Alternative for Berlin: Poland turns from an adversary into a competitor to the SP-2


Against the background of the permanent problems of Nord Stream 2, the proposal to replace Russian gas for Europe with Polish gas was rather unusual. Warsaw offers Berlin to use its Baltic Pipe gas pipeline under construction for this, which is expected to be commissioned in 2022. What is really behind this idea?


Piotr Müller, a spokesman for the Polish government, said:

If such needs are announced from the German side, then Poland is open to use the infrastructure that it itself is building for its energy security.


Warsaw's official position is that SP-2 threatens European energy security and solidarity. Well, such a point of view has a right to exist. But there are others. For example, do not forget that Poland still buys Russian gas through the Yamal-Europe pipeline system. Warsaw intends to completely abandon purchases from Gazprom only by 2022. It should be admitted that the Poles have done a lot to diversify the supply of "blue fuel".

At first, in 2015, an LNG terminal with a capacity of 5 billion cubic meters of gas was built in the city of Swinoujscie. There are plans to expand it to 7,5 billion cubic meters. In addition, a second floating LNG terminal will be commissioned in Gdansk. Warsaw has signed long-term contracts for the supply of liquefied natural gas with companies from the United States and Great Britain. The ambitious plans of the Polish government are described by its authorized representative for energy infrastructure, Piotr Naimsky:

We build interconnectors with neighbors. We are going to give our neighbors access to gas through the Polish network.

Secondly, in two years Poland intends to replace 10 billion cubic meters of Russian gas with Norwegian. For this, the construction of the Baltic Pipe has begun, which is to connect the republic with Scandinavia.

The idea of ​​diversifying supplies is understandable in itself, but the plans to replace Nord Stream-2 with this gas pipeline raise questions. The capacity of two lines of the Russian-German pipeline exceeds the Polish one by 5,5 times. “Baltic Pipe” cannot seriously compare in terms of its throughput capacity and with the half-capacity project of “Gazprom”. It should also be borne in mind that exactly the same gas will go through the Baltic Pipe that is now going to Germany and other Western European countries, and this does not increase its reserves in Norwegian fields.

The picture changes somewhat if viewed through the prism of the toughest scenario of US sanctions pressure against Gazprom. For example, during the investigation of the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Russia, the construction of Nord Stream 2 will be frozen. For example, taking into account all the bureaucratic and judicial red tape, until 2022. This means that European customers will not receive the expected volumes of Russian gas. By that time, the Baltic Pipe will be commissioned, as well as a number of new LNG terminals in Poland and neighboring EU countries. At the end of 2024, the transit agreement with Ukraine will expire, and Kiev, under pressure from Washington, may refuse to conclude a new agreement.

This means that Gazprom automatically loses most of its share in the European market. The prices for "blue fuel" are soaring sharply, and LNG is finally starting to "rule". In this context, Poland, with its two LNG terminals and the Baltic Pipe, which will take 10 billion cubic meters of Norwegian gas from Germany, is turning into a major regional hub and is starting to play a completely different role in Europe. the economy и policy... This is where interconnectors with neighbors come in handy, which will make it possible to resell imported fuel with a decent margin.
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  1. 123 Offline
    123 (123) 10 September 2020 12: 47
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    Secondly, in two years, Poland intends to replace 10 billion cubic meters of Russian gas with Norwegian. For this, the construction of the Baltic Pipe ("Baltic Pipe") has begun, which is to connect the republic with Scandinavia.

    Baltic Pipe was planned for 5 billion cubic meters. If it's not a secret, where did 10 come from?

    For example, during the investigation of the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Russia, the construction of Nord Stream 2 will be frozen. For example, taking into account all the bureaucratic and judicial red tape, until 2022. This means that European customers will not receive the expected volumes of Russian gas.

    But how can they cope with supplies without Nord Stream 2? Your assumptions are rather strange. no

    By that time, the Baltic Pipe will be commissioned, as well as a number of new LNG terminals in Poland and neighboring EU countries.

    Baltic Pipe is 10% of the Nord Stream, the rest of the gas will be collected from Novatek through the terminals? The USA does not have so much gas for export. Shale revolution "ALL" request

    At the end of 2024, the transit agreement with Ukraine will expire, and Kiev, under pressure from Washington, may refuse to conclude a new agreement.

    In 2024, there may well be no subject that wants to refuse to conclude a treaty, and Washington may be storming the Confederate militia, the last elite units of the Capitol defenders, consisting of Afro-Ukrainians and LGBT people, are unlikely to hold the stronghold of democracy even with the help of Saint Greta.

    In this context, Poland, with its two LNG terminals and the Baltic Pipe, which will take 10 billion cubic meters of Norwegian gas from Germany, is turning into a major regional hub and is beginning to play a different role in European economy and politics.

    You should perform in humorous shows. laughing With a light movement ... Poland is turning ...

    In Norway, production is falling, who will pump gas from the other side of the pipe? Gazprom? If Poland tries to take away gas from Germany, the Germans will take away subsidies and the hicks will trade dung on their hub.
  2. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 10 September 2020 16: 30
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    ... and LNG finally starts to "steer".

    Whose LNG will steer, do not specify? The one to be shot from the Gulf of Mexico? Or the one nearby, in Ust Luga? Or the one from Yamal? Yamal is not only closer to the Gulf of Mexico, but also the cost of liquefaction there is 30% lower. Geography, however, climate ...
    By the way, in Ust Luga the cost is lower. Not 30%, of course, but 10-15%. It's cooler there than the Gulf of Mexico. +40 happens very rarely there. But - 20 happens.
  3. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 10 September 2020 16: 39
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    By the way, it is not necessary to carry LNG from Yamal to Swinoujscie. There are closer, there are three terminals on the coast of the North Sea and the English Channel, they can't wait. Not a single day of existence was loaded by more than 30%. And there is a hub and natural gas storage facilities of friendly companies nearby (in West Germany). Poland is not needed here at all.
  4. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 10 September 2020 16: 59
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    In general, I got a strong impression that the Norwegians agreed to the Baltic Pipe solely in order to pump Russian gas to themselves in the medium term. Their production is steadily falling. Somewhere in the year 2022 -2023, there will be the last rise in production. But he will be the last. The last gas field will be commissioned. There won't be others. And it's not a fact that the Norwegians (knowing this) will share this gas so generously and quickly with their EU colleagues. Rather, in the light of the impending global crisis (one should not hope that by the end of this - early next year, the economies will recover), they will squeeze the last remaining gas and stretch the pleasure as much as possible. And when the gas still runs out (like everything good), they will fall to the life-giving Baltic Pipe. And Poland will again have to step on the throat of its song and knock off a little money on the transit of Russian gas. Now to Norway.
  5. margo Offline
    margo (margo) 10 September 2020 17: 25
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    Gazprom automatically loses most of its share in the European market.

    - late, already lost. Gazprom's supplies to the European gas market fell by 24,2% in the first quarter of this year. Data of the Federal Customs Service (FCS) of the Russian Federation. Sales of Gazprom's blue fuel to Germany, according to the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, decreased over the same time by 45%. Turkey imported 70% less Russian gas than a year earlier, the country is increasing the purchase of liquefied natural gas (LNG), since it turns out to be several times cheaper than Russian pipeline gas. The United States is the main supplier of LNG to Turkey. Their deliveries in March grew by more than 300% - believe me, no one will freeze.
  6. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 10 September 2020 17: 38
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    The weakness of the Polish proposal is that Germany is already receiving Norwegian gas. Directly. Through 3 pipelines. You can admire all the pipes from the North Sea here:

    https://investments.academic.ru/pictures/investments/img783235_4-1_Evropeyskaya_sistema_gazoprovodov.jpg

    The Poles will build a pipe, demand a quota at the expense of France and Germany, and SELL the gas taken away to Germany.
    Moreover, the Poles will not be able to issue 65 billion cubic meters.
  7. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 12 September 2020 10: 47
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    Well, the cherry on the cake:

    https://lt.sputniknews.ru/economy/20200909/13084032/V-Litvu-prishel-vtoroy-gruz-rossiyskogo-SPG-za-sentyabr.html

    Russophobia is Russophobia, and in anticipation of the nullification of EU subsidies, the economy overpowers Russophobia and breaks through the most stubborn.
    And people can do fine without Poland. Poles know too well.
    And there are enough LNG terminals in Europe without Poland.