"Good news" for Turkey could mean defeat for Gazprom in Southern Europe


Another very bad one came from Turkey news for Gazprom. According to President Erdogan, literally in 3 years Ankara will not need supplies "from third countries", since it has discovered giant gas fields in the Black Sea. How should you treat such messages?


On the eve, the Turkish president delighted the population of his country with a "historical event":

We have discovered the largest natural gas field in the history of the country in the Black Sea. The volumes are 320 billion cubic meters. We plan to deliver it to our citizens by 2023.

Ankara is rubbing its hands as it has to spend about $ 40 billion every year on imports of this energy carrier. The Turks buy Russian, Iranian, Azerbaijani gas, as well as LNG, which is now very cheap due to the unique market conditions. The emergence of their own large deposits promises big problems for suppliers. We are most interested in Gazprom's positions, which are staggering more and more. Russia supplies gas to Turkey via two pipelines, Blue Stream and Turkish Stream, with volumes falling from year to year. This is influenced by a whole complex of reasons.

At first, this country has been in recession for several years now, the exchange rate of the national currency has dropped by 30%. Added problems to the economy and the coronavirus pandemic. Gas is no longer needed in the previous volumes.

Secondly, because of the same COVID-19, the overall demand for "blue fuel" has dropped worldwide, and because of its surplus, the prices for it have also dropped. It turned out to be even cheaper to buy LNG than to pump gas through a pipe.

Thirdly, if you wish, you can see and political component in reducing the volume of imports from Russia: Ankara is extremely unhappy with the fact that Moscow is on the opposite side in two conflicts at once - in Syria and Libya.

As a result, in 2020 Gazprom dropped to fifth place from the position of the largest supplier to Turkey. Already, some experts say that it is time to stop the Blue Stream and be content with just one thread of the Turkish. However, after the "good news" from President Erdogan, not only the future of Russian gas in the Turkish market becomes questionable, but also the prospect of Ankara becoming a direct competitor to the Kremlin in the southern European market as a new supplier. It is reported that the deposit was discovered in the Black Sea at the Danube-1 site, which is not far from the coast of Romania and Bulgaria. This means that Turkey can theoretically not only cover its internal needs, but also supply gas to these countries, as well as to neighboring Greece.

This is extremely bad news for the domestic monopolist. However, some experts urge not to bury the state corporation ahead of time. They point out that it will be possible to find out for certain the volumes of reserves in discovered fields only after verification by independent auditing companies, and it is still premature to believe Erdogan about 320 billion cubic meters. There are also questions about the profitability of production. The Black Sea shelf is a deep-water one, therefore the commercial operation of such wells is quite expensive, and the produced gas may turn out to be uncompetitive with respect to the same LNG. That is, Turkey will be able to meet its needs, if necessary, but it is too early to talk about export as a successful business.

Finally, attention is drawn to the timing of the “good news”. Turkey is actively advancing in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean, converting Christian churches into mosques. The "good news" on gas could be part of a publicity campaign to raise the spirits of the people. In addition, a number of contracts with Gazprom will soon expire, and the status of an “energy independent state” will help Ankara in negotiations with Russia and other suppliers regarding further terms.
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  1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 22 August 2020 12: 14
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    Such a development of events was to be expected. Here are just the "effective managers" of GAZPROM climbed to the south, where it is full of hydrocarbons, starting from Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and nearby are Arab "Klondikes". What motivated, laying the second pipeline, that only they can lay and intended to speculate, buy gas into their pipes. So superfluous in business are quickly swept aside, so GAZPROM becomes superfluous on the Turkish coast, especially after the discoveries of world-class hydrocarbons in the Levant waters, so GAZPROM shares in the south should strive for a plinth ... Fat years for GAZPROM and its managers are coming to an end, and they seems to have long "lost their scent" in all directions and with all the consequences ...
    1. Bakht Offline
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 22 August 2020 13: 19
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      What do you mean "should have been expected"? Can anyone predict the discovery of new deposits? So far, only Stalin has succeeded

      Shortly before the end of the Great Patriotic War, Stalin asked Nikolai Baibakov, People's Commissar of the Oil Industry of the USSR, not to delay the discovery of new oil fields. He replied that at the moment it was impossible, to which the marshal said: "There will be oil, there will be Baibakov, there will be no oil, there will be no Baibakov!" Needless to say, after a while oilmen really discovered deposits in the Tatar ASSR and Bashkiria.

      Of course, the news is not very good for Gazprom. But knowing the buyback is quite difficult. Not only will Turkey be able to provide itself with gas, it will also be able to replace GasProm in Southeast Europe. One must be able to take advantage of the situation. If for Turkey supplies from Russia are becoming superfluous, then for Russia an alliance with Turkey is becoming superfluous. The economy is not just about gas. But also on the stability of Erdogan's regime. So Lukashenka decided to play independence and buy oil in the States, and problems began.
      But, of course, for Russia (GazProm is just a gasket) problems will appear. The whole game in the Middle East must be redrawn. And Europe will find out what "gas blackmail" is. Not mythical Russian, but real Turkish.
    2. Polente the Wanderer 23 August 2020 10: 23
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      Gazprom will make up for losses in Russia - either by raising gas prices, or by subsidizing from the state, that is, through our taxes, both direct and indirect (purchases, sales).
  2. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 22 August 2020 13: 10
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    - Yes, personally, I am simply no longer interested in writing about the failed Gazprom; about its colossally unprofitable pipelines; about the traps that he created for himself and climbed into them himself ...
    - Well, how much I personally have already written about it !!!!! - As many as 1,5 - 2 years ...
    - And now, finally it becomes one of the modern news-surprises ...
    - Ah ... - who could have guessed that ... - What a surprise !!! What a sensation !!!
    - And how many minuses, insults and all kinds of negativity poured out on me from the so-called "wisest" ... - This can be measured only in megabytes ... - How generous and irrepressible is human stupidity !!! - Well, well ... - thanks ...
    - As for all sorts of Erdogan's insinuations; then he is absolutely free in his similar works ...
    - What can you do ... - Erdogan simply turned out to be too tough for Moscow (with its secret and wise thoughts) ... - And ... if this whole Gazprom swindle with the Turkish stream has already been recognized ... - as a failed adventure; then from the other "partner relations" of Russia and Turkey ...- Moscow is still hoping for itself ...- to benefit for itself ... -But it is already clear to the whole world that wherever you sit on Erdogan ...- there you will get off. .. - Moreover ... - today Erdogan is already making attempts to mount Russia on horseback ... - And we cannot say that he will not succeed ...
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 22 August 2020 20: 30
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      Quote: gorenina91
      Yes, personally, I am simply no longer interested in writing about the failed Gazprom;

      Gee-gee-gee! Write about successful Enron. After all, President Bush himself was one of the important shareholders.
      However, Poland also hoped for a trillion cubic meters of gas in its bowels ...
  3. Nick Offline
    Nick (Nikolai) 22 August 2020 13: 32
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    The author's competence has not increased at all. Gazprom laid the pipe not to Turkey, but through Turkey to Europe. Gas sales to Turkey are proceeding in parallel. And by the way, today's energy market may change tomorrow, while pipelines are being built for decades.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 22 August 2020 14: 18
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      Replica. Through Turkey, or rather the Dardanelles, the entire gas-oil south is trying to lay pipelines (starting from Nabuco, etc.) to Europe, GAZPROM climbed into this crowd with long gas pipelines from the north, when there is too much gas in this region ... "managers (Miller, etc.) of Gazprom, as in" Tula with its own samovar "...
      1. Bakht Offline
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 22 August 2020 14: 32
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        I understand that the Russian site discusses the problems of Russia. But her neighbors too.
        Before throwing stones at GazProm, it would be nice to take a broader look at the situation. Seven states, mainly European, have invested $ 38 billion in the Southern Gas Corridor. Gazprom invested 7 billion in Turkish Stream. Couldn't Europe have predicted that Turkey is full of gas?
        The discovery of a field off the coast of Turkey is an ABSOLUTELY unpredictable thing. Found and okay. But Turkey does not really need TANAP either. Turkey and Azerbaijan have invested almost $ 10 billion in it. The new field poses problems not only for Russia. But it takes a couple of years before it goes into production.
        1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
          Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 22 August 2020 20: 34
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          Quote: Bakht
          Couldn't Europe have predicted that Turkey is full of gas?

          - Doctor, I have problems with women.
          - And how old are you?
          - 80.
          - Well, it's usually at this age.
          - And the neighbor is the same, but he says that everything is all right with him!
          - Who forbids you to speak?

          So it is with this gas in Turkey. You can say anything. And to take is quite another.
          1. Bakht Offline
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 22 August 2020 20: 58
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            Much has been written here. And including me. But then I decided it was undignified. And I decided to see what exactly and where they found.
            So - a field on the border of the zones of Romania and Turkey. Why not Bulgaria? But because the field is almost in the middle of the sea. The depth is about 2 km. And another 1,5 km to drill. There is technology, in principle, this is not a problem. But find investors ...
            Compare with Shah Deniz in the Caspian Sea. This is the resource base for the TANAP gas pipeline. Shah Deniz reserves are estimated at 1,5 trillion cubic meters. Turkish field of 320 million cubic meters (although Erdogan says about 800 million, but no one believes him).
            The depths in the Caspian are less than 100 meters. There are almost 2000 meters on the Black Sea.
            Shah Deniz reached its design capacity for almost 10 years. I don’t think the Turks will manage faster.
            The approximate cost of the field development is estimated at $ 2-3 billion. I do not believe. There will be much more. But I will not argue. Erdogan is already looking for investors. So far, no one is interested. With ready gas pipelines and unstable gas prices, nobody (NOBODY) will invest in this project.
            ----
            By the way, this is just for those who drown for spot prices and inefficiency of long-term contracts. At a cost of $ 2-3 billion, investors should be SURE that this project will pay off. So we need a long-term contract for 10-20 years. Oil price pegged. But Stockholm and Europe killed the very idea of ​​a long-term contract.
            -----
            Conclusion - Erdogan is bluffing ... If he finds investors, then let them develop the field.
            1. Bakht Offline
              Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 22 August 2020 21: 00
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              Addition. Romania is already developing a gas field in the Black Sea. Operators: Romanian Oil and Gas Company and Exxon. Erdogan found his field just 100 km from the Romanian platform. Oh, something is wrong in our world. I'm waiting for the reaction from Romania and Exxon. winked
    2. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 22 August 2020 18: 58
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      Quote: Nick
      The author's competence has not increased at all.

      Well, who would say ...
    3. Polente the Wanderer 23 August 2020 10: 27
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      Who owns the blue stream in Turkey? If Turkey produces gas itself and sells it to Europe, will it tolerate a competitor in the person of Gazprom?
    4. Polente the Wanderer 23 August 2020 10: 36
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      Parallel if there are two pipes. And in this case, it seems, there is only one pipe, from which the Turks receive part, and the rest goes to the border with Greece.
      Will it be profitable for Turkey to simply transit gas through its territory if they themselves stop taking it?
      And how much would they want to get just for transit?
  4. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 22 August 2020 15: 29
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    You all are just underdoing.
    First, how everything will turn out remains to be seen.
    Secondly, even in the unsuccessful first half of 1, Gazprom raised the premiums to the management almost 2020 times.
    Losses - to you (gas tariffs have already begun to be raised), profits - to them.
  5. Cucumbers Offline
    Cucumbers (Cucumbers) 22 August 2020 18: 13
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    If Erdogan really found large reserves of gas, this still does not change anything. While it will start to be produced (if they start, or maybe there is no gas), Gazprom may beat off its grandmother by the pipes. But you will have to be able to get it, anything can happen here. I'm wondering what we'll do if they don't like the nuclear power plant? Construction is underway for Russian money. I came across the Turks, they know how to bargain, rascals.
  6. GRF Offline
    GRF 22 August 2020 18: 13
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    Will Turkey have graters with Romania and Bulgaria?
  7. 123 Offline
    123 (123) 22 August 2020 19: 47
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    Not a single gas ...

    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 22 August 2020 20: 37
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      Quote: 123
      Not a single gas ...

      This music will last forever ... sad
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) 22 August 2020 21: 16
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        This music will last forever ...

        It may very well be. If everything works fine, it will last forever.
  8. KARAKURT21 Offline
    KARAKURT21 (KARAKURT21) 23 August 2020 00: 07
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    but it is still premature to believe Erdogan about 320 billion cubic meters.

    Don't believe it, he lied. There are not 320, but as many as 800 billion cubic meters. wink
    1. Bakht Offline
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 23 August 2020 00: 35
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      Do not believe it categorically. It is not known how many. One well to judge the reserves ????
      In 1995-96. I worked in search operations at Shah Deniz. I remember very well the American handlers.

      You have to be blind not to see the huge oil reserves here.

      The drilling resulted in huge gas reserves.