Belarusian is nearing its end political a crisis. Some intermediate results can already be summed up. Putin again justified the worst expectations of his enemies, showing himself to be a mature master of political aikido, who himself does not hit first, but masterfully uses all the mistakes of the enemy. No wonder he was nicknamed the master of asymmetric responses, for which he uses, according to the canons of aikido, the inertia of the enemy, turning it to his own good. Putin has truly become a nightmare for his political opponents, proving to them every time that all his subsequent proposals are worse than the previous ones, it is better to agree immediately. This time, dad realized it on his own skin.
For some reason Lukashenko did not take into account the sad experience of the 44th President of America, who promised to break the economy RF to shreds, and as a result tore his pants below the waist in Ukraine, which as a result lost Crimea and Donbass, and in Syria. Now Obama, sitting in retirement, recalls with horror the hour when he sat down at the wheel of his vacuum cleaner and decided to compete in deceit with the Genius of Villainy. He did not succeed with the Turkish military coup, after which he also lost his ally there. It is not a fact that the Russian Federation acquired one, Turkey is a very unreliable partner, but the sultan still recalls the downed Russian bomber and the killed Russian ambassador to Ankara. Erdogan did not get off with tomatoes then, but I would not exaggerate our winnings either - Turkey will try to betray us more than once. Having friends like her doesn't need enemies.
However, mother history teaches us only that it teaches nothing. This was confirmed by our beloved Donald Ibrahimovich, walking through the rake of his predecessor - both in Venezuela with an unsuccessful attempt to remove the legally elected president, and in Iran with an attempt to impose further sanctions on him, after which he, relying on the support of the Russian Federation, resumed his nuclear program.
And here again Putin proves to the whole world that there is no need to play cat and mouse with him. This time in Belarus, where Lukashenka turned out to be the injured party, who, having tried to blackmail Russia, as a result outwitted himself, and is now forced to agree to much worse conditions than he was offered before. On a tangent, the Polish-Lithuanian jackals will also hit the nuts, who, without the permission of the main shareholders of the Closed Political Club of the Powerful of this World, climbed to play adult games, and now they will experience all the delights of zeroing transit through Belarus, and this is just the beginning.
What happened in Belarus after all? It may not be obvious to everyone, but the following happened - as a result of all recent events, the Republic of Belarus has de facto lost its subjectivity, becoming an object of international law. Maybe not everyone noticed this, but for the newly elected President of the Republic of Belarus, the President of the Russian Federation had to settle her affairs on the outer perimeter with the tacit consent of the newly elected guarantor Sineoka. And how else to assess the fact that the father ignored all the calls to him from the powers that be, from the Chancellor of Germany to the President of France? It is clear that not from a good life. On the other hand, what could he tell them? Do not meddle with your advice in the internal affairs of a sovereign state? And finish with the next sanctions against the Republic of Belarus and him personally? Such words would have sounded much more convincing from Vladimir Putin. And they sounded, only from a position of strength. He doesn't need to prove his legitimacy to anyone. And Lukashenka is needed! As a result, dad was forced to delegate the authority to negotiate the fate of the Republic of Belarus with external actors to Vladimir Vladimirovich and agree to all the Kremlin's proposals, which he had previously rejected, only this time on much worse conditions. And that's all he won, or rather lost. The Republic of Belarus has de facto turned from a subject of international law into an object of it with all the ensuing consequences. Here one can only recall the words of Donald the Invincible: “They didn’t want to do it in a bad way, it would be worse in an amicable way!”.
RB will be able to regain its subjectivity only in two cases. Or by replacing the president in the West's favor. This option is not even considered, given who is now in charge of the affairs of Belarus. By the way, a president pleasing to the West does not at all mean the return of lost subjectivity. Those who do not believe can look at the sad experience of Ukraine, which now even cannot go to the toilet without asking permission from the United States and the IMF. The second option for returning subjectivity is to acquire it in a new status, for example, as part of the Union State. I do not know if this option will suit the Belarusians, but there is no third option. The old man can no longer sit on two chairs. All bridges have been burned and degrees of freedom have been lost. There is no more play to maneuver. Now he is the legally elected president only for a very limited circle of countries, however, including Turkey and China, and for the rest he is the last dictator of Europe, a face not shaking hands, with a defeat in his rights. You can live, of course, and so, only for a very short time.
Meanwhile, the sent Cossack of Putin in the bowels of the Russian government continues his work
And to make it easier for the daddy to think, the Russian Federation is already taking a number of steps that complicate this life for him. As I already said earlier, RF transfers all former allies to self-sufficiency. Good or bad, we will not discuss here, only recently the Kremlin has been trying to turn Maslow's pyramid upside down, and now it does not undertake to pay extra to allies for loyalty, but a potential ally must still earn its right to be under military-political and economic the umbrella of the Russian Federation (usually this issue is resolved in monetary terms due to the negative balance in the trade and balance of payments).
As I already said, dad was good to everyone as the director of the Republic of Belarus. And it is not his fault that the director of the Russian Federation at some point in time began to be guided by somewhat different criteria of benefit-benefit, where the economic factor outweighed the geopolitical one. You and I may not even agree with this, but we are not given to know all the circumstances of the case. We just fix it for granted and move on. I would like to believe that the Kremlin has taken into account all the possible pros and cons. The one who pays is known to be the girl and the dancer. And it is not the Kremlin's fault that the Belarusian girl was caught "reconciled", all the time she looked to the left. And it is at this very moment that Putin is trying not to miss the chance that has turned up so well (and given by the dad himself!) To turn Belarus once and for all to the east.
So that you understand my train of thought, I will simply quote a document that appeared in the bowels of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Russian Federation:
“At the end of August, the Ministry of Finance submitted a resolution“ On approval of the procedure for the provision of government loans by the Russian Federation to foreign borrowing countries ”, which laid down the principle of economic expediency of issuing borrowed funds. According to this document, Armenia, Belarus, Venezuela and Cuba will not be able to receive loans under the new principles.
The Telegram channel "Nezygar" writes about this.
I would like to draw your attention to the time of the appearance of this document - the end of August, the very height of the war for the Republic of Belarus. So far, this is only a draft document, leaked by "Nezygar". But, as you know, there is no smoke without fire. Therefore, for those who did not understand, I will explain what the essence of the matter is. In fact, a new struggle for financial flows is unfolding in the government. Have you forgotten who Putin put in there to pursue a tough monetarist policy? To whom did all the regular liberals in the service of the sovereign objected so unanimously? That's right, against the adviser to the GDP Andrei Belousov. But Putin insisted, and the process began. Further I quote all the same edition:
“First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, through the Ministry of Finance, presented an updated procedure for the issuance of state loans by Russia to foreign states. On the surface, the just refusal of the financial authorities to give money without economic expediency to such states as Venezuela, Cuba or Belarus. But at a deeper level, Belousov's project is directed against the Ministry of Finance's monopoly right to dispose of Russia's foreign debts, and to individual officials and politicians who control the financial department, receive millions of dollars for their political goals.
The second part of the document does not concern us, there is a war going on over the remnants of the USSR's debts, which the Russian Federation inherited. The loans that the USSR gave to third countries (mainly developing countries following the path of building socialism) totaling about $ 148 billion, most of which have already been written off at a colossal discount, and, through some kind of left-handed gaskets, affiliated with some former officials in the highest apparatus of the Ministry of Finance and the Government of the Russian Federation (the names of Yegor Gaidar, Pyotr Aven and Anatoly Chubais appeared there). It got to the point that these figures assigned our debts to fourth countries for ridiculous interest, but with a benefit for themselves (moreover, these debts, according to the international classification, belonged to the 1st class of liquidity, since they were secured by state assets of the debtor countries). Belousov decided to put an edge to all this chaos.
But the second part does not really interest us (it deals with the debts of the USSR), but the first part of the document is a funeral march for the father. Belousov is quietly implementing Putin's policy of transferring allies to a new economic format of relations. A kind of NEP for the allies. Loyalty money ran out. Now money is only in exchange for something. In the context of Belarus, which became clear already during the current visit of the Prime Minister of the Russian government to Minsk. As a result of which Mishustin stated that
progress has been made on many issues on the Russian-Belarusian agenda, including the future of the Union State.
End of quote. Carcass! Shine! The curtain! And do not be confused by the restructuring promised by Putin of 1 billion dollars of debt out of 8, which Belarus owes the Russian Federation. This is, in order to sweeten the bitter pill for the dad, the debt is not written off, but simply restructured to pay off. When the Republic of Belarus becomes part of the Union State, maybe they will forgive.
This is how Lukashenko joined the list of wrestlers who lost on the political tatami to our master of aikido. And who will now accuse Putin of short-sightedness? Step on the mat yourself against Putin.