What is behind Putin's words about the power reserve for Belarus


On the eve of a big fuss, President Putin's interview to the federal TV channel made a big splash, where he said that Russia had created a "power reserve" that, at the request of President Lukashenko, could be used in Belarus. What can such an "open message" testify to?


Vladimir Putin literally stated the following:

We agreed that the reserve will not be used until the situation gets out of control, until the extremist elements, hiding behind political slogans, will not cross certain boundaries and will not start setting fire to cars, banks, trying to seize administrative buildings.

It should be noted that Moscow may provide military support to Minsk within the framework of the agreement on the creation of the Union State. But the very appeal to such a possibility speaks of two extremely dangerous tendencies.

At first, it becomes obvious that President Lukashenko can no longer fully rely on his own security officials and the army if he is ready to apply for outside help. This means that he has lost not only the “street”, which is almost all against him, but also the nomenklatura, which can gain too much in the event of his departure and subsequent privatization processes. This is a medical certificate of death of the former “multi-vector model” and “neutral” status of Belarus.

Secondly, such a public address by Vladimir Putin could mean an attempt to prevent the Kremlin from transforming the non-violent protests of the Belarusian opposition into violent ones. "Peaceful revolution" did not give any result, President Lukashenko is not going to leave. Now they can try to overthrow him through blood: a square filled with people, snipers, and then a helicopter to Rostov. We have already seen all this, and such a scenario works only with the passiveness of local security officials and non-interference from Russia. Apparently, some lessons were nevertheless learned, and President Putin directly and publicly stated that he would not allow a coup d'etat scenario.

The use of military support from Russia to suppress the "Belomaidan" is an extreme measure and will have certain negative consequences. On the one hand, Belarusians opposed to Lukashenka will accuse Moscow of supporting the “last dictator and usurper,” they will not greet Russian tanks with flowers, and even some form of “partisanism” is possible. The West is likely to introduce new anti-Russian sanctions. But at the same time, anti-Russian discontent will remain at the level of kitchen conversations.

On the other hand, if Moscow does not fulfill its allied duty towards Minsk, a pro-Western opposition will come to power, and then the anti-Russian agenda will shift from the kitchen and street level to the official one, becoming the basis of the new foreign and domestic policy of Belarus. This means the transformation of a formerly friendly country into another variation on the theme of Russophobic Ukraine. From the point of view of the national interests of the Russian Federation, military assistance to Lukashenka will be the lesser of two evils.

It remains to be hoped that the Russian military resource will not be needed, and the Belarusian law enforcement officers will cope with the establishment of order themselves. After that, constitutional reforms must take place. It is quite obvious that the Basic Law of the Republic of Belarus should prohibit one person from holding the presidency more than two times, and this without any loopholes for manipulating "castling" and so on. We will not be surprised if Minsk takes the path of creating its own analogue of the State Council as the last refuge for Alexander Lukashenko, and the figure of the president, to whom he will have to give power, will become more nominal, due to the transfer of key powers to other state bodies.
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  1. Vladimir_ Voronov (Vladimir) 28 August 2020 16: 02
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    It is quite obvious that the Basic Law of the Republic of Belarus should prohibit one person from holding the presidency more than two times, and this without any loopholes for manipulating "castling" and so on. We will not be surprised if Minsk follows the path of creating its analogue of the State Council as the last refuge for Alexander Lukashenko, and the figure of the president, to whom he will have to give power, will become more nominal, due to the transfer of key powers to other state bodies.

    - now you can be accused of meddling in elections. The Constitution will be adopted by the people of Belarus and there is no need to go to them with dubious advice about two presidential terms, etc. They will figure it out themselves.
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 28 August 2020 20: 05
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      It is quite obvious that the Basic Law of the Republic of Belarus should prohibit one person from holding the presidency more than two times, and this without any loopholes for manipulating "castling" and so on.

      One standard for everyone. good The old nag of German politics in the trash heap. negative
      1. Marzhecki Offline
        Marzhecki (Sergei) 29 August 2020 06: 22
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        Personally, I'm all for it. Power must change regularly.
        And as for the trash heap, you are frankly distorting in your demagogic style. A former president or chancellor, if he ruled with dignity, will always find himself in politics, business or social activities.
        1. 123 Offline
          123 (123) 29 August 2020 10: 07
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          Personally, I'm all for it. Power must change regularly.

          Try to tell the editor-in-chief this. winked
          1. A.Lex Offline
            A.Lex (Secret information) 29 August 2020 21: 40
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            123, the leadership of the country is an elective position, and the leadership in your case is appointed ("independent" media does not exist in nature - everyone plows for someone ... and "making money by advertising" is a fairy tale in favor of the poor in brains). wink lol
            1. 123 Offline
              123 (123) 29 August 2020 21: 43
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              123, the leadership of the country is an elective position, and the leadership in your case is appointed ("independent" media does not exist in nature - everyone plows for someone ... and "making money by advertising" is a fairy tale in favor of the poor in brains)

              Recently I watched how the election of the editor took place on "Echo of Moscow" ... in the end, they were left with a shaggy, curly-haired dictator. laughing By the way, going back to Germany, there are no direct elections there. Merkel MPs elect.
              1. A.Lex Offline
                A.Lex (Secret information) 29 August 2020 22: 18
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                In-in! And they will teach us how to pick our nose correctly ?!
        2. A.Lex Offline
          A.Lex (Secret information) 29 August 2020 21: 37
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          Excuse me, Sergei, why should your opinion on changing the ruler (no more than twice) be preferable to mine (if I am against such a "law on two terms" ... I'm not talking about GDP in particular, but in general)?
          Do you even think this is correct ??? It's strange ... And if the people DO NOT WANT this? If the people are satisfied with their leader, whom HE CHOOSES? What is this restrictive measure? And this is called "democracy"? To hell with this "democracy"!
          For me, it will be fair if the PEOPLE decide for themselves at the ELECTIONS who and how much to rule: if they manage, let them plow and justify the people's trust, and if not, let them get out of the leadership of the country!
    2. Piramidon Offline
      Piramidon (Stepan) 28 August 2020 21: 29
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      Quote: Vladimir_Voronov
      now you can be accused of meddling in elections

      And where did you see "election interference"?
      1. Marzhecki Offline
        Marzhecki (Sergei) 29 August 2020 06: 20
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        Mr Voronov is simply not quite adequate. This is clearly seen from the side.
        1. A.Lex Offline
          A.Lex (Secret information) 29 August 2020 21: 41
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          But that's for sure! ... it's strange that he is little appreciated ...
  2. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 29 August 2020 07: 03
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    The events in Belarus showed how far the government is from the people. After all, besides forceful methods, the president could offer the people nothing else. I agree that Belarus cannot live without Russia. The USSR dissolved in the direction of tenderness and sophistication. Now a certain brutality has been adopted. Of course, we don't know the middle. Throughout our history, we have had a trail of human shortcomings, including nepotism and the Bai attitude towards subordinates. That there is no ideology is nonsense. Human greed, craving for profit only reinforces human shortcomings.
  3. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 30 August 2020 10: 37
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    Lukashenko turned to the Russian Federation for military assistance (albeit within the framework of the SG and the CSTO) and refused to talk with Merkel, Macron and others, leaving them to talk to Putin on the topic of Belarus.
    In fact, this already means the transfer of part of the sovereignty of Belarus to Russia.
    The main thing here is to start.