Rebellious Minsk: why the forceful interception of power in Belarus did not take place

On Wednesday, September 23, a "secret", as our enemies say, inauguration of the newly elected President of the Republic of Belarus took place in Minsk. And although the dad said that, firstly, according to the laws of Belarus, he was not obliged to warn anyone about this, this is a purely internal affair of each country, and secondly, secretly keep the ceremony, to which 2 thousand people are invited , it is impossible, the feeling that this ceremony was classified remains. What can I say if even the Russian Ambassador was not invited to it, and Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov learned about her from the press.

But the father was forced to act in this way by the well-known circumstances, which you all know about. For, according to the law, he was supposed to take office before October 10, and the opposition, knowing this, was also preparing for this date. Lukashenka was also preparing for it, playing ahead of the curve, playing a classic operation under the "false flag", launching information that on the 23rd only a rehearsal of the inauguration was scheduled, which will take place either on September 27th or 28th. When everything happened on the 23rd, all the spiteful critics could only tell with ill-concealed disappointment that the inauguration of the “self-proclaimed” president, who is recognized only by authoritarian regimes, does not interest anyone at all and does not change anything. All normal democratic countries did not recognize him, and they do not recognize him.

It only remains to clarify who they consider to be authoritarian regimes and who are democratic. China, Russia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Vietnam, Venezuela, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Syria, Cuba, Nicaragua, which recognized the election results, are dictatorial regimes. And among the "lights of democracy" in our country, in addition to the well-known USA, Canada, Great Britain and Germany that joined them, also include such "titans" as Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Ireland, Denmark, the Netherlands and Ukraine (where without her ?!). And that's it! Somehow, there are not enough people in the regiment of "lights of democracy", don't you think? I thought there would be more.

In his inaugural speech, describing the current situation, dad emphasized:

An unprecedented challenge was thrown down to our statehood - the challenge of repeatedly worked out trouble-free of technologies destruction of independent states. But we were among the very few - even, perhaps, the only ones - where the "color revolution" did not take place.

And the fact that this happened, Lukashenka owes to two circumstances - to his security officials and the position of Russia on this issue. Moreover, I would put the second circumstance in the first place, since it directly and indirectly influenced the behavior of the power ministers. But more on that below.

The role of the security forces in recent events, given that their representatives are present in the hall, the dad especially noted. Addressing them, he said:

You are the representatives of those guys who stopped this rubbish on our clean, cozy streets of Minsk a month ago. I bow to you and express my sincere gratitude to you. The state will never forget this.

And here the dad was not at all cunning. It was the power resource that broke the back of the emerging Maidan.

An attempted coup is not a classic war with a series of battles, but an uprising. It is impossible to retreat here, since the current government is obviously stronger at a long distance. The main advantage of the opposition is the suddenness of attacks and the avalanche-like support of the masses. But the first blow did not pass, because the dad was ready for it and took into account the experience of Ukraine, and the calculation of internal treason did not come true, after which the uprising inevitably turned into a rebellion, the fate of which was predetermined, and sooner or later the government would suppress it. Now the protests have passed into the stage of senseless walks, a la French vests, the organizers have not yet lost hope for some provocation and a new upsurge. But this will never happen.

Because Lukashenka is not only not Yanukovych, but also not Morales. If the story of Yanukovych is on everyone's lips, then not everyone knows how Bolivian President Evo Morales, who has held this post since 2006, ended a year ago. Google at your leisure, the story is instructive, I will not retell you, I will only say that it was demolished by its own military during the unrest associated with accusations of rigging the results of the 2019 elections. Does this remind you of anything? And in Belarus there was such a moment when the chair swayed under Lukashenka. But the “elder brother” hedged himself by substituting his own power resource under the swinging leg. And this moment was decisive. The swinging leg understood everything. Talleyrand's principle “To betray in time is not to betray, but to foresee” is canceled. When did it happen? Namely, at the very moment when you saw the dad with a gun. The security forces again believed in their commander and swore allegiance.

It's just that many outside observers are distracted by all sorts of round dances under conventional Christmas trees, and do not see where the real policy... There was also a moment in Ukraine in 2014 when power was lying underfoot, then the Americans took it up, classically taking control. Or Vladimir Putin could have taken advantage of the permission of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation to use the RF Armed Forces in restoring the constitutional order in Ukraine at the request of the then not fugitive guarantor of the Ukrainian Constitution. When was this moment? Namely, when Victoria Nuland uttered her famous: "F * ck the EU", after which the fate of Ukraine was decided. And dad also had his own Stalingrad. And here Putin has not repeated his past mistakes.

After all, what Lukashenka feared most of all was not crowds of hundreds of thousands of protesters in the streets of Minsk and not EU sanctions, and even less the Polish-Lithuanian limitrophes clanging their weapons in the west. Most of all, dad was afraid of internal treason. And even more precisely, the treason of the security officials, who at some point could refuse to carry out his "criminal" orders. The Kremlin was afraid of this too. To avoid this, Putin created a reserve of the National Guard on the borders with the republic in order to quickly enter it at a critical moment and replace the parts of the Belarusian militia and riot police that had gone out of control. Another goal of creating this reserve was the task of stopping the scaling of opposition rallies in the event that the Belarusian security forces would not have had enough of their own resources for new centers of protest. It was on the latter that NEXTA threw all her strength, but the people did not support. The Maidan began to run out of steam and went along a falling exponential rate. This is how revolutions are not made and regimes are not overthrown.

For outside observers, Putin's decision to withdraw the military reserve from the Belarusian border and send him to his places of permanent deployment was a direct confirmation that the turning point has come. Only one thing follows from this - the Lukashenka regime has survived. And the inauguration that took place only strengthened this. You can relax. Thank you all maydanutym, everyone is free. Until March 17, 2024. See you in Moscow. I promise you nothing good.
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  1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
    Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 29 September 2020 07: 53
    today it is already obvious that the coup d'etat in Belarus has failed and will not take off. And now several processes will be actively going on: they will cut costs, withdrawing from financing projects like Nekhta (last year, another Russophobic project, Charter-97, was closed in a similar way), and they will also appoint scapegoats for a failed project.

    Those who are smarter from the “Belarusian” opposition are already diligently dissociating themselves from failure. The Coordination Council collapsed, its members scatter, Aleksievich flew to Germany, and so on. Only the "President of the Light" remained, playing the role of the zits-chairman of the Pound (she simply has nowhere to go from the Lithuanian-Polish submarine).

    The gold reserve ran out for the coup, and the lads begin to scatter

    A. Rogers
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 29 September 2020 09: 02
    Old Man outplayed everyone.
    Now everyone will hang dogs on the losers, and diligently pretend that they did not call him the Collective Farmer, who won back and did not write; "The Kremlin will replace him", Belarus will pay for 33 heroes, etc.
  3. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 29 September 2020 09: 25
    to the "lights of democracy"

    I think when such coups take place, the embassies of these democracies should be closed, and the ambassadors should be expelled. Lukashenka does not do this. Therefore, it is too early to relax and nothing is over yet.
  4. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 29 September 2020 09: 53
    The author caught one moment. It was precisely on treason in the highest circles of state power that Lukashenka's opponents were counting. But something is missing here. Having state-owned enterprises, they could not establish an ideology. As you can see the words of Zhirinovsky about "the last Bolshevik Lukashenko." We will proceed from this. Someone likes Belarus, and someone, it is possible, will continue to put sticks in the wheels.
    1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 29 September 2020 14: 48
      Evo Morales (the president of Bolivia - the first Indian as the president of this country) ruled continuously since 2006, 15 years, he was betrayed by the Chief of his own General Staff, who ousted him under pressure from the crowd, who accused him of rigging in the 2019 elections. Yanukovych was also betrayed by the security forces in 2014. Many do not know about this, accusing him of cowardice. He, of course, is a coward and a vegetable, I do not argue, but his order to strengthen police cordons with units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and armored vehicles on the outskirts of the city, ignored the beginning. General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Vitaly Zakharchenko, the former Interior Minister in the Azarov government, who remained the Interior Minister until the last days of this government, spoke about this yesterday on the air on That is why Janek asked for help from the Russian Federation, but no help came ... You know how it all ended. In Belarus, Putin has not stepped on his old rake.
      1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
        Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 29 September 2020 22: 52
        Quote: Volkonsky
        Yanukovych was also betrayed by the security forces in 2014.

        Yanukovych was playing at independence and dreamed of being a Central European. Therefore, he allowed foreign money to bring democracy, including to power structures. The issue of the eternal lease of Crimea by the Americans (which, according to Yanukovych, guaranteed the independence of Ukraine) was resolved back in October 2013, when a tender was announced on the Pentagon's website for the construction of an Air Force headquarters in Simferopol, and a Navy headquarters in Sevastopol. No Maidan, the truncated calm, and the military infrastructure of the US Army is already planned in Crimea.
        And sho, do you think the vice president and secretary of state of the United States are so crazy that they flooded into the rebellious square without protection? When Biden and Nuland passed out cookies, the area was 100% controlled by American troops. And the shooting of Maidan is an American operation, because there were no other armed persons there. All were ousted long ago.
        So Yanukovych is also a victim of "multipolarity".
        Lukashenko? He was under-suppressed for one reason. They hurried with the "uprising" before the transfer of the "Wagnerites" to Ukraine. Three days were not enough for the hurry-ups, when the square multi-vector nature of the blunt Lukashenka would have worked - and Bat'kin's corpse would have been buried long ago in an unknown place.
  5. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 29 September 2020 14: 41
    Rebellious Minsk: why the forceful interception of power in Belarus did not take place

    - Personally, I am almost sure that Lo (Lukashenko) organized all this props himself ... - all this impromptu supposedly "forceful interception of power in Belarus" ... - A couple of protests that were organized and directed ... - already released ; Law's "unfaithful" law enforcers have been eliminated and neutralized (the purge has been carried out) ... - And now Law can already play high again ... - Russia fell for all these tricks of Law and slept through its moment when Belarus was ready to open its borders to Russia ... -Such "moment" will not happen again ... -Now Law has gained strength and "caught up" with Moscow ...
    -And now Moscow will have to adjust to Law ... and keep an eye out ...
    -And the reason to keep an eye out ... is quite obvious ... -Because there is a possible betrayal of Law ahead ... -As soon as a new president appears in the USA; then Law will also have the opportunity to seek "patronage" in the United States ... -so there is quite a possible betrayal of Law ahead ... and the transition to the side of the Americans ... - And the Belarusian youth is already ready for this ... - Lo, it's not time lost and became convinced of this (the processions continue) - And now Lo has a real opportunity to rely on the Belarusian youth and middle age (all those who now wander the streets) ... -and this is the majority ... -And the Belarusian security forces they will not be able to do anything (and Lo changed many and recruited loyalists for himself) ... Those "removed security officials" ... were also far from being patriots of Belarus; but they tried to play their own game, bypassing Law ... that's why they paid ... -But now Law has personally loyal security forces ...
    - So ... everything is still ahead ... - Yes, Moscow "missed" a lot with this Lo ...
    1. isofat Offline isofat
      isofat (isofat) 29 September 2020 14: 44
      - Personally, I'm pretty sure Guo (GoreNina) is wrong!

      PS Not sure? Don't overtake! yes
    2. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 29 September 2020 15: 01
      Can you name the security officials who were removed by Law? otherwise, I searched and did not find! shuffled everyone, but did not remove anyone from the levers of power
      1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
        gorenina91 (Irina) 29 September 2020 16: 20
        geopolitics is not your strong point
        by the way

        - By the way ... - who asks for advice ??? - Personally, I asked someone for advice ???
        -Why did someone suddenly decide to advise me ???
        -Collect stickers from beer bottles ... -maybe this is your "strong place" ... -I won't say it ... -And don't go there ... -where no one asks you ...
        - Isn't it clear ???
        1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
          Volkonsky (Vladimir) 29 September 2020 18: 37
          madam, did you confuse anything? I am the author of this article, you write under it a comment that, in terms of the level of analysis, can only compete with the instructions for using the elevator, and when you are rightly pointed out the progressive delirium that you get out of your pen, you shout at the whole forest need advice. Write in another place, I will not tell you anything, but if you went under my text, if you please listen to my opinion. And most importantly, you don't need to tell me what to do, then I won't tell you where to go! "
  6. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
    Volkonsky (Vladimir) 30 September 2020 06: 00
    Quote: Oo sarcasm
    And sho, do you think the vice president and secretary of state of the United States are so crazy that they flooded into the rebellious square without protection? When Biden and Nuland passed out cookies, the area was 100% controlled by American troops. And the shooting of Maidan is an American operation, because there were no other armed persons there. All were ousted long ago.

    firstly, Biden was not on the Maidan in December 2013, Nulland was with US Ambassador Payette, and secondly, Nulland is not the secretary of state, but deputy. Secretary of State for Eastern Europe, and thirdly, American troops did not even guard the US Embassy in Kiev, they were not there from the word "absolutely", which does not cancel American participation in this operation to remove the legally elected
  7. Olegek Offline Olegek
    Olegek (Oleg) 30 September 2020 09: 52
    On Wednesday, September 23, a "secret", as our enemies say, inauguration of the newly elected President of the Republic of Belarus took place in Minsk.

    And the enemies are the entire Belarusian people
    Such cases
  8. Olegek Offline Olegek
    Olegek (Oleg) 30 September 2020 09: 57
    Rebellious Minsk: why the forceful interception of power in Belarus did not take place

    Because he was not there. But Lukashenka has already lost everything. He's no one - a frightened pensioner with a gun
  9. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) 30 September 2020 14: 21
    Yes, because we, the Slavs, are such a people, if something, then no matter how it comes out ... Here our neighbors, with a jerk, as if to wine warehouses, rushed after European lace panties, not thinking what would come of it, and now they have what they have, that is, now everyone who is not lazy has ... Yes, there were rallies, and numerous, mainly from young people, who have mothers and fathers who feed them, drink and dress them, and who they know very well that even in Europe there are no, and there cannot be, free milk rivers with jelly banks, so this belmaydan ended in nothing, and those who Father fired from their jobs for participating in this orgy will think hard about their own and their families' future ...