The West begins to hint at the "Yugoslav scenario" for Belarus

The intensity of the passions of street protest in Belarus has clearly subsided, the performances are becoming more and more sluggish, non-violent. In this regard, it is not so much the internal aspect as the foreign policy aspect that comes to the fore in the question of the hasty and unsuccessful "white maidan". The world must somehow react to what is happening in this country, and each of its parts has to do it in accordance with the principles it declares. Russia, China, most of the countries of the "post-Soviet space" have already made their minds and did it quite quickly.

But the so-called “collective West” with its “democratic values” is not to be envied in this situation - after a short game of silence, they began to make unusual attempts to openly interfere in other people's internal affairs. At the same time, it seems that the “luminaries of democracy” and its “pillars” on both sides of the ocean do not really understand how to actually proceed further. And what, in fact, are the options - both they and Alexander Grigorievich?

And we thought ...

Most of all, in this situation, it is touching that some Western policy today they try to “make big eyes” and raise their eyebrows in surprise: “But how is that? After all, he seems to have become civilized, domesticated? Aspired to Europe? And now such a horror! " This is all utter hypocrisy, of course. "Old Man", who spoke about "European values", caused homeric laughter in normal people - the hasty mask of an authoritarian ruler who was "democratizing" to please the neighbors did not suit him too much. Now this mask has been thrown somewhere under the feet of the riot policemen, who "put their minds" to those who decided that Alexander Grigorievich could be "taken unceremoniously." Not such was attacked!

And now what do you order the gentlemen from the European Union, whose delicate feelings are terribly wounded by the brutal videos from Minsk? What they were hoping for, keeping silent for a while, like a fish on ice, is absolutely incomprehensible. The fact that Lukashenka, fearing the "people's anger", will take and surrender? That Belarusian militiamen would rush to fraternize with protesters who are already preparing proscription lists for them? What will "dissolve by itself" somehow? In the end, it became simply indecent to ignore what was happening literally close by, and the West began to speak. In this case, the speech of German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas can be considered more than indicative, admitting with great sorrow that “hopes for the development of Belarus in the right direction” were brutally “dashed” by forceful actions against the protesters. Herr Maas immediately called on the entire European Union to unite in a single impulse and "take a common position regarding Minsk", which should be expressed in "the utmost increase in pressure on it." At the same time, the head of the German Foreign Ministry bitterly lamented about Lukashenka: "But we still removed the sanctions from him!" The treacherous cheat ...

The most irreconcilable (and most counterproductive) position was more than expected taken by the closest neighbors of Belarus, in their striving to "promote" and "defend democracy", which have recently been striving to surpass even the "Washington regional committee". Polish President Andrzej Duda, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, Latvian President Egils Levits and Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid came up with the idea of ​​giving Alexander Lukashenko a natural ultimatum. In their appeal, published on the official website of the head of the Polish state, these figures are not asking their Belarusian counterpart, but demanding from him absolutely impossible and unrealistic things. Such, for example, as "an immediate cessation of forceful actions against participants in street actions" (whatever they do). Immediate, again, “release of all detained protesters”, and “without further prosecution”. That is, without due process and without bringing those who deserve it to justice under the Law. The third point is generally the crown of the absurdity I have quoted. It says that Lukashenka should "start a dialogue with the people" right now (that is, with those who seek to overthrow him). For this, it is proposed to create a kind of "round table with the participation of representatives of the authorities and civil society." Following the example of Yanukovych, presumably, and with the same consequences ...

Moreover, insolent people also offer themselves, loved ones, in the role of mediators for "settling the situation", as well as (hold your breath!) "Strengthening the sovereignty and independence of Belarus." You see, they are ready to come to Minsk to teach everyone there wisdom. Well, and democracy, of course. This surreal passage is perfectly complemented by the most common tantrum staged on Twitter by the ex-Lithuanian president Dalia Grybauskas, who went down to calling Lukashenka “a bloody dictator who has no future on Belarusian soil”. And this, excuse me, is her decision?

Further development - options are possible

They did not continue to "pause" in Washington either. The head of the US Department of State Mike Pompeo, without further ado, offered a simple and elegant (as he sees it) solution: to cancel the already held presidential elections in Belarus and hold new - "democratic" ones with the participation of "serious international observers." There is no doubt that as such Mr. Pompeo would be best suited to a pair of motorized NATO divisions. However, the head of the State Department tried to make it clear to Lukashenka that “backward motion” with the expression of appropriate submissiveness is still possible, promising “to see how the situation in the country will develop in the near future”. But already now, Pompeo is frightening Minsk with the widest range of sanctions, and, above all, with exclusion from American oil supplies. Yes, exactly like the proverbial hedgehog ...

The point is that Lukashenka simply does not have a special choice about the “near” and even more distant future. He knocked down the current wave of protest, but there is a much more difficult task ahead of him: not to let the “Maidan” “sprout” and gain a foothold in the public life of Belarus and the consciousness of its inhabitants. What has spilled out onto the streets of Minsk and other cities in the last days and nights has not only aggressive “tops” who have tasted clubs and rubber bullets in full, but, which is much more dangerous, hidden roots, and, judging by the scale of what is happening, they are very deep and branched. Now they will need to be rooted out, not being afraid to get their hands dirty and, most importantly, not taking into account the reaction of the West, which, day is clear, will be extremely negative. One of the most concrete examples is the planned arrival of the US ambassador to Minsk, which was about to take place after a long break in full-fledged diplomatic relations between the two countries. If Lukashenka does this in the current conditions, he will literally have a full-fledged headquarters of the new "Maidan" close by, which will be much more difficult to cope with.

And other countries are not going to limit the range of dirty tricks prepared for the "dad", in which they "suddenly" again recognized the same "last dictator of Europe", by mere expressions of "deep concern". For example, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania Linas Linkevičius stated in a completely open text that his country is ready even now to welcome with open arms all Belarusian “Maidan people”, who are called “persons suffering from cruel treatment” there. In fact, this means organizing another snake nest on Lithuanian territory, the purpose of which will be to undermine the situation in the neighboring country - in addition to a similar nativity scene, which feels great in Poland and has shown its not weak effectiveness during the current mess. It will be possible to protect the country from the impact of such subversive centers, which will now begin to multiply along the Belarusian borders, like filthy mushrooms after a rain, only with extremely tough actions. If the local "siloviki" (of course, at the suggestion of Alexander Grigorievich) do not undertake such, then by the same token they will sign the verdict for him, for themselves, and for the country.

A new "Maidan", and in a much more organized, large-scale, aggressive and bloody version, will then only be a matter of time. Let me say (for those in doubt) that both the President of Belarus and many other representatives of the higher authorities there (including the heads of law enforcement agencies and "power" structures) today experience a completely sincere, not at all feigned shock from what is happening. Some two or three years ago, they were all firmly convinced that nothing like this was possible in principle! Believe me, that's exactly what happened. Now, having coped with the "impossible" that has befallen them and accepting the new reality, they all have to draw serious conclusions, revise many strategies and plans, and this will have to be done in a fairly limited time.

The West does not intend to play “handshake” with Lukashenka anymore and beckon him with even the most virtual “carrot”. From there, more and more distinct calls are heard, not so much for a whip, but almost for an ax. Take, for example, Radoslaw Sikorski, former Polish Foreign Minister and now a member of the European Parliament. He stated that while “punishing” the Belarusian authorities for “violence against protesters”, it is necessary “to leave the territory of sanctions and move to the competence of the International Criminal Court for responsible officials”. I wonder how Pan Sikorsky intends to drag Belarusian “siloviki” into the Hague trial? Could it be that they had occupied this country beforehand? It definitely smacks of a hint of Yugoslavia - while Lukashenka is already being predicted by some “the fate of Milosevic or Gaddafi”. And, by the way, there is some reason for such gloomy forecasts.

With Alexander Grigorievich will not work the number that worked perfectly, for example, with two Ukrainian presidents - Kuchma and Yanukovych. As far as is known, Lukashenka and his entourage simply do not have foreign assets, threatening to block or confiscate which, they could be productively blackmailed. There are no oligarchs in the country either, using whom or "persuading them to cooperate" by exactly the same methods, it would be possible to arrange a "Maidan" according to the Ukrainian scenario. Here, if the West decides to really go to the end, it will have to act extremely directly, roughly and tough. Yes, Brussels has already announced its readiness to introduce new economic sanctions (only Hungary is openly opposing them today), but what are the sanctions to the country and its leader, who lived under them for decades?

The West has finally decided on its attitude towards Lukashenka, and now it is only a matter of developing specific plans and methods for his elimination. Well, it's time for Alexander Grigorievich to decide on the choice of those who will help him avoid such a sad ending.
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  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 14 August 2020 10: 09
    Unfortunately, Lukashenka hasn't changed at all. Minsk has already demanded from Moscow to completely re-equip the Belarusian army. And free of charge (that is, for free).
    In return, he promises to protect the western direction from NATO encroachments. He's lying, of course.
    1. scidoc Offline scidoc
      scidoc (Boris) 14 August 2020 12: 49
      Belarus sold its S-300 air defense systems to the United States through Romania without Russia's consent. This is stated in an article published by the Vietnamese edition of DatViet on 13.08.2020. That is why Moscow refuses to supply modern weapons to Minsk, and wants to have its own military bases in Belarus.
    2. Alexey Sergeev Offline Alexey Sergeev
      Alexey Sergeev (Alexey Sergeev) 16 August 2020 10: 46
      He really wants to rule to death. And to hold on to power until the last Belarusian .. A lot speaks for large-scale falsifications, it seems that he believes that if the people do not understand that it is only necessary to vote back, then people need to "help". They are "foolish", and he is "dad".
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 16 August 2020 11: 42
        Lukashenka, of course, loves the authorities. He has a usefulness complex. But what is the alternative?
        According to Belarusian polls, 70% are against the dad and against the creation of a union state. They are in favor of close integration with the EU and the European association. This is neither bad nor good. It's just a fact.
        But the same polls show that 70% of Belarusians are in favor of maintaining current relations with Russia. That is, for subsidizing the Belarusian industry, open borders with Russia and the absence of customs duties.
        Let's go back a bit to November 2013. In Vilnius, regarding the European integration of Ukraine, Merkel clearly stated that this is impossible. You cannot be in the EU and the EAEU at the same time. The integration of any country with the EU means the automatic closure of the Russian market. This is an economic axiom. Plus, Belarus, when integrating with the EU, will have to fulfill Brussels' commands on sanctions policy towards Russia.
        So. 70% of Belarusians want the same as Lukashenka. Lukashenka, like the majority of his country's population, wants to receive resources from Russia at domestic prices, the absence of borders and customs, and to continue the course of rapprochement with the EU. There are no anti-Russian slogans in Belarus, as in Ukraine in 2013-2014.
        I don't like Lukashenka on his own. As he was the chairman of the state farm, he remained so. But time is changing and the situation has changed dramatically. Russia cannot pull on itself and its hump of its closest neighbors. You need a return. And neither Minsk nor Kiev, and no one else wants to give it away.
        I just don't see the point in these protests. Well, Lukashenka will leave, and in a year or two (maybe three) the situation will be the same as in Ukraine. There will be no industry, no lace panties.
        My opinion is that 70% of Belarusians chop the branch on which they sit. Of course, they can topple Lukashenka (especially with the support of the West). But what will happen next? Russia will not introduce troops. This is out of the question. And the pro-Russian partisans will not be there. The EU does not need them either. The EU has a hard time supporting Ukraine. They will give loans, but then they will start taking interest.
        The world has changed. The situation is ridiculously simple, "He who is not with us is against us."
        1. Alexey Sergeev Offline Alexey Sergeev
          Alexey Sergeev (Alexey Sergeev) 20 August 2020 15: 00
          Russia cannot pull on itself and its hump of its closest neighbors

          There is an example with the same Estonia. He does not sit on our hump, he lives well (average salary 1000 €). Say, the EU subsidizes them? (And let it be, the main thing is not us. Although not everything is so simple).
          But maybe it is worth letting Belarus work on its own, without discouraging motivation with subsidies?
          1. Bakht Offline Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 20 August 2020 16: 05
            In general, I am in favor of everyone earning themselves, and not looking into a neighbor's pocket.

            I do not consider examples with the Balts. They are still subsidized. Like Poland. Comparisons can only be made when they begin to fully support themselves. Salary by itself is not an indicator. Costs also matter. But, of course, the situation in Estonia is better than in Russia or Belarus. But this is only the last two years. The growth is provided by IT technologies. But not by production. And for some reason in Estonia, according to the EU, 25% of the population live in "relative poverty". And people are looking for work in Europe. Although this may be due to higher salaries in Europe.

            In Belarus, the "tough business executive" Lukashenko has preserved an "oasis of stability" at the expense of Russia. 106 billion over 10 years is quite a lot. According to the same IMF, Ukraine cost Russia 250 billion over the same 10 years. As soon as the subsidies to Belarus (did not even end), but simply decreased, Lukashenko began to engage in blackmail and speculation. We now see the result.
            As soon as the subsidies to Estonia stop, then we will see the real picture.
            As for Russia, I have already filled a corn on my tongue. As soon as the ruble does not become convertible and capital outflow stops, then we will see which model of the economy is better and more efficient. So far, I see that everyone around is demanding money from Russia. Sanctions, courts, violations of WTO rules. I would have slammed the door (Peter's window) long ago and nailed it crosswise with boards.
  2. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 14 August 2020 10: 34
    Lukashenka and his entourage simply do not have foreign assets, threatening to block or confiscate which, they could be productively blackmailed.

    And if he does not, do the other members of the government and their families have? He kept the industry, did not let it be destroyed. He raised agriculture, they will definitely not die of hunger. To be honest, nobody made any claims to Lukashenka, only political ones - leave and that's it. Lukashenka behaves honestly towards his people and country and does not prepare a way of retreat. If only I would not succumb to provocations.
    "My tongue is my enemy."
    1. polev66 Offline polev66
      polev66 (Alexander) 15 August 2020 18: 00
      Take away cheap energy resources from this industry, metal from Russia, Lukashenko's vaunted Soviet industry will turn into ballast with uncompetitive prices.
      1. Nick Offline Nick
        Nick (Nikolai) 16 August 2020 08: 38
        Quote: polev66
        Take away cheap energy resources from this industry, metal from Russia, Lukashenko's vaunted Soviet industry will turn into ballast with uncompetitive prices.

        Add to this the Russian sales markets, and the picture becomes complete.
    2. Alexey Sergeev Offline Alexey Sergeev
      Alexey Sergeev (Alexey Sergeev) 20 August 2020 15: 03
      It's funny that Lukashenka from the past is a reproach to himself (like Putin, by the way). Speeches about the fact that the time of seventy-year politicians at the helm has passed, about the inadmissibility of "holding on to power to death" and changing the constitution for oneself.
  3. g1washntwn Offline g1washntwn
    g1washntwn (George Washington) 14 August 2020 10: 40
    And what would not the Iraqi scenario at once? Russia is close by ... Aggravation of seasonal suicidal thoughts? Until the Maidan scenario, the hands are short, but still there. Washington dreamers.
  4. King3214 Offline King3214
    King3214 (Sergius) 14 August 2020 11: 12
    And why did the gentlemen from the European Union sit on the priest evenly and shut up when the events in the USA took place?
    Here, after all, it’s like: either "democratic values ​​are everywhere," or close your mouth.
    1. Yuri Nemov Offline Yuri Nemov
      Yuri Nemov (Yuri Nemov) 14 August 2020 13: 42
      So the Yankees, after all, democratically kill blacks, and democratically invade other countries. And Lukashenka disperses the crowd with authoritarianism. Do you feel the difference?
      1. Alexey Sergeev Offline Alexey Sergeev
        Alexey Sergeev (Alexey Sergeev) 20 August 2020 15: 07
        Did they kill a lot of blacks? smile
        Lukashenka carries out an action of intimidation when they grab and beat everyone in a row. But it is important to remember that if the situation is shaken, the Belarusian OMON will sharply request to emigrate to us. Like the Ukrainian Berkut.
    2. Alexey Sergeev Offline Alexey Sergeev
      Alexey Sergeev (Alexey Sergeev) 20 August 2020 15: 12
      What is happening in the USA?
      A bunch of pogromists (namely, they rob shops, not a single such in Belarus) are organizing riots because of a deceased criminal, from whom (with the support of the Democratic Party) they made an icon.
  5. Perfectionist Offline Perfectionist
    Perfectionist 14 August 2020 11: 41
    Belarus, if they do not want war and blood, must become part of the Russian Federation. Joining the federation is salvation for the country. Otherwise, they will lose the state and territory, they will find poverty, emigration, devastation, liquidation of enterprises, unemployment. Lukashenko's economic system - socialism at the expense of Russia no longer works, and the capitalism of the West will devour them.
    1. King3214 Offline King3214
      King3214 (Sergius) 14 August 2020 14: 59
      If ALL candidates for the presidency of the Republic of Bashkortostan marked themselves out on the basis of Russophobia (in their pre-election process), then the question "what do Belarusians want" in terms of joining the Russian Federation disappears by itself.
      Therefore, you should not worry about their fate, this is their choice.
      How not worth paying for their way "away from Russia." On the contrary, it is necessary to extract maximum profit from Belarus for Russia, by any means, without any restrictions.
    2. kot711 Offline kot711
      kot711 (vov) 15 August 2020 12: 08
      Belarus, if they do not want war and blood, must become part of the Russian Federation. Joining the federation is salvation for the country. ,,
      And what are the better Russian oligarchs, Belarusian "democrats"? They will also tear apart the economy and lower the living standards of the people.
      1. polev66 Offline polev66
        polev66 (Alexander) 15 August 2020 18: 02
        Or maybe you ask Russians if they want to see zmagars on their necks? How tired you are, witnesses of the Soviet sect.
        1. The comment was deleted.
      2. King3214 Offline King3214
        King3214 (Sergius) 20 August 2020 18: 10
        But they "forgot" to tell the Belarusians that their standard of living was paid for by capitalist, oligarchic and generally very bad Russia. That's how they "forgot" for 26 years. So a generation of idiots has grown up who are piously convinced of their exclusivity and that everyone owes them.
    3. Nick Offline Nick
      Nick (Nikolai) 16 August 2020 08: 40
      Quote: Perfectionist
      Belarus, if they do not want war and blood, must become part of the Russian Federation. Entering the federation is salvation for the country

    4. Alexey Sergeev Offline Alexey Sergeev
      Alexey Sergeev (Alexey Sergeev) 20 August 2020 15: 08
      Let me remind you that in Russia it is also like capitalism. smile
      And there is no question of any "opposition of systems" (as before).
  6. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 14 August 2020 12: 54
    The West begins to hint at the "Yugoslav scenario" for Belarus

    - Belarusian themes have gone ... - almost identical ... consonant ...
    - Personally, I have already mentioned in the topic:

    What Lukashenka will be forced to give to Putin in exchange for help

    - about Lo ... how ... how about "Belarusian Ceausescu" ...

    As far as we know, Lukashenka and his entourage simply do not have foreign assets, threatening to block or confiscate which, they could be productively blackmail

    So Ceausescu also seemed to have paid off Western debts and it was not so easy to blackmail him ... - There was only one thing left ... - only to eliminate ...
    - So Lo ... - also has no personal accounts that the West can easily freeze; there is no foreign real estate "a'la Deripaska and other Russian oligarchs"; and his relatives live in Belarus, and his children are trained in "native Penates" ... - So personally, the West cannot squeeze Lo himself ... - All that remains is the "Chaushesk version" ... - Therefore ... - better Lo to leave himself for the good, in health ... and settle in the Moscow region with all his relatives ... is the best option for him ...
    1. Accidentally Offline Accidentally
      Accidentally 15 August 2020 10: 53
      Russophobe Lukashesku will not go for the option in the Moscow region. This is an example for Russia, it's time for the Kremlin to know the honor. .... protests in Khabarovsk and other cities are still going on.
      1. Nick Offline Nick
        Nick (Nikolai) 16 August 2020 08: 46
        Quote: Kazara
        .... protests in Khabarovsk and other cities are still going on.

        Oh, are you talking about Portland and Chicago? Clear. Krandets of American hegemony means.
        The world is changing...
      2. King3214 Offline King3214
        King3214 (Sergius) 20 August 2020 18: 13
        If money is paid, why shouldn't they go?
        Would you like to assure me and everyone present that in Khabarovsk they are protesting "at the call of the heart" and "on their own"?
        Please do not offend the local community with such conclusions.
  7. Victor Zhelyabin (Victor Zhelyabin) 15 August 2020 20: 39
    And, is it weak for the United States and the European Union to simply recognize Tikhanovskaya as President of Belarus, as they recognized as President Guyado in Venezuela?
  8. Satellite Offline Satellite
    Satellite 16 August 2020 00: 06
    The West begins to hint at the "Yugoslav scenario" for Belarus

    Fu you, damn it? ... And I almost thought: 72 days of bombing! Already started to worry about NATO. But what about .. Yeltsin is no more .. There will be no one to remain silent.
    1. g1washntwn Offline g1washntwn
      g1washntwn (George Washington) 18 August 2020 09: 11
      Quote: Satellite
      There will be no one to keep silent.

      And by the way, Sergei Kuzhugetovich will be able to replace the GDP for a couple of terms. I put things in order in the Ministry of Emergency Situations, and it is high time in the surrounding environment of the Russian Federation. I would be FOR.
  9. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 16 August 2020 13: 22
    ..that "hopes for the development of Belarus in the right direction" were brutally "broken" by forceful actions against the protesters. Herr Maas immediately called on the entire European Union to unite in a single impulse and "take a common position regarding Minsk."

    And how we all hoped that after the defeat of Hitler, Germany would stop encouraging SS marches in Europe, but did not stop! You can't wash a black dog white! And to begin with, let Germany first free itself from the US occupation forces. Otherwise, there is no American colony of faith.
  10. shinobi Offline shinobi
    shinobi (Yuri) 22 August 2020 13: 38
    You cannot surrender Belarus. But Luka went too far. After the protests end, the Kremlin will remove Luka. Maidan will not be allowed and Russia, unofficially, will help with this.
  11. Topol M Offline Topol M
    Topol M (Yuri) 22 August 2020 22: 45
    Necropic! In your country, figure it out, but you don't need to decide for the entire Belarusian people! We and you do not need with your imperial manners, we want peaceful coexistence with all. I respected Putin very much, that he raised Russia and recreated the army. But when he congratulated our collective farmer on his victory, this is the end. It is clear that the imperial habits remained, and you want to cut your oglo-eaters in RB.