Kaliningrad will be in military danger if Belarus is lost


The events in Belarus have received the closest attention from the Kremlin. It is not surprising, since not only the future of the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, but also the territorial integrity of Russia itself will depend on the outcome of the confrontation in Minsk. And this is absolutely not an exaggeration, since it depends on the friendliness of Belarus whether Moscow will be able to retain Kaliningrad.


The Kaliningrad region (the former German Konigsberg and part of East Prussia) was inherited by the USSR as a result of World War II, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was cut off from the main territory of our country by Poland, Lithuania and Belarus. Its strategic importance can hardly be overestimated: the Baltic Fleet is based here, from here the Iskanders are capable of covering key NATO military facilities with their missiles. For the RF Ministry of Defense, Kaliningrad is both a strong trump card and an “Achilles heel”. Numerous maneuvers and exercises of the North Atlantic Alliance are openly aimed at blocking and neutralizing the threat from this Russian exclave.

In the event of an armed conflict, it is believed that the Kremlin will have to push through the so-called "Suwalki Corridor" from the territory of Belarus to Kaliningrad. That is, it will depend on the position of the official Minsk whether Moscow will be able to "if something happens" to keep this key region. With a high degree of probability, it can be assumed that with the coming to power in Belarus of the pro-Western opposition, everything will change dramatically for the worse. The CSTO and the agreement on the creation of the Union State will be terminated, and the Belarusian army will be transferred from the protection of the western borders to the eastern one. This means that Kaliningrad will finally turn into a cut-off slice.

At the official level, neighboring Poland, which got two-thirds of its territory after the partition of the former East Prussia, does not claim the Kaliningrad region. Her real deeds suggest otherwise. Warsaw has deployed serious forces capable of repelling the Russian onslaught on the Suwalki Corridor. Large-scale military exercises are constantly being held around the exclave.

In Kaliningrad, as, indeed, in neighboring Ukraine and Belarus, numerous NGOs are actively working, educating young people in the spirit of European values, giving them the opportunity to get a Polish education. As a result, a socially active stratum is formed, which is objectively oriented towards cooperation with the West, primarily Poland. No wonder they started talking about some claims of Warsaw to the Grodno region of Belarus, where the positions of the Poles are especially strong. There is no doubt that in the event of the collapse of the Belarusian statehood in this region of the republic there will be many who sincerely want to “return to their native harbor”.

And this may only be the beginning. If the pro-Western opposition gains the upper hand in Minsk, Belarus will turn into “Ukraine No. 2”. All interstate agreements and cooperation will be sequentially broken, and the "Suwalki Corridor" will be closed for the RF Ministry of Defense. Even worse, the territory of Belarus in the future can be used, for example, for the deployment of NATO air forces and elements of the American missile defense system. This will be a serious blow to the defenses of both “big Russia” and its remote exclave. In the event of a NATO blockade of Kaliningrad, the Russian Defense Ministry will find it very difficult to defend it without Minsk's help.
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  1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 31 August 2020 12: 55
    +2
    The first question is why such a sliding of political situations is allowed in Belarus (Ukraine, Georgia, etc.), when the question is already being put bluntly, to be or not to be. Where were they in the previous decades, where and what did all the state responsible organizations and structures do, since they allowed a slide to such confrontations and a crisis state ... I get the impression that the main enemy of Russia is sitting in Russia itself, and Russia first of all needs to get rid of internal enemy in management, then it will go outwardly more successfully ...
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 31 August 2020 14: 23
      +2
      The first question is why such a sliding of political situations is allowed in Belarus (Ukraine, Georgia, etc.), when the question is already being put bluntly, to be or not to be. Where were they in the previous decades, where and what did all the state responsible organizations and structures do, since they allowed a slide to such confrontations and a crisis ...

      You also forgot to mention Montenegro and Bolivia, in the first one a pro-American dictator has ruled since the time of Gorbachev, in the second the pro-American junta overthrew the president and elections are not expected on the horizon. winked

      I get the impression that the main enemy of Russia sits in Russia itself, and Russia first of all needs to get rid of the internal enemy in management, then it will go outwardly more successfully ...

      Already started yes the first was taken by veterinarians by plane.
  2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 31 August 2020 13: 26
    +5
    In the event of an armed conflict, it is believed that the Kremlin will have to push through the so-called "Suwalki Corridor" from the territory of Belarus to Kaliningrad.

    In the event of the outbreak of an armed conflict with NATO, in place of those encroaching on the Kaliningrad region, there may be a scorched deserted land. And no Belarus is an obstacle here. And if at least one transport going to Kaliningrad is sunk or seized, then in response Russia can sink everything that floats in the Baltic Sea ...
    And about Polish diplomas - if Belarus does not recognize them, as the EU does not recognize diplomas of Belarus, then Belarusian graduates can nail these diplomas on a carnation in the toilet. They won't do anything else. By the way, the same may apply to Ukraine.
  3. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 31 August 2020 14: 31
    +4
    And this may only be the beginning. If the pro-Western opposition gains the upper hand in Minsk, Belarus will turn into “Ukraine No. 2”. All interstate agreements and cooperation will be sequentially broken, and the "Suwalki Corridor" will be closed for the RF Ministry of Defense.

    Excuse my curiosity, it turns out that the "Suwalki Corridor" is now open for the RF Ministry of Defense? belay Can you tell me when our military used it? smile

    In the event of a NATO blockade of Kaliningrad, the Russian Defense Ministry will find it very difficult to defend it without Minsk's help.

    Lukashenka dug a tunnel to Kaliningrad? sad I would be grateful for an explanation of how Belarus will help with transit in the event of a blockade of Kaliningrad, NATO? If anything, Lukashenko did not promise to break through to the Baltic, he agrees to sit in a trench, only on his own territory. repeat
    PS Kaliningrad did not get to us, but was conquered at the cost of the lives of our soldiers, Poland got it.
    1. Observer2014 Offline Observer2014
      Observer2014 31 August 2020 21: 27
      -3
      Excuse my curiosity, it turns out that the "Suwalki Corridor" is now open for the RF Ministry of Defense? belay Can you tell me when our military used it? smile

      laughing It was never opened (in modern Russia, if in a fashionable way) to the Kaliningrad region in the event of the loss of Belarus. Well, bring five more nuclear charges. So that, if anything, it would be more pleasant to jerk. bully repeat Or add plutonium a hundred kg more to the existing ones. So that for 250 years no one has pushed into those lands.
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 31 August 2020 21: 35
        +2
        Have you gone over Meldonia? Put yourself plutonium on .... two hundred grams so as not to itch.
  4. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 31 August 2020 14: 57
    +5
    Kaliningrad will be in danger of war only when something like the US, devoid of masculine attributes in pants, is sitting in the Kremlin. There and today there are those who are afraid of the Chubais, Gaidarchiks, Yavlinskys, Gorbachevs and Yeltsins to call for account in the tribunal ... But the Republic of Belarus in its current form on the side of the Russian Federation will not go to war, the Crafty will again begin to whine about its independence, multi-vector and rights for self-determination. Belarus can be useful to the Russian Federation only if it becomes part of the Russian Federation and nothing else.
    1. Bitter Offline Bitter
      Bitter (Gleb) 31 August 2020 23: 58
      0
      Even today there are those who are afraid of the Chubais, Gaidarchiks, Yavlinskys, Gorbachevs and Yeltsins to be held accountable in the tribunal ...

      Here you are, perhaps, right, and all those movements to "develop" the Far Eastern islands and regions, to strengthen the grouping in Kaliningrad, seem to be made out of fear of their own people, and not an external "partner". Otherwise, the islands would have already sailed away long ago, and Kaliningrad would have refereed itself and self-determined, and much more.

      Belarus can be useful to the Russian Federation only if it becomes part of the Russian Federation and nothing else.

      Why do you think that Russian politicians and diplomats will not be able to play for a long time and keep Belarus in its orbit as a union state? Why is it necessary to encroach on someone's independence? We need to work, create joint institutions, introduce a single monetary unit and so on, in general, in 40-50 years, perhaps something will grow together.
      You can, of course, break it through the knee and get everything at once, but I don't think that this will be a long-term success.
      Break not build. Everything was already in the USSR, and who for a minute was one of the main instigators in the collapse of the union of states with a single infrastructure? Hence the doubts of the same Belarusians.
      1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 1 September 2020 07: 57
        +4
        Because all the independent princes in the former republics of the USSR have built and are building their independence on Russophobia, only the blind cannot see this. The Russian Federation is full of refugees from the republics of the former USSR and they left for the Russian Federation, robbed by the local titular nations to the bone. In Belarus, those who walk under the red and white flags, and with them, as in his time Yanukovych with Bandera, Luka flirts in every possible way, do not differ in love for the Russian Federation, these are the Nazis.
        1. Bitter Offline Bitter
          Bitter (Gleb) 2 September 2020 10: 18
          +1
          independent kings in the former republics ...

          And who, by and large, gave them such an opportunity? Shortsightedness, illiteracy and thirst for glory of the chief restructuring officer. Excessive thirst for power, rash, downright stupid and sometimes sabotage acts of the "father of Russian democracy." And if really, then the newly-minted Russian "potentates", sometimes in their desire to open doors with their feet, also left not far from them.

          In RB, those who walk under the red and white flags ...

          Deficiencies in the relevant state services, where, perhaps, sympathizers of the "red-white" Nazis even sit in some posts. Probably, in relation to them, some kind of constitutional protection service or real and permanent parliamentary groups and commissions in the power structures should also be formed.
          1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
            Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 3 September 2020 09: 48
            +3
            Judushka Gorbachev's guilt does not relieve them of their personal guilt. You never know who has what opportunities. For example, I have a bucket of cartridges and 3 barrels of firearms, theoretically I can go out and shoot a bunch of people, the first ones I meet. I have the opportunity, but I'm not crazy to do this ... So, the window of opportunity does not cancel the guilt of all those Bandera, Basmachi and forest brothers who crawled into the presidency of the former republics of the USSR.
            1. Bitter Offline Bitter
              Bitter (Gleb) 3 September 2020 22: 28
              +1
              He was not one, a control shot, or rather a punitive operation against his country, initiated and headed exactly BNE with the company. And all sorts of "competent" bodies and "leadership" of the people's militia and the army simply withdrew, having the opportunity to do their own business in the estates entrusted to them. Sold out and pocket at the same time robust. good And the people, which were not entirely "bored" and hungry, staged small wars here and there. These "honored" medal-bearers also need to be put in jail, but they are all honored, awarded and respected patrons of the arts, heroes of capturing, there is nowhere to put samples. Fu.
              1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 4 September 2020 10: 09
                +4
                Let's start with the fact that Gorbachev was brought to power by the head of the KGB of the USSR Andropov (the murder of Masherov and others like him) through political assassinations, but this is a completely different story. Nevertheless, this does not negate the guilt of the smallest thug who participated in the murders, pogroms and robberies of the Russian population in the former republics of the USSR on ethnic grounds. Does not cancel the guilt of the governments of these republics, with the tacit consent and approval of which these crimes were committed.
                1. Bitter Offline Bitter
                  Bitter (Gleb) 4 September 2020 10: 24
                  +1
                  does not change the guilt of the smallest scumbag.

                  Not on your nelly. But the "petty scumbag" would have continued to build his intrigues in the kitchen in front of his wife, if he had not been "signaled" with impunity and some "benefits" and prospects.
                  So, it was profitable for someone from above, whether or not to light certain stars. The problem of the rule of the individual over the laws. If BNE had been prosecuted in due time, after the burning of the warehouses, there would not have been many problems for anyone, only the Yeltsin thieves. I would sit for a while and go back to the construction site, steering a crane, earn money.
                  1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
                    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 4 September 2020 10: 31
                    +4
                    It is beneficial to those who wanted to sit in every republic of the USSR as a tsar. Gorbachev and Andropov, who were profitably sold to the United States, who destroyed the USSR with the help of these kings. Events in the Baltic republics, in Abkhazia ... began even before the official collapse of the USSR at the suggestion of local kings who were thirsty for power.
  5. King3214 Offline King3214
    King3214 (Sergius) 31 August 2020 18: 47
    0
    Did the author of the card, besides playing cards, see at all?
    Where does Belarus border on Kaliningrad, author ?????
  6. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 1 September 2020 10: 10
    +1
    Not everyone, but many have already realized that without Lukashenko Belarus will turn into "Ukraine". And how they shouted - "Hey him!" And I noticed that the presidential candidates had no program at all. You always have to pay for your safety! And Putin is doing everything right now - Lukashenka must be saved in any way !!
  7. Valery Kuzmin Offline Valery Kuzmin
    Valery Kuzmin (Valery Kuzmin) 3 September 2020 04: 04
    0
    Only laugh at the author-Russophobe ...
  8. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 5 September 2020 12: 43
    +2
    The author, do not drive the blizzard. Even if Kaliningrad loses transit through Lithuania and Belarus, nothing will happen. You understand perfectly well, this is war! Poland, the Baltics will be swept away in a matter of hours! The question is whether the Americans will harness the war .... When in American restaurants they asked if you were ready to sacrifice your cities for Warsaw or Vilnius - New York or Washington, a deathly silence reigned in the hall ...)
    1. Bitter Offline Bitter
      Bitter (Gleb) 5 September 2020 22: 36
      +1
      You perfectly understand

      that from Moscow restaurants, too, no one will rush to the military registration and enlistment offices if they are offered something similar in a mirror image. They are more likely to demolish the Kremlin and proclaim another independence than to lose everything they gained by back-breaking labor in the 90s.