Why does the West believe that Putin lost in Belarus

As protest moods persist in the streets of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko turned his gaze to the east in search of Putin's protection - the Belarusian leader is ready to do much to preserve his power and life. Footage of the two heads of state meeting in Sochi earlier this week shows a sweating Lukashenko either diligently recording Putin's speech or desperately trying to get his attention. But why can support for the Belarusian regime turn into a defeat for the Kremlin? Politico experts talk about this.

Lukashenko, as a politician and supporter of Russia, is highly unreliable. So, on the eve of the contested elections on August 9, the Belarusian leader accused Russia of trying to destabilize Belarus after the arrest of 33 alleged mercenaries of the Russian PMC. He now warns of a NATO attack and calls the protesters agents of the West. This change in Minsk's rhetoric is dictated by purely pragmatic reasons - since the EU rejected the August 9 vote as rigged, Moscow remains the only life-buoy for the beleaguered ruler.

Putin is reluctant to play along with Lukashenko - Russia is more beneficial to the gradual fall of the regime in Minsk than to overthrow it as a result of a popular uprising. The Russian Federation has promised military assistance and media support, but these steps are not selfish and can be paid for by privatizing Belarusian assets or closer integration between the two countries in favor of the Kremlin.

The talks about constitutional reform in Belarus, advertised by the Russian Federation and backed by Lukashenko, are partly an unsuccessful attempt to appease the protesters. But the very possibility of such transformations is a signal for Old Man that even if he survives the current political crisis, his power will no longer be the same.

The Kremlin could buy time by keeping Lukashenko in power. But by doing so, Russia risks alienating Belarusian society, which traditionally treats Moscow favorably, but does not back down from its demands for Lukashenka's departure.

- notes Politico, talking about losing policy Putin - he supports the tyrant dictator, thereby alienating the friendly people of Belarus.

I am sorry that you decided to conduct a dialogue with the usurper and not with the Belarusian people

- noted the leader of the opposition Svetlana Tikhanovskaya before the meeting of the presidents of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus in Sochi.

Belarusians have always considered Russians to be their brothers, but if Russia follows its current policy, this could change

- Nobel laureate Svetlana Aleksievich, member of the opposition council of Belarus, emphasized.
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  1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
    Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 21 September 2020 14: 35
    such smaller brothers in any yard on a bag of bones a whole flock will run. today they wag their tail, tomorrow they bite their leg.
  2. Netyn Offline Netyn
    Netyn (Netyn) 21 September 2020 15: 07
    Well, yes, the corrupt Alekseevich and the ten percent Smetana-Svetlana are the entire Belarusian society. Nobody else is included in it
  3. GRF Offline GRF
    GRF 21 September 2020 15: 10
    Do not be a petty tyrant, cut the bitches under you like the Balts ... Do not be a dictator, fulfill the will of the overdeveloped ... He reluctantly plays along - this is a masterpiece from the series:
    "war is peace", "freedom is slavery", "ignorance is power" ...

    lost and risks pushing away - the difference, however ...
  4. aries2200 Offline aries2200
    aries2200 (aries) 21 September 2020 15: 30
    it is necessary to immediately unite into a single state, through a referendum of fraternal peoples
  5. Tamara Smirnova Offline Tamara Smirnova
    Tamara Smirnova (Tamara Smirnova) 21 September 2020 17: 15
    Two ... - old and shabby and new and shabby, two corrupt individuals blathering something out from under the door of a public toilet. Only for zapadloidnyh "partners" they will fit, but in Russia they will be whipped in the face with a filthy broom, if only they try to stick in here.
  6. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
    Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 22 September 2020 08: 09
    Everything is as usual in the comments. Insults at the kindergarten level and not a word on the topic. Meanwhile, in sovereign Belarus, one can state the split of society: into forces for the Lukashenka regime and forces against the Lukashenka regime. What is their ratio, in connection with the falsification of the election results, is unknown. In addition, there is the factor of Grodno - an analogue of Western Ukraine. The GDP, realizing the unreliability of Lukashenka as an ally, is gaining time to gently change not only Lukashenka, but also the system of power itself. At the same time, Belarus economically completely and in everything depends on the Russian Federation. In the West, Belarus is not particularly expected, but there are nuances here. Poland and Lithuania, of course, see Minsk in their area of ​​interest. In my subjective opinion, Belarus now resembles the legendary literary car "Antelope," for which Ostap Bender and the priests are bargaining. Moreover, the latter are not averse to receiving it for free. Russia pays. And it seems that at the first stage of soft removal of Lukashenka from power, he will win. But the trend of integration with the West for a part of the Belarusian society will not go anywhere. Everyone wants to live like in Germany and work like in Belarus. Against the background of the standard of living in Europe, life in the Russian Federation does not look particularly attractive. Although, of course, the Russian Federation, as a sponsor, a sales market for Belarusian products, the source of cheap raw materials is interesting. Whether Moscow will continue to pull Belarus economically is difficult to say now. Time makes its own adjustments, new inputs appear: the crown, energy prices, friction between states and China, India and China, new realities in the Middle East, Ukraine, etc. All this makes the policy of influential countries unpredictable in time and space. Today, the steps of the Russian Federation towards Belarus are optimal: to prevent the emergence of a hotbed of instability, or another hostile state on its western borders. But what will happen, relatively speaking tomorrow, is difficult to say.
    1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
      Bulanov (Vladimir) 22 September 2020 10: 47
      Everyone wants to live like in Germany and work like in Belarus.

      - In Germany, too, not all sugar. There, some German workers receive no more than Muslim refugees living on benefits. And the new wave of coronavirus will further reset the EU economy. Unless they will start turning on the money machine.
      And the comparison with "Antelope" is very successful!
      1. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
        Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 22 September 2020 12: 15
        Well, they don't understand that in Germany, for example, not everything is smeared with honey. But they believe almost everything that is smeared. Because someone has been to Germany. Outwardly - impressive! And at what price it is given and whether everyone - no one thinks. )