Belarus may leave Russia in the "Rzeczpospolita-2"


The elections in Belarus ended with a victory for President Lukashenko, but the struggle for this country is actually just beginning. Alexander Grigorievich's "phenomenal" result of 80% convinced few people in the West. In Minsk and other cities, mass protests against falsifications do not subside. So far, the power of the re-elected head of state rests on the bayonets of the security forces, who are harshly dispersing the demonstrators. But where will Belarus go if Lukashenka does not resist and any other pro-Western candidate comes to replace him?


In this matter, the position of the closest neighbors of Belarus from the EU side is of great interest. The Polish and Lithuanian presidents addressed their colleague with a joint message:

As neighbors of Belarus, we call on the Belarusian authorities to fully recognize and respect basic democratic standards. We call for refraining from violence and respecting fundamental freedoms.

In general, calls for the observance of the law and the rule of law should only be welcomed, especially if all sides of the internal political process adhere to this. But, let's face it, objectively few people are as interested in the arrival of “their own man” in Minsk as Warsaw and Vilnius. For Lithuania, this is literally the last chance to stop the launch of the BelNPP, built just 50 kilometers from the country's capital, about which we are in detail told earlier.

With Poland, everything is much more complicated, since it is a long-term and irreconcilable opponent and competitor of Russia in Eastern Europe. The need to confront Moscow led to the unification in 1569 of the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania into the Rzeczpospolita in the city of Lublin. The interest of modern Warsaw in the events in Minsk and Kiev can be easily explained by the fact that both the territory of Belarus and Ukraine were previously part of the Polish-Lithuanian confederation. After that there was a series of partitions of Poland, but the Poles themselves never forgot about their past as a major regional power in Eastern Europe.

After the end of the First World War, Marshal Piłsudski put forward the idea of ​​creating a new confederal state, which was to be called Intermarium. In addition to Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine and Belarus itself, it could include the Baltic countries, Hungary, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and even Finland. That is, a huge buffer state from the Baltic Sea to the Black and Adriatic would appear between Russia and Western Europe.

Few people supported such an ambitious idea of ​​Warsaw at that time, but on its own, as a result of the Polish-Soviet war of 1919-1921, it was able to reconquer Western Ukraine and Western Belarus. Later, the USSR returned these territories back. The collapse of the Soviet Union gave the Poles a chance for historic revenge. It is no secret that numerous foreign NGOs that work with young people have been operating on the territory of Ukraine and Belarus for decades. Certain political steps to integrate former Soviet republics into Warsaw's sphere of influence.

Thus, in 2005, long before the Maidan, the Interparliamentary Assembly of the Seim and the Senate of the Republic of Poland, the Seim of the Republic of Lithuania and the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine was created. This interstate association received its own "armed forces": in 2014, a joint Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian brigade, stationed in Lublin, appeared. And on July 28, 2020, an agreement was signed between Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine on political, economic and social cooperation, all in the same Lublin, where the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was once born. The integration platform received the symbolic name "Lublin Triangle".

By the way, the head of the Foreign Ministry of Belarus has been invited to the next meeting of the "triangle" in the Ukrainian capital as an honored guest. It is very difficult not to notice Warsaw's attempts to reassemble its former possessions around itself. It is clear that under President Lukashenko, who avoided integration with Russia in the format of the Union State, one can hardly expect that he will open the doors wide for Poland and Lithuania. But if instead of him comes another politician, a pro-Western formation, then the revenge of the Rzecz Pospolita-2 may well take place. It is possible that the idea of ​​creating a buffer state on the border with Russia this time will receive support in Washington and Brussels.
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  1. LeftPers Offline LeftPers
    LeftPers (Anton) 11 August 2020 14: 50
    10
    What kind of map did you draw? Or are they targets for our missiles? Why, then, the Russian Crimea was painted. Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth? Yes, never a prostitute will become a young lady, this country has never been great and never will be. Throughout history, Poland has been and trampled, and always will be.
  2. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 11 August 2020 14: 56
    -7
    Belarus may leave Russia in the "Rzeczpospolita-2"

    Personally, I already wrote in the topic:

    President Lukashenko deprived himself of Russian support by arrest of "Wagnerites"

    that

    - Or maybe the chest just opens ... - This is just personally "my version":
    - Today, Russia is very unprofitable that option when Lukashenka suddenly leaves ... - Well, personally and our guarantor is very unprofitable ... - Why would he want it ???
    - Well, they muddied (in support of Lukashenka) all this absurdity with these "Wagnerites" (or whoever they are) ... - Like, Lukashenko will arrest them and the whole nation will rally in the face of danger next to this "Belarusian dad" ... - In any case, it will be revealed ... - how much the people support Lukashenko in his actions ... - and should Lukashenko be ready to take more radical forceful measures ... if something happens ...
    - But ... everything turned out clumsy and clumsy ... - the "Wagnerites" were arrested .... - and this "did not clear up" anything ... - And the situation continues to aggravate ... - in a different scenario ... - the second planned joint scenario "Lukashenko-Putin" ....
    - Personally, I do not believe in a real confrontation between Russia and Belarus ... - everything is agreed in advance ... - solid theatrical props ...
    -Yes, and our guarantor, in case of Lukashenka's departure ... -that will also be very difficult ... -this and for him will be the "first bell" ... -So ...

    - And today's situation in Belarus convinced me personally that I was personally right ... - Lukashenko and Putin played a play with these "33 heroes"
    - But, apparently, this did not work very well ... - apparently, Lukashenka's personal capriciousness also hurts here and prevented a lot ... - Lukashenka won the election; but the people around him somehow did not rally very well ... - His security forces worked poorly and did not eliminate enemy agents and "American instigators" from Ukraine ...
    - Lukashenka wanted to remain "good" for Ukraine and his "brother" ... and did not touch all this evil spirits sent from Ukraine ... - Now he is clearing up ...
    - Apparently, the security forces of Belarus (the KGB and the Ministry of Internal Affairs) are still subordinate to Lukashenka; but the army, apparently, is ... - too "neutral position" ...
    -And without the army, Lukashenka will not be able to introduce martial law ...
    - Today, Russia urgently needs to hold military meetings and negotiations at the highest level with the military leadership of Belarus ... - at the level of meetings of the defense ministers (Russia and Belarus) ...; it is necessary for Putin and Lukashenko to seriously consider the issue of the introduction of Russian troops into the territory of Belarus ... - After all, if something happens and under our guarantor, the chair will "sway" in an adult way ... - And this must be done immediately ... - for now did not intervene ... seriously "enemy forces" ...
    1. Valentine Offline Valentine
      Valentine (Valentin) 11 August 2020 17: 19
      -1
      And what, the idea of ​​bringing our troops into the territory of the union state is very sensible and necessary, it remains to convene an urgent summit of the CSTO, get a "ticket" from him for this, and with God, and this is only our business, that is, the SCO-CIS countries , and we are simply obliged to do this in order to save Belarus from the Ukrainian apocalypse and civil war, and let the Euro-United States go out of their way and go bile, we will have it on a big drum. And if the "Guarantor" does this, and does not give Belarus to be devoured by the Poles and Romanians, he will immediately rise in the eyes of the Russians, stop chewing snot, otherwise we will lose Russia.
      1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
        Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 13 August 2020 11: 11
        -2
        Still thinking on an imperial scale? It's high time to wake up. The USSR "ordered" for a long time. Belarus is a different country. There is nothing to meddle in the affairs of a foreign state.
        1. 123 Offline 123
          123 (123) 17 August 2020 16: 28
          +1
          Still thinking on an imperial scale? It's high time to wake up. The USSR "ordered" for a long time. Belarus is a different country. There is nothing to meddle in the affairs of a foreign state.

          You tell this Polish-Tribaltic gang. Belarus is not a foreign state to us, but quite an allied one.
  3. GRF Offline GRF
    GRF 11 August 2020 15: 15
    0
    To create such Intermarium, you must first break up the EU ...
    When they fall apart, then we'll think about a new independent confederate "buffer", but for now let's admire Brussels' support ...
    Going into something that in fact does not exist is fantastic, like a drawn map ...
  4. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 11 August 2020 15: 50
    0
    the territory of Belarus and Ukraine were previously part of the Polish-Lithuanian confederation.

    Let's remember who previously entered the Russian Empire ... More recently!
    And in what language will this new Rzeczpospolita communicate? In Polish, Lithuanian, Ukrainian, Belarusian, or - English? Or the great and mighty?
  5. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 11 August 2020 16: 05
    +2
    History teaches nothing. Rake jumping is a national Polish pastime.
    There is a chance instead of Intermarium to become Interworld again, divided according to the old tradition between the two worlds.
    It's time to take away the markers from the Polish strategists, they completely fell into childhood, they ruined a good map.
  6. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 11 August 2020 17: 10
    -1
    For some reason, mythical projects are inflated (Speech pospolita), when a union called Visegrad by the treaty was created long ago, which includes: the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, Lithuania and others adjoin ... Today, the activities of the union have quieted down a little (Western partners did not like ), but it will clearly expand activities due to the crisis ...
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 11 August 2020 17: 40
      0
      Addendum: if the influence of the Russian Federation weakens, and this is where things are going, the Visegrad group (as they call it) will be able to take over the role of the center of Slavism, then Ukraine and Belarus will naturally fit into the European Visegrad Slavic union ... Russia, under today's crypto-Jewish rule, has no allies from behind the current foreign and domestic policy, and in fact has been the last 25 years of Moscow Khazaria ...
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 11 August 2020 19: 25
        0
        The main mistake is

        The Visegrad group (as they call it) will be able to take over the role of the center of Slavism
      2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
        Bulanov (Vladimir) 11 August 2020 19: 25
        0
        This Hungarians with Tribalts will organize a Slavic union?
        1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 11 August 2020 21: 13
          -2
          You have problems with logic ... Non-Slavs in a Slavic environment have nowhere to go ...
          1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 11 August 2020 21: 15
            -2
            Addendum: Hungarians are a cross between the Finno-Ugric and the assimilated Slavs on the conquered lands ...
    2. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
      Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 11 August 2020 18: 36
      -2
      Remember the times of Byzantium ... there is a good old tradition in Russia and the Aglo-Saxons to reshape these non-Europeans ...
  7. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 11 August 2020 17: 22
    -2
    In fact, this is probably Putin's cunning plan)))
    A total of 33 detainees (not arrested, they write), and how many experts, observers, media sources, news portals and websites provided work in many countries and for a relatively long time ...
    1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
      Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 11 August 2020 19: 50
      -1
      Quote: Sergey Latyshev
      A total of 33 detainees (not arrested, they write), and how many experts, observers, smishniks, news portals and websites provided work

      So, if Old Man fails the coup, it's a billion down the drain.
      In the previous presidential elections in Russia, the State Department spent 4 billion on bulk, Sobchaks, Latin. Wasted. If Lukashenka also leaves, it will be like dropping it in the US zone.
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 11 August 2020 22: 52
        -3
        Somehow you are trifling. Patriots wrote for 12, 17, and up to 76 billion dollars.
        Probably angry, they didn't have time to nod at the TV. Therefore, "the dad turns the dad over."

        Or is it such subtle Georgian humor?
        1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
          Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 11 August 2020 23: 04
          +1
          It was Obama's humor when he officially announced that they allocated 4 billion dollars for the promotion of democracy in Russia during the presidential elections. With this money, Ksyusha Sobchak, a presidential candidate in Russia, traveled to the United States for dinner at Trump's. Where she was instructed on the rules of serving human meat dishes.
          Well, and Svoboda updated a couple of times, receiving 100 million a year out of these 4 billion, the news feed of its website in Russian.
          1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
            Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 11 August 2020 23: 54
            -4
            Sneezing at Obama, he got along with Medvedev, their affairs. The little dog is a friend of the Family, all the more she can do anything.

            Bottom line: Georgian humor is not for you, it is for you for small switchmen.
  8. Let's chop off Dad's Lou in the Vitebsk, Mogilev and Gomel regions - and daddy go to the forest!
  9. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 11 August 2020 19: 46
    0
    The need to confront Moscow led to the unification in 1569 of the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania into the Rzeczpospolita in the city of Lublin.

    Oh, and the author is lying. Tiny Poland then joined the mighty principality of Lithuania to defend against the German invasion. The head of state was the Lithuanian prince, the state language, decrees and courts - Lithuanian. Then the Poles wiped out the Lithuanian dynasty and made the king elected.
    This is what cannot be taken away from the Poles' elite - this is meanness. They are always looking for a strong owner, and when a quiet life begins, they start to shit. Both to the owner and to the slaves.
    As for Belarus to Poland, it's like dividing the Poles into Russia and Austria. The old man will not listen to a single lurid advisor.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 11 August 2020 21: 10
      -4
      You don’t know the story, you’re telling a gag, you would ask at least on Wikipedia ... The Grand Duchy of Lithuania (ON) consisted of the majority of Slavic lands and officially used the Slavic language and writing. There was an insignificant percentage of Lithuanians, there was no Lithuanian writing until the 17th century, they used Cyrillic, later Latin and Polish and writing at the same time ... It was Lithuania, from the 13th century, was looking for an ally from the offensive of the Order of the Crusaders and Swordsmen, etc. with Poland strengthened for the defense against the growing Muscovy ...
      1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
        Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 11 August 2020 22: 53
        +1
        Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
        There was an insignificant percentage of Lithuanians, there was no Lithuanian written language until the 17th century, they used Cyrillic, later Latin and Polish.

        Gee. Try to read the original about the creation of the Commonwealth. Not a single Polish word, and Latin.
        Lithuanians, yes, at the beginning of the second millennium asked for help from the Poles - that's why they were baptized. Lithuania was Druidic in the 10th century. But then, until the Mongol invasion, they either put up with Russia or fought, the state included a part of Ukraine, Belarus, Smolensk. Quite a state for itself, not like a patchwork of Poland and Russia. Therefore, in the middle of the 2nd millennium, it was Poland that entered Lithuania, and not vice versa. And Russia had nothing to do with it, the Muscovites dreamed of the annexation of Kolomna and Mozhaisk, where they were before Lithuania ...
    2. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 August 2020 06: 44
      -2
      Quote: Oo sarcasm
      Oh, and the author is lying. Tiny Poland then joined the mighty principality of Lithuania to defend against the German invasion. The head of state was the Lithuanian prince, the state language, decrees and courts - Lithuanian. Then the Poles wiped out the Lithuanian dynasty and made the king elected.

      Fomenko reread?
      1. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
        Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 12 August 2020 18: 41
        +3
        In Soviet times, Fomenko added 2 + 2 more.
        Stati, the Lithuanian prince was in a hurry to the Kulikovo battle, Mamai to help. But he was a few days late ... And the Crimean Genoese were in time. And there were no Genoese left in Crimea, all the heirs of wealthy families died.
  10. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 11 August 2020 20: 59
    0
    And why was the Crimea included in Poland's hangover, or do you think that Poland, together with the Banderaites, will have enough strength against the Russian Federation ?! Not enough, even if they do not squabble among themselves in a few years, which is far from a fact. The Poles will not like the races with the portraits of Bandera and Shukhevych; such jumpers will be put on prison bunks if the western region of Ukraine and Belarus becomes part of Poland.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 11 August 2020 21: 20
      -1
      It is you:

      And with what hangover Crimea was recorded in Poland.

      ... Crimea never belonged to Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, from the conquests of the horde of the 13th century, it remained in the Turkic administration ...
      1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 13 August 2020 12: 38
        +1
        Here I am about that. Crimea belonged to Greece, Italy (Ancient Rome), and Turkey, but never belonged to Poland. Russia received Crimea under the Yassy Peace Treaty with Turkey in 1791.
  11. RFR Offline RFR
    RFR (RFR) 12 August 2020 00: 06
    0
    It may leave, it may not leave, the pots have already gone to Europe, if they want to go too, let them go, what to keep ...
  12. Observer2014 Offline Observer2014
    Observer2014 12 August 2020 00: 07
    -2
    Belarus may leave Russia in the "Rzeczpospolita-2"

    Better let's send one cockroach there. crying At least in some form. Even in SMS, mms, even in fashionable means of Internet communication. repeat bully
  13. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) 12 August 2020 08: 37
    +3
    An enemy is better than a vile friend.
  14. Bitter Offline Bitter
    Bitter (Gleb) 12 August 2020 10: 25
    -1
    Belarus may leave Russia in the "Rzeczpospolita"

    And this, geographically, where? Maybe in Brussels? Doubtful.
    Does this notorious "Lublin Triangle" have a "gold reserve"?
    How long will they last if their Brussels financial drip is removed? They themselves will obviously not dare to rip it off.
    The Belarusians will not go anywhere and will remain in their orbit, between a rock and a hard place. In any case, for the foreseeable future. After all, political upheavals mean, in turn, the re-division of the economic sphere, this can be very painful, and maybe even fatal, for the country's infrastructures.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 12 August 2020 11: 23
      0
      We must not forget that, in spite of Russia, all of its neighbors are turned against and supported by "big droppers." For example, a third of the budget of the Baltic states consisted of subsidies to E. The United States also supported weapons and other things, which we see in Ukraine, possibly the next Belarus ...
      1. Bitter Offline Bitter
        Bitter (Gleb) 12 August 2020 22: 37
        +3
        I just wanted to say that the "Lublin Triangle" will be dreamed by Polish politicians in wet dreams for many many years to come. Not for that Brussels invested money in them, so that they began to reshape the entire EU. With the debts, let them first pay off and put a three ruble note on the table.

        in Ukraine, possibly the next Belarus ...

        It all depends on the country's authorities, and they are not yet tuned in to the Ukrainian scenario, Russian politics plays a very important role in these processes. The Belarusians will be released, like the Balts in their time, and the Ukrainians, too, will be "free to sail", in a couple of years a solid anti-Russian bridgehead will be established there.
  15. Kuzmich Sibiryakov (Kuzmich Sibiryakov) 19 August 2020 23: 21
    +2
    Still, who would have thought that this author would draw himself, or use a different map. Its ukrofashizm is widely known for a long time.