What will Germany and Russia lose from the closure of the Nord Stream 2 project?


By accepting the poisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, poisoned by someone unknown, Berlin put itself in an extremely delicate position. If Chancellor Angela Merkel "believes" the version about the attempt on his life by some "people in civilian clothes" with the help of "Novichok", Germany itself will pay a very high price for this, much more than Russia, which is customarily blamed in the West for definition.


It should be admitted that the one who actually poisoned Alexei shot two birds with one stone, a Russian and a German.

Everything is clear with us: "Navalny's case" may become the last straw that breaks the back of a camel called "Nord Stream-2". If, under pressure from the United States and other influential forces in Europe, Berlin abandons the gas pipeline or pauses it for an indefinite period of time, Gazprom will lose its investments, lose a significant share of the gas market in Western Europe and find itself firmly tied to the Ukrainian GTS.

It should be reminded that it is in an extremely dilapidated state, so it should be expected that the domestic monopolist will start to be actively “bred for money” so that it will pay for the overhaul of the pipeline. And there won't be much to go to if there is no Nord Stream 2, new problems will be created for us on the Turkish Stream, and the transit agreement with Nezalezhnaya will expire in 2024. How much it will cost Russia to repair the GTS in the Ukrainian corruption realities is scary to imagine.

But the collapse of Nord Stream 2 will mean no less problems in Germany itself, if not more.

At first, it should be clearly understood that the United States no longer regards Germany as a loyal ally in Europe that needs to be supported. With the coming to power of the "imperial" Donald Trump, Germany began to be perceived by the White House as a direct competitor to "America, which needs to be made great again." Attaching his own expensive gas to President Trump is just one of the challenges. For him at this stage, in principle, it is important to transfer the European Union from the Russian pipeline to any LNG, not necessarily even the American one. The point is that, due to the rise in the cost of energy resources, the competitiveness of European industry, primarily German, will decrease.

Secondlyif the White House forces Chancellor Merkel to abandon Nord Stream 2, Germany will automatically "fly in" on penalties. Some direct losses of Germany from the closure of the gas pipeline are estimated at 10 billion euros. But to this must be added the inevitable lawsuits from more than a hundred European companies, which in one way or another participated in the project. According to some preliminary estimates, the amount of compensation for lost profits could amount to another 20 billion euros. Even for rich Germany, this is a very decent amount of money.

Thirdly, Angela Merkel will personally suffer a serious reputational blow. In recent years, the Chancellor has tried to position Germany as a sovereign state that independently conducts its economic policies... If the United States can demonstratively "stall" the FRG, the leading power of the European Union, the smaller European countries themselves will line up, quickly forgetting about free-thinking, confusion and vacillation.

Theoretically, there is even a certain probability that Gazprom will be able to sue something in terms of compensation for itself. It would be nice, but it is worth remembering that judicial practice in European instances is usually not in favor of the Russian state corporation.
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  1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
    Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 22 September 2020 11: 49
    -3
    it is not American industry (which is in China) that will win, but American Jewish bankers, as in the case of the first two world wars.
  2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 22 September 2020 11: 56
    +2
    It should be admitted that the one who actually poisoned Alexei shot two birds with one stone, a Russian and a German.

    - Everyone understands that the Englishwoman crap!
    And about the connection to the Ukrainian pipe - this is also doubtful. This pipe has already made a test accident, and it will allow more! The pipeline is old, the Nazis are evil! They will blow up the gas pipeline to hell so that Muscovites will get less money from Europe!
    And Russia will have little to lose, unlike Germany. Russia can offer its own LNG, which is cheaper than the American one. But German products will definitely rise in price. Therefore, in this case, all the chancellors of Germany, both the present and the future, will be suckers!
  3. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 22 September 2020 13: 43
    0
    Some direct losses of Germany from the closure of the gas pipeline are estimated at 10 billion euros. But to this must be added the inevitable lawsuits from more than a hundred European companies, which in one way or another participated in the project.

    - Wow ... -that's right ...
    - Against the background of all this, one can only imagine what losses Gazprom (Russia) will incur then ... - after all, everything will cost many times more for Russia ... - Yes, this will simply throw the Russian economy back five years ...
    1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
      Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 22 September 2020 13: 55
      0
      will drop it again?)))) in the United States, viruses have thrown the economy for decades and do not whine. under Obama, the Russian economy has already been torn to shreds ... Madame is not working well.
  4. Bakht Online Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 22 September 2020 15: 00
    +2
    Everything in the article is not obvious. It is not clear why Gazprom should pay for the Ukrainian GTS?

    Imagine the situation that the Nord Stream was frozen and Russia (GazProm) refused to extend the transit agreement with Ukraine? In 2024, a bunch of long-term contracts with European countries are ending. For the remaining contracts, the capacities of Nord Stream-1 and Goluby with Turetsky are quite enough. And by that time the Power of Siberia-2 (Altai) will be built. Russia does not conclude new contracts with European countries (in particular with Poland) and the resource base of European gas goes to Asia. Of course, this is a loss of money, but not fatal.

    What will be the prospects for Europe's energy security? Give an analysis of this situation ...
    1. Bakht Online Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 22 September 2020 15: 02
      +2
      Most likely it is for this reason that Russia is in no hurry to complete the construction of Nord Stream-2. Merkel will be gone, and the new chancellor may abandon the project.
      1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
        Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 23 September 2020 20: 54
        0
        Quote: Bakht
        Most likely it is for this reason that Russia is in no hurry to complete the construction of Nord Stream-2. Merkel will be gone, and the new chancellor may abandon the project.

        In order not to waste goodness, turn the pipes to Kaliningrad, start the LNG plant - and sell gas to the USA wassat