The confrontation between Belarus and its Eastern European neighbors and Ukraine, which joined them, has moved to a new level. President Lukashenko, whose legality of re-election was refused to be recognized by the European Union, gave an order to close the state border with everyone except Russia. What can this step indicate?
Alexander Grigorievich actually stated that before the outbreak of a "hot war" with Belarus, the West had "very few tricks" left:
We are forced to withdraw the troops from the streets, put the army under arms and close the state border from the West, first of all, with Lithuania and Poland.
A military threat is a very serious statement, but how reasonable is it? Yes, Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine have sheltered many fugitive Belarusian oppositionists. Vilnius was the first to recognize “President Tikhanovskaya”, and Warsaw presented Svetlana Georgievna with a beautiful house and offered to be nominated for the Nobel Prize. Yes, mass protests against Lukashenka are coordinated to one degree or another from the territory of neighboring countries. But war?
I would like to remind that Moscow is connected with Minsk not only by the treaty on the creation of the Union State, but also within the framework of the CSTO. Anyone's attack on Belarus will force the RF Ministry of Defense into action, and Russia is a nuclear power, which any aggressor will have to reckon with, no matter how many tanks or aircraft he may have.
It is no secret that the Kremlin is looking at deeper integration of Belarus within the framework of the Union State, which until recently caused serious fears of President Lukashenko himself. Some Belarusians perceived the announcement of the closure of borders with Europe as the lowering of the “iron curtain” from Minsk and the surrender of the country to Moscow. Here is how the social network commented on this news one reader:
Everything is clear, the guarantor of independence has signed the latest roadmaps. Goodbye, independent Belarus, long live the Belarusian Federal District ... Well, Russians, prepare bread and salt, we will move into your communal apartment on the way ...
It sounds pretty categorical, but let's calmly figure it out. The legitimacy of President Lukashenko has been questioned by Western countries, and it would be frivolous to ignore this. All "road maps" signed by him in such a legal status will be challenged by the leading states of the world, therefore, the real unification of Russia and Belarus from the very start will begin with international sanctions. The Kremlin should probably understand this.
“Annexing” Belarus and turning it into a federal district of Russia is, in today's realities, the stupidest idea that will create a lot of new problems. No, it would be even more stupid to refuse integration, but a transitional period is needed. First, everything in Belarus must "settle down": undergo constitutional reform and re-election of the president. Alexander Lukashenko must voluntarily vacate the post of head of state, handing it over to another person, whose powers and terms of office will be seriously limited. By the way, after the new elections, Mrs. Tikhanovskaya will lose the right to call herself “the Belarusian president”, which will remove one more problem. And only after that it will be possible to sign some "road maps".
Taking into account the above, by his decision to close the border with Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine, President Lukashenko, apparently, is solving a number of more mundane tasks.
At first, he sets up a cordon for the entry into the country of trained militants from the territory of, for example, Ukraine, who could make an attempt to shake the situation by transferring the Belarusian protest from a decidedly peaceful to a violent one.
Secondly, we can talk about the introduction of a single state border and the regime of its crossing. Recall that Minsk previously allowed foreigners to enter the country without a visa, which caused great displeasure in Moscow.
Thirdly, the risk of an external military threat from the NATO bloc gives another reason to expand the Russian military presence in Belarus. Regular joint exercises of the RF and RB Ministry of Defense have already been announced. Perhaps, new objects of military infrastructure will appear, which should become a guarantor of security both from an attack from outside and from a peaceful situation inside a friendly country.