What will the sanctions of Belarus against the EU countries lead to


Belarus will not tolerate sanctions from Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine that joined them, considering them an attempt to interfere in the internal political process in a sovereign country. Official Minsk is ready to answer to its Eastern European neighbors, but what will be the price of the issue?


To date, the sanctions regime against Belarus has not yet been announced, but they are talking about it in Vilnius, Warsaw and even Kiev. Having enlisted the support of Moscow, President Lukashenko stated in a belligerent manner:

We will show them what sanctions are.

Indeed, Minsk has something to respond to external pressure. For example, Lithuania, which has sheltered "President" Tikhanovskaya and constantly declares about the threat from the BelNPP, can suffer very much. The third part of the cargo traffic going through the port of Klaipeda is Belarusian. These are, first of all, potash fertilizers and petroleum products, the main source of foreign exchange earnings. Objectively, Lithuanian ports are more convenient for Minsk to use, but since the question has been translated into political flat, he can reorient to Russia, which will only benefit from this.

In the past few years, the Kremlin has begun redirecting export flows from Riga and Ventspils to its own ports in the Baltic. Because of this economic Latvia's losses are constantly growing, but such is the price of Russophobia. Lithuania looked relatively good compared to its neighbor only thanks to Belarus. Now, a significant part of freight flows from it can go to the Russian Ust-Luga, where Moscow lures with additional preferences to compensate for a longer logistic leg, and to Latvia. In addition, Minsk could complicate Vilnius' access to cheap Belarusian labor and close Lithuania to tourism. This will be a very painful blow for a small republic.

In addition to export flows to Europe, it is worth remembering about the return flows going in transit to Russia. This is the so-called "sanction", European goods on which Belarusian labels are glued. Shrimps and other products caught in the “Belarusian Sea” have long been a popular meme. So, now the Russians can no longer taste the "Belarusian" apples grown in Polish orchards. Note that now industrial gardening is gradually reviving in our country.

Perhaps Kiev may suffer the most from the quarrel with Minsk. 25% of the diesel fuel market and 40% of the gasoline market in Nezalezhnaya are accounted for by Belarus. Previously, the Ukrainian authorities could flaunt the fact that they would replace supplies from Russia with neighboring Belarus, now the games of "European solidarity" will turn against them. Air traffic between Russia and Ukraine goes through the Belavia company, but its refusal to cooperate will be another blow for Kiev.

It turns out that President Lukashenko has something to answer his neighbors, but it is worth remembering that sanctions are a double-edged weapon. Belarus itself will also lose a lot from such restrictions, and there is no one to compensate for them except Russia. Alexander Grigorievich made it clear that he was counting on financial assistance from Moscow:

Survived. We will survive now. The world is not without good people. Therefore, there is no need to scare us.

Obviously, in return, the "good people" will ask for deepening economic and political integration of the two countries within the framework of the Union State. However, this process has already objectively begun, since the stability of Belarus is increasingly becoming dependent on the Russian federal budget.
7 comments
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 30 August 2020 10: 47
    +6
    It is most profitable for Russia to economically crush the Baltics and Ukraine, for Russophobia. Therefore, it is a sin not to support Lukashenka.
  2. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 30 August 2020 11: 01
    +3
    A very interesting development of events. good If everything is so, the darkest + 10 to karma. laughing
    There is another side effect, after Russia embarked on a course of "import substitution" of the Baltic ports, not all domestic bourgeoisie got the hint right. For example, Uralchem ​​chose not to build a terminal in Ust-Luga, but to buy a terminal in the Baltics for 55 million, now it may have some problems that will help citizen Mazepin draw the right conclusions. And he is not alone ... and their assets are not limited to terminals.

    SIA "VENTAMONJAKS" (Ventamonjaks) is the largest terminal on the Baltic Sea for transshipment of liquid ammonia with a capacity of 1,5 million tons annually, located in the ice-free Free Port of Ventspils. Three deep-water berths can serve vessels with a carrying capacity of up to 60 tons. Continuous operation of the terminal allows processing up to 250 rail tank cars per day.

    Since 2014, URALCHEM has been the controlling shareholder in SIA VENTAMONJAKS through its subsidiary URALCHEM FREIGHT LIMITED. The URALCHEM Group owns 55% of shares in the company that owns 100% of SIA VENTAMONJAKS, 45% - to its Latvian partner.

    https://www.uralchem.ru/about/structure/
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 30 August 2020 11: 33
    -3
    We'll see.
    There are a lot of articles on how unlucky the Baltics are about to be. And the data, as she was no longer lucky, is not enough.

    In general, the observers are not threatened with unemployment, already a plus.
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 30 August 2020 18: 21
      +1
      Quote: Sergey Latyshev
      There are a lot of articles on how unlucky the Baltics are about to be.

      Yeah. We, who lived in the 90s, are scared that the Balts will slide down, well, to our 2005.
      Although ... Each euro contributed to the EU treasury brings the Balts 4 euros in subsidies. 300% margin is not sick at all.
    2. Pete mitchell Offline Pete mitchell
      Pete mitchell (Pete Mitchell) 31 August 2020 12: 27
      +4
      Quote: Sergey Latyshev
      And the data, as she was no longer lucky, is not enough.

      It is enough to look at the statistics of the ports: cargo, at least somehow connected with the State, goes only through Luga, private traders are slowly leaving. Instead of ships waiting in the roadstead - 3/4 steamers per week. The Latvian piece of iron "congratulated" its people on the New Year with layoffs .. The dead pipe to the Ventspils port was only a hint, which cost a decent part of the budget, but they did not understand the hint, well ... Amen.
  4. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 31 August 2020 11: 10
    +1
    If Russia did not contribute to this, the ports of the Tribalts would have stood empty for a long time. Learn from America to declare sanctions. And if Rosneft supplies Belarus with oil products and is not interested in their further use, then this is not a state policy, but a search for personal gain. The representative of the Belarusians at Solovyov's on Sunday accused her of this. And he knows what he says.
  5. dabyl Offline dabyl
    dabyl 31 August 2020 13: 18
    0
    Customs fees for passing the sanction will increase.