Three reasons why Turkey intends to keep Idlib for itself

Two significant events took place in Syria a few days ago. Russian Major General Vyacheslav Gladkikh and the commander of the defense of the city of Al-Meyadin Muhammad Taysar Az-Zahir, who was with him, were killed in the explosion of the car. Also, the MQ-9 Reaper US Air Force strike drone was shot down by the Turkish allies. Coincidence? Perhaps, however, American analysts think otherwise.

The Military Watch specialized edition suggests that these can be links of the same chain:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who chaired a July 23 meeting of the Supreme Military Council, promised that the Turkish occupation of northern Syria would continue.

In other words, military experts from the United States link these blatant terrorist attacks against the Americans and Russians, who are the main rivals of the Turks in the SAR, with the determination of the future status of the Idlib they occupied. President Erdogan said that the Turkish army will remain in this northern province as long as the Baath party is in power in Damascus. That is, indefinitely, and there is nothing more permanent than temporary. In fact, everything is much more complicated. By occupying parts of Idlib and Aleppo, Ankara solves a whole range of tasks:

At first, a buffer zone is created, covering Turkey from the possible appearance of an independent Kurdistan on the territory of the SAR and Iraq. The Turks are systematically squeezing the Kurds out of Afrin: four years ago they numbered 97% there, today - only 34,8%. Instead of them, Turkomans who are religiously and ethnically close to the Turks move there. If you call a spade a spade, there is a cleanup and replacement of the population with more loyal to Ankara.

SecondlyTurkey gained de facto control over northern Syria's most fertile and water-rich lands. Now in this area, large investments are being made in growing wheat. Thus, Ankara will reduce its dependence on imports of Russian grain, and over time will begin to compete with Moscow in this market.

ThirdlyPresident Erdogan satisfied the ambitions of his population, among which neo-Ottoman sentiments are very popular. The Turks entered their former province of Libya, redrawn the Eastern Mediterranean sea shelf in their favor, and are looking closely at the Greek islands and African resources. The actual annexation of northern Syria fits well with this scheme. Even the United States considered the creation of the Peace Shield headquarters to coordinate all military operations in the SAR as a kind of temporary (permanent) occupation administration.

The assassination of a high-ranking Russian military man and the attack on the American UAV can serve as signals to the Kremlin and Washington that Ankara considers this land its own and will not tolerate anyone else on it: neither "partners" nor "allies." The question remains, what will be the further fate of the occupied Syrian provinces?

It can be assumed that in order to avoid sanctions, Turkey will not annex these territories to its composition according to the “Crimean scenario”. Much more realistic is the "Cypriot scenario" when, after the military intervention on the island, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was created to protect ethnic Turks. Except for Ankara itself, no one recognized it, but this does not prevent it from perfectly existing and claiming its share of the sea shelf, rich in natural resources.
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  1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 21 August 2020 15: 42
    Three reasons why Turkey intends to keep Idlib for itself

    - Yes, there are plenty of reasons ... - and they are all weighty ... - But, on the side, all these reasons ...
    - The main reason lies in the fable of I.A. Krylov:

    You are to blame for the fact that I want to eat

    - And Erdogan never bothers ... - in search of reasons ... - He just takes what he wants; and does whatever he pleases ...
    - And he doesn't care at all ...
  2. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 22 August 2020 11: 51
    I disagree with the author about the plans and actions of Turkey against the Russian Federation. The Turks really need the support of the Russian Federation, because the United States is in fact opposed to Turkey, supporting the Kurds and their newly created statehood. The confrontation in Libya adds France to its enemies, not to mention Egypt and the Saudis ... Today, Turkey needs strong allies more than ever, and the Russian Federation is very desirable. For the Russian Federation, Turkey is also a situational ally, like Iran, so act in such an alliance, and only then political, and not only, victories in the Middle East are possible ... That the ruling parties in the Russian Federation create secret agreements with Israel becomes an obstacle in the development of this a promising union for today ...