Russia may become the owner of two empty gas pipelines in the Black Sea

Today Turkey is one of the most problematic destinations for Russian gas exports. Until recently, Ankara was the second largest buyer after Berlin, now Gazprom has sharply surrendered its positions, yielding them to other suppliers. In the next six years, the terms of the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream contracts will expire, but will new ones be signed and under what conditions?

Turkey became the second largest export market for Russian gas in 2007, and in 2013 Alexey Miller boasted that it could be number one at all. At that time, Ankara was critically dependent on gas imports, and Gazprom accounted for a very impressive 60%. The Blue Stream gas pipeline was already in operation, and after the crisis in Ukraine in 2014 and "sabotage" by Bulgaria, two lines of the Turkish Stream, which cost the budget $ 7 billion, began to be pulled bypassing these two countries. But then everything did not go as planned by the management of the state corporation.

At first, the incident with the Russian Su-24 bomber shot down by the Turks played a negative role. Ankara got off with "tomatoes", but made far-reaching conclusions. Additional gas supplies from Azerbaijan were established, in addition, pipeline gas also comes from Iran.

SecondlyTurkey has accelerated the commissioning of two floating LNG terminals (FSRUs) with a capacity of 20 million cubic meters per day in the provinces of Izmir and Hatay. This played a major role when world LNG prices plummeted. For comparison, in the first quarter of 2020, Gazprom's products cost the Turks $ 257 per 1 cubic meters, LNG - $ 98,2 for the same volume. The Turks are already capable of receiving up to 24 billion cubic meters per year in the form of LNG and intend to build new terminals.

Finally, it has become very unprofitable for Ankara to buy Russian gas in the previous volumes for foreign currency due to the devaluation of the Turkish lira by 30%. The next year the contract for deliveries via the Turkish Stream expires, and in 2026 - the Blue Stream. Considering that President Erdogan recently reported on the discovery of his own gas fields, estimated at 320 billion cubic meters, Gazprom's prospects are awful. In the most negative scenario, Russia could become the owner of two empty pipelines running along the bottom of the Black Sea.

However, there are also slightly more optimistic estimates. Economists point out that the abnormally low price of LNG cannot last forever. For example, for Qatar, LNG production is largely a by-product of shale oil development. When its quotes fell due to the six-week "oil war" between Russia and Saudi Arabia, Riyadh was forced to dump its surplus on the world market, which plummeted the price of LNG. Those who invested in the construction of receiving terminals on time have made good progress. But now the situation is gradually changing: the market is steadily digesting surplus gas, the winter heating season is approaching, so the price of LNG is going up noticeably.

Most likely, Ankara will not completely refuse to import Russian gas. It will continue to diversify supplies through the construction of LNG terminals and the development of its own fields. This will be a serious trump card in negotiations with Gazprom, which will have to make very serious price concessions. Ultimately, the domestic monopolist will lose most of the market, but will be allowed to remain as a backup supplier with two pipelines for Turkey.
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  1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 5 September 2020 11: 41
    There is no way to please the Russians - 40 million American unemployed. smile
  2. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 5 September 2020 11: 49
    Here I am about the same yes How much saliva can you sprinkle on Miller? Everyone is already tired of these libels. They would tell at least once for a change how the overseas competitors are doing in the gas field.
    Or was there no order for this? wink
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 5 September 2020 12: 55
      Quote: 123
      for a change, as overseas competitors are doing in the gas field.

      They don't have Miller and Gazprom to run a pipeline from Texas to Maryland. And the gas goes to the Gulf of Mexico, it liquefies, the gas carrier is taken to Trinidad and Tobago, UNLOADED, pumped over again, and then the gas carrier goes to Maryland.
      For, according to American laws, ships flying an American flag, with an American crew, on ships made at American shipyards should go between the ports of the United States. And here the flag is Mongolian, the crew is Filipino, the tanker is South Korean. Gas is also Trinidad-Tobagsky. Checkmate, you, Miller!
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 5 September 2020 12: 58
        good So I would like to cover events with details, otherwise the author is fixated on Gazprom, not otherwise, children's psychological trauma.
  3. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 5 September 2020 12: 01
    If Turkey does not fulfill its contractual obligations, they will forget what Russian tourists look like and will eat their tomatoes (as well as oranges, etc.) themselves.
    Turkey does nothing that the Russian Federation could not buy somewhere else.
    Better tell us how things are going on in the US with regard to oil and gas, how the Saudis are preparing to eat sand.
    1. Ibuprofen Offline Ibuprofen
      Ibuprofen (Novel) 7 September 2020 18: 29
      Quote: boriz
      they will forget what Russian tourists look like

      Yes of course. Everyone will receive Mishustin's cashback and travel to Sochi for triple the price.
  4. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 5 September 2020 13: 05
    This means that in response to cut off the oxygen of Turkey, so that Antalya becomes what it was before the arrival of tourists from the Russian Federation - a poor fishing village on the seashore. The Russian Federation will also manage without plastic Turkish tomatoes.
  5. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 5 September 2020 16: 22
    And you can also offer Turkey a joint Turkish-Russian patrol "in the Black Sea over the places where these Russian gas pipelines pass in order to ensure their integrity and safety ...
  6. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 5 September 2020 22: 24
    2 empty pipelines are still better than none.
    For example, like Honduras ...

    You can also get prizes for empty ones ...
  7. Citizen Mѣshkov (Sergѣi) 6 September 2020 03: 25
    It's time to start making plans for the possession of the Black Sea.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 6 September 2020 11: 18
      It's not time to look for how to support your trousers during the impending global crisis, not to fat, to be alive is a question ... payments, - it looks like they are preparing to scrape ...
      1. Citizen Mѣshkov (Sergѣi) 6 September 2020 19: 48
        Where should they go? The ball is small ...
        1. Ibuprofen Offline Ibuprofen
          Ibuprofen (Novel) 7 September 2020 18: 27
          There are few of them, there is a place.