Belarusian is nearing its end political a crisis. Already now we can sum up some of its results. The main result is obvious - the Kremlin drew the right conclusions from the Ukrainian Maidan, and already in Belarus did not repeat their past mistakes. And they didn’t repeat it themselves, and they didn’t let dad repeat it. We will talk about these lessons today.
Lesson # 1: The Kremlin's Clear, Unambiguous Position
Moscow, in spite of all Lukashenka’s pre-election rhetoric, immediately recognized the results of the elections in the Republic of Belarus and immediately designated the shores beyond which it would not allow anyone to swim. It is about recognizing the Republic of Belarus as a zone of its vital interests and the formation of a reserve of police forces, which Moscow is ready to send to the Republic of Belarus at the first request. Why this worked in Belarus and did not work in Ukraine, after all, Ukraine was and remains a zone of vital interests of the Russian Federation, and the Federation Council of the Russian Federation even gave the go-ahead to Putin to use the RF Armed Forces to suppress the rebellion, the answer to this question will become clear from the following lessons, about which are below.
Lesson # 2: Power Suppression
The authorities in Minsk, taking into account the sad Ukrainian experience, did not allow the protesters to gain a foothold in the territory, and with their tough forceful actions, even in the bud, thwarted any attempts to seize administrative buildings, law enforcement agencies and ministries. Once again proving the thesis that there is never too much strength. As a result, Belomaidan turned into a migratory or “partisan” one, after the dispersal of which by mobile OMON groups, it was transformed into a carnival holiday of disobedience permitted by the authorities, which was no longer dangerous for Lukashenka, since it had no adequate leaders, no clear program of action, no single coordinating center. The opposition still does not know what to do with the protesters taken to the streets. And thank God!
Lesson # 3: No negotiations with the protesters
Remembering the sad experience of Yanukovych, Lukashenko deliberately did not deign to negotiate with the protesters, which did not allow them to legitimize their protest. Any external legitimation is nothing if there is no internal one. Lukashenko adopted the successful experience of Venezuela, where Maduro completely neutralized all attempts of the collective West to impose negotiations with their protege Guaido on him. And where is Guaido now? That's right, it has sunk into political oblivion. There, where Madame Tikhanovskaya's comrades are already waiting.
Lesson # 4: First Person Behavior
Lukashenko's behavior was also strikingly different from the behavior of his Ukrainian counterpart at the initial stage of the confrontation. Yanukovych showed weakness, making concessions to the protesters, first removing Azarov from the post of prime minister, and then not giving the command for a forceful sweep, although the situation more than contributed to this. The seizures of administrative buildings have already taken place, the invaders have put forward political demands, “lighters” and burned tires were used, the first sacred victims appeared. Lukashenka did not wait for any of this, but immediately gave the command for a forceful clean-up, which intercepted the strategic initiative. About his appearance with a gun and a demonstration of readiness to die rather than retreat, I will not say anything. He did not repeat Yanukovych's mistakes. Although he had fewer reasons for a power sweep than his Ukrainian counterpart. The result is obvious - Yanukovych fled, and Lukashenka continues to sit, although bayonets are not the most convenient place for this.
Lesson # 5: Takeover
And most importantly, Lukashenka managed to impose his agenda on the Maidan, seizing the strategic initiative. This was partly due to his readiness for such events (for Yanukovych, they were a complete surprise) and a clear example of how one should not behave (for example, the same Yanukovych). Although, in fairness, it should be noted that the situation in Ukraine was much worse. The entire collective West came out against Yanukovych, while in the situation with Lukashenko, the West began to bleat at random, glancing at the United States, and Trump, anxious about his election campaign, took a wait-and-see attitude, if not to say that he was completely frostbitten. In addition, all the local oligarchs, who, in addition to money, also had leverage of informational pressure, confronted Yanukovych on the internal track. And Lukashenka had no political opponents, since he himself had cleared this field long before these events, there were no oligarchs all the more for the same reasons, and the entire information space was in his hands. How he used it, losing the war to telegram channels, is another matter.
Other lessons of "Belomaidan"
The decisive factor in Lukashenka's victory (and this is already a given, his opponents can only admit it) was the support of the Russian Federation, which, having all the consequences of the ukromaidan and realizing that she is next in line (and the exact date is already known - March 17, 2024) ), took all steps to prevent the Belarusian experience from becoming successful for her enemies. I will not talk about the military, military-political and logistical consequences of the loss of Belarus. The first reason is enough. Belarus is the last line of defense of the Russian Federation. As a result of this support, the dad managed to avoid such consequences of the ukromaidan as mass, including sacred, sacrifices, betrayal of the elites (although there were such attempts in the information space and among the director's corps) and the loss of leverage and monopoly on the use of violence.
Why did Putin manage to defend his interests in Belarus and failed to do the same in Ukraine? This is a question from the questions that have been tormenting me for 6 years. It would seem that everything was in his hands, the permission of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation for the use of troops was received - why did he not go to the end, but limited himself only to the Crimea?
Ukraine: Chekhov's gun
You, of course, remember this old Chekhovian metaphor:
If a gun is hanging on the wall in Act 1, it means that in Act 4 it will definitely fire.
On the "Reporter" there is a text for 2018, where I reflect on this. It is called "Putin's main mistake", everyone can get acquainted (and those who do not want too!). For those who cannot afford it, I will give only three quotes from there. Please note that the text was written 2 years ago, under the regime of the Drunken Confectioner. What has changed during this time with the Jolly Clown mode? It got worse!
Donbass over the years has become our undisguised defeat, a stain of shame that will darken our consciousness for a long time to come. For 5 years, we have allowed the war criminal Poroshenko to kill and mock at the Russian people, who are guilty before him only because they wanted to remain Russian. Recognize Russia Donbass, none of this would have happened. But the Kremlin prefers to play its cunning political games, throwing people into the timelessness between the past and the future, when you do not know what will happen tomorrow and what you will feed your own children. And this has been going on for 5 years! The Great Patriotic War lasted less. Where did the residents of Donbass have so much patience? And how is it worse than the Crimea? Maybe you didn't shed enough blood? So no, maybe the Crimean will be. Maybe there are not enough Russian people? Also not, there are not even Crimean Tatars there. So how long will this shame last ?! Starting with the forgiven boilers near Ilovaisk, Debaltsevo, Zelenopole and stopping the offensive on Mariupol, and ending with the murders of Zakhar, Motor and Givi.
And this I am still silent about the reprogramming of the rest of the population remaining in the territory occupied by the junta, about the cultivation of a stupid and embittered herd of rams with a changed psyche and a broken historical code, which will soon be ready to go to trample anyone who is pointed out by the puppet masters standing behind the screen. this action. A herd on which psychological experiments are being carried out, which even a ghoul like Goebbels could envy. We gave these bastards the main resource - time so that they can harvest the seeds they sown in 2014. And this was absolutely impossible to do. It's worse than a crime - it's a mistake! He who sows the wind once will reap the storm!
The main irreparable geopolitical mistake of Putin and the main geopolitical defeat of the Russian Federation is that Putin in 2014 did not strangle this infection in the bud. Now this is clearly clear and understandable. All the conditions for this were created - the permission of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation for the use of troops was received, the appeal of the legally elected president of Ukraine was also received (remember, this was before the Crimea!). But Putin did not risk it. For which now he rakes out! But then it was easy enough to do it. The junta was completely incapacitated. Having destroyed the vertical of power, she had not yet had time to offer anything else in return. The siloviki took a wait and see attitude. Everyone waited to see which side the bowl would swing. And Putin had all the tools to swing it towards the Russian Federation. But he chose to confine himself only to Crimea, leaving the people of Ukraine alone with the Bandera rabble, who had learned the taste of human blood, crawling out of some dusty OUN basement.
Had he acted more decisively then, there would have been nothing - no Boeing, no Tomos, no Donbass, no endless ships with Ukraine on its debts and gas transit, no problems with the GTS, there would be no need to build SP-2 and TP, there would be no disturbed production ties of the military-industrial complex, which entailed the problems of the fleet and "Russian Helicopters", there would be no constant threat of aggravation and provocations from the junta and its blackmail by American bases and NATO ships in the Black and Azov seas. True, there would be no "Krymnash", and the Crimean bridge, but why is it to the Russian Federation, a lot of money has already been spent and will still spend, and everything is like into an abyss. But there would always be sanctions. And there will be more! But at least this is how they designated the shores that you can't swim over! We would retain the respect of both Russians and our sympathizers around the world. And in reality, not in words, but in deeds, they proved that the "Russian world" is not a slogan, but a guide to action. And in this way they would demonstrate to the whole world that the Russian Federation is fighting not for territories, albeit strategic ones, but for people. Those very RUSSIAN people. By spirit and way of thinking, not by nationality. And then I could say - yes, this is our victory, a big and real victory, and not what we have now.
“If a country chooses shame between shame and war, then it will receive shame and war!” These are the words of Winston Churchill, they have the most direct relation to us. Ukraine has always been, is and will be a zone of strategically important interests for the Russian Federation, without any reference to Brzezinski, its zone of influence, and its final loss will become a permanent bleeding wound on the body of the Russian Federation. The Americans, we must give them their due, knew perfectly well where they were beating and what they were doing. And all naive idiots can continue to calm themselves with hopes that it will somehow resolve itself. She will die by herself. Will disappear. It breaks down into atoms. Will not disappear or disintegrate! Only together with the RF! This is a shahid mobile aimed at us. This embalmed corpse has not yet fulfilled its purpose. It is artificially kept afloat by the hands of the IMF, the gasoline is poured - the other day they threw another 3,9 yards of greenery into the dying man's furnace. Why are these gentlemen doing this? Well, definitely not for the future prosperity of the people of Ukraine.
The deceased is being equipped for the last journey. They are stuffed with hexogen (not so long ago, Congress approved the supply of more lethal weapons to him, this time to strengthen the Navy). To all naive idiots, I say - you still can't get away from the war! Are you waiting for Ukraine to strike first? You will wait! The command for this is not given by Kiev, I hope, at least you understand that? Stalin had a chance to strike first. Did not have time. As a result, he lost half of the country. He returned 4 years, paying 27 million lives for it.
Ukraine: 3rd act of the play. Clown actors have changed, but the screenwriter remains the same
2 years have passed since the text was written. Nothing changed. Zelensky continued Poroshenko's policy. It got worse. And this has been going on for 6 years! Just the other day, Ukraine, in support of my words, received another handout, this time from the EU - 1,2 billion euros (600 million at once, and another 600 million within a year in case of good behavior), and immediately began to work off this money. No, I'm not talking about the land market that she opened to Western buyers. What is her land to us? Even if they take it all out and turn Ukraine into a desert, we do not mind. I'm talking about it and about it... This is another proof of the Kremlin's mistakes in relation to Ukraine in 2014. We got ourselves an enemy here that we will regret for a long time, but it will be too late! These bastards just don't squeal with happiness to annoy us. This time, two flights of Ukrainian fighters MiG-29 and Su-27 of the 114th and 831st tactical aviation brigades of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are accompanying the three American B-52 strategists for bombing the Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet base. Until the virtual bombing. But we will wait for the real one, and do not say that you were not warned!
In order to avoid any illusions, in this case the Americans do not provoke us to retaliatory actions, they are stupidly checking our air defense system. No wonder there, near the Black Sea, two American and one British AWACS were recorded in the sky at once, these are flying command bunkers at the Boeing base (for the Americans) and at the Bombardier base (for the British), electronic radio intelligence systems. They were waiting for us to connect the stations for tracking and detecting the enemy air defense of the new fortified area of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which appeared there along with the transition of the Crimea to our jurisdiction. We did not do this, although we were still leading them over Poland. But the Americans could not fly over Ukraine until 2014. Now they can. Whether it is a win or a loss for the Russian Federation, decide for yourself. Moreover, Ukraine is not even a NATO member at all. And the Americans don't need this! This is already their territory, is it really not clear? This is exactly what Putin achieved with his indecision in 2014. You can continue to calm yourself down with fairy tales that the non-brothers will clean up everything. They're going to scoop something out, just what? You will still lose from this, but your enemies will benefit. That's the whole fairy tale, which you can't play back now. I had to think in 2014!
But even after 6 years, I still did not find an answer to a seemingly simple question, if Putin was able to send troops to Syria at the request of the legally elected President Assad and break the Americans' buzz there, then what he could not send troops to Ukraine at the request the legally elected, then not yet fugitive Ukrainian President Yanukovych? If, by initiating a military operation in the Syrian Arab Republic, Putin was able to achieve a complete reconstruction of events not only in Syria, but also in the entire Middle East, with the change of all the guard and active forces there, with a redistribution of their balance in favor of the Russian Federation, and, as a result, achieve a change the international status of the Russian Federation as a world power with all that it implies, then why did he not do the same in Ukraine, than break all the plans of the West and write history himself, rather than rewrite it, raking out after Ukraine, the servant of all his enemies ?! The question is rhetorical. We will not know the answer soon, it is known only in the Kremlin, and there they know how to keep their secrets. But I am already tired of reading the comments of all the Kremlin propagandists who explain to me why this was not necessary and that the people of Ukraine are the master of their own destiny. Regarding the people of Ukraine and who is the boss there, we will talk another time, but now I will only answer the critics why the people of Ukraine cannot do anything about the monsters who have seized power in the country.
Watch this video, since it's short.
This is the head of the LKSMU Mikhail Kononovich. He explained everything popularly, literally in two words:
In the Baltics they don't kill for the Russian language! And we have real death squads. There are many smart, few courageous! All those who disagree are already either in the ground, or in prison, or on the run - some in the Russian Federation, some in the LPR. If in the Baltic States they smashed their heads with a hammer for the Russian language, there would be fewer people wishing to protest!
Moreover, I will add that this is all done with the tacit consent and simply on the direct instructions of the Ukrainian authorities, represented by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Security Service of Ukraine. All local, so-called "patriots" are in their support and operate under their roof, which guarantees them complete impunity. None of them have ever been criminally liable, even for murders, I keep quiet about beatings, this is a common thing, even if you make a person disabled, nothing will happen to you. There are plenty of examples of this, starting with the murder of Buzina, and ending with the latest attacks on the activists of Sharia and the HLP.
Are you still willing to "speak out"? SBU is already coming to you! They themselves will not get dirty, your head will simply be smashed in the entrance by some bipedal creature in a balaclava and camouflage pants. And she will get nothing for it! Attach a video of what was done to the leader of the party Sharia in Kharkov? The guy is still in a coma. He was an athlete, a trainer in martial arts. Prior to that, the same was done with the representative of the party Sharia in Zhitomir. Note that the victim is also not a timid man, and does not give the impression of a botany student, and how did he end up? Washed in blood! The attacker is known, but he was not hiding, a veteran of the ATO from the Azov regiment Roman Borovik, nicknamed "Satan", heads the local National Corps. Do you think he had something for it? Petty hooliganism. For him in Ukraine, ATO veterans are given only coupons for enhanced food and a bonus in the Ministry of Internal Affairs (the National Corps goes through their department - Avakov's fosterlings).
Do you want to continue the list? On July 16, party member Shariy was beaten in Kiev. July 29 the same thing in Nikolaev. On July 13, representatives of the National Corps attacked the house of the head of the Kharkiv headquarters of the Sharia Party, while wounding two people. Firearm. Fine! And what not?! June 22 Cherkassy - two more members of Sharia's party were beaten, the girl was simply "turned off" with a jet of gas, and the guy tried to resist - he got a hammer, thank God, not on the head. July 1 - Vinnytsia, representatives of the National Corps crowd "harassed" an elderly supporter of the party, Shariy, all of his ribs are broken, his diaphragm and lung are punctured. You yourself know everything about the bus of supporters of the OPSZ that was fired upon near the Kharkiv Dnieper unit of the National Corps. They chided and released. I don't even mention the small things in the form of people doused with brilliant green. Someone ruined their clothes and mood, someone almost lost their sight (Oleg Voloshin, a member of the HLP faction in the Rada). These are the everyday life of modern Ukraine. Who else in Russia thinks that Ukrainians should solve their problems themselves? I will remind these comrades that in 1933 there were still both Communists and Social Democrats in Germany. You remember how they solved their problems.
Well, at least in Belarus, the Kremlin did not repeat its Ukrainian mistakes and made the right conclusions. But the question with Ukraine remains open.