Why Power of Siberia is losing importance for China


Gazprom is facing new problems, this time in the eastern direction. China, which a few years ago was considered as an alternative to the European sales market, is actively increasing its own production and import of LNG. At the same time, the Russian monopolist is being squeezed by the Russian competitor Novatek.


Last year, the inauguration of the widely advertised Power of Siberia gas pipeline took place, which was supposed to supply China with 38 billion cubic meters of "blue fuel" as it reached its design capacity. The main markets for it are the north, east and north-east of China. The cost of the project has gradually increased from 800 billion rubles to 1,1 trillion. The grand launch took place on December 2, 2019.

However, a serious scandal occurred a few months ago. The press got information from a certain "secret report" that serious mistakes were made during geological exploration and subsequent drilling. Because of this, the real reserves of the Chayandinskoye field turned out to be significantly less than predicted, dozens of wells are not able to reach the design level, some are simply "dry". If this data is correct, Gazprom simply cannot meet its $ 400 billion contractual obligations to the discerning Chinese.

An indirect confirmation of this sad information can be considered the fact that the people responsible for the development of the Chayandinskoye field were fired from the corporation, and the gas pipeline is really only partially filled. In addition, without waiting for the signing of a contract with Beijing, Gazprom hastily started design and exploration work on the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline, which is supposed to exploit well-researched fields in Western Siberia. It is believed that a bridge could be built between the two Forces to compensate for the supplies through the first pipeline.

All this is very sad, but it only confirms doubts about the professional level of some highly paid top managers of domestic state corporations. The aforementioned "secret report" stated that the head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, was aware of the problems, but set the task to enter the Chinese market at all costs. As you can see, now this hasty decision is going sideways for the country.
As for the positions of the monopolist in China, they are gradually beginning to shake.

At firstChina is actively increasing its LNG imports, which are cheaper than ever today. For example, at the receiving terminal of Zhoushan, work is underway to increase its capacity by three times; from it in the direction of the city of Ningbo, an 81 km long underwater gas pipeline Yongzhou is being built. By the way, on the LNG market the state-owned Gazprom is actively pushing the Russian private Novatek of Mr. Mikhelson with his Yamal LNG projects and the promising Arctic LNG-2.

SecondlyBeijing is just as active in developing its own gas reserves. By the way, in terms of shale gas reserves, the Celestial Empire is in first place in the world, in coal bed methane (CBM) - in third place. The main challenge is that Chinese oil shale is difficult to recover, and its development requires the most advanced of technologies... China encourages the development of its own resources in every possible way: the tax on the extraction of "shale" has been reduced by 30%, a program of state subsidies has been introduced. Not relying only on their own strengths, the Chinese allowed foreign companies to develop.

All this has already yielded serious results. By the end of the year, PetroChina plans to increase oil shale production to 12 billion cubic meters, and Sinopec - to 7,5 billion cubic meters. Domestic production in China is growing and by the end of 2020, according to their own estimates, it can range from 181,5 to 187,5 billion cubic meters, and in just five years another 54 billion can be added to this figure. These are very impressive numbers.

Taken together, this means that Gazprom's energy projects are gradually beginning to turn into "reserve" gas pipelines for the Celestial Empire, capable of insuring against aggravation of relations with the United States and blockade of LNG supplies by sea.
Used photos: http://kremlin.ru/
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15 comments
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  1. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 15 August 2020 11: 42
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    Why Power of Siberia is losing importance for China

    - But why does he lose ...
    - Soon ... apparently ... China will start at exorbitant prices to supply its gas to ... to ... to Russia, all through the same Power of Siberia pipeline ... -So this pipe will still be useful to China and .. and Russia ... - Such ... brother ... business ...
  2. 123 Offline
    123 (123) 15 August 2020 12: 43
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    New "analytics"? smile

    The Power of Siberia is becoming even more important for China.
    Firstly, China is increasing its gas consumption and it will not do with LNG alone.
    Secondly, our own gas and coal production does not cover the growing needs, there is a need for the construction of Power of Siberia-2. In addition, they are trying to reduce the share of coal, ecology, you know ...

    In its quest for a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system, the Chinese government has set itself the goal of making natural gas the third-largest source of energy supply after coal and oil, with a 10% share of the fuel mix by 2020 and 15% by 2030. against 7,8% in 2018

    What kind of coal are you talking about?

    All this has already yielded serious results. By the end of the year, PetroChina plans to increase oil shale production to 12 billion cubic meters, and Sinopec - to 7,5 billion cubic meters. Domestic production in China is growing and by the end of 2020, according to their own estimates, it can range from 181,5 to 187,5 billion cubic meters, and in just five years another 54 billion can be added to this figure. These are very impressive numbers.

    You appreciated the production, but the needs were not honored? A drop in gas demand is not expected; rather, on the contrary.

    According to French experts, gas demand could rise to 600 billion cubic meters. m by 2030 from 280 billion cubic meters. m in 2018

    https://oilcapital.ru/article/general/24-09-2019/gazovyy-rynok-kitaya-riski-na-sredne-i-dolgosrochnuyu-perspektivu

    Even if China reduces gas imports, why should cheaper Russian gas fall under the cut, and not expensive LNG? To maintain the author's reputation as a great analyst?

    Taken together, this means that Gazprom's energy projects are gradually beginning to turn into "reserve" gas pipelines for the Celestial Empire, capable of insuring against aggravation of relations with the United States and blockade of LNG supplies by sea.

    Taken together, this means that the analysis of the situation has not been carried out and wishful thinking.
    1. vladimir smirnov_7 (vladimir smirnov) 16 August 2020 17: 07
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      Read the contract for 30 years, it is called (take or pay). And he's signed for 30 years.
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) 16 August 2020 19: 15
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        read the contract for 30 years, it is called (take or pay). And he's signed for 30 years.

        What is this for? Thought did not understand. request
        hi
  3. The comment was deleted.
  4. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 15 August 2020 15: 29
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    Gazprom has not yet flown into the pipeline. Unlike dozens of American companies with comparable capitalization.
    And China will swallow everything. Because this is the United States, all of Europe, Russia - less in terms of population and trade (not to be confused with financial speculation). Now for the Chinese market there is a sickly kipish. Trump dreams of making the United States a gas station in China and supplying kosher American hamburgers there. Europeans who slept through their everyday life - turbines and other industrial equipment.
    And we don't need much. A little gas (only 5% of Russian consumption), a little bread - and buying smartphones and running shoes to balance the vehicle is enough.
    Sowing insecurity and feelings of inferiority is still unnecessary. The site is not promoted enough to be read by hamsters with immature brains.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 16 August 2020 13: 45
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      Gazprom will not fly into the pipe, shaking out the last penny from the pocket of Russians .. This is Russia for Gazprom and other figures, that the received billions are divided and sent abroad to foreign banks, a cash cow, and will be milked until it stops until it dies, and after that , will hurry away, everything is prepared .......
      1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
        Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 16 August 2020 14: 02
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        Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
        and after that, they will hurry away, everything is prepared.

        You are terribly far from of Russia reality. The current Russian-Indians have nowhere to run - they scalp in Cyprus or New Zealand. Until the last dollar. For the white Sahibs got hungry for 5 years.
        1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 16 August 2020 14: 44
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          Do not worry about them (those are mainly Jews), there are a lot of Jewish diasporas in the world, with their money they will shelter and savor what we see in Israel, even murderers with valid sentences, not like thieves (Nevzlin, etc. ) sheltered and comfortably arranged, even in the business there they are spinning ...
          1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
            Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 17 August 2020 14: 04
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            Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
            even murderers with valid sentences, not like thieves

            Well, so the beggars ran away. And from the rich Rousseau-Indians at least 100 million - and once enough for the Congressmen to have dinner.
            1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 17 August 2020 16: 27
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              Friedman, Aven, Prokhorov, Vekselberg, Abramovich, Rotenbergs ... billionaires, not millionaires (the Forbes list is in the hands of the richest). For information, the British government is in the hands of the Jewish community of England, the Jews are in the majority in the House of Perov, Churchill himself was of Jewish maternal blood, etc. Russian millionaire thieves will be robbed over the hill, there are no Jews specifically ...
              1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
                Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 17 August 2020 17: 36
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                Of all those listed by you, only Abramovich is kosher. But he was blocked enough funds, which is not enough for Chelsea. Two years ago he gave a hint about the sale of the club - operations with assets were banned. So Abramovich now cannot sell either a tank plant in the United States or a football club. Sit on the yacht and don't stick your head out.
                And this is with a Jew.
                1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 17 August 2020 17: 51
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                  Kosher, if it is Kosher, is another matter entirely. The main thing is to prove your nationality, so with the above and most of the richest problems will not arise. True, our crypto-Jews in Russia pretend to be Russians, in the Synagogue or in Israel as Jews. They hold Russia for their country of residence, and Israel for their historical Motherland, and the Motherland is more important, because all capital is being taken away from Russia ... You should clarify your knowledge, because you look somehow without understanding ...
  5. Ivan Dovgy Offline
    Ivan Dovgy (Ivanushka) 15 August 2020 22: 33
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    1,1 trillion rubles is amazing ...
  6. Nick Offline
    Nick (Nikolai) 16 August 2020 08: 16
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    Another speculation from the inventions of "analyst" Marzhetsky. fool
  7. Rashid116 Offline
    Rashid116 (Rashid) 17 August 2020 08: 00
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    Everyone attacked the author. Well, yes, he was the one who "fooled" the gas pipelines, not the efficient Jews. Someone just "saws" our common money. How many empty pipelines are there already? And all of them will not calm down, just to stir up the movement. In mechanical engineering, I started out as a supplier. If you steal, then the main thing is to sit down on some financial stream. You start to stir up the scheme and in the process you are no longer up to work))), don't care about the result, you gave it to anyone, you were covered. Moreover, in a lousy enterprise, as in our case, everyone is sitting on kickbacks and schemes. As a result, it would seem that a flourishing enterprise, which according to all laws cannot be unprofitable, is slowly blown away, and bankruptcy trustees enter. Am I making myself clear? Or are there still naive people left? I’m tired of reading about stupid officials and ineffective managers. Do you really think the dumbass can get through somewhere? In this case, and always it is a delicate calculation (sometimes insolently, they are not shy already, but what to be shy about, everyone knows and keeps silent). They also like to talk to us about mistakes, but as Comrade Stalin said: "Every mistake has a surname, name, patronymic." Don't be fooled, we are being bred again. And, as always, and this is the most offensive - our officials are ghouls. That's how they say: "with such friends ..."