was ready for it and took into account the experience of Ukraine, and the calculation of internal treason did not come true, after which the uprising inevitably turned into a rebellion, the fate of which was predetermined, and sooner or later the government would suppress it. Now the protests have passed into the stage of senseless walks, a la French vests, the organizers have not yet lost hope for some provocation and a new upsurge. But this will never happen.

Because Lukashenka is not only not Yanukovych, but also not Morales. If the story of Yanukovych is on everyone's lips, then not everyone knows how Bolivian President Evo Morales, who has held this post since 2006, ended a year ago. Google at your leisure, the story is instructive, I will not retell you, I will only say that it was demolished by its own military during the unrest associated with accusations of rigging the results of the 2019 elections. Does this remind you of anything? And in Belarus there was such a moment when the chair swayed under Lukashenka. But the “elder brother” hedged himself by substituting his own power resource under the swinging leg. And this moment was decisive. The swinging leg understood everything. Talleyrand's principle “To betray in time is not to betray, but to foresee” is canceled. When did it happen? Namely, at the very moment when you saw the dad with a gun. The security forces again believed in their commander and swore allegiance.

It's just that many outside observers are distracted by all sorts of round dances under conventional Christmas trees, and do not see where the real policy... There was also a moment in Ukraine in 2014 when power was lying underfoot, then the Americans took it up, classically taking control. Or Vladimir Putin could have taken advantage of the permission of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation to use the RF Armed Forces in restoring the constitutional order in Ukraine at the request of the then not fugitive guarantor of the Ukrainian Constitution. When was this moment? Namely, when Victoria Nuland uttered her famous: "F * ck the EU", after which the fate of Ukraine was decided. And dad also had his own Stalingrad. And here Putin has not repeated his past mistakes.

After all, what Lukashenka feared most of all was not crowds of hundreds of thousands of protesters in the streets of Minsk and not EU sanctions, and even less the Polish-Lithuanian limitrophes clanging their weapons in the west. Most of all, dad was afraid of internal treason. And even more precisely, the treason of the security officials, who at some point could refuse to carry out his "criminal" orders. The Kremlin was afraid of this too. To avoid this, Putin created a reserve of the National Guard on the borders with the republic in order to quickly enter it at a critical moment and replace the parts of the Belarusian militia and riot police that had gone out of control. Another goal of creating this reserve was the task of stopping the scaling of opposition rallies in the event that the Belarusian security forces would not have had enough of their own resources for new centers of protest. It was on the latter that NEXTA threw all her strength, but the people did not support. The Maidan began to run out of steam and went along a falling exponential rate. This is how revolutions are not made and regimes are not overthrown.

For outside observers, Putin's decision to withdraw the military reserve from the Belarusian border and send him to his places of permanent deployment was a direct confirmation that the turning point has come. Only one thing follows from this - the Lukashenka regime has survived. And the inauguration that took place only strengthened this. You can relax. Thank you all maydanutym, everyone is free. Until March 17, 2024. See you in Moscow. I promise you nothing good.