Now, when the confrontation in Belarus has acquired a positional character, one can already sum up some intermediate results and suppose how it all might end.
The Last Dictator's Cunning Plan
The motto of the Republic of Chile sounds like this: "Por la razón o la fuerza" (from Spanish - "Reason or strength"). It seems that Alexander Grigorievich Lukashenko is haunted by the laurels of Salvador Guillermo Allende, although his rebellious people associate him more with Augusto José Ramon Pinochet. Nothing else can explain the appearance of the last president of the Republic of Belarus on the threshold of his residence with a machine gun in his hands (however, unlike the deceased president of the Republic of Chile, the machine of the President of the Republic of Belarus was for some reason without cartridges). But with all his appearance, Alexander Grigorievich showed that he would fight to the last, and if not with reason, then power would defend his power. Well, what a laudable wish. Especially against the background of his Ukrainian colleague who fled at the first shots. 14 days after the beginning of Belomaidan, it should be admitted that the dad, having survived the first horror that overwhelmed him from the scale and scope of the protest actions that covered the country, has already recovered, got out of his stupor and is now trying to seize the initiative.
Fortunately, his opponents contribute to this. Belomaidan still has no adequate leaders, no single center, no clear plan of action, and the protest movement still has a carnival character. With all due respect to Ms. Tikhanovskaya, it should be admitted that if she is the leader of the Maidan, then I am then a ballerina of the Bolshoi Theater. Trusting her country not only for six months, even for a week is dangerous due to her inadequacy. She is not a politician at all, she is politically illiterate, she is not ready to fulfill the duties entrusted to herself in any way from the word “absolutely”. One gets the full impression that even the texts written by her advisers she does not fully understand. The Coordinating Council of the Opposition, which she created, is generally a pitiful sight. These are mainly the intelligentsia, the humanities, people of free creative professions, suitable only for signing collective letters, writing appeals and emotional public speaking, but not at all for running the country. A politician is a profession, it needs to be specially trained, and there are no such people in this Council. This Coordination Council actually coordinates nothing and no one, it has no connection either with the workers or with the strike committees. There is not even a single candidate of the level of the Polish Lech Walesa. However, in the event of the slightest threat to personal security, these lights of the nation will be the first to “merge”, having fled abroad (some have already fled and sow good, light, eternal from there, drinking some Polish, some Lithuanian, some Ukrainian tea-coffee).
Lukashenka, repelling the first onslaught of the street, took the only correct course in this situation to "sit out" the Maidan, in the hope that the Maidan, which does not have financial and resource support, will sooner or later fizzle out. At the pace that the opposition has taken, all this can last no more than a month, even less. A protest that has no leaders, no program, or even tactics will sooner or later fizzle out. Walking the streets, even in very large numbers, tens of thousands of people does not convert into the seizure of power. Read the founders of Marxism-Leninism. Lenin, 100 years ago, described everything in detail what was needed for this and why. You need organization, program, tactics and leaders. The opposition has none of this. So far, this is a crowd that perceives the struggle against the regime partly as a civil feat, partly as a holiday, naively believing that it is enough to take to the streets and the regime will fall. But for some reason he doesn't fall. Another 200 thousand, 300 thousand, even 500 thousand people can be taken to the streets, nothing will change. Peaceful protest demonstrations do not lead to the overthrow of authoritarian regimes. Lukashenka simply does not care about these protests. As long as the security structures support him, nothing threatens him or his regime. Therefore, he is not going to re-elections, but even to negotiations with the opposition. And he does the right thing!
The regime can only shake the forceful confrontation with the protesters according to the Ukrainian scenario. This is the opposition's only chance to turn the situation in its favor. Literally according to Lenin - the creation of military detachments and the seizure of administrative buildings (in Lenin's time these were bridges, post office, railway stations, telegraph, now one government building is enough, they already have Telegram channels). But since the opposition has no fighting detachments, and they also do not intend to seize administrative buildings, their business is a "pipe". The leaders who called themselves the leaders of Belomaidan do not even have an understanding of what to do with so many people who took to the streets. All will end with the fact that people disperse, and the organizers of the protests will be identified by the Belarusian KGB and taken over. In France, with much more numerous and militant "yellow vests", this ended in nothing, now Khabarovsk residents follow their path, going out to protest actions every Saturday, and every Saturday missing their supporters. This is the fate of all spontaneous Maidans.
In this situation, the Kremlin quite rightly took a wait and see attitude. Having recognized Lukashenko's victory, Moscow, having already sad Ukrainian experience, does not give the go-ahead to any negotiations with the opposition, let alone re-elections, and is not going to act as a mediator in this process either. Memories are still fresh of how this process ended for Yanukovych. Therefore, the maximum that Moscow can go to is to support the Constitutional reform, which will allow the Lukashenka regime to evolve into something more decent, and then we will see. But again, all this is under the sauce that this is the business of the Belarusians themselves, since Belarus is a sovereign state and all that. The Kremlin not in words, but in deeds embodies the motto of the 18th century French Foreign Minister Charles Maurice de Talleyrand:
"To betray in time means not to betray, but to foresee!"
once again confirming that in policy nothing has changed in the last 150 years.
“There are no convictions in politics, there are only circumstances” (the author is still the same).
The Kremlin's cunning plan
For some time now, the Russian Federation has been transferring all its former allies to self-sufficiency, forgetting that politics and commodity-money relations are not the same thing. We can agree with this statement of the question or not, but the fact remains - the Kremlin turned Maslow's pyramid upside down, and now it does not undertake to pay extra to an ally for loyalty, but a potential ally must still earn his right to be under a military-political and economic umbrella RF (usually this issue is resolved in monetary terms due to the negative balance in the trade and balance of payments). As a result, the Russian Federation risks, as it did 150 years ago under Alexander III, to remain with only two allies - with its own army and its own fleet.
An attempt to monetize foreign policy, transfer it to the plane of commodity-money relations, replacing it with a supermarket, can cost the Kremlin dearly, it risks being left without allies even in its soft underbelly, repeating the sad experience of the late USSR, which tried to replace the unshakable principle that alliances must be paid for , its new interpretation that it is necessary to pay extra for the alliance. As a result, the USSR was left without allies and without money. And then he disappeared as a state.
The Russian Federation is completely in vain in this issue trying to compete with the United States, which are the founders and trendsetters in terms of "soft" power. They are not accustomed to working with their satellites for a long time, alternately alternating between a stick and a carrot, growing and feeding the local comprador elite, who are ready to sell for a fraction of their homeland, not just their mother! The Americans have a lot of money - they have enough for everything, but we cannot even defend our underbelly, and we watch as hostile states grow around the borders of the Russian Federation. And the reason here is not at all in money, although their importance should not be underestimated. The reason is the mental differences between the Anglo-Saxons and the Great Russians. Russians, unlike their opponents, are not so sophisticated in undercover games and intrigues, they always try to play by the rules, and if anything, then solve problems in a fair fight. So they decide. Another cavalry swoop - the checkers were bare and rushed, not counting the losses. Ukraine has already been lost, after it they also lost Armenia, and before it Georgia, Moldova, Central Asia, Azerbaijan, now Belarus is next. The policy of the blind ostriches! Greedy and short-sighted pays twice! We gave up our outskirts, now we are surprised that our enemy is there. See how Americans defend their soft underbelly - Latin and Central America. Now look at ours. There are already some of our enemies!
It is clear that the Kremlin has to reckon with the real state of affairs, and the Russian Federation cannot be compared with the USSR either in area, or in population, or in terms of GDP, or even in terms of weapons. Plus, the Russian Federation, unlike the USSR, is tied to the WTO, so we can easily cut off oxygen, which the United States does periodically. Therefore, Putin is forced to work as number two with an eye to the West, more precisely to the United States, and, thank God, that Donald Invincible is still sitting there, and not one of his democratic opponents. Yes, maybe the GDP lacks the determination of Nikita the Blessed, who banged his boot on the UN rostrum and brought the matter to the Caribbean crisis. But Putin has a different psychotype, banging bast shoes on the podium is not his style, he prefers to be mysteriously silent and perform asymmetric actions, using the enemy's inertia. Let others speak instead. Here a special role is assigned to Zhirinovsky, who, with the permission of the Kremlin, checks the maximum deflection angles. It is he who tests the attitude of society to certain problems and methods of their resolution. Pay attention to it, it is not in vain that it sometimes shakes the air.
Father and I had a chance to create a Union State solely because the road to the West was ordered to him. But dad turned out to be incapable of negotiation, with his multi-vector policy, he himself nullified this chance. Therefore, the Kremlin, taking advantage of the occasion, presents it with a choice, either with us on our terms, or "come on, goodbye!" And it is not at all certain that other candidates for the vacated seat will be tempted to leave for the West. What are they smeared with honey there, in the West? Maybe they will be offered markets for selling Belarusian products there? Aha! Hold your pocket wider! We look at the Baltic States, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, "well, did these Poles help them?"
Old Man was good as the director of the Republic of Belarus. And it is not his fault that the director of the Russian Federation at some point in time began to be guided by somewhat different criteria of benefit-benefit, where economic the geopolitical factor outweighed. You and I may not even agree with this, but we are not given to know all the circumstances of the case. We just fix this fact and move on. I would like to believe that the Supreme has taken into account all the possible pros and cons. The one who pays is known to be the girl and the dancer. And it is not the fault of the Supreme Commander that the Belarusian girl was caught "reconciled", all the time she looked to the left. And it is here and now that Putin is trying not to miss the chance that has turned up so well (and, given by the dad himself!), To turn Belarus once and for all to the east. Moreover, when the external situation contributes to this. We will consider it below.
Cunning plans of the Collective West
Until now, we have talked about the visible part of the Belarusian iceberg. Now let's talk about the invisible one. It just so happened that in the Belarusian crisis there are not so many external actors involved in it. That is why the daddy has every chance to get out of the water, suffering only reputational losses.
Initially, no one was going to "blame" it on the outer contour. In the West, during the 26 years of his rule, everyone has already come to terms with the fact of his existence, and, given the factor of the "Kremlin roof", they could only hope for his physical death. And the object they came across was strong and tenacious. But not smart! And only himself is to blame for the current crisis. Limit the dad to 55-60% of votes of support in the elections, everything could have gone like this. But he wanted, like Putin - 80%. Got! Now let him not complain. The head is needed not only to wear a mustache on it. I think that now the Belarusian hockey will have hard times. And there is only one step from love to hate. Here dad passed him.
All international vultures, from Poland and the Baltic limitrophes, to the nestlings of Soros's nest, which nest all over the world, did not fail to take advantage of the situation. Fortunately for dad, the collective West does not oppose him as a united front, as it was in Ukraine. Trump is now busy with his election campaign, which has already reached the home stretch. He would have to sort out his problems, where else would he have Belarusian ones? True, the States are not homogeneous, and there are forces there that are interested in destabilizing the situation in the soft underbelly of the Russian Federation. These are forces from the democratic camp opposing Trump, which is now striving for power. And it was their people sitting all over the world who initiated the Belarusian crisis through their seals in Poland, Lithuania and Britain. But official Washington does not participate in this, so a compromise with him on this issue is quite possible for the Kremlin. And it's not a fact that negotiations are no longer underway.
Poland has its own interests in this party. There, since the time of Pilsudski, they have been running around with the ideas of Greater Poland “from Mozha to Mozha” (from sea to sea), and the situation in neighboring Belarus is just about that. Lithuania's participation in this is also due to the same phantom pains about the Grand Duchy of Lithuania that has sunk into oblivion. It is significant that even among the Baltic limitrophes there is no unity on this issue. Latvia and Estonia have already announced their separate position. What Britain is doing there is also understandable, it is a stretch of land bounded by the sea, where Democratic opponents of Trump never gave up their positions. There they are already counting the days when the Eternally Sleepy Joe will be in the Oval Office. So why not help him, and throw some wood into the smoldering fire around the eternal enemy of the British Empire?
But the forces here are clearly not equal. These plans are opposed by Berlin, Paris, and Brussels, which are completely uninterested in strengthening Poland, which has already become completely morose, dragging the European blanket over itself. I'm not even talking about the PRC and the Russian Federation, which were the first to recognize the results of the Belarusian elections. And with such powerful allies, Luke may well expect to get away with it. But not for long! Only for a transitional period, during which he will hand over his powers to a candidate approved by the Kremlin and Washington. We have here that rare case when the eternal enemies of the United States, the EU and the Russian Federation have united to solve a local problem. The last such precedent was created in Moldova a little over a year ago, when the same participants united to demolish the only Moldovan oligarch Plahotniuc, who was boring and swam behind the buoys. Then, a 15-minute visit to him at the office of the US Ambassador to Chisinau Derek Hogan was enough to demolish the frail gray cardinal of Moldova. I think it will take a little longer for Lukashenka. But not more than six months.
What was the war for?
At the end of summing up the preliminary results, I will only outline the reasons that prompted the opposing sides to converge in this unequal battle on the Belarusian bridgehead.
1st reason, technological: On the example of the Republic of Belarus, all the regular enemies of the Russian Federation tested the technologies for demolishing the Putin regime in 2024. And it is for this reason that Putin could not lose here, so as not to create a precedent. Everyone understands that the factor of 2024 has not been canceled. They are preparing for it. They work for the future. Comprehensively. Slowly. Exceptionally "soft" power, since "hard" power cannot take the Russian Federation. They have been digging for Putin for a long time - Bolotnaya, Khabarovsk, all sorts of Kasparov-bulk-Khodorkovsky-Nevzlins-Yavlinsky (the list is long, you can continue it yourself). By the way, about Navalny. Just look, our hero can give an oak, leaning against a Berlin birch. And again they want to hang it on us. Beginner # 2. The dirty work of the Russian special services. Is it only our services? Our special services work much more subtly. Navalny was the most convenient enemy and lightning rod for Putin, his physical death is convenient for anyone, just not VVP! Classic sacred sacrifice, Nemtsov # 2. Okay, let's wait and see how it ends.
2nd reason, logistic: Closing the belt of exclusion around the Russian Federation, creating an enemy buffer along the Kiev-Warsaw-Minsk-Vilnius axis, destroying logistics schemes both along the RF-EU line and along the New Silk Road China-RF-EU. The problem of the Kaliningrad region immediately arises, which is completely cut off from the metropolis. Here the interests of both the Russian Federation and the PRC converged, so Belarus will not be given up so easily.
3rd reason, militaryFirst, Baranovichi has a missile warning system that controls all of Europe and the patrol areas of US and British Trident ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) in the North Atlantic and the Norwegian Sea. Secondly, the Vileika radio station covers the areas of the Atlantic, Indian and partly Pacific oceans, providing communications for the nuclear submarines of the Russian Navy at a distance of up to 10 thousand kilometers. The agreement on the stay of these objects in the status of Russian expires in the summer of 2021. Their current significance for Russia will be, perhaps, no less than the naval base in Sevastopol. And this is the most important moment for us today. About the mighty allied Belarusian army, which, hypothetically, could become another enemy of ours (who does not believe in it, we look at the mighty Ukrainian Armed Forces), about the airfields for the NATO Air Force on the territory of the Republic of Belarus and about the sites for American missile defense systems, hypothetically, could appear there, I won't say anything. We took Crimea away from Ukraine for less threats.
4th reason, MIC: A number of Belarusian enterprises are tied up in the technological chain of a single military-industrial complex, and although steps to localize these industries in Russia have long been taken, the problem has not yet been resolved. For example, for 10 years KAMAZ has not been able to replace the MZKT (Minsk plant of wheeled tractors), which made tractors for the needs of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces.
Let's see how it all ends. Maduro survived in Venezuela, thanks to the Russian Federation and China. Lukashenka has the same roof. But the situation is somewhat different. Putin, as you know, is a master of martial arts, he does not hit first, uses the inertia of the enemy. Luca did everything himself to be hanged (figuratively speaking), or rather, to launch the regime of his removal from power. Therefore, the minimum task for the Russian Federation is to prepare a replacement for him so that he would say: “I'm tired! I'm leaving!" and transferred the case. Otherwise, Maidan and chaos. Nobody wants this!