Thin calculation: Germany explained why Putin will not interfere in the situation in Belarus

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The Russian president was one of the first to congratulate Lukashenko on winning the presidential race. But since then, Putin has not particularly voiced his plans in relation to the Republic of Belarus. Bild journalists talk about why the leader of the Russian Federation with a high degree of probability would prefer not to interfere in Belarusian affairs.

Moscow will support Lukashenka's regime as long as possible. Otherwise, Belarus is threatened by what Ukraine experienced in the recent past and is experiencing now - intervention by Russia. If the power of the Belarusian dictator ends, the Russian Federation will take steps against the new pro-Western government - Putin will have economic and power levers of pressure

- This opinion was expressed to the German edition by Claes Berends from the Center for the Study of Contemporary History of the Leibniz Association.



A similar position is adhered to by the Bulgarian expert - military journalist Ruslan Trad. In his opinion, the Russians will not allow Belarus to move towards the West. Moreover, it will not be necessary to keep Lukashenka in power - his overthrow by the people may become a convenient pretext for the invasion of the country by Russian troops.

But there are other opinions on this score. Thus, the British analyst and expert on the Russian Federation Sarah Hirst believes that Putin will not intervene in the situation:

This was already the case in Armenia at one time - Russia allowed a change of power there by demonstrators. Putin was inactive because he understood the need for any new government to establish contact with the Kremlin and to establish good-neighborly relations with Moscow. The same delicate calculation can be realized in relation to Belarus

- said Hirst in an interview with the German Bild.

Belarus, whoever is at the head of the state, will have to cooperate with Russia, because there is simply no other way.
8 comments
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  1. 123
    123
    +4
    14 August 2020 13: 41
    Belarus, whoever is at the head of the state, will have to cooperate with Russia, because there is simply no other way.

    Quite right, but we don't need the second Pashinyan. No. There, it seems, one of the candidates "left" for Russia?
    1. A.Lex
      A.Lex
      0
      15 August 2020 20: 45
      And who is it?
      1. 123
        123
        0
        15 August 2020 21: 26
        President of Armenia. He ran to rallies, now he sat in a chair, and now he tries to leave the CSTO, then he doesn't like the Russian troops, then he needs cheap gas. Well, as usual, the standard kit.
  2. Bulanov
    Bulanov
    +3
    14 August 2020 13: 44
    Better let it be explained in Germany - why they could annex the GDR, but Russia cannot Belarus?
    And let them explain why Western ambassadors put flowers at the place of death of a man who, according to media reports, tried to throw a bomb at the state police of Belarus, but it exploded in his hands. It turns out that they are in solidarity with him and support terrorist acts on the territory of Belarus? Maybe they are in solidarity with the terrorist attack against the Twin Towers in New York?
    1. A.Lex
      A.Lex
      0
      15 August 2020 20: 48
      Better let it be explained in Germany - why they could annex the GDR, but Russia cannot Belarus?

      I will correct you a little - on JOIN, and RECONNECT! For this will be the reunification of one people. After all, we do not consider the Komi, the Mordovians ... separate from the Russian people ?! They are one of us - they are part of us! So are the Belarusians!
  3. gorenina91
    gorenina91
    -6
    14 August 2020 14: 12
    Moscow will support Lukashenka's regime as long as possible. Otherwise, Belarus is threatened by what Ukraine experienced in the recent past and is experiencing now - intervention by Russia. If the power of the Belarusian dictator ends, the Russian Federation will take steps against the new pro-Western government - Putin will have at his disposal economic and power levers of pressure

    - Ha, I too ... - opened America ...
    - But still

    If the power of the Belarusian dictator ends, the Russian Federation will take steps against the new pro-Western government - Putin will have economic and power levers at his disposal

    - all this will be absolutely not enough ... - Putin already with "his levers" could not do anything ... - with a more stable situation in Belarus; and even more so now ... - and cannot do anything at all ...
    - Today there is a very serious exam for Putin ... - he will be able to take advantage of the situation right now by a strong-willed decision and, at the request of the brotherly Belarusian people, send troops to the territory of Belarus to restore constitutional order there ... that officially, as the head of state declared it ...
    - Now, if Putin does this, he can safely be nominated for another term ...
    - A .. if he starts to observe or starts to portray something with the help of "economic and other levers"; then he will soon receive the hatred of the entire simple Belarusian people and finally lose the support of the Russian ... - And a new presidential term will no longer shine for him ... - Khabarovsk has already "rang out" ... ... East ... - it will give little ...
    1. A.Lex
      A.Lex
      0
      15 August 2020 20: 50
      West is waiting for you, Ira, you can safely go there ... if everything is not comme il faut in the Russian Federation ... we are not holding you ...
  4. Besedin Sergey
    Besedin Sergey
    +1
    19 August 2020 08: 45
    There is another way, you don't have to go far for examples. The geopolitical significance of Minsk and Yerevan cannot be compared. Another failure of Russian foreign policy.