Biznes Alert: Following Turkey, Gazprom will lose Poland too

4 September 2020

The Russian gas corporation Gazprom is gradually losing the Turkish market. The volume of gas supplies from Russia to Turkey this year may fall to the level of the nineties of the last century. The barely completed Turkish Stream may remain half empty. But supplies of Russian gas may sharply decrease not only to Turkey, but also to Poland. The Polish portal Biznes Alert writes about this.

At the end of 2019, Gazprom completed the construction of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline with a capacity of 31,5 billion cubic meters. annually worth 7 billion euros. However, since 2015, there has been a downward trend in Russian gas imports to Turkey.

In 2019, the volume of purchases of Russian "blue fuel" by the Turks amounted to 43,4 billion cubic meters, which is less than in 2013. Gas relations between Russia and Turkey were hampered by a dispute over the shooting down of a Russian fighter jet by the Turks in Syria. Then Ankara decided that it wants to reduce its dependence on gas from the Russian Federation.

Turkey has built two LNG terminals and increased gas imports from Azerbaijan. The Turkish authorities liberalized the gas market by transferring long-term BOTAS contracts to private companies, for which contracts with Gazprom were more expensive than those available on the free market. Gazprom had to give these companies a discount, reducing the profitability of its supplies to Turkey.

Gas price is the biggest problem for Gazprom in the Turkish Republic. The Russian Federation offered BOTAS gas at $ 257 per 1000 cubic meters in the first quarter of 2020 and at $ 228 in the second. In the second quarter of this year, spot gas prices in Europe were below $ 100. Turkey could import liquefied fuel at an average price of $ 63 per 1000 cubic meters in the second quarter. Thus, LNG has largely replaced Russian gas. Turks can reduce purchases in Russia by 8-10 billion cubic meters annually.

From the point of view of the Russians, the situation may be aggravated by the discovery of gas fields in the Black Sea, estimated at 320 billion cubic meters per year, which will give Turkey 5-8 billion cubic meters. fuel annually.

A similar process may take place on the Polish market, where in 2022 the contract for the transportation of gas from Yamal expires. After a possible diversification of supplies through the LNG terminal in Swinoujscie and the construction of the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline, as well as the commissioning of a floating regasification plant in the Gulf of Gdansk, the Polish gas market will be liberalized. Poles, like Turks, will have access to fuel from different directions and the possibility of spot purchases. Thus, following Turkey, Gazprom may also lose Poland.

Used photos: www.pererabotka.gazprom.ru

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Offline Dear sofa expert.

Dear sofa expert. 4 September 2020 11: 30

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Well, well, if you look at all this in the long term. It's time to move away from the raw materials economy.

It is necessary to reduce as much as possible, and gradually stop completely, the export of gas, and let it go for the internal needs of the country.

To convert excess gas from raw material into a product: for example, to generate electricity, and use it to produce hydrogen, or to sell surplus of this electricity abroad.

This hydrogen can also be sold through the constructed pipelines.
1. Offline Rashid116
  
  Rashid116 (Rashid) 5 September 2020 19: 39
  
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  Well, what is 7 killed yards, so a penny))) You are our Alligator))).
  1. Offline Dear sofa expert.
    
    Dear sofa expert. 5 September 2020 20: 00
    
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    Well, what is 7 killed yards, so pennies))) You are our Alligator)))
    
    No, of course, it's not a penny. The current situation, on the one hand, does not provide any other opportunity, and on the other hand, it offers a real chance for Russia to radically change everything.
    In the same way, as happened with import substitution. They pressed, tensed, and everything began to work out.
    In addition, the pipeline itself, in the future, can be used to transport a more cost-effective product - for example, hydrogen. Or do you have a more interesting idea? Speak, we will appreciate.)
    1. Offline Rashid116
      
      Rashid116 (Rashid) 5 September 2020 20: 20
      
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      Yes, there are no ideas, so little thoughts. Gazprom is not me and you (although, perhaps, you also move that kind of money). But, in my philistine opinion, before deciding to drive in such a sum, analysts of the highest category had to work there. What's the obsession with these pipelines? What a mania to throw money left and right. Any fines are incomprehensible, it is not clear for what? I advised everyone to look at the current composition of shareholders, and their share (if you don't know, you will be unpleasantly surprised). It reminds me of the 90s. Then also incomprehensible little people became shareholders of profitable enterprises, even competitors, like, we are in the subject, now we will set up your business, we will live. As a result, according to the same scheme, funds were withdrawn back and forth for obscure, muddy projects. And voila - profitable production went bankrupt, to the delight of competitors. You must remember all this if you find it.
      1. Offline Rashid116
        
        Rashid116 (Rashid) 5 September 2020 20: 22
        
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        The composition of Gazprom's shareholders, of course. Well, the one that is "national treasure"))).
      2. Offline Dear sofa expert.
        
        Dear sofa expert. 5 September 2020 20: 32
        
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        You must remember all this if you find it.
        
        Yes, I remember all this, but I am in no hurry to draw parallels.
        Naturally, I don’t use “such money”, but I don’t really follow the “shareholders” either. So to speak, as unnecessary. To be honest, it doesn't matter to me.
        It is important what is then below the line.
        And below the line is: Paid debt of Russia (at what - for himself, and for that guy). The standard of living of Russians has increased 5 times (at first it increased 10 times, then decreased by two daza - mathematics) (in comparison with the 90s).
        The modernized and, finally, rising from its knees, the army of Russia.
        By the way, your (and mine too!) Opportunity now to delve into the "intricacies" of big business, and not stand in the market selling tomatoes, or run a bandit with "baking" along the arrows, also speaks of your (and my) increased standard of living .)
        
        Offline Rashid116
        
        Rashid116 (Rashid) 5 September 2020 20: 54
        
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        I was always at work and independent, I do not need handouts, I will take what I need myself. I won't ask anyone. In the 90s there was a shop, the roof turned up, it was a pity for me to pay. I fought as best I could, when I realized that I would not survive, I burned him nafig. I left to poach, the funniest thing is when people had nothing to eat, I had a full refrigerator of sterlet and black caviar))). We couldn't eat it anymore. And you can't sell cheaply - we risked. So I changed it for chicken and potatoes))). What tomatoes)))? Even small hucksters paid, this is not for me. I believe that we are all ordinary people, we wasted time and wasted resources. With that kind of money (at that oil price), much more could have been done for the country. And in the end they made billionaires and the rest. And you're sure the 90s won't come back. Oil fell in price - and where did those economic geniuses go? Cut projects. If you are in business, then you know how tax fierce is now. I worked in white for 8 years, the last six months it has been impossible. Everything, I will liquidate my LLC. I do not steal from old people and children, that is, I do not take part in tenders (if not in the know, there are kickbacks). So, I will not handle the current robbery.
        
        Offline Rashid116
        
        Rashid116 (Rashid) 5 September 2020 21: 07
        
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        By the way, my topic is a crisis, and it is growing. But I foresee difficult times, so my money will be useful to me myself))).
Offline King3214

King3214 (Sergius) 4 September 2020 11: 38

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Reading the Polish press voluntarily is either just "for the sake of neighing", or it is a manifestation of a severe mental disorder.
It makes no sense, but there is 100% Russophobia.
Offline 123

123 (123) 4 September 2020 12: 25

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Pans jump out of their pants, drawing attention to themselves. - You will soon completely lose us, we are already leaving, now we have almost left, you will feel bad without us.
Well, blame it on your health, a tailwind in the humpbacked back. The Sumerians have already gone ... in Europe, gas is bought by string bags.
1. Offline Sergey Tokarev
  
  Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 4 September 2020 12: 55
  
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  Let the Sumerians even buy plywood coffins in China from Russian sawdust. Do not feel sorry for ... the Sumerians.
Offline Sergey Latyshev

Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 4 September 2020 14: 16

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Or is Biznes Alert lying, or are the others lying?

Shouted for 3 years that LNG is much more expensive than gas through pipes.
And here it is 3 times cheaper?
And they wrote that both Poland and Turkey stored Russian gas in record amounts during the crisis?

Then what is the loss?

Or experts, officials, and observers regularly monitored on the site lied, lied and lied !!! - if Biznes Alert writes the truth.
1. Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
  
  Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 4 September 2020 15: 05
  
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  Quote: Sergey Latyshev
  Shouted for 3 years that LNG is much more expensive than gas through pipes.
  And here it is 3 times cheaper?
  
  Don't confuse cost of production with market value.
  At the well, pipe gas costs $ 3 per 1000 cubic meters, and on the western border of Russia - already $ 50.
  At the entrance to the LNG plant, gas costs $ 12 per kilocube, and at the exit - about $ 60. In Europe, one and the other cost about XNUMX.
  1. Offline Sergey Latyshev
    
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 4 September 2020 16: 48
    
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    Wah, thanks, I don’t confuse.
    Everyone wrote about the final cost.
    Or lied about her.
    
    Logistics just won't be considered. Or do you think all these "experts" and reviewers are idiots?
    And Belarusians, Germans and Turks with the Chinese at the same time ...
    1. Offline Dear sofa expert.
      
      Dear sofa expert. 5 September 2020 20: 14
      
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      Everyone wrote about the final cost. Or lied about her.
      
      Demand dictates supply.
      Demand is low today. Therefore, prices fell.
      LNG - nowhere to unload .. all storage facilities, due to today's low demand, remained full. Hence the junk (today's) LNG prices. The cost of a laden tanker downtime can quickly exceed the cost of the cargo itself. Hence the convulsive attempts to get rid of this burden.
      
      Such a reality today.
      
      There will be another tomorrow. Demand will increase, prices will return to profitability.
      
      Do not forget to like for the educational program provided to you.) (Joke)
      1. Offline Sergey Latyshev
        
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 5 September 2020 22: 31
        
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        All this applies equally to pipe gas.
        So enjoy yourself. Start boldly, quickly become famous ...
        
        Don't care for you.
        
        IMHO, some imagine the gas supply as a grandfather carrying potatoes to the market:
        loaded gas into a tanker and at random to America rushing, without any contracts, maybe someone will buy it on the cheap ...
        
        This is not the first time I have met this.
        
        Offline Dear sofa expert.
        
        Dear sofa expert. 5 September 2020 23: 14
        
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        IMHO, some imagine the supply of gas, like a grandfather carrying potatoes to the market:
        
        If you sometimes turn on your brain, you might even guess that the tanker is loaded directly after the gas has been liquefied, because storing gas after it is liquefied is a very costly undertaking.
        
        And then this tanker carries it to the one who bought it, like a sack of potatoes, on the commodity exchange. And just there, this very demand dictates supply.
        
        loaded gas into a tanker and at random to America rushing
        
        A little clarification: more often not "in", but "from" America.
        
        without any contracts, maybe someone will buy on the cheap ...
        
        And this also happens if, for some reason, the country that ordered the gas could not accept it. The so-called self-help sales procedure.
        
        Have you ever met this?
        
        Offline Sergey Latyshev
        
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 6 September 2020 00: 01
        
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        Yes, if you turn on your brain, you will understand everything.
        Gas is pumped into the pipe in the same way. There is a contract - they upload, no - they don't upload.
        
        "A little clarification" - and here on the site they were so worried about the tankers sailing to America, so worried ... there were already several articles.
        
        And the last thing - everything happens. Force majeure is called.
        Incl. breakthroughs in pipes, theft in pumping, and even chemistry in pipes in Belarus. What to remember.
        In general, we are finishing. Let the Poles worry why LNG is 3 times cheaper than pipe.
        We have a little bit, Gazprom paid itself a premium and raised gas prices ...
        
        Offline Dear sofa expert.
        
        Dear sofa expert. 6 September 2020 00: 25
        
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        "A little clarification" - and here on the site they were so worried about the tankers sailing to America, so worried ... there were already several articles.
        
        Well, there is. An American sometimes has to buy liquefied gas from other countries (mainly from Russia). The reason for that is their stupid antiquated Jones Law. But this does not prevent the Americans from being the main exporter of LNG (LNG) in the world.
        
        Gas is pumped into the pipe in the same way. There is a contract - they upload, no - they don't upload.
        
        The pipe itself is usually part of the contract.
        And the LPG tanker is a "bag of potatoes".
        
        Offline Sergey Latyshev
        
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 6 September 2020 14: 32
        
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        2 times no.
        The site was very worried about the mass of Saudi tankers carrying oil and gas from Arabia.
        He bragged about ours before the virus, but there is an obvious single small thing ...
        
        Under the articles on pipes and contracts in Poland - no.
        Contracts and supplies are not tied to the pipe in any way. Maybe only right after construction, they say, come on, come on, come on, everything has already been paid for ...
        And under the articles about Turkey - the same thing.
        We are finishing, otherwise ... they will start ...
        
        Offline Dear sofa expert.
        
        Dear sofa expert. 6 September 2020 14: 43
        
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        Contracts and supplies are not tied to the pipe in any way.
        
        They are also tied, if these are international deliveries.
        After all, pipes are laid both in transit countries and in countries - end consumers. And all these countries are participating in a common project. And the project is legally sealed by contracts. Otherwise, it would have been possible to simply sell gas at the border to consumers who came there with their "buckets")
        
        Offline Sergey Latyshev
        
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 6 September 2020 14: 49
        
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        You really do not be lame at all. Naturally, gas is not sold in buckets.
        But in Poland, Gazprom calmly made breaks between deliveries.
        At the beginning of August, there were 5 articles here, everyone whipped up drama, someone ...
        
        Offline Dear sofa expert.
        
        Dear sofa expert. 6 September 2020 15: 00
        
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        But in Poland, Gazprom calmly made breaks between deliveries.
        
        Well, why don't you indicate the reason for the breaks?)
        
        Offline Sergey Latyshev
        
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 6 September 2020 19: 20
        
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        So read the articles.
        It seems that the volumes and the time of gas transmission are reserved there in advance, and the time of gas transmission, up to a day.
        
        Offline Dear sofa expert.
        
        Dear sofa expert. 6 September 2020 20: 58
        
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        So read the articles.
        
        Yes, I just know that. You are just driving waves in the glass with your purposeful disinformation. It's disgusting to read.
        
        Offline Sergey Latyshev
        
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 6 September 2020 21: 54
        
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        Changed to the individual, then I'm right.

Offline

Hayer31 (Kashchei) 4 September 2020 14: 48

Russia is a country of raw materials, it is necessary to change the economic policy, but the leadership will not do this. Gopniks can only count money and send to the West.

Offline Oyo Sarkazmi

Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 4 September 2020 15: 06

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Quote: Hayer31
Russia is a country of raw materials

The USA is a paper-cutting country, and only dreams of becoming a gas station in Europe and China.
1. The comment was deleted.
  1. Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
    
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 5 September 2020 08: 18
    
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    Of course, I’ll put it off too.
    What is sarcasm good for? Does not require payment in dollars.

_AMUHb_ (_AMUHb_) 4 September 2020 15: 26

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Quote: Hayer31

It is bitingly and harshly said, but truthfully, alas and ah ... a little unsaid and undeveloped, however, one can conjecture himself to the extent of his "depravity", however ... faith, hope and love have not been canceled, and everything has the property end up "who knows what's best for you."

Offline Hayer31

Hayer31 (Kashchei) 4 September 2020 23: 51

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Many countries are raw materials, but only Russia has the potential to change the economic model. Others want to but cannot.

KNF (KNF) 5 September 2020 00: 04

The Turks have no gas in the Black Sea. This is Erdogan's nonsense.