Victory will be in Minsk: the USA clearly showed the scenario of the war between Poland and Belarus


The American edition of Military Watch conducted a simulation of a potential military conflict between Poland and Belarus, reflecting the analysis on video. The assessment included the air, anti-aircraft, ground and strike capabilities of both countries.


Military experts believe that under certain circumstances, the growth of further tension between Warsaw and Minsk may lead to a real armed conflict, which will develop into a full-fledged war between the countries. At the same time, the United States, NATO and the EU countries will not fight for Poland, just as Russia will not participate in the confrontation instead of Belarus. Thus, Minsk and Warsaw will have to sort things out on their own, although the allies will not deny them some support.

The Belarusian Air Force has 38 MiG-29S, 12 Su-30SM and 21 Su-27 fighters, armed with R-27EP and R-77 air-to-air missiles with a range of up to 110 km. At the same time, the Polish Air Force has 48 F-16Cs armed with AIM-120C AMRAAM missiles with a range of up to 105 km and 18 Su-22M4 fighter-bombers equipped with outdated Kh-25ML, Kh-29L, Kh-29T and Kh-58U missiles. which do not pose a great threat to the Air Force and Air Defense of Belarus. In air battles, Minsk will have an advantage.

As for the air defense, then the advantage will also be on the side of the Belarusians. The presence of a large number of S-300, Buk, Tor-M2E air defense systems and the possible appearance of the S-400 in the near future will allow Belarus to create a deeply echeloned air defense system. At the same time, Warsaw can only boast of the presence of a small number of S-200 Vega and S-125 Pechora-2M air defense systems, which will be guaranteed to be destroyed by Kh-31P air-to-surface missiles.


In terms of manpower, there is a relative balance between the countries. Warsaw's slight superiority in tanks is compensated by the presence of 22 "flying tanks" in Minsk - Su-25 attack aircraft. Moreover, Belarus has a significant advantage in conventional and rocket artillery. In addition, Minsk has a powerful strike potential. Belarus is armed with 36 OTR-21 "Tochka" with a range of up to 185 km and OTR P-17, known as "Scud-B", with a range of up to 300 km, as well as local MLRS "Polonez".

As a result, the publication from the USA came to the conclusion that the outcome of the war would be sad for Warsaw, and victory would be for Minsk. Belarus has more powerful air force and air defense, and also has a serious strike potential in the form of missile systems.

Note that in the published Global Firepower rating for 2019, in which the military potential of 137 states of the planet was assessed, Belarus took 39th place, and Poland was in a higher 24th place.
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  1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
    Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 22 September 2020 12: 14
    -10 qualifying.
    Are the Russified psheks (Belarusians) morally ready to fight with the psheks? otherwise they will shoot like in Ukraine at night and run across the front line to Polish shops during the day.
    1. Andrey Ostroushko (Andrey Ostroushko) 22 September 2020 14: 38
      10
      Where did the Orthodox Belarusians suddenly become Russified Catholic Poles, did you dream? And why the hell would Belarusians run across the border to expensive Polish shops?
      1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
        Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 22 September 2020 17: 27
        -7
        then when Russia annexed the Polish lands and taught the population the Russian language. or were they always called Belarusians? and if the shops are so expensive, what kind of stench rose when running was banned?
        1. Andrey Ostroushko (Andrey Ostroushko) 25 September 2020 11: 28
          0
          ..then, when Russia annexed the Polish lands and taught the population the Russian language.

          And labor made a man out of a monkey, and Russia today is massively bringing Russians to the Crimea and Donbass. The question is, what then weren't all Poles taught Russian, if all of Poland was part of the Russian Empire for 100 years? Or, nevertheless, Catholic Poland seized at one time the Russian lands together with the Orthodox Russians, who do not need to be taught? And also, tell people how much coffee and a bun costs in the European Union and how much we have, but I don't need to tell.
          1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
            Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 25 September 2020 15: 11
            0
            do not confuse Slavs and Russians with each other. and I don't care how much coffee costs in Europe and Bulbashia. what did they get there? one of the principalities? so the homeland of Bandera was the Russian principality of Galicia. means Russian Bandera? Roll up the lips. you are not mentally and intellectually like Russians, but rather like Jews.
  2. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 22 September 2020 12: 37
    +6
    Note that in the published Global Firepower rating for 2019, in which the military potential of 137 states of the planet was assessed, Belarus took 39th place, and Poland was in a higher 24th place.

    ABOUT! This is a very helpful rating. I went in, looked, compared. Poland is significantly stronger in terms of such indicators as ... population size, defense budget, significant advantage in external debt, gold and foreign exchange reserves and purchasing power ... sad
    Another advantage of Poland is overwhelming in the navy ....., including the trade and the length of the coastline. It turns out that the Belarusian Sea is a myth and its rating crushed it with a bang laughing By the way, the Poles counted 3 submarines ... Interestingly, the Poles themselves remember about them? I did not notice the air defense comparison, maybe I missed it? Or is it not that important? And so on ... For those who want to dig around on their own:

    https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.asp
  3. Kuramori Reika Offline Kuramori Reika
    Kuramori Reika (Kuramori Reika) 22 September 2020 14: 15
    -5
    For 20 years Lukashenka himself raised those who would put him and his sons on bottles. I hope Russia will not let this bastard into Rostov. Better to let the parasite and the poor housewife kill each other.
    1. Bitter Offline Bitter
      Bitter (Gleb) 22 September 2020 21: 30
      +2
      Spiteful or, -no, you are Raika ... who offended you so?
  4. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 22 September 2020 15: 15
    -1
    All the advantage of Belarus over Poland comes down to one thing - it is Russia that will fulfill its obligations - the CSTO. Russia has combat experience, while Poland and Belarus do not, there is only a training ground. And when they shoot at targets this is one thing, and when in response, then it’s excuse me to be completely different.
    1. Kristallovich Offline Kristallovich
      Kristallovich (Ruslan) 22 September 2020 15: 46
      0
      All the advantage of Belarus over Poland comes down to one thing - it is Russia that will fulfill its obligations - the CSTO.

      And NATO will not fulfill its obligations to Poland?
      1. av58 Offline av58
        av58 (Andrei) 22 September 2020 18: 03
        +2
        But NATO will think.
        1. Bitter Offline Bitter
          Bitter (Gleb) 22 September 2020 21: 43
          +1
          What again, someone will think, but someone will immediately start jumping?
          Do you believe it yourself?

          At the same time, the United States, NATO and the EU countries will not fight for Poland, just as Russia will not participate in the confrontation instead of Belarus.

          This is the most topical anecdote about gross non-interference. laughing laughing
          Everyone shouts that it is impossible to intervene in any case, and without having time to turn off the cameras and microphones they are doing completely opposite things.
          Another victory won in a separately isolated analytical smoking room.
      2. PROmt Offline PROmt
        PROmt (Aleksey) 23 September 2020 01: 42
        0
        Not if Poland attacks first
      3. The comment was deleted.
      4. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 23 September 2020 12: 03
        0
        What nonsense, let there be no war between Poland and Belarus, there are no conflict zones and issues ... So you can speculate about a war between any countries, with zero possibility of war ... Here is a clash of giants, there are small satellites involved, then a confrontation is possible , but already in other layouts ...
    2. PROmt Offline PROmt
      PROmt (Aleksey) 23 September 2020 01: 42
      0
      Will comply if Poland attacks Belarus. But not to the same extent there
  5. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 22 September 2020 15: 54
    +3
    Belarus took 2020rd place in the 3 tank biathlon, which is very good. Only Russia and China are ahead. The Poles would never have gone there with their tanks.
  6. av58 Offline av58
    av58 (Andrei) 22 September 2020 18: 03
    +8
    Typical arithmetic approach. Besides, why did the Americans decide that Russia would stay away from such an alleged conflict? Pounding Poland, or at least taking part in it, is a rare opportunity that must be used.
    1. antibi0tikk Offline antibi0tikk
      antibi0tikk (Sergei) 22 September 2020 18: 49
      +2
      av58, plus you! I said everything right,

      Pounding Poland, or at least taking part in it, is a rare opportunity that must be used.

      I would go to help the Belarusian brothers.
    2. PROmt Offline PROmt
      PROmt (Aleksey) 23 September 2020 01: 45
      +1
      Why do we need to pile on pshek, it's easier to give our brothers equipment. They know how to use it and the Belarusians themselves pile on it in a week. But I think the war there will be no longer than 08.08.08
    3. Pound Offline Pound
      Pound (Alexander) 24 September 2020 13: 17
      +1
      Use yes so that even a name such as ** Poland ** is not left in history.
  7. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 22 September 2020 19: 23
    +1
    Quote: Kristallovich
    All the advantage of Belarus over Poland comes down to one thing - it is Russia that will fulfill its obligations - the CSTO.

    And NATO will not fulfill its obligations to Poland?

    You do not distort uzhayazhayy.S what fright NATO will stand up for Poland if the Poles attack themselves ???? Or do you think that Belarus will attack Poland ???
    I wrote that Belarus has an agreement with Russia. And in fact I compared the situation if something (God forbid) can happen. And it is obvious that this can happen ONLY from the Polish side, so to speak. And based on this, what does NATO have to do with the Poles? the first to climb ??????
    1. PROmt Offline PROmt
      PROmt (Aleksey) 23 September 2020 01: 46
      +1
      It would be possible to technically warm up Polish radics so that they provoke a conflict. Then there would be a reason to heap
  8. The comment was deleted.
  9. RFR Offline RFR
    RFR (RFR) 23 September 2020 20: 39
    +1
    Yes, we can't wait for the pseks to pile on, otherwise they are completely cut off, and no one will help them ...
    1. Pound Offline Pound
      Pound (Alexander) 24 September 2020 13: 22
      0
      Quote: RFR
      Yes, we can't wait for the pseks to pile on, otherwise they are completely cut off, and no one will help them ...

      And to whom they surrendered, the United States will not bother, and Germany loves them very much, so even ** CANNOT EAT **.