End of Iranian embargo: Russia prepares to change the balance of power in the Middle East


On October 18 of this year, the arms embargo against Iran, established by UN Security Council Resolution 2231 of July 20, 2015, for a five-year period expires.


It should be noted that different countries prepare for this date in different ways: Tehran is making plans to modernize its own army, Moscow and Beijing are calculating how many and what types of military equipment This country of the Middle East, which is in a state of perpetual conflict with the United States, Israel and a good half of its neighbors, is capable of purchasing, and Washington is shouting to the whole world that it will never allow Russian and Chinese weapons into Iran. Whose plans are destined to come true?

How Americans outsmarted themselves


Strictly speaking, from the point of view of international law, there can be no discrepancies in this matter. In fact, the embargo, that is, a strict ban on the supply of any weapons to Tehran, was lifted by the same UN Security Council resolution mentioned above, adopted after the conclusion of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which marked Tehran's abandonment of nuclear ambitions. From that moment on, it was said that the supply of a number of weapons to this country is possible only with the permission of the Security Council, which must approve or reject the deal in each specific case. As you might guess, in the conditions of the almost unconditional dominance of the United States in the UN, this seemingly not too serious formality turned in fact into a completely insurmountable barrier.

At the same time, it was about such important weapons for the state's defense as military aircraft (aircraft and helicopters), armored vehicles, cannon artillery of 75 mm calibers, surface and submarine warships with a displacement of half a thousand tons and above. Missiles with a range exceeding 25 kilometers also fell under the restrictions, but only those that did not belong to air defense systems. The last clause allowed Russia to finally complete the fulfillment of the contract for the supply of S-300 air defense systems to Iran, as well as the Pantsir-S1 and Tor complexes. If they were not part of the local air defense system, the United States would most likely inevitably try to "try to protect the Iranian sky" during the recent aggravation of relations between the countries. It is not surprising that in the current conditions Tehran has more than concretely outlined its own intentions to begin massive purchases of Russian weapons. And even more ...

As recently as July of this year, Iranian Ambassador to Moscow Qassem Jalali said that his country considers Russia its "priority partner" and, above all, in the area of ​​military-technical cooperation. According to the diplomat, consultations are already being prepared at a fairly serious level, during which the entire range of possible supplies will be discussed, which, as Jalali stressed, "will significantly contribute to strengthening Iran's defense capability." At the same time, high-ranking representatives of Washington are trying to make it clear at every opportunity that nothing like this will happen under any circumstances. Initially, for this, the United States tried to use the capabilities of the UN Security Council, trying to push through it an appropriate resolution on the extension of restrictions. This, in particular, was repeatedly stated from the rostrum of the organization by the US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook.

However, in this case, there is an incident that is the result of the actions of the Americans themselves, in a sense, outwitted themselves. Let me remind you that the current US administration (specifically, Donald Trump) announced its own withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan, which Iran allegedly "was not implemented" back in 2018. According to the letter of international law, from that very moment, Washington has no concern with everything related to the JDPP and cannot demand the adoption of any decisions within its framework. This moment, by the way, was announced by the Russian representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya back in May this year - in response to another demarche of American diplomats. Later, the same point of view was expressed by the permanent mission of the PRC to this world organization. However, when did the Americans care about someone's opinion other than their own?

Change the geopolitical "alignment" in one fell swoop


US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, I remember, in April this year broadcast to the journalists who gathered at a press briefing in his department that the United States "will not allow the lifting of the embargo on Iran." Then the head of American diplomacy still pinned hopes on the fact that he would be able to "bend" the UN Security Council under himself, but already at that moment he mentioned the possibility of using "other options" by the American side. Now that Washington's original plan has essentially failed (permanent members of the Security Council, China and Russia will never let it come true - especially in the current realities), the Americans seem ready to sharply raise the stakes. All the same Pompeo recently announced that "without waiting for action" from its allies in the UN, the United States "decided to take full responsibility for itself." So far, it is not entirely clear what exactly we are talking about. Does the US military intend to sink ships heading for Iran if they suspect them of transporting weapons? Shoot down planes that can transport military cargo to this country? Or do they intend in some other way to push the situation towards the beginning of the Third World War ?!

However, it is more likely that Washington intends, contrary to logic and law, to try to use the so-called "special mechanism for settling disputes within the framework of the FDPA" laid down in the same Resolution 2231. Without going into details, we can state that its activation will mean a "rollback" of the situation to the times of the most severe and comprehensive anti-Iranian sanctions and bans on any cooperation with this country. Purely American "logic": we withdraw from the agreement, but we will appeal to it when it suits us! It is not without reason that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reacted to such inclinations by quoting an American proverb, the closest analogue of which in our speech is the well-known words about eating fish and trying to sit comfortably. Well, in general, you get the idea ...

Tellingly, Mr. Pompeo does not even hide the fact that the main goal of the vigorous activity developed by his department is the desire "to prevent Iran from buying Chinese armored vehicles and Russian air defense systems." That is, not weapons in general, but products of the military-industrial complex of quite specific countries. At the same time, the head of the State Department is either weakly in control of the situation (which is unlikely), or, excuse me, is simply fooling around. In the event of the start of deliveries of our weapons to Tehran, it will not only be about new S-300 divisions or even the appearance of much more sophisticated Triumphs from this country. According to numerous experts, the first place for Iran today is the creation of a modern and combat-ready air force. What the country now possesses can be called military aviation only with a very big stretch. F-4 "Phantom", F-5, F-14, as well as the Soviet MiG-29 and Su-24, whose age has been estimated for many decades, can be characterized by a quote from a popular anecdote about a resourceful ensign: “They fly, of course, but only very low "! So, the "dream number 1" for the Iranian military is the Russian multipurpose fighters Su-30SM and Su-35. And it is precisely the appearance of these formidable military vehicles in their hands that they categorically do not want both in Washington and in Tel Aviv.

Another important point is mobile missile systems for protecting the coastline K-300P Bastion-P. These complexes, equipped with 300 kilometers of striking force and capable of tearing to shreds rather serious ships with the Onyx, will finally put an end to American attempts to "flex the muscles" of their own aircraft carrier strike groups off the Iranian coast. And these are just a couple of main points. But we are certainly talking about a much wider range of supplies - Iran would have enough money, and Russia would have enough will.

However, the financial issue in this situation, perhaps, is not the main one. The appearance of at least the aforementioned types of weapons in Iran will instantly change almost the entire military "alignment" in the Middle East region. First of all, the extremely insolent vultures from the IDF will have to fold their wings, allowing themselves to launch missile and bomb strikes where and when they please, including on the territory that is in the sphere of our exclusive interests of Syria. Sheikhs of the UAE, Qatar and other local states, which are loyal satellites of the United States, will have to behave somewhat more modestly. As, by the way, Turkey, which has thought too much of itself recently ... And the US itself is unlikely to continue trying to talk with Tehran exclusively from a position of strength - realizing this very moment, Washington is so opposed to lifting the rest of the embargo. However, this is not all. Qasem Jalali, already mentioned by me, speaking about the prospects of cooperation between Iran and Russia, said about the possibility of creating a new interstate entity, something like a "geopolitical club", which could include countries that categorically disagree with the United States' claims to world domination and the strength of this is suffering harassment from the restrictions and sanctions imposed by Washington. Tehran sees Russia and China as their companions in this unification. Surely it is possible to “write down” Belarus on the fly, as well as Venezuela with Syria and North Korea.

"Nice company - nothing to say!" - Someone can skeptically comment on this perspective. What can you say here? It is necessary to start from somewhere the construction of the same multipolar world, the necessity of which has been repeated for so long in the Kremlin ?! We can continue to wait for the best proposals, while simultaneously enduring more and more provocations with "poisoned oppositionists" and the like. We can try to continue to "negotiate in an amicable way" with the West, which Russia does not see and has never seen except as its own colony. Or - to start with those who are ready today to challenge American hegemony not in words but in deeds. The choice is ours.
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  1. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 17 September 2020 10: 20
    -7
    There are tons of questions. Does Russia need to strengthen Iran? If so, to what extent. What is the balance of benefits and risks in strengthening Iran.
    Everything is extremely ambiguous. Helping Iran just because they are enemies of the states is ridiculous. Cooperation with Iran will irritate Turkey and greatly irritate the Arab world and Israel. The collective west wants to trade with Iran, but as long as the Ayatollahs are there, the threats are higher than the benefits.
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 17 September 2020 12: 09
      +8
      There are tons of questions. Does Russia need to strengthen Iran? If so, to what extent. What is the balance of benefits and risks in strengthening Iran.

      The question is right good and this is a subject for deep discussion.

      Everything is extremely ambiguous. Helping Iran just because they are enemies of the states is ridiculous.

      Quite right, that's just why it's ridiculous. But .... it is at least beneficial and allows you to change the balance of power in the region.

      Cooperation with Iran will irritate Turkey and greatly irritate the Arab world and Israel.

      Cooperation between the Arab world and "Ichkeria" irritated Russia, and Israel's cooperation with Georgia and Ukraine. So what? Did that stop someone? So eat is served, enjoy. By the way, Israel is helping Georgia to establish air defense right now. Is someone calculating Russia's reaction at the same time?

      The collective west wants to trade with Iran, but as long as the Ayatollahs are there, the threats are higher than the benefits.

      And Russia wants to trade with the United States, but the snag is the anti-Russian regime and it considers threats above benefits. Do you think the regime should be changed?
      Everyone has long known what the collective West wants is to tear and plunder Iran as its neighbors. Iraq, Syria, Libya are enjoying a "free trade regime" with the collective West right now.
      In this case, Russia's interest is to do so that the desires do not coincide with the possibilities.
    2. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 17 September 2020 12: 57
      +7
      Quote: AlexZN
      Does Russia need to strengthen Iran?

      Yes need. Up to the level of Turkey. So that they can control the entire Persian Gulf and the airspace above it.
      Iran is certainly not our friend. But not an enemy either. And Iran's armed neutrality will weaken the threat to Russia from the south.
    3. sgrabik Offline sgrabik
      sgrabik (Sergei) 17 September 2020 16: 43
      +6
      We must finally move away from the stupid habit of doing something with a constant eye on the United States. The times of America's total and unconditional domination in the world are coming to an end and one should not stubbornly cling to the old distribution of roles, where Russia was assigned the modest and ridiculous role of a backward country - a gas station !!!
    4. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 17 September 2020 21: 31
      +6
      Does Russia need to strengthen Iran?

      Russia does not need to weaken Iran in favor of the West.

      Helping Iran just because they are enemies of the states is ridiculous.

      Why would you? I mean, where is the absurdity? The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

      Cooperation with Iran will irritate Turkey and greatly irritate the Arab world and Israel.

      Don't give a damn 33 times! In the late 80s, I was greatly annoyed that the Arabs had brought down the price of oil and we felt it for ourselves. From Israel, after the USSR helped it to take place - only problems.

      The collective west wants to trade with Iran, but as long as the Ayatollahs are there, the threats are higher than the benefits.

      Here is the flag in their hands and a drum around their neck! And the Ayatollahs do not bother us. And if Iran fights with our weapons, we will have the opportunity to influence the Islamic forces controlled by Iran so that they do not get into the Russian Federation and the zone of interests of the Russian Federation.
      Well, plus the load of the military-industrial complex, GDP growth, etc.
      So no questions asked.
      1. Boris Arbel (Latuha) 17 September 2020 22: 44
        0
        From Israel, after the USSR helped it to take place - only problems. Do you understand what you write? You might think that the USSR created Israel and some Vani think so. They only voted in the UN for accepting Israel as a state, 33 votes were in favor (of which 3 were from the USSR), 13 were against. Thank you for your help. And then you began to help all our enemies (those who want to destroy Israel) and so on to this day. But in general, you great fellows love to help various slippers (losers in Yiddish) and eight something good will work out. In the meantime, things are still there.
        1. boriz Offline boriz
          boriz (boriz) 18 September 2020 01: 40
          +8
          ... 33 votes were in favor (of which 3 were from the USSR), 13 were against. Thanks for the help.

          Please contact. Is it okay that the USSR is a permanent member of the UN Security Council with a veto right? He might not have voted.
          But even before the recognition of Israel by the UN:

          Speaking at a meeting of the special session of the UN General Assembly on May 14, 1947, the representative of the USSR A.A. Gromyko said that “English
          the mandate regime turned the country into a paramilitary police state living in constant tension ”, and, taking into account all the disasters that befell the Jewish people during the Second World War, it is necessary to find an early solution to the question of the fate of the surviving Jews. Speaking about the future of Palestine, A. A. Gromyko noted that "the legitimate interests of the Jewish, as well as the Arab people of Palestine can be protected only if an independent two-pronged democratic Arab-Jewish state is created."
          However, as the Soviet representative stressed, the final decision on the future of Palestine should be taken only after considering the conclusions of the UN special commission. If she confirms that relations between Jews and Arabs in Palestine are so damaged that the creation of a two-pronged state is impossible, then “then it would be necessary to consider the second option, ...
          partition of Palestine into two independent independent states: Jewish and Arab.

          Without this, the state of Israel would not have taken place.

          ... the head of the foreign policy department of the Jewish state M. Charette asked the USSR for recognition: “I take this opportunity to
          to express feelings of deep gratitude and understanding of the Jewish people for the firm stand taken by the USSR delegation to the UN in support of the formation of an independent sovereign Jewish state; for her consistent promotion
          this idea, despite all the difficulties….

          Golda Meir:

          No matter how radically the Soviet attitude towards us changed over the next twenty-five years, I cannot forget the picture that presented itself to me then. Who knows if we would have resisted if not for the weapons and ammunition that we were able to purchase from Czechoslovakia and transport through Yugoslavia and other Balkan countries in those dark days of the outbreak of the war, until the situation changed in June 1948?

          It is not as easy to hang noodles on Vanya's ears as some Moishes think.
          1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
            Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 18 September 2020 04: 45
            0
            What other veto? There is no veto in the UN General Assembly, by the decision of which Israel was recognized.
        2. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 20 September 2020 15: 35
          +4
          Do not forget your history, the Jews gathered in the USSR - tankmen, artillerymen, with supplies of Czech and other weapons, defended Israel in 1948. Further, since the 1950s, when Israel fled under the wing of the United States, relations deteriorated radically, and therefore the persecution of Jews in the USSR began, but Stalin's death stopped everything ... Israel's godson was definitely I. Stalin, ask about the facts .. ...
  2. Breard Offline Breard
    Breard (Serg) 17 September 2020 10: 24
    -6
    Unfortunately .. just "will" is not enough. The Israelis are whining for a whimper, and Vovan will refuse the obvious proceeds and the possibility of supplying equipment, and hence components, weapons, ammunition ..... personnel training!
    1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
      Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 18 September 2020 04: 50
      -4
      The Israelis never actually whined, but kicked in the face of the enemies who were trying to destroy them. Soviet clients who came to the UN to complain about the cruel Israelis who gave them all their Islamic mugs were whining in the face. And Russia can supply as much as it wants, all the more. there will be reputational losses of Russian weapons, which will be destroyed if necessary.
      1. Alex Eustace Offline Alex Eustace
        Alex Eustace 18 September 2020 18: 37
        +1
        I am sure that Stalin would be very upset if he found out what an ungrateful, disgusting and evil American mongrel the Israel created with his filing turned into, and Jews saved from complete destruction should honor him no less than Moses - and you are only capable of dirty tricks. teaches a pity!
        1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
          Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 19 September 2020 10: 12
          -5
          For those who carry the same nonsense - Israel was not created out of any "submission of Stalin", but was created by the first Zionists. Stalin only voted "for" in the UN, proceeding from his interests. It was not Stalin who saved the Jews, but the Red Army, in which the Jews fought exactly the same way as others. And Israel never intended to become a Soviet mongrel.
      2. Woland Offline Woland
        Woland (Woland) 18 September 2020 20: 22
        +2
        Mr. Bruk, the Soviet "clients" did not whine and our face is by no means Islamic. You have such an inflated opinion about your tiny country the size of the Moscow region and half of its population, only because no one from decent countries has ever been closely involved in Israel and Israel is still alive only because the ears of the Americans are looming behind it ... The United States is rapidly weakening and soon it will not be up to you. And the countries surrounding Israel have been waiting for this for a long time. Then we'll see whose weapon will suffer reputation losses and who will whine. In modern war there will be no tank and infantry battles, for all your dwarf state, two nuclear or a dozen good vacuum warheads are enough.
        1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
          Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 19 September 2020 10: 23
          -2
          Mr. Woland, this country the size of the Moscow region defeated several united Arab armies, which were fully supported by the "great-mighty", and he himself took part. At the same time, in 1967 the United States did not help Israel in any way, and moreover, it respected the embargo on the simpleton Israel has weapons. In 1973 I helped with weapons, but these weapons were fewer and not of better quality than those supplied by the USSR to the Arabs, I'm not talking about the multiple numerical advantage. So do not make yourself a laughing stock. For general development, Israel has nuclear weapons and delivery means ...
          1. Woland Offline Woland
            Woland (Woland) 19 September 2020 17: 24
            +4
            Mr. Brooke, you are the one making yourself a laughing stock. Yes, the USSR helped the Arab armies with weapons and advisers, and helped Israel itself through Czechoslovakia, as indicated in the posts above. I repeat my thesis, Israel has never faced real armies in battle (the Arabs do not count - how they fight in Syria, everyone can see). As for nuclear weapons, the technology of which France secretly gave you, do not flatter yourself either. You only have tactical weapons. And even that is not so much. No Iron Domes can save you from being hit by ballistic missiles. You and Iran are sometimes afraid to shake your knees, because they have at least operational-tactical missiles. Do not be ridiculous about the defeat of the united Arab armies. One Hezbollah in 2006 showed Israel where crayfish hibernate. In the event of a hot war, Israel will not be rescued by either the Merkavas or modified F-35s. To survive, you need to pray for the United States and Putin, which are still protecting you, otherwise the horns and legs will remain. You can and should be a patriot of your country, but you don't need to be driven to the point of absurdity by your statements about the Great and Mighty Israel. "Strong but light", as they say
  3. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 17 September 2020 13: 44
    -3
    Quote: 123
    There are tons of questions. Does Russia need to strengthen Iran? If so, to what extent. What is the balance of benefits and risks in strengthening Iran.

    The question is right good and this is a subject for deep discussion.

    Everything is extremely ambiguous. Helping Iran just because they are enemies of the states is ridiculous.

    Quite right, that's just why it's ridiculous. But .... it is at least beneficial and allows you to change the balance of power in the region.

    Cooperation with Iran will irritate Turkey and greatly irritate the Arab world and Israel.

    Cooperation between the Arab world and "Ichkeria" irritated Russia, and Israel's cooperation with Georgia and Ukraine. So what? Did that stop someone? So eat is served, enjoy. By the way, Israel is helping Georgia to establish air defense right now. Is someone calculating Russia's reaction at the same time?

    The collective west wants to trade with Iran, but as long as the Ayatollahs are there, the threats are higher than the benefits.

    And Russia wants to trade with the United States, but the snag is the anti-Russian regime and it considers threats above benefits. Do you think the regime should be changed?
    Everyone has long known what the collective West wants is to tear and plunder Iran as its neighbors. Iraq, Syria, Libya are enjoying a "free trade regime" with the collective West right now.
    In this case, Russia's interest is to do so that the desires do not coincide with the possibilities.

    I agree, in many ways.
    On the last point, I am afraid that Russia's desires will not coincide with the possibilities.
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 17 September 2020 23: 01
      +3
      I agree, in many ways.
      On the last point, I am afraid that Russia's desires will not coincide with the possibilities.

      Let's take a look. Russia does not need either a pro-Western regime or a second Libya on its southern borders.
  4. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 17 September 2020 13: 54
    0
    Bullshit question. Money doesn't smell.
    We will sell weapons, and they, and any "collective west". Only that won't change much.
    As the Jews bombed, they will continue to bomb. As they have threatened, they will continue to threaten.
    1. GRF Offline GRF
      GRF 17 September 2020 15: 53
      -3
      I'm not sure about American supplies, that's probably why they care.
      The Iranians did not even regret a civilian plane, thinking that the enemy flew towards them, so if there is something, then they will not begin to threaten so ... And the Jews will again have to look for new routes ...
      So the situation will change.
      1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
        Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 18 September 2020 04: 54
        0
        What are the routes, where are the routes? What are you talking about? And you don't need a lot of skill against civilian airliners, this is not to fight with Heil-Avir.
        1. GRF Offline GRF
          GRF 18 September 2020 14: 22
          0
          Regarding the change of routes, it is normal "the smart one will not go up the hill, the smart one will bypass the mountain":

          https://topcor.ru/16438-rossija-pomogla-zakryt-zapadnuju-granicu-sirii-ot-vvs-izrailja.html

          As for the skill, it is not necessary: ​​still as it should, someone over there blew up MH17 so that even justice was concussed ...
          so, wait and see ...
  5. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 17 September 2020 18: 20
    -4
    -Russia's Iraq is a real enemy ... -Because Russia has already clearly indicated; that Isis is a group banned in Russia ... -And Iran ... is not a group, but a whole "state-Ishil" ... -Well ... so what other explanations can there be ???
    - What can be the supply of Russian weapons to Iran ???
    - Yes ... - "money doesn't smell"; but these supplies of weapons will not enrich Russia at all ... - With these supplies, Russia will only strengthen China's position in Iran ... - And then what ???
    And then Iran will begin to supply its excellent (and very cheap at cost) oil (and gas) without any restrictions and regardless of all sorts of bans (and with the full support of China) ... - "to everyone who wants to" ... - in this field ... - and Russia itself, including ... -That's all the Russian profit for the supplied weapons ... arrived ... -The weapons were supplied, for example ... -for $ 1,5 billion; and losses from the loss of the oil market were acquired for tens of billions ...
    - Yes, and the supply of weapons was one-time; and the loss of the market ... is a "sad constant" ...
    -In addition, Russia today itself is very badly in need of modern weapons ... -The entire Russian Northern Sea Route needs to be strengthened and equipped ... -NATO is already completely insolent and is conducting maneuvers in the water area of ​​the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Russia .. ...
    - And Iran does not even allow Russian planes to fly over its territory ...
    -So, what is next ??? - What kind of business can Russia have with Iran ???
    1. The comment was deleted.
  6. Terry18 Offline Terry18
    Terry18 (Andrey Evdokimov) 19 September 2020 10: 04
    -1
    Generally speaking, Iran considers Syria, which borders Israel, to be a zone of its exclusive interests. Russia has a place there for Iran for its own money and cleared it out on its own.