What can save the Belarusian industry from complete collapse

For a week and a half, the Belarusian brothers cannot calm down after the counting of votes in the presidential elections. Fatigue from the irremovable Alexander Lukashenko and resentment for his "incredible" 80,08% of the votes force them to act not quite rationally, harming themselves and their country. In a few weeks, the consequences of the shutdown of Belarusian mines and enterprises will become clear. I would like to call the fraternal people to reason and think about what awaits them in the event that Mrs. Tikhanovskaya comes to power.

And all the delights of the "Ukrainian way" await them, the results of which can be observed for the last 6 years in Nezalezhnaya. A break with Russia will have truly catastrophic consequences for the fraternal people. Belarusian agriculture is export-oriented primarily to our market. If the opposition comes to power, an exchange of mutual sanctions will inevitably begin, and access for Belarus will eventually be closed. In Europe, the products of Belarusian farmers are simply not needed by anyone, there is already fierce internal competition.

Belaruskali holds about 20% of the world market. The export of fertilizers is the only fully autonomous source of dollars for Minsk, since it depends on Moscow for oil products. In the potash market, Belarus is desperately dumping, knocking down the price of competitors from Canada and Russia. Let's imagine that Mrs. Tikhanovskaya actually came to power, and her team began privatization. After all, “Belaruskali” will be the first to go on sale, and Western corporations will buy it at a “partner discount”. And then the mines will simply be closed in order to raise fertilizer prices. And the brothers-Belarusians will go knocking their helmets on the asphalt.

The same can be said about the industrial cluster, which Lukashenka managed to keep intact. MAZ and BelAZ are alive as long as they have access to the Russian and EAEU markets. After the privatization by Western TNCs, it will be easier for them to “optimize” these car production facilities, or even close them altogether. The vacant niche will be occupied by Caterpillar, Komatsu and John Deere.

Today the citizens of Belarus are dissatisfied with Alexander Grigorievich for a noticeable decline in the standard of living. But they do not yet understand that if the opposition wins, they will have to expedite through our "nineties" with massive unemployment and impoverishment of the population. In 3-5 years, they themselves will recall with nostalgia the “stagnation” of the Lukashenka period. Are there any alternatives to this? Of course have.

Today Belarus finds itself between two fires. Most likely, it will no longer be able to maintain full state control over industry and resources. If pro-Western forces gain the upper hand in Minsk, a "big privatization" is inevitable, followed by the liquidation of industries competing with TNK products and the closure of mines. Defense enterprises working for the Russian and Chinese military-industrial complex will also go under the knife. If Belarus remains in the sphere of influence of Russia and begins to integrate in the format of the Union State, its prospects will be much better.

Yes, large domestic business will come to participate in the privatization processes, but the situation in our the economy is such that it is extremely profitable to preserve and modernize these industries. The Kremlin is objectively interested in import substitution and reducing dependence on Western of technologies and accessories. Unlike the pro-Western opposition, they will no longer be allowed to liquidate the Belarusian industry. Also, together, Moscow and Minsk will again be able to dictate their terms, for example, on the potash fertilizers market. Until 2013, the price of potash in Asia reached $ 1000 per ton, now Belarusians sell it for $ 220, which puts a spoke in the wheels of Russia and other suppliers. Cooperation between the two allied countries could bring prices back to a comfortable level.
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  1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 19 August 2020 13: 48
    Wah, right. We would sit on the couch and nod at the TV.
    Life would improve by itself.
    Consent, Presidency, Nationality.
  2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 19 August 2020 14: 29
    To save Belarus from the Maidan ... a strike of gas station workers. To everyone who wants to refuel their car, the striking gas station workers popularly explain that they are joining the general strike and will not release gasoline and diesel fuel as a sign of solidarity! If most gas stations do this, then maybe the people will understand what they can expect after the Maidan? And Euromen are not used to walking on foot ...
  3. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 19 August 2020 16: 04
    What can save the Belarusian industry from complete collapse?

    When a child begins to be capricious and demanding, without knowing what. Smart parents, although they feel sorry for the child, will spank and put them in a corner. If you grow up and give a belt. Such issues are resolved when words do not help, only by force. The Chinese even used tanks. Therefore, Lukashenka should use the Chinese version. It won't work out peacefully. Or will the fate of Libya, Ukraine.
  4. Yuri Mikhailovsky (Yuri Mikhailovsky) 19 August 2020 18: 46
    Buy grinders urgently - cut factories for scrap metal. You will last six months. You can't go to Paris, the Ukrainians took it all apart. Then off the hats and bow to the masters ...
  5. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 19 August 2020 20: 55
    Just looked at Konstantin Semin: BELARUS. ANOTHER WEDDING
    Everyone is eager for privatization, especially the native Russian oligarchs. And the article indirectly confirms.

    How can potash fertilizers be sold now at 220 in the crisis (apparently, they allow to keep the price of a state enterprise), when the soul of the oligarchs longs for 1000 ??? 500% profit at least !!! Awesome comfortable area !!!
    Remember that both Lenin and the Americans spoke about such%?
    1. Bitter Offline Bitter
      Bitter 20 August 2020 01: 11
      Everyone is eager for privatization, especially the native Russian oligarchs.

      There is a thirst for privatization on all sides, rubbing their hands together. This is also the problem, the opposition is trying to promise to pull up "investors" with world names and move away from such a tasty morsel of Russian "heroes" capturing. But in any case, a sale followed by optimization and the closure of many enterprises is inevitable, as well as a general crisis of the entire infrastructure operating around large factories. And so on in a spiral. This is what today's Belarusian president is trying to avoid.
      But here it is possible and Chubais-style, whoever has time to turn around (bosses, functionaries and especially close rogues and "activists"), he may be a king, and the rest, therefore, simply did not fit into market relations - nothing personal. Let them go into business, quite democratic. wassat
      1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
        Bulanov (Vladimir) 20 August 2020 08: 51
        And where is the guarantee that, if something happens, the Americans will not squeeze out Belaruskali from Russian capitalists, as they squeezed aluminum from Deripaska? And no Chubais helped him ...
        1. Bitter Offline Bitter
          Bitter 20 August 2020 09: 24
          And where is the guarantee ..

          Yes, there is no guarantee, they can even hand it over to their “partners” as a “sacrifice” so that they will not be touched yet.

          no Chubais

          I cited Chubais not as an assistant, but rather as an example of the "successful" privatization of the national economy and the effective squeezing of resources belonging to society into the private pockets of individual rogues.
    2. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 20 August 2020 08: 07
      Quote: Sergey Latyshev
      Just looked at Konstantin Semin: BELARUS. ANOTHER WEDDING
      Everyone is eager for privatization, especially the native Russian oligarchs. And the article indirectly confirms.

      Yes, he did a good program.
      1. Vladimir_ Voronov (Vladimir) 20 August 2020 10: 56
        Sergey, you did it objectively too. (No irony)
  6. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
    Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) 20 August 2020 00: 51
    You do not understand the state and philosophy of the protesters in Belarus. They themselves declare not to be compared with the Ukrainians, and they, like, will be different. They even believe in nonsense that Tikhanovskaya will give up power and hold new re-elections soon. And for the West, they are even more friends than anyone else, and in the future they will be given preference in washing closets over even Ukrainians when the border is opened in the future.
    1. Bitter Offline Bitter
      Bitter 20 August 2020 09: 35
      their type will be different.

      If so, it will be differently. The country is smaller than Ukraine and all processes will go much faster and several times tougher. And the road to the EU will be endlessly long and thorny.
      1. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
        Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) 20 August 2020 21: 10
        If only in this sense, then yes!
  7. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 20 August 2020 16: 17
    I am afraid that it is no longer possible to save the state economy. She fell under the privatizers' rink. From the West to China itself.