Expert: Russia suffers geopolitical defeat


The stake of the Russian authorities on puppet "separatist" regimes has not justified itself, writes an expert on Eurasian issues Emil Avdaliani (Georgia) on the website Modern Diplomacy.


According to the author, an important part of Russia's foreign policy strategy is the maintenance of conflict zones in the post-Soviet space. The preservation of the shield from the buffer states, with the exception of the Baltic republics, is the cornerstone of the external policy The Kremlin against the Western military as well economic power.

The text suggests that "due to the low attractiveness of the Russian Federation" the states of the South Caucasus will inevitably turn towards Europe. The same can happen with Moldova and Ukraine.

To prevent economic and military infiltration of the West, the Kremlin incites various separatist conflicts. This policy has been successful so far as the EU and NATO countries have refrained from granting membership [to these organizations] to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.

- the expert believes.

However, now Russia is facing a different problem. If in the first years after the collapse of the Soviet Union the Kremlin had to manage conflicts only in small and poor Georgia and Moldova, now Moscow's area of ​​responsibility has become much more noticeable.
After the Ukrainian crisis, the text notes, Donetsk and Lugansk became part of the "empire" of Russia, where Syria later found itself.

The inclusion of the latter on the list may seem unexpected, but [...] the war-torn country is completely dependent on Russia. Taking into account Syria and Donbass, the Kremlin now has to manage a number of territories [...] which are geographically dispersed, economically disadvantageous and geopolitically vulnerable

- argues the author.

Sometimes the post-Soviet countries tried to play their game. So Kiev and Chisinau considered the possibility of blocking Transnistria, which has no direct ground or air communication with the Russian Federation. And in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russian troops stand on the sidelines, watching as NATO exercises are held side by side - on Georgian soil.

Geopolitical trends indicate that Russia's current strategy is losing its effectiveness.

The Russian Federation does not have a long-term development plan for the breakaway states, whose economic difficulties inevitably force the population to migrate to more prosperous territories. In addition, the Russian media is increasingly expressing dissatisfaction with the ineffective governance of these republics, for which the local authorities are responsible.
  • Used photographs: Ministry of Defense of the PMR
27 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.
I have an account? Sign in
  1. Alexey Semenenko (Alexey Semenenko) 10 August 2020 11: 41
    -4
    So long ago ...
    It's just that now it becomes clear to many.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  2. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 10 August 2020 11: 59
    +2
    In fact, the author of the Georgians is right, Surkov's years of sitting as the main adviser, and in the Foreign Ministry, Lavrov's teams were distinguished by the absence of a long-term strategy, were based on short-term steps bordering on scams (and directly scams), which for states with established traditions and relations looks like a marginal an upstart who does not understand the deep processes ... Therefore, because of the momentary mercantile gains, allies and relations for the ruble were lost on a penny ... Tom everyone was turned and allowed to turn into enemies and enemies ... Today, Surkov was replaced by Kiriyenko, changes are not yet visible, but the last Belarus is left to lose, it seems, and it will be successfully lost ... Conclusions: the president is responsible for foreign policy (as well as domestic), and the question is whether we have a capable president, and not a doll that speaks by prompts in the ear, for all the Decrees of the president by the government are NOT FULFILLED !!!
    1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
      Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 10 August 2020 12: 39
      -3
      Putin wanted to spit on your Georgia, the Balts and Ukraine))) he pulls the strings higher ... he presses on all non-brothers through the USA. There are examples of this ... all these non-Europeans are pawns of one big game of large countries. Everything is agreed and divided.
    2. Badger Offline Badger
      Badger (Dmitriy) 11 August 2020 10: 29
      +1
      It is not Russia that is losing someone - it is someone losing Russia!
  3. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline Oyo Sarkazmi
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 10 August 2020 11: 59
    +5
    Well, Georgia has turned ... She lives on $ 500 million in subsidies for the salaries of civil servants, from a local police officer to the president. Ukraine turned with a coup - now it is all in debt and tired of everyone. In the Baltics with a budget, there is also a full ATAS, for each euro of contribution to the EU, they receive 4 euros of subsidies. German workers feed them.
    But someday they will. For the global crisis.
  4. shinobi Offline shinobi
    shinobi (Yuri) 10 August 2020 12: 03
    +2
    Without direct intervention from the outside, no one will turn anywhere. The author is a dreamer.
    1. Hayer31 Offline Hayer31
      Hayer31 (Kashchei) 10 August 2020 13: 00
      -1
      Why do you think that people will not want to turn? Now on the Internet you can prove (seduce, convince) people, not necessarily Nuland with buns. And in the Kremlin or in the bunker they think that NATO divisions or the CIA can only make the country turn in the wrong direction.
      And the former republics do not see any attractiveness in Russia. As it was during the 19-20 centuries.
      People now travel both in Europe and in Russia, and they themselves see much better. Unfortunately, Russia lagged behind due to the fault of the leadership.
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 10 August 2020 14: 04
        0
        Why do you think that people will not want to turn? Now on the Internet you can prove (seduce, convince) people, not necessarily Nuland with buns. And in the Kremlin or in the bunker they think that NATO divisions or the CIA can only make the country turn in the wrong direction.

        I wonder what thoughts can come in the Reichstag or the old bunker of a little-known Austrian artist?

        And the former republics do not see any attractiveness in Russia. As it was during the 19-20 centuries.

        They don't see, okay. Where are we to Europe. Better to let everyone come to you, to blooming Bulgaria, Albania.

        People now travel both in Europe and in Russia, and they themselves see much better. Unfortunately, Russia lagged behind due to the fault of the leadership.

        You yourself are behind. People who have the opportunity to travel around Russia and Europe, obviously, live well at home, and are hardly looking for a place to go. And the rest, like millions of "traveling" Africans, let them come to you. Surely together you will be more fun.
        1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
          A.Lex (Secret information) 10 August 2020 16: 37
          +1
          Here's another thing that's interesting to me, 123 - since when have pro-American "experts" from a country that in its poverty lags behind only "Ukraine", are the authorities for the author of the article? He would have taken "Ukrainian experts" as authorities! laughing laughing laughing
          1. 123 Offline 123
            123 (123) 10 August 2020 16: 59
            +1
            ... since when have pro-American "experts" from a country that in its poverty lags behind only "Ukraine", are the author of the article authorities? He would have taken "Ukrainian experts" as authorities!

            I'm not sure they considered him an authority. We are introduced to the "foreign" information space. This is what they read at home. For this, the "experts" are paying money and probably overseas.
            1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
              A.Lex (Secret information) 12 August 2020 20: 09
              0
              smile there is nothing to introduce us - we already know this PERFECTLY wink
              1. 123 Offline 123
                123 (123) 12 August 2020 20: 26
                0
                there is nothing to introduce us - we already know this PERFECTLY

                You know someone else isn't. Let them be enlightened. hi
        2. Badger Offline Badger
          Badger (Dmitriy) 11 August 2020 10: 18
          0
          Well answered!
        3. Hayer31 Offline Hayer31
          Hayer31 (Kashchei) 11 August 2020 11: 17
          0
          So we got there, I mean Ivan, and you mean the idiot.
          The question is how to make the "travelers" stay in Russia, and who goes to the Reichstag does not get any better in Russia.
      2. Warrior Offline Warrior
        Warrior 10 August 2020 20: 12
        +1
        So the former republics of the USSR are NOT ATTRACTIVE and NOT NEEDED for Europe and the USA ...
        Therefore, they are END without Russia ...
      3. shinobi Offline shinobi
        shinobi (Yuri) 14 August 2020 05: 14
        +1
        Are you really that naive or have you included the deliberately stupid? With any "spontaneous expression of the will of the people" there are always agitators or instigators. Usually wallpaper. They pursue their goals, voluntarily or paid - the fifth thing. Behind any riots there is always someone's specific selfish interest. Extras are used in the dark and are the first to be attacked with bayonets. Always. Everywhere. What is only taught in history schools? Methods and methods have not changed for centuries, like man. Only its technological environment has changed.
  5. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 10 August 2020 14: 12
    -4
    Expert: Russia suffers geopolitical defeat

    - Yes, Russia is suffering a colossal "geopolitical defeat" ... - Moreover ... - with its indistinct; incomprehensible; With an absurd foreign policy, Russia in general may soon find itself on the political sidelines of the world ...
    - Russia lost so mediocrely to Ukraine in all its good endeavors that no "Soloviev evenings", where our political scientists (one more zealous than the other) constantly prove Ukraine is wrong, its erroneous course, the policy of its mediocre president, the economic collapse of Ukraine, its dependence on Western funding ... etc ... etc ...; that, it would seem ... - Ukraine has already disintegrated a hundred times and perished, and its entire territory has grown with weeds ... - But Ukraine ... - acquires new weapons, equips the army with new ammunition and uniforms; conducts constantly some kind of military exercises, etc. etc...
    - Yes, the actions of Ukraine (its law enforcement agencies) do not differ in jewelry and filigree precision and ingenuity ... - but to harm and successfully resist Russia ... - and such "work" is quite enough ... - Take at least the last actions in Belarus (with a setup and subsequent arrest of "33 heroes") ... - everything is quite successful and quite destructive ...
    - Yes, and take Lukashenko himself ... - The website audience, like a single parrot, repeats the same thing ... - that, they say, here is Lukashenko, like Yanukovych ... can end up fleeing to Russia, etc ...
    - Yes ... it's high time for Lukashenka to start comparing with ... with ... with Erdogan, not with Yanukovych ...
    - And everyone is worried about ... - how Lukashenko will now have to apologize to Russia for his harsh statements ... - Hahah ... - No way ... - Or rather ... - just the same ... - how Erdogan allegedly once "apologized" for the destruction of a Russian plane (and then for the murdered Russian ambassador; and then he was somehow saved by Russian intelligence) ...
    - Today Lukashenka is beginning to resemble Erdogan more and more ... - Lukashenka has already received congratulations from Russia; as well as assurances of further fraternal friendship and cooperation ... - And all this from Russia ... - And what's next ??? - And then everything will be the same ... - Lukashenka will love Ukraine; and receive alimony from ... from Russia ... - Hahah ...
    1. _AMUHb_ Offline _AMUHb_
      _AMUHb_ (_AMUHb_) 10 August 2020 19: 46
      +1
      Irina
      It's not bad at all))) if you omit exactly the upper half of the post, it's tough and one-sided ...

      the commander cannot see the whole front
  6. King3214 Offline King3214
    King3214 (Sergius) 10 August 2020 19: 29
    -1
    "Georgian expert" is like "Ukrainian steppe expert", but in the mountains.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 10 August 2020 19: 47
      +2
      Pay first of all to what they say, and only then who speaks. Often the words of the enemy are the hard-hitting truth, and life in distorting mirrors is not noticing this, not the best solution ... Shapkozakidstvo never led to good ... And the Georgian author speaks the hard-hitting truth ...
      1. King3214 Offline King3214
        King3214 (Sergius) 10 August 2020 20: 53
        +1
        I understand the Little Russian dialect of the Russian language (now called the "Ukrainian language"), but for more than 10 years now I have skipped all texts in the "Ukrainian language" without reading.
        And never regretted it.
        Maybe, after all, it is worth paying attention to who writes?
        1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 11 August 2020 09: 24
          -1
          Live further in your looking glass ...
          1. King3214 Offline King3214
            King3214 (Sergius) 11 August 2020 10: 14
            0
            Have a nice one you too!
      2. Badger Offline Badger
        Badger (Dmitriy) 11 August 2020 10: 14
        -1
        And what truth did he say?
  7. RFR Offline RFR
    RFR (RFR) 10 August 2020 21: 57
    +3
    And since when did the opinion of stupid Gabunis become authoritative?
  8. The comment was deleted.
  9. Badger Offline Badger
    Badger (Dmitriy) 11 August 2020 10: 13
    0
    Cheap "eksPerD" from the stable.
  10. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 12 August 2020 00: 15
    +3
    With logic, Georgians have a complete paragraph.

    If in the first years after the collapse of the Soviet Union the Kremlin had to manage conflicts only in small and poor Georgia and Moldova, now Moscow's area of ​​responsibility has become much more noticeable.
    After the Ukrainian crisis, the text notes, Donetsk and Luhansk became part of the "empire" of Russia, where Syria later found itself. "

    Hence the "logical" conclusion is drawn: Russia is the Khan.
    They are simply offended that they were not captured and fed again. But there was nothing left until Tbilisi ...
    But the economy of the Russian Federation will definitely not pull the Georgians. Appetites and inclination for freebies are known throughout the USSR. So, the guys themselves, only themselves.