There is no way out: the accession of Belarus to the Russian Federation becomes the last chance to save Lukashenka's power


After almost two weeks of mass protests after the presidential elections, it can be concluded that the attempt to carry out the “white maidan” on the move has failed. Having enlisted the support of Moscow and armed with a submachine gun, Alexander Grigorievich continues to speak with the opposition from a position of strength. However, this does not mean that everything is over. On the contrary, for Belarus the real troubles are just beginning.


The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, bluntly stated that Belarus followed the so-called “Venezuelan scenario”:

Maduro and Lukashenko are in exactly the same situation. We do not admit that they were legally chosen.

It should be admitted that, built for decades by Alexander Grigorievich политическая и economic the model went completely bankrupt. Previously, he could afford to maneuver between the West and Russia and bargain, now in the European Union he is expected only in The Hague. The “Venezuelan scenario” means the presence of an alternative head of state “in exile”, for the official Minsk this is Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, based in neighboring Lithuania. The “Belarusian economic miracle” is about to collapse with a bang. The imposition of sanctions by the US and the EU on the purchase of oil and oil products from Minsk will be a heavy blow to the country's budget. Foreign assets of Belarus can also be seized and transferred to the management of "President Tikhanovskaya" and an alternative government.

That's it, the former quiet life for the brothers-Belarusians is over: they will no longer be given it under Lukashenka, and there will be no more after Tikhanovskaya came to power. The opposition does not hide plans for a large-scale privatization of state property, which will instantly lead to a strong stratification of society and an increase in unemployment. Withdrawal from the EAEU, the CIS and the Union State will hit the remnants of the Belarusian economy. Breaking the agreements within the CSTO and turning towards NATO will turn Minsk from an ally into a potential enemy of Moscow. Since not all Belarusians, later waking up from their indignation, will be ready for such radical changes, there will be preconditions for a civil conflict between the western and eastern parts of the country, which historically have their own specifics.

President Lukashenko himself, having played in "multi-vector", remained at the head of the country all alone. He can no longer count on the nomenclature and special services. Only riot police and the army separate it from the giant crowd of dissent under the white-red-white flag. Now every day of his reign will resemble a sitting with a burning candle on a powder keg. Provocations will go one after another, on the rise, and the system's safety margin will sooner or later run out.

Objectively, only Russia can save friendly Belarus from the “Venezuelan” scenario, smoothly turning into the “Ukrainian” one. A few months ago, a compromise variant of the integration of the two allied countries in the format of a confederation with the preservation of their sovereignty would have been optimal, but Aleksandr Grigorievich himself sabotaged and successfully torpedoed it. After his political fiasco, the stakes have risen sharply, and the range of decisions has narrowed. It's time to talk about a full-fledged unification into a “soft” federation, which is quite fair, since Russia is openly taking upon itself the maintenance of Belarus at the expense of its budget.

In the first version, we can talk about joining six new regions on equal terms with the rest of the subjects of the Russian Federation. In the second - about the creation of a separate Belarusian Federal District. The third, most flexible option may involve granting Belarus the status of a “federal territory” that is not part of any Russian entity. This is a new legal category introduced with amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation. Within its framework, Minsk, by agreement with Moscow, could get itself a "special status" in the format of the Union State.
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  1. Nothing, Papa Lou will fight back! There, at Maduro's, they walked around, shouted, and where is Guaido now?
    1. Kazbek Offline
      Kazbek (kazbek) 27 August 2020 14: 29
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      Maduro survived only because of Russian interference. In an amicable way, it would be nice for Venezuela to create a confederation with Russia as in Switzerland to preserve the integrity of the state. Otherwise, attempts to overthrow the government will continue.
  2. Jarilo Offline
    Jarilo (Sergei) 26 August 2020 11: 38
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    If there is no development program in Russia, then what is the point of joining us. Belarus has always been the assembly shop of the Soviet Union.
    1. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 26 August 2020 12: 03
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      Yes, we certainly need a program of political and economic reforms in Russia itself and an adequate integration project in the post-Soviet space.
    2. Kazbek Offline
      Kazbek (kazbek) 27 August 2020 14: 37
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      In case you haven't noticed, the program is already underway. The wild capitalism of the Yeltsin era is ending. More and more enterprises and structures are being nationalized, i.e. goes under state administration. And even with privatization, the state retains a controlling stake. And most importantly, more and more new enterprises are being built to replace those destroyed during the Yeltsin era. And I would advise Belarusians to give a controlling stake to the state when corporatizing enterprises, and distribute the rest to the employees of the enterprises, and not sell "for a bottle of vodka", as it was in Russia.
      1. meandr51 Offline
        meandr51 (Andrei) 30 August 2020 23: 01
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        So that the workers themselves sell them for a bottle of vodka?
  3. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 26 August 2020 12: 34
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    Some want to "pochubaysit" a little. Everybody thinks that the authorities are dreaming of uniting and "optimizing" everything.
    For 20 years they have already been dreaming, telepathically getting into the heads of presidents.

    And not to unite (99,9%)? This will be a new topic for writing articles. Everywhere political strategists win.
  4. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 26 August 2020 12: 50
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    President Lukashenka himself, having played in the "multi-vector" approach, remained at the head of the country all alone. He can no longer count on the nomenclature and special services. Only riot police and the army separate it from the gigantic crowd of dissent under the white-red-white flag. Now every day of his reign will resemble a sitting with a burning candle on a powder keg.

    - Yes .. what does Lukashenka have to do with it ??? - Pancake...

    "... don't shoot the pianist ... - he plays ... as best he can .."

    - Well, who would and what would ... - in his place could do something else ... - "optimal-radical" ???
    - It's just that time, the "old time" for Belarus is over ... - Lukashenka, with his "socialist way of life", held out for so long ... - It's just amazing to stretch so much ... - constantly maneuvering between Moscow and the West ... - Constantly begging for money from Moscow; and at the same time ... - constantly "portraying a conflict" (specifically for the West) with Moscow ... in order not to lose tiny supplies of Belarusian products to this West ... and at the same time to beat quotas for supplies of Belarusian products to Russia and try to reduce prices for Russian hydrocarbons ... - who else can ???
    - Well, now ... it can still be left for a year and a half, while in Belarus there will be a redistribution and sale of state enterprises and their purchase by oligarchs, etc. ... - It will be a terrible and terrible time ... - not will do without casualties and shooting ... and criminal showdowns ...
    - I personally wrote about this in detail in the topic:

    The political scientist explained why Lukashenka will abandon the Union State even now

    - And then they will write off all sins on him (on Lo) and "hang all the dogs" and ... and they will be removed from power with a crash ... - Honestly ... - I even feel sorry for him in a human way ...
  5. King3214 Offline
    King3214 (Sergius) 26 August 2020 14: 21
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    The question is, why save Lukashenka’s power, especially by joining Russia, if the overwhelming majority of Belarusians are satisfied with everything, and the way it is now - Russia pays for "Belarusian socialism", Belarusians are inflated with their own greatness and quality ... They don't need it ...
    And why should we, especially pay for their exorbitant pride?
    1. Tektor Offline
      Tektor (Tektor) 26 August 2020 16: 01
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      Because as it was, it will no longer be. Bobik died. Moscow tightened the screws and the Belarusian budget deficit grew by tens of percent. There is nothing to close the hole with. Only the integration of enterprises with their counterparties in Russia will save. Only in this case it will be possible to avoid mass layoffs of workers with their subsequent impoverishment.
      1. King3214 Offline
        King3214 (Sergius) 26 August 2020 23: 04
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        Since enterprises in Belarus are unprofitable, then let them close and solve the problems of the unemployed.
        And Russia has its own business. We need to maintain the army, aviation, navy and Strategic Missile Forces, in short, allies of Russia.
    2. Ivan Semenov Offline
      Ivan Semenov (Ivan Semenov) 26 August 2020 17: 15
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      Quote: King3214
      if the overwhelming majority of Belarusians are satisfied with everything and the way it is now

      As it will no longer be. Previously, you had to think, but now you have to choose - like Crimea or like Ukraine.
      1. King3214 Offline
        King3214 (Sergius) 26 August 2020 23: 02
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        Why should Russia choose something? It doesn't drip over us.
    3. bubasa Offline
      bubasa (Konstantin) 2 September 2020 07: 55
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      Absolutely right.
  6. commbatant Offline
    commbatant (Sergei) 26 August 2020 19: 33
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    Another anti-Belarusian article ...
    1. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 27 August 2020 09: 27
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      Totally wrong.
    2. Kazbek Offline
      Kazbek (kazbek) 27 August 2020 14: 45
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      Not anti-Belarusian, but anti-Zmagar. The Belarusians are a fraternal people, and the Zmagars are former Polish slaves who missed the whip of the Polish master.
  7. Alexey Sergeichuk (Alexey Sergeichuk) 26 August 2020 22: 33
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    The Belarusians need to decide not on an infantile choice: whether they like Lukashenka or not - no one particularly likes him, but with the geopolitical one - they are with Russia or near Poland. Lukashenka alone could play between the West and Russia, but the whole nation cannot cope with such balancing act.
    1. Michael I Offline
      Michael I (Michael I) 28 August 2020 08: 10
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      Write honestly, under Poland or under Russia. In any case, it will be necessary to merge.
  8. Kazbek Offline
    Kazbek (kazbek) 27 August 2020 14: 24
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    What does Lukashenka's preservation of power have to do with it? This is not the most important thing. The question is about preserving the state and people. In any case, the transition to capitalism is inevitable. But how? Either a soft transition to Russia and gradual privatization and at the same time state support from the Russian budget (while large enterprises will remain in the hands of the state), or a turn from Russia towards the West and abrupt privatization with the closure of unprofitable enterprises and, naturally, without subsidies from Russia ... Then tens and hundreds of thousands of unemployed, stratification of society, social conflicts, and even a possible civil war like in Ukraine. And about the transition to a separate region - the second USSR is not needed. In the sense of the structure of building the state. Already passed. Only entry by separate regions. And without the right to exit. Whoever doesn't like it - let the fauna go out.
  9. Artyom76 Offline
    Artyom76 (Artyom Volkov) 27 August 2020 22: 46
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    They destroyed the USSR, allegedly "there is nothing to feed the Russian Federation!" Now they are again creating a "union state" which again have some privileges, and let the people of the Russian Federation be as they were. Am I missing anything?
  10. Gennady_3 Offline
    Gennady_3 (Gennady Bylev) 28 August 2020 04: 31
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    Russia needs to become part of Belarus.
    1. Warrior Offline
      Warrior 29 August 2020 21: 37
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      So after all, the "revolution of disintegration" is taking place in Belarus, not in Russia ...
      Russia lives and is being built STABLE ... So, no need to "be wise".
  11. Warrior Offline
    Warrior 29 August 2020 21: 35
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    EVERYTHING IS CORRECT: the Belarusians will be saved ONLY by joining Russia, as they previously were part of the Russian Empire ..
    And Lukashenka is EVERYTHING - "bobby is dead" ...
  12. marciz Offline
    marciz (Stas) 31 August 2020 03: 09
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    Quote: gorenina91
    - And then on him (on Lo)

    "Brother Louis", well done, came up with a nickname for this deer !!!!!
  13. Dear Belarusian people, you don't even know what the West wants to drag you into, and, above all, what the West really is. The West is fascist and completely occupied by invaders from the Western Allies, who have been sucking the German people dry for more than 70 years. It all started in 1989 in August, when they cleverly opened the Iron Curtain. Since the countries of the Eastern Bloc have been preparing for bankruptcy for a long time (since 1980), now, at the next stage, it was these countries of the Eastern Bloc that could be caught on loans, exchanged governments, either voluntarily pro-Western, or they were simply removed, accidents. The next scenario is a lie in 1990, the alleged spontaneous fall of the Berlin Wall. It was planned that even on the eve of the GDR would not be reunited with West-occupied Germany, but would be annexed by treason. Thus, all further borders can be removed, and one Baltic country after another can be taken under control. What Belarus still lacks, the West is working on. The world believes that it is Germany and the EU, but behind this there are always the same Western allies, the permanent occupiers of Germany, who have been taking over the whole of Europe for 30 years. Don't make the same mistake and fall in love with these criminals. The game is "divide and conquer". If you divide entire nations, you can control them much better. We are a family that knows both systems and the approach of the West. Stick together as a people, because otherwise the West will suck you dry and spit you out, like everyone else who, unfortunately, realized this too late.
  14. bubasa Offline
    bubasa (Konstantin) 2 September 2020 07: 44
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    Excuse me, do we need it?