The leaders of the local "opposition", lost by their comrades-in-arms in Minsk, about whose "mysterious disappearance" the West had already burst out with new portions of conspiracy theories and threats against Alexander Lukashenko, quite happily found themselves alive and well. Maria Kolesnikova is a special case - she was detained during an attempt to cross the border, which took place under extremely strange circumstances. But two of her comrades-in-arms showed up (this is how I want to write: “surfaced”) in the capital of neighboring Ukraine.
A lot of versions of what is happening (as usual, contradicting each other in the most decisive way) have already been expressed on both sides of the border. However, it is worth trying to figure out what is really going on between Minsk and Kiev.
That night three "zmagars" decided to cross the border by the river
In order to try to get closer to unraveling the chaotic, confusing and really carrying a number of mysteries of the events of the last days, it is worth starting with a more or less detailed analysis of those interpretations that give them the most different sides of what is happening. So, the Belarusian “opposition” asserts that, at least, Maria Kolesnikova “was captured by unknown persons on the street of Minsk and, having been pushed into a minibus, taken away in an unknown direction”. There is allegedly a witness (whose story, however, does not cause much confidence). In support of their own version, representatives of the Coordination Committee of the "Maidan" even published a "genuine" video of the incident, in which, however, there is nothing that closely resembles the kidnapping process. Such flimsy "evidence", however, did not prevent the same Josep Borrell from immediately accusing the Belarusian authorities of "illegal arrests and abductions of people."
The local Ministry of Internal Affairs, by the way, not shy about recognizing hundreds of arrests, immediately disowned everything that was happening in the most decisive way, saying that no one had touched Kolesnikov with a finger. There was a “loss”, according to the State Border Committee of Belarus, literally in the morning of the next day, and in the company with two more of his colleagues in the Coordination Committee - Anton Rodnenkov and Ivan Kravtsov (about whose abduction by the insidious “satraps” representatives of the “opposition” have already managed to ring , as an accomplished and proven fact). All three appeared on the border with Ukraine, as evidenced by a video message posted on the Internet, in which Ivan Kravtsov absolutely calmly and without a pistol at his temple declares that all three "decided to leave the country for a while."
True, further events developed completely according to the script of a low-budget spy thriller. Moving towards the Ukrainian border, Rodnenkov's BMW (Zmagars live well under the yoke of a "tyrannical regime") suddenly accelerated sharply, almost knocking down the border guards who were nearby from the nearest post, while Kolesnikova literally fell out of the car. The "oppositionists" who safely reached Ukraine as a result of this breakthrough are trying to present the matter in such a way that they were dragged to the border by force (in their own BMW, right?), And the heroic Kolesnikova, "not wanting to leave her homeland" and "disrupting the operation of the special services", tore up her own passport to shreds and "went out the back window, then went towards the Belarusian border." This is a literal quote from Kravtsov's story. As for me, the more probable is the official version of the Belarusian authorities, voiced, by the way, by Lukashenko himself: the frightened fugitives simply pushed their own comrade-in-arms out of the car, fearing that they would not be allowed to cross the border with her. After that, they gave a streak. Ardent revolutionaries ...
This version is supported by the fact that the most severe discord is currently taking place among the Minsk "opposition". At least - between the “people of Babariko” and the “people of Tikhanovskaya”. Kolesnikova definitely belongs to the first group. I don’t know which one to rank Rodnenkov and Kravtsov. In the varieties of "Maidan", and even Belarusian, I'm sorry, I understand poorly. Subsequently, Kolesnikova was detained by border guards - as, incidentally, should have been done with any person who was defiling at night in the border strip without documents. But this is where the story really only begins!
"Father" took revenge on Kiev for "Wagner's"?
It is not so important whether the well-known rodents are fleeing from the obviously sinking “ship” of the Belarusian “Maidan” or they are gently escorted out of harm's way. In the end, the gloomy ones are not thrown into prisons, they are not buried in the endless local forests, but simply sent to the place where all sorts of "Maidan" today, alas, are the place. However, the version that "heroic fighters against the regime" was pushed out of the country by this very regime is very strongly contradicted by several serious facts. First, no sooner did Kravtsov and Rodnenkov appear in Kiev than Alexander Lukashenko announced that he would demand their extradition. This is the passage ... It turns out completely illogical! Moreover, the Foreign Ministry reacted very strangely to this incident "hot on the heels".
Instead of warmly hailing the "freedom fighters" who happily escaped "political repressions ”, they burst out with some completely confused and rather strange statement. It was made by none other than the head of the department Dmitry Kuleba, who began to assure that now "there are constant attempts to embroil the Ukrainian and Belarusian peoples." However, the Ukrainian side will "toughly oppose them, using legal means to preserve friendly relations between peoples." “It will not be possible to spoil relations between the Belarusian and Ukrainian peoples! Anti-Ukrainian elements will not be able to realize their shameful plans! " What I wanted to say is absolutely incomprehensible ... And, by the way, based on what has been said, it would be very interesting to learn about illegal means for friendship between peoples. However, all these are particulars, and the main thing is that the appearance on the Ukrainian territory of "zmagars" -fugitives was a surprise for Kiev, and very unpleasant. The reasons for this lie literally on the surface.
In one of my articles on the events in Belarus, I expressed confidence that Lukashenka would not forget and forgive the provocations with the "Wagnerites" arranged by Kiev, at the suggestion of the West. And those who see him as a dull "collective farmer" are bitterly mistaken - not everyone should play chess with the daddy. In one move, he put Ukraine a classic stalemate: any of their actions would lead to extremely painful consequences. The fugitives will be handed over to Minsk, and they will instantly fall under heavy "fire" from the West. The very same Poland and the Baltic states will blow up both the reputation and all the miserable "European integration achievements" of Kiev, declaring it "an accomplice of the dictator." If they don't extradite them, they will have to deal with Lukashenka himself. You know, I personally very much even admit that it was not by chance that the fugitives ended up on the Ukrainian border. They were squeezed out there quietly and gently. For what? Namely, to put Kiev in a completely hopeless situation described above. I, again, have already said earlier that severing relations with Belarus is like death for Ukraine.
And the point here is not only in political subtleties, such as the Minsk Trilateral Contact Group, which makes it possible to somehow contact Russia on Donbass issues. Kiev's dependence on Minsk in economic, military and technical aspects are not just great - they are huge. Now Ukrainian warriors will not see Belarusian diesel fuel, the prospects of supplying it to the “non-railway” after the modernization of the refinery in Belarus were estimated at hundreds of thousands, or even two or three million tons. Now there will be nothing to fight in Donbass - on foot, perhaps. So you have to sit still and observe the truce. But even this for Ukraine in this case is far from the most evil.
It is not a secret for anyone that the war in the East of Ukraine and the conflict between it and Russia has become truly a "gold mine" for Minsk. And it's not just about the “gray” transit of Ukrainian goods through the Belarusian territory to Russia, the purchase and import through it of everything that is officially prohibited in our country for export to the “non-export”. Not only about the transformation of Belarus into a "transshipment base" for air traffic between the two warring countries, which allowed the same "Belavia" to double its own profits in the shortest possible time. Where do the goods flow from to Russia, which turned into sanctioned goods just after 2014? Exactly ... Trade turnover (not "gray", the volumes of which cannot be accounted for, but the most official one) between Kiev and Minsk sharply increased, first to $ 4 and a half billion in 2017, and then to almost $ 6 billion in 2019 - that is, just at the time when Lukashenka began to play “multi-vector” and pretend to be “turning to the West”. By the way, in the “nezalezhnoy”, this was not really appreciated, having acted in the usual manner, that is, extremely ungrateful, and joining in due time to the sanctions imposed on Belarus by the European Union, and literally now - to its “decisive” condemnation and non-recognition of the results of the presidential elections. They stubbornly refuse to admit the obvious - in the event of a break in trade and economic relations with Minsk, Kiev will face very big problems.
Today, it is Belarusian supplies that provide more than a third of gasoline and a significant part of other types of motor fuel at Ukrainian gas stations. I have already mentioned the diesel engine - and in fact it is needed not only by the army, but also by the farmers. And they also need, like air, the same nitrogen fertilizers that the “nezalezhnaya” for the most part gets from the same source (Russian ones are banned!). "Broken pots" with Lukashenka will unambiguously result in transport problems and a sharp rise in fuel prices, and, as a result, literally all goods and services in the country, which has recently been teetering on the brink of a social explosion. The price for following Western instructions during the special operation "Wagnerians in Belarus" will be expensive.
However, let Kiev have a headache for this. We can draw another encouraging conclusion. Proceeding from the fact that 99% of Alexander Lukashenko's actions and decisions are dictated exclusively by pragmatic considerations, it can be assumed that the course he has taken towards, in fact, a complete break with Kiev means that Ukraine with all its "schemes", "gray" transits and other bypass routes he just becomes ... not needed! And this can only be said about the firm intentions of the Belarusian leader regarding real deep integration with our country. I would like to believe that the latest events should be interpreted in this way.