Political scientist: Situation in Belarus is developing according to the worst scenario


The internal crisis that arose after the presidential elections in Belarus is developing in the worst possible way, since Russia does not publicly voice its strategic goal of reuniting the two fraternal Slavic peoples - such an opinion was expressed by political scientist and publicist from the Russian Federation Yegor Kholmogorov in his blog.


The situation in Belarus is developing in the worst possible way. Lukashenka’s regime is staggering and is about to collapse - it clearly lacks legitimacy. The most likely outcome of what is happening is that the newly elected president will give up power to the pro-Western political groups. Warsaw is actively asking for moderators of the situation. Russia is publicly humiliated by Batka

- Kholmogorov lists the signals of a serious crisis of power in Belarus.

At the same time, some are trying to see Moscow's hand behind the aggression of the Belarusian security forces - this is the spirit of the Poles and those who demand serious sanctions. Thus, Russia acts both in the role of a passive observer of the unfolding action in Belarus and in the role of the main accused in the preparation for the annexation of the Republic of Belarus.

- the political scientist emphasized.

According to Kholmogorov, the society is now divided into Lukashenka's supporters and “live belorusers”, although Russian plans for this country should be completely different.
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  1. Tramp1812 Offline
    Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 13 August 2020 17: 55
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    There are more than enough forecasts for Belarus today. And for the most part - each is grounded in its own way. As for me, all forecasts have one weak point: due to the closed nature of the Belarusian society, there is no real information about the reasons for the mass protests. One can only assume that they are based on the exhaustion of the multi-vector policy, which A.G.
    The Russian Federation does not want to pay more for smiles, and the sales market and sources of raw materials for Belarus, as luck would have it, are in Russia. For Russian farmers, benefits for agricultural products of syabrov are a sharp knife. Europe also wants certainty: either to them, or to the Russian Federation. And on two chairs - it does not work. There is also the PRC, but there they will not bet on such, in general, a dubious card. Plus the personal qualities of A.G.
    He sat down all the candidates, the elections were rigged. Now he also beats the always obedient Belarusians. But these guys, if they get it, the whole country will go to the partisans. In vain he is with them so .... It seems that Alexander Grigorievich has lost his authority. And he will lose power. Not today, so in the near future. I think so (film "Mimino").
    1. alexandreII Offline
      alexandreII (Alexander) 13 August 2020 18: 47
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      It seems that Alexander Grigorievich has lost his authority ...

      Yes, he lost his conscience, and for a long time ... ..
  2. Observer2014 Offline
    Observer2014 13 August 2020 18: 02
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    "BelAZ", "MAZ". Few? They went on strike with the slogan "Go away" Not for Tikhonovskaya. Namely, "Go away." No, of course, riot police can produce cars. To work on machines. A dozen rubber bullets in sitting and standing machines and machine tools will begin to produce products. yes Let's go ahead. fool How much is the Belarusian ruble worth today in relation to ye? Have you jumped on the course yet? (here the specialist was not even interested in this issue). But in power. And against everyone. Including Russia. Where are the guys? They are sitting in Minsk. Well, nothing, we'll wait.
  3. Digital error Offline
    Digital error (Eugene) 13 August 2020 19: 03
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    Russia does not publicly voice its strategic goal of reuniting two fraternal Slavic peoples

    It is difficult to disagree with this - in Lukashenka's "congratulations" from our president there are quite pragmatic demands between the lines that he is still should execute as president. Brothers are not congratulated like that. request
  4. Valentine Offline
    Valentine (Valentin) 13 August 2020 19: 16
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    Do not sit, "Guarantor", do not wait for Washington to appoint Belarusian Guaido instead of Lukashenko, urgently send Shoigu, Lavrov and Gerasimov to Minsk, let Lukashenka immediately "negotiate" with Lukashenko to withdraw his presidential powers, due to the inability to rule the country due to illness , at the same time negotiating with the Belarusian security officials on the appointment of the interim president of a person loyal to Russia, and such people will be found there.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 13 August 2020 19: 37
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      Such a landing of "Muscovites" will not pass, the Belarusians will go to the partisans, Western propaganda will contribute to this ... Here G. Lukashenko will start talking with the people, and promise not to run for more elections, but to prepare the country for transfer to further elected presidents, expand popular rule ... Peaceful and respectful treatment to relieve tension in society, here is a possible way out of the situation ...
      1. Bakht Offline
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 13 August 2020 19: 57
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        and promise not to run again

        It is good to. But this is from the realm of fantasy.
        -----
        Is there any information about the rally in support of Lukashenka? Even unverified. At least one rally, at least one speech ...
        1. Digital error Offline
          Digital error (Eugene) 13 August 2020 20: 03
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          Quote: Bakht
          At least one rally, at least one speech

          Look at the root. It was Poklonnaya, as opposed to Bolotnaya, that helped delegitimize the 2012 protest, eventually allowing the fans to raise the retirement age. Therefore:
          a) yes - this is from the realm of fantasy;
          b) repetitions of "Poklonnaya"

          https://echo.msk.ru/blog/echomsk/855656-echo/

          - its "deceived" participants of the "sample" of 2012 are not expected.
        2. Tramp1812 Offline
          Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 13 August 2020 20: 26
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          Quote: Bakht
          and promise not to run again

          It is good to. But this is from the realm of fantasy.
          -----
          Is there any information about the rally in support of Lukashenka? Even unverified. At least one rally, at least one speech ...

          Hardly. Lukashenka's adherents are sure that he is the one "who will decide everything for us." And he himself was sure of it. And now I'm sure. A.G. counted on a blitzkrieg, acted rudely, arrogantly, illegally, primitively. This pushed away many of his former supporters from himself. In addition, counter rallies are recognition of confrontation in society and, in essence, the existence of a civil conflict. And from a technical point of view - there is no time to prepare a "meeting battle". In addition to all this, there is no exact information about what is happening in Belarus. From what was and is, it is more or less clear that the country as a whole is one. And falsification of elections, violence, lawlessness and outright rudeness and insults to their own population alienated many of Lukashenka's supporters. Although I understand, of course, the irony of your post. She is also a diagnosis and prognosis.
          1. Bakht Offline
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 13 August 2020 20: 27
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            The chairman of a collective farm is the chairman of a collective farm in Africa.
  5. Tramp1812 Offline
    Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 13 August 2020 20: 11
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    Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
    Such a landing of "Muscovites" will not work, the Belarusians will go to the partisans, Western propaganda will contribute to this ... Here G. Lukashenko will start talking with the people, and promise not to run for more elections, but to prepare the country for transfer to further elected presidents, to expand popular rule ... Peaceful and respectful treatment to relieve tension in society, here is a possible way out of the situation ...

    Late, Rose is drinking Borzhom: the kidneys have fallen off.
    The protesters, in fact, have three claims - requirements:
    1. Go away !;
    2. Elections are rigged;
    3. Ending the violence and releasing those in custody.
    When these conditions are met, the following questions -requirements will automatically appear:
    1. Who is to blame:
    1.1. rigging elections;
    1.2. in giving orders for the use of special equipment and violence against peaceful demonstrators;

    2. About punishment of the guilty:
    2.1. President of the Republic of Belarus;
    2.2. involved in electoral fraud;
    2.3. leaders and executors of power structures guilty of crimes against life, health, political rights of citizens.

    3. New elections.
    Now compare these questions, some of which have already been asked with your own proposals:
    1. To recognize the elections as legal and democratic, since you propose to leave A.G. in power, with a promise not to run in the next elections.
    2. Choose a successor (!). I would suggest the son of batski - Kolya. He will just grow up for the next elections. I think A.G. will not mind.
    3. Promise (!) Respectful respect for people.
    Lukashenka can and will want to do all this. But who will give him?
    And somehow you have moved away from your main idea of ​​fix- the role of Israel and its special services in the events in Belarus. It's even insulting. Hellas was seen in a successful bulk on a Turkish ship of the Hellas Navy, but not here. Disorder!
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 13 August 2020 20: 28
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      He offended the Israeli advocate, well, Belarus is not sticking to the Israeli plans, although Foreign Minister V. Makei is a Jew - so a straw was found, he made you happy ...
      1. Tramp1812 Offline
        Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 13 August 2020 21: 57
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        Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
        He offended the Israeli advocate, well, Belarus is not sticking to the Israeli plans, although Foreign Minister V. Makei is a Jew - so a straw was found, he made you happy ...

        And the real name of Lukashenko is Riesenschnauzer. Hence the ferocity.)
  6. Jozhik_2 Offline
    Jozhik_2 (Jozhik) 13 August 2020 23: 05
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    Whatever the scoundrel Father is, after him the Belarusians will inevitably be ruled by a national traitor and an anti-Russian bastard. Don't go to the fortuneteller. And this is primarily the fault of Russia and the same But Father. Russia needs to annex Belarus and Donbass in one fell swoop, then - according to the situation. Other options will be many times more dangerous and more expensive.
  7. The comment was deleted.
  8. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 14 August 2020 00: 03
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    Political scientist: Situation in Belarus is developing according to the worst scenario

    - Well, what can you do ... - since there are weak politicians in Moscow and Minsk; who can only do something in response to something ... - And for their actions "ahead of the curve" (to carry out their policy) they simply do not have enough intelligence ...
    - In Russia, even the work of all media is based solely on conducting a "justification campaign", after foreign media pour out whole streams of all kinds of false fabrications and negativity on Russia ... - And such a one-sided game is never successful ...
    - Well, of course ... - and the entire foreign policy of Russia ... - is the same as the Russian media ... - what can we expect ... good ...
    - Even today ... - two fraternal states cannot do anything on their own; but just waiting and wondering ... - how to defend further ... - and what else will be done against them ...
    - And they themselves cannot do anything ... - ahead of the curve ...
    - And they can do anything against them ... - If you yourself cannot do anything here; then they will definitely take something against you ...
    - Not so long ago they came up with the Minsk Agreements against Novorossiya ...
    - And today they will already think up against Minsk itself ... mmmm ... - probably ... already the "Riga agreements" ... -Such a natural "chain reaction" ... - as a result of any slobbery policy ...
    - And what kind of "agreements" will come up later for ... for ... for ... - against ... Moscow ???
    - There’s no laughing matter ...
    1. _AMUHb_ Offline
      _AMUHb_ (_AMUHb_) 14 August 2020 01: 32
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      The adaptability to some kind of "Ge" is really present, I completely agree with you ... for what, why, why - I find it difficult to answer ... perhaps we "fizzled out" (I really would not want us to be quietly poured out - " ")
    2. beeper Online
      beeper 14 August 2020 07: 07
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      hi Well done, Mrs. Gorenina! good
      You have clearly outlined everything (although this "oil painting" is annoying and sad, but, alas, a fact! recourse!
      1. Bulanov Offline
        Bulanov (Vladimir) 14 August 2020 09: 30
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        Lukashenka has a decent way out - to accuse Minister Makei and the head of the KGB of setting up, arrest them as enemies of Belarus, and promise the people integration with Russia. In Russia, before, during the troubles, boyars were thrown into the people ...
  9. Obama Barack Offline
    Obama Barack (Obama Barack) 14 August 2020 09: 36
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    We cannot replace the military MAZs and BELAZs for the next 7-10 years. Although KAMAZ is trying with might and main. So the fight will be big. Poles and Tribals are well paid.
  10. Tramp1812 Offline
    Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 14 August 2020 10: 58
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    Quote: Bulanov
    Lukashenka has a decent way out - to accuse Minister Makei and the head of the KGB of setting up, arrest them as enemies of Belarus and promise the people integration with Russia. In Russia, always before, during troubles, boyars were thrown at the people ...

    It will lose its only support. There is an anecdote on this very topic.

    The cowboy rides through the desert, followed by the Indians.
    This is the end, thought the cowboy.
    “Not a horse yet,” said an inner voice.
    - Kill the leader.
    The cowboy shoots and kills the chief.
    “Now it's over,” an inner voice said.

    Moreover, the issue of violence is secondary. The main one is falsification of elections and demand for resignation. It is hypothetically possible to stay in power by maneuvering. Lukashenka's adherents must have their say under the cover of security officials. They are now not organized and confused. It is necessary to play for time as much as possible, to chat up the situation, to compromise (without touching) opponents. And at the same time to establish civilian resistance to the rebels. But all this is a patch for a hole. Akella missed. The myth of his invincibility and universal fear of him has been dispelled. And all because he has no allies from outside. It is only a question of which way Belarus will be taken, and without Lukashenka: to the East with integration into the Russian Federation (the option of entering by three regions is not excluded), or to the West. China is unlikely to intervene.