What happens if Belarus becomes Russia's enemy?


The situation in friendly Belarus continues to be very serious. The protesters do not leave the streets, and President Lukashenko is ready to close the striking factories and even "took up the machine gun" himself. At the moment, Aleksandr Grigorievich is practically "on bayonets", but what happens if the army refuses to shoot at the people during the escalation of the conflict, and power in Minsk still passes into the hands of the opposition?


They do not even hide the fact that opponents of President Lukashenko do not see a future in the union with Russia. About economic the consequences of a possible turn of Belarus to the West, we told earlier. Now it's worth talking about the possible military consequences of the loss of our last ally. They will be very serious for both countries.

At first, we should expect that the pro-Western government will first ask for the exit of the military infrastructure of the RF Ministry of Defense. These are the 43rd communication center of the Russian Navy, located in the Minsk region, and the radio engineering center Baranovichi, where the Volga radar station is located. The latter is an important element of the missile attack warning system. And the 43rd communications center provides communication between the General Staff of the Russian Navy and our nuclear submarines, which are on alert in the Atlantic, Indian and partly Pacific oceans. That is, their importance for the security of Russia and Belarus itself as our ally can hardly be overestimated.

Will Moscow be able to somehow compensate for the loss of these military facilities? Yes, it can, unfortunately, this has already happened more than once. The Russian Ministry of Defense has already lost radar stations in the Latvian Skrunda, in the Ukrainian Mukachevo, in Kazakhstan and in Azerbaijan (Gabala). From Latvia the radar station moved to Belarusian Baranovichi, from Azerbaijan - to Armavir, from Kazakhstan - near Orsk. The Belarusian "Volga", if necessary, will be replaced by radars in the Kaliningrad and Leningrad regions, as well as on the Kola Peninsula. In the worst-case scenario, the functions of the 43rd communications center of the Navy will be switched to the Antey station in the region of Krasnodar and Novgorod.

Secondly, the transformation of Belarus from an ally of Russia to its potential adversary is much more dangerous. Its army is relatively small, but well trained and armed, and, if necessary, can be increased by mobilization to half a million people. Now all of her directed in the western and northwestern directions, but after the Russophobic opposition comes to power, the situation will change dramatically, and already on the eastern border a “Belarusian rampart” may appear, bristling in our direction with barbed wire, minefields and trunks.

In addition to the threat from NATO and the incredibly enlarged Ukrainian army, we will get another big problem. Moscow will have to completely revise its entire defense structure in the western direction. If Belarus joins NATO or becomes its partner, the military infrastructure of this alliance will sharply approach the key facilities of the RF Ministry of Defense. Kaliningrad, St. Petersburg and Moscow will be literally a stone's throw away.

Thirdly, it is necessary to separately talk about Kaliningrad. This territorial exclave of ours is sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland, and only the friendliness of Belarus gives reason to hope that, if necessary, the Russian military will be able to break through the "Suwalki corridor". If Minsk follows the path of Kiev, Kaliningrad should probably be forgotten, since there will be practically no way to keep it, and the neighboring European Union will simply consistently reintegrate it.

The price of the issue is very high. One can respect the choice of the Belarusian brothers who do not want the endless rule of President Lukashenko. But Moscow simply has no right to hand Minsk over to the anti-Russian opposition. This is a matter of our national security. In Belarus, a compromise is needed between the government and the population and a transitional period until Lukashenka leaves or re-elections under security guarantees from Russia, during which political and economic reforms.
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  1. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 24 August 2020 12: 50
    +3
    Everything seems to be neat and logical, but .....
    1) Military facilities on the territory of Belarus are duplicated by similar ones located in the north and south of the country. Their loss is unpleasant, but not critical.

    That is, their importance for the security of Russia and Belarus itself as our ally can hardly be overestimated.

    However, you overestimate them.
    2) The entry of the Republic of Belarus into NATO is an unlikely development of events, even if the pro-Western opposition comes to power. For some reason, Ukraine and Georgia have not yet been accepted, but they are trying to get there, jumping out of their pants.
    3) "Suwalki corridor". Do you think that it can only be broken through Poland? Through Latvia and Lithuania further 300 km, but the problems with the local decorative armies and "militias" are much less, yet the Polish army is stronger.
    In general, you exaggerate the colors and overestimate the possible negative consequences.
    And most importantly.

    One can respect the choice of the Belarusian brothers who do not want the endless rule of President Lukashenko.

    Of course, it is necessary to respect "the choice of the Belarusian brothers who do not want the endless rule of President Lukashenko," but what you call the people's choice is the result of the activities of Western special services and NGOs. Many are not happy with Lukashenka, but this does not mean at all that the choice of the Belarusians is to join NATO and break off relations with Russia. It is necessary to clearly distinguish where the will of the people is, and where the will of the "West" is dictated. The task of Russia is to prevent the coming to power of the pro-Western opposition, raised by "partners" about the connivance and indulgence of Lukashenka. Political and economic reforms are already an internal affair of the Belarusians.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 25 August 2020 08: 15
      -3
      Quote: 123
      However, you overestimate them.

      Who are the judges?
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 25 August 2020 11: 35
        0
        Who are the judges?

        In this particular case, readers.
    2. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 25 August 2020 08: 18
      -5
      Quote: 123
      Of course, it is necessary to respect "the choice of the Belarusian brothers who do not want the endless rule of President Lukashenko," but what you call the people's choice is the result of the activities of Western special services and NGOs. Many are not happy with Lukashenka, but this does not mean at all that the choice of the Belarusians is to join NATO and break off relations with Russia.

      By the way, I didn't say that. And you do not speak for Belarusians either.
      In Ukraine, by the way, not everyone was against Russia 6 years ago. Now what?
      1. Dear sofa expert. 25 August 2020 10: 52
        0
        In Ukraine, by the way, not everyone was against Russia 6 years ago. Now what?

        Now what?
        80% of Belarusians officially voted for Lukashenka. As long as there are no other numbers, 123 is right when it says:

        .... what you call the people's choice is the result of the activities of Western intelligence services and NGOs. Many are dissatisfied with Lukashenka, but this does not mean at all that the choice of the Belarusians is to join NATO and break off relations with Russia. It is necessary to clearly distinguish where the will of the people is, and where the will of the "West" is dictated. The task of Russia is to prevent the coming to power of the pro-Western opposition, raised by "partners" about the connivance and indulgence of Lukashenko. Political and economic reforms are already an internal affair of the Belarusians.
      2. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 25 August 2020 11: 43
        0
        By the way, I didn't say that. And you do not speak for Belarusians either.

        Indeed, they did not speak directly. This conclusion suggests itself. You list the "terrible consequences" of the turn to the West, then talk about the choice of the people, which we must respect. If this can be understood differently, enlighten what you mean.
        I'm not trying to speak for Belarusians, I repeat:

        Political and economic reforms are already an internal affair of the Belarusians.

        In Ukraine, by the way, not everyone was against Russia 6 years ago. Now what?

        So be honest with your readers, tell them directly about the aggressive and organized minority, which, with the support from abroad, staged a coup, and do not broadcast about the people's choice.
      3. bear040 Offline bear040
        bear040 25 August 2020 19: 24
        +4
        Everything that happened in Ukraine, because there were those who were against the Russian Federation and those who were not for the Russian Federation. They would be in favor of good relations with the Russian Federation, they would not allow the Banderaites to come to power, but in fact, they were not against the Nazis, they did not care, or they approved of what was happening. As a result, we have today's Ukraine, where everyone pays taxes on the ATO and everyone is happy with everything. Would not suit, would go out into the streets, and so everyone is at home, on sofas.
  2. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 24 August 2020 13: 07
    0
    The example of Ukraine is before everyone's eyes. And you still can't explain it to the enemies of Russia, or to those hit against the joint. They will give a hundred reasons and examples that this is not critical.
    1. King3214 Offline King3214
      King3214 (Sergius) 24 August 2020 13: 50
      +1
      And what's so terrible will happen to Russia?
      You'd better think about how long and in what form Belarus will exist.
  3. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 24 August 2020 13: 19
    +2
    The radar station moved from Latvia to Belarusian Baranovichi, from Azerbaijan to Armavir

    If Azeri traders were forced to move to Baku markets in exchange for withdrawing the radar station from Azerbaijan, it would still stand in its place in Azerbaijan. If someone confuses their own wool with the state one, it is not in Russia's favor. It is the same with Belarus and Ukraine. You should always have a method of influencing "Kostya Saprykin". It’s worth learning from the Americans.
  4. King3214 Offline King3214
    King3214 (Sergius) 24 August 2020 13: 49
    +1
    It will be unpleasant for Russia, but in Belarus it will be very poor.
  5. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 24 August 2020 14: 01
    0
    Yes, that's right, in the comments, the media have repeatedly stated that any infrastructure there is not particularly needed.

    Therefore, the main dangers are political: the population may not like the economic downturn and the added zeroes in the elections. Here's the time, and they want "justice".

    And with the military dangers, the move has been worked out: somewhere new Crimea in Belarus (it would be necessary to look after a place with beaches), and new republics that do not want the "Maidan".
    Fortunately, according to the latest news, many old volunteers live and live in Russia, and are just waiting in the wings. Starting from army commanders and heads of government, and to ordinary soldiers.
  6. bear040 Offline bear040
    bear040 25 August 2020 19: 19
    +4
    I have to disagree with Mr. Marzhetsky, and here's why:
    1) All military facilities of the Russian Federation on the territory of the Republic of Belarus have already been duplicated by new systems located on the territory of the Russian Federation.
    2) The benefit of the Russian Federation from the Republic of Belarus can be only if the Republic of Belarus becomes part of the Russian Federation, otherwise the Republic of Belarus will not help Russia, once again starting a sickening chatter about its rights, independence and multi-vector nature.
    3) The stability of Kaliningrad directly depends on the Kremlin's determination to defend it. If the Kremlin demonstrates its determination to defend Kaliningrad by any forces and means, its readiness to go to the end, no one will dare to encroach on Kaliningrad, but after encroaching, it will wash itself with its own blood and quickly clog into the hole from which it got out, if it still exists by that time. or give up the ends.
  7. marciz Offline marciz
    marciz (Stas) 31 August 2020 03: 46
    0
    Yes, give up Belarus too, for healthy and bad !!! You lost 50% of this confrontation a few years ago, when Brother Louis was selling diesel fuel to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (fucking collective farmer)), then it was necessary to quietly change it, but he resisted, and now the very thing is to give it up to be torn apart by the opposition, he deserved it! !!! Are you going to collect all the idiots in Russia !?