The price of betrayal: what will Lukashenka pay for his long tongue


On the eve of the presidential elections in Belarus, events began to accelerate and 2 days before them flashed like the windows of a courier train. We were just discussing the next message of the President of the Republic of Belarus, with which the dad addressed the nation (specially postponed for this from April to August), as he has already issued two hour interview to a very specific, with a rotten smell, journalist from Ukraine Dmitry Gordon, in which he praised himself and Putin (and Putin more often) and scolded all Ukrainian presidents, including the current one. It's kind of strange, you must admit, starting from the choice of media and ending with the content of the content.


In Russia, scandalous news about the fighters of PMC Wagner, where they were going and why, and whether the dad would give them to Ukraine or not, as on Friday morning a scandal erupted that immediately eclipsed all the previous ones. The journalist of "Komsomolskaya Pravda" Alexander Kots somehow suspiciously dug out in time that behind this provocation it was not even the FSB of the Russian Federation that was hiding, but the ears of Ukraine and its special services were sticking out, which organized a classic operation "under a false flag", surpassing even their teachers from Langley than forced to respect themselves. Although the handwriting shows that it was the specialists from Langley who worked, this level of cover is clearly not available to any home-grown Ukrainian "knights of the cloak and dagger".

Over the years, we have become accustomed to the fact that the SBU cannot boast of anything outstanding, but here is an operation that left three presidents in a fool at once, including its own. It is still not clear whether Zelensky knew about the impending provocation or not, and how, after that, one should assess his readiness to consecrate the past elections with his presence and the request to transfer captured "war criminals" from Wagner to Ukraine. But the fact that the daddy got caught up in this is a fact. And even to Putin, the SBU threw up problems, forcing him to puzzle how to react to the demarche and anti-Russian attacks of its Belarusian counterpart.

It would seem that such a success, but somehow all Ukrainian media, not to mention foreign ones, reacted with a suspiciously sluggish reaction to it. This news was immediately picked up only in the Russian Federation, which is again strange. International scandal and silence, which is suggestive. For example, does the Russian Federation thereby give the old man the opportunity to save face and get out of the scandal with the Wagner PMC with minimal losses? During this time, the dad has already spoken for three life sentences, but if the Turkish sultan was forgiven for the downed plane and the murdered ambassador, then why can't the dad be forgiven for stupid chatter, especially since Moscow has no other choice. Or Alexander Grigorievich, who is faced with a fact either with us, or for scrap, or it is not clear who, it is not clear when, with what prospects are not clear. Therefore, I fully admit that Moscow could lend a bridge to daddy to save his business reputation by organizing a controlled drain of dosed information from its own special services through the KP journalist. Why not? Very much in the spirit of asymmetric Putin.

All opponents of Putin could get used to the fact that he never makes reckless and abrupt moves, which compares favorably with his Turkish and Belarusian counterparts. Those, like twin brothers, in similar situations behave in the same way, like elephants in a china shop, lavishing threats that then have to be answered. Therefore, one should not be surprised at the behavior of the President of Belarus, in this situation he is no better than Erdogan, and even worse, because our brother is by blood, and we had the right to count on him.

In this statement, the word “were” is especially important. They could count, but after what he said, no longer. And what was Putin to do in this situation? Endure and forget? Or watch Belarus sail off to the West? It is clear that no one is waiting for my father there, but the territory will definitely come in handy for our enemies, and a place has already been prepared for her in the “Lublin polygon”. Such a credible place, an outpost of Poland on our western borders, from where they can still do a lot of nasty things to us, starting with the Yamal-EU gas pipeline and ending with the Belarusian military-industrial complex, imprisoned for the Russian Federation. Therefore, Putin did not have much choice here, what to do with his father. Of course, save!

Turkish experience teaches nothing


So it was 5 years ago with his Turkish counterpart, when for the first time since 1949, since the formation of NATO, the bloc's plane shot down a Russian military bomber carrying out a combat mission under its own flag. Then Erdogan decided to go all-in and demonstrate to Putin his coolness. And he demonstrated. It reminded me of a cowboy who shot himself in the foot. And what have you achieved? The cartridges were real ...

But then Putin still gave him a chance to drive off beautifully. Prior to the announcement of Prime Minister Davutoglu about the destruction of the Russian Su-24M by the Turkish Air Force, Russian media were still actively spreading reports that our plane could be shot down from the ground. And who knows these "barmaley", where did they get surface-to-air missiles, maybe Ukraine supplied? And what will become of her. Well, Putin didn't need a confrontation with Turkey. But Erdogan had a will of steel, and it started:

"Shot down with an air-to-air missile on my personal order, and so it will be with everyone who flies into our airspace!"

Well, and what has not a person's life, one asks - a good house, a good wife, what else is needed to calmly meet old age? But no! And I have always said that at the current political freak show, the only figure of equal caliber to Putin is Recep Erdogan. He has also been in power for almost 20 years. He also did a lot for his country. The only trouble is the craving for demonstrative actions and demonstrative actions. I'm even ready to die - but beautiful. With a saber bald. More precisely, with a scimitar ...

And it almost died, NATO then froze, leaving the imprudent Sultan alone with the Russian Aerospace Forces. And Erdogan freaked out, falling into a two-day stupor, then his premiere had to take the rap for him. Yes, Erdogan played for high stakes then. Yes, I bluffed. Forgetting that this is possible with anyone, but not with Vladimir Putin! It is foolish, you know, to rush with a saber against German tanks, or rather, with a yatagan against the "Armata". How it ended, you know. Then the Turkish scythe found on the stone. On a Russian stone ... And then the Sultan did not get off with tomatoes.

A victim of manipulative behavior


Lukashenko, on the other hand, is a mirror copy of Erdogan, they have the same psychotype, they are both very impulsive, ambitious and reflexive, which makes it easier to manipulate them if desired, turning them into victims of reflexive control, since their reactions are easily calculated and they can be controlled by pressing one or another a button. That is what the SBU demonstrated in this case (we say SBU, we understand Langley).

In this whole story with the Wagner PMC, the following fact is especially remarkable, to which not everyone paid attention. Specialists from the SBU, unwillingly, by their actions confirmed Putin's words that the Russian Federation and its power structures have nothing to do with such private military companies, which act at their own peril and risk, pursuing their private, sometimes narrow-minded, sometimes misunderstood as public, personal goals. This time, too, Putin was confronted with the fact that his people were on the territory of the Republic of Belarus in order to carry out certain specific tasks outside the external contour of the Russian Federation. This indirectly confirms the fact that in the Donbass the people who ended up there in the ranks of the LPR militia did not carry out Putin's personal order, but acted at their own peril and risk, obeying their personal ideas about good and evil. By the way, from the documents published by the KP it is clear that 33 heroes went abroad to perform not even military, but security functions, which finally buries the image of mercenaries - "wild geese", although all of them had a military past.

And don't be worried about their fate. Wagner PMCs are good as a bargaining chip and an element of pressure on the Russian Federation as long as they are in the KGB RB pre-trial detention center. As soon as (and if, God forbid) their dad hands over to Ukraine, he will immediately lose his main trump card - there will be nothing to blackmail, Ukraine will continue to blackmail, and dad will turn into a Judas-traitor who stuck a knife in Putin's back. Does dad need this? It is clear that no. Therefore, there is no need to worry about the fate of 33 heroes. The dad will return them, as soon as the wave of opposition protests in Belarus, expected immediately after the elections, comes down (and now, due to the circumstances that have opened, most likely even earlier).

All this is well understood by Putin. The bargaining is just going on. Old Man went for broke and went with trump cards. But in the buy-in, and Putin knows it, there is nothing. And dad knows this too - he will be hanged on the very first tree as soon as he lies under the West and gives up part of the powers to the opposition. The West does not need Europe's last dictator. Only the Kremlin needs it. The main thing here is not to overdo it with the demands, then the Kremlin will no longer need him, they will include plan "B" - replacing the dictator with a puppet controlled by the Russian Federation. And the father’s plan “Favorite dictator and his son Kolya” will collapse along with the father’s head. From the very beginning it was sewn with white thread - RB is not feudal Asia and here power is not inherited.

But Lukashenka is not at all our main problem, because Lukashenka come and go, but the people of Belarus remain. Like the peoples of Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, all our Central Asian republics, Azerbaijan and even the Baltic states, have you forgotten anyone? Only with the Turks we have nothing in common, only common interests, which have now temporarily coincided.

Kremlin's choice


But back to our rams. More precisely, one of them - Belarusian. To all people pathetically wringing their hands in anticipation of the results of the past elections, and asking how long we will endure this Judas, I suggest just listening to this video, since it is not great.


This is the Russian political scientist Oleg Bondarenko. I emphasize once again - Russian! Listen carefully - isn't he right? We must be aware of simple and obvious things - sooner or later you have to pay for everything! And for the alliance too. And those who do not want to pay will get another Ukraine, only now in Belarus. Want to? There are no free cakes. Everything has a price. And peace and tranquility on our borders - too. I am not sure that the cost of maintaining the Russian army is cheaper. Although I do not deny that it is the army and the navy that are the only guarantors of our sovereignty and well-being, allowing us to conduct an independent external and internal policies.

Have you listened to Bondarenko? Now tell me, what choice does the Kremlin have? Not recognizing elections? So, what is next? Where are the pro-Russian candidates for the post of President of the Republic of Belarus? Something I don't see them there. But the line has already lined up from the pro-Western. And whoever pays, as you know, calls the tune. But Russia is not ready to pay for its allied relations. Is it any surprise that the former allies are changing course and declaring a multi-vector approach, trying to maneuver between the hammer of the Russian Federation and the anvil of the West. They just have no other choice, we did not leave them this choice. So why take offense at the daddy, who has gone all out and has already reached the point of open blackmail? Russia deliberately renounced "soft power", concentrating on "hard" power, strengthening the army and navy, leaving the internal contour of the post-Soviet countries to the external one. We renounced our interests wherever possible, starting with the Baltic States, Georgia, Armenia, Moldova, Central Asian republics, and ending with Ukraine and Belarus. The Russian Federation is losing its outskirts, explaining that there is no money for everything. But our enemies have them. They know very well and remember that he who sows the wind will reap the storm! This is an example of our short-sighted reckless policy (going from one extreme to another).

Even China, we have to pay extra for the fact that it buys our gas. I am already silent about Turkey - the sultan simply twisted our hands with the Turkish Stream, which is now idle, with the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, and with the purchase of our S-400 Triumph, which he immediately handed over to the Americans to study its weaknesses for possible counteraction. What can I say, even if Serbia refused to buy our S-400 air defense systems in favor of Chinese counterparts just because they are cheaper. Those are allies! And why is Belarus worse? At least he does not give his planes to the Americans for testing. Yes, she feeds herself at our expense, but what should she do if she does not have her own resources and has nowhere to take? Poor country, but with a very proud president. And this factor must also be taken into account. Old Man is not Putin at all! Another psychotype. Yes, Putin is quiet against his background. He does not like publicity and ostentation, clearly weighed down by this. But Alexander Grigorievich blooms like a May rose under the rays of spotlights. And this moment can even be used for your own good. What Putin did now, although the sediment, of course, remained.

Summary


Erdogan in 2015, it seems, foresaw everything, did not take into account only one point that Putin does not know only one thing - to lose. For which he paid. What will Lukashenka pay for his long tongue, we will see in the near future.
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  1. rotkiv04 Offline
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 10 August 2020 08: 28
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    Author, are you even in yourself? How can we give an opportunity to get out of the situation with the downed Su-24, for this it is necessary to punish, and not with tomatoes, like Putin, but at least, shoot down their plane.
    1. Volkonsky Offline
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 10 August 2020 09: 02
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      Comrade, learn the mat. part! For anyone with a bad memory, I'll just quote a few lines:
      What did Putin say to him? And Putin said that these are all fairy tales from the Vienna Woods. At a joint press conference with Hollande, he said:

      ... Regarding our planes that the Turkish Air Force allegedly did not recognize .... Ruled out! Impossible! They have identification marks and are clearly visible. These are our planes, and not some others ... This is all nonsense! .. Excuses! It is a pity that instead of understanding seriously, deeply, working to ensure that this never happens again, we hear such vague explanations and statements that there is nothing to even apologize for ... Well, well, this is not our choice - this is the choice of the Turkish side….

      And the very next morning this choice began to take on quite real outlines ... And not at all those that the Turkish side was counting on. Vova answered. And it seemed a little to nobody! The earth shook. And the Chuchmeks watching all this did not have time to run to the bar: “Allah-akbar! - Alla, I'm going to the bar! Our strategic and front-line aviation, sea- and air-based “Calibers”, multiple launch rocket systems (“Grads” and “Hurricanes”), as well as heavy flamethrower systems (the famous TOS-1 “Buratino”), which were in service with the Syrian army, operated. We worked on points and on squares, leveling the terrain to "zero", where the militants stood yesterday, who shot and disfigured our pilot. It is safe to say that the 10th Coastal Brigade, which was lit up when our pilot was killed, no longer exists. Basically! It was glazed, rolled into granite, wiped off the face of the earth and glazed again. And the living envied the dead. "Alla, I'm going to the bar!" - you yourself heard it. And Erdogan cursed the day five times when he got behind the wheel of his vacuum cleaner, contacting the Russians. But this was only the beginning ... Because the very next day the Moskva missile cruiser, equipped with the Fort air defense system, the ship's analogue of the S-300 Favorit, entered the Mediterranean Sea, and our Ruslan landed at the Khmeimim airbase with a launcher SAM S-400 "Triumph", and already tomorrow no one flew anywhere. Neither amerovskie planes, nor Turkish. Yes, and somehow dumb to fly, when you are already on the runway (runway), the device shows that the board is illuminated by an enemy air defense system. And with "Triumphs" such jokes are bad, and "Allah-akbar!" do not have time to shout. Russian air and land-based air defense systems calmly and efficiently covered the entire perimeter of Syria. And not only Syria. Vova said: "Sit!" And they are already sitting and will be sitting! And who will not sit - he will lie ... in the Syrian land. This applies to the entire Turkish Air Force. You can fly - but only over your own garden. And this is all that Erdogan has achieved.

      If you want more details, then this is here -

      https://proza.ru/2015/12/05/2191
      1. rotkiv04 Offline
        rotkiv04 (Victor) 10 August 2020 09: 42
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        You, my friend, teach materiel yourself, I said that Putin should not have given Erdogan a chance to get out, but immediately shoot down his plane, and all these hailstones that plowed mountains are sparrows from a cannon. So, before sprinkling articles, think a little with your head, writer, damn it.
        1. Volkonsky Offline
          Volkonsky (Vladimir) 10 August 2020 10: 03
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          Reader, damn it ... An F-16 of the Turkish Air Force shot down a Russian Su-24M with an air-to-air missile from its territory. Whom and where was Putin supposed to shoot down ?!
          1. rotkiv04 Offline
            rotkiv04 (Victor) 10 August 2020 10: 36
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            Are you pretending? I repeat to you in Russian - the answer had to be adequate, since they were shot down from the territory of Turkey, it means that it was necessary to shoot down from the territory of Syria, otherwise Putin now has Erdogan, who knows that there will be no answer for everything he does, and, by the way, he did not answer for the ambassador either, just don’t say that he was not there.
            1. shinobi Offline
              shinobi (Yuri) 10 August 2020 11: 52
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              You, comrade, have forgotten that in addition to the NATO aircraft itself (we read the USA), there is also American tactical nuclear weapons at Turkish air bases. Turkey is a NATO member, if that. The downing of any aircraft over Turkish territory is a direct attack on the alliance. The fifth paragraph and all that. This is a completely different alignment, which the Sultan was counting on. But Putin paused, which was immediately taken advantage of by the Yankees, making it clear to the Sultan that in this scenario he was alone with Russia. And the Turks began to beat. Wherever they could reach. At the same time, all their aviation sat for two weeks at the bases like a mouse under a broom, and the Yankees took their nuclear weapons out of harm's way. The crisis was worse than the Caribbean one and has not yet resolved.
              1. rotkiv04 Offline
                rotkiv04 (Victor) 10 August 2020 19: 35
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                In your opinion, if a NATO country shoots down an aircraft from the Russian Federation, then Russia has no right to an adequate answer, and yet what has it to do with where was the launch vehicle from which the missile was launched? The question, of course, is rhetorical and everyone knows the answer to it, just not everyone can come to terms with this answer.
                1. shinobi Offline
                  shinobi (Yuri) 14 August 2020 04: 58
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                  The answer was and continues to this day. Only it happens quietly. In Syria, the air force will "accidentally" cover the barracks with instructors, and the convoy of equipment has been gouged at the border. In Libya, "unknown" MIGs will cover the runway and aircraft. The Sultan's cries are of little interest to anyone. NATO disowned him. Moreover, in a quiet way, not because they hide it, but because it has become a routine. Not interested. Nobody cares.
            2. andrew42 Offline
              andrew42 (Andrei) 10 August 2020 19: 36
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              This is the difference between Putin (and his staff in a broad sense) from many impulsive reflective leaders, like the same Erdogan and Old Man Lukashenka. (And I am far from deifying our guarantor, especially because of the personification of the oligarch-capitalist system within the country). But here everything is done 100% correctly, without errors. The situation in Syria was precarious, the pilot could not be returned, and it was necessary to "win the war" and not engage in personal revenge on Erdogan. To provoke another enemy (Turkey) to stand in the same front with our enemies (USA, ISIS, "coalition"), and to stand there immediately (!) Is an unforgivable stupidity. Despite the fact that even now the Russian contingent in Syria is very, very small, and then it was generally symbolic, plus there was no combat capability of the SAR units. A full-fledged response to Turkish mercenaries is the best and most effective measure. The fact that it was not very loud, just means that the Turkish side was severely sobering up, without having the opportunity to strike a new blow, and therefore silence. You always need a result, not a cock swoop with a stupid puff.
              1. rotkiv04 Offline
                rotkiv04 (Victor) 10 August 2020 19: 39
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                Well, after all, nothing has changed, Turkey as it was and remained an enemy, but everyone understood that Russia would not answer anyone.
              2. vetchinckin.iur Offline
                vetchinckin.iur (yura vetchinkin) 15 August 2020 12: 15
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                And remember that after some time the Kurds got MANPADS and a helicopter, and the two pilots were gone. And yes, the Kurds did not use MANPADS either before or after.
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  3. Bakht Offline
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 10 August 2020 08: 51
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    The author is wrong on the main point.
    An ally has to be paid - that's right. But ALLY. Russia paid Ukraine. Does everyone know the result? Now it is proposed to pay to Belarus. Putting your hand on your party card (sorry, on your heart), is Belarus really an ally?
    When Belarus proves that it is an ally, then we can talk about money. Until then, I see no ally. The Belarusian miracle is based on Russian money and on the Russian market. The West can hardly pull Ukraine. Europe doesn’t want to shoulder Belarus as well. Hence the inadequate calls to Russia to pay for the next anti-Russian project.
    1. Dear sofa expert. 10 August 2020 11: 01
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      ... Now it is proposed to pay to Belarus. Putting your hand on your party card (sorry, on your heart), is Belarus really an ally?

      And what is “ally” in your understanding? Today's reality is that any state loyal to the country can already be called an allied state.
      Americans pay all, without exception, their "allies." Even the "2% bribe" from NATO members is nothing more than an ordinary formality, given the ratio of participation in financing in the bloc's budget. The Americans are well aware that in the event of a war, they will have to fight in essence.
      The "allies" will do it, at best, "out of hand." After all, even the notorious "fifth article" of the NATO charter, if we discard the lyrics, obliges simply: "..." Potential opponents should realize that any attack on one of the NATO members will receive a response from all the countries of the alliance .. "No more, no smaller"!
      Get an answer! )
      What reply???
      An "Expression of Deep Concern"?
      "Mentally, we are with you"?

      Has Erdogan received much support from his NATO allies?
      They all at once disowned him like the plague.

      Is di Belorussia an ally of Russia?

      Definitely - yes, it is.

      Does she need to pay for it?

      Given today's realities, unfortunately yes.
      1. Bakht Offline
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 10 August 2020 18: 18
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        In the current realities, no one has "allies". But why pay? I don't understand this.
        An example is before my eyes. Did they pay Ukraine and what did they get? You don't have to pay, but build relationships. You to me - I to you. Unfortunately, this is the reality at the moment. But personally, I do not like paying very much. And I don't consider someone who demands payment for a good attitude as an ally.
        In the limitrophes, the prevailing opinion of the prostitute is "I will give myself to the one who pays more." And if the Balts and Ukraine have already surrendered and the bargaining is over, then Lukashenka is now the most hardened God forgive me in the post-Soviet space. The principle "if we are not together, we will hang one by one." This is not for the limitrophe.
        -----
        http://slushat-tekst-pesni.ru/bulat-okudzhava/soyuz-druzei-vozmemsya-za-ruki-druzya
        1. Dear sofa expert. 10 August 2020 19: 21
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          In the current realities, no one has "allies". But why pay? I don't understand this.

          For loyalty, for a place for a base, if you like. You remember how much it cost to rent a base in Sevastopol, and Baikonur in Kazakhstan, Polygons (ibid.).

          An example is before my eyes. Did they pay Ukraine and what did they get?

          Well, by the way, and an example in the topic: They paid for many years (for their own) base, the Ukrainians got into the bottle, began to threaten to break the contract, resell the base to the enemies (NATO), as a result - Crimea, and with Crimea back the base (now free ) got.

          In the limitrophes, the prevailing opinion of the prostitute is "I will give myself to the one who pays more."

          I agree. And there is. But they don't become prostitutes unnecessarily either. The reason for the need is another matter. Everyone, as they can, and adapts to life. Apparently, "such is the la vie") for the "mediocre". Bekov - bekov.
          1. Bakht Offline
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 10 August 2020 20: 00
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            We are waiting for news. Now they are the most controversial.
            If Lukashenka suppresses the rallies quickly enough (2-3 days), then he won. If the rallies last a week, it will be quite difficult for him.
            While the marker is one. Putin congratulated him on his election victory. This means that Putin decided to stake on Lukashenka. The rest are even worse for Russia. But dad will have to work out to the fullest. Roughly like a "woman with low social responsibility" on the panel. He can puff his cheeks and flaunt as much as he wants. Putin doesn't care. But whether the daddy will hold out is still unknown. The West was clearly betting on the Maidan. So the most interesting thing awaits us in the next 2-3 days.
            ----
            So far there is information that OMON has refused to disperse the demonstrators in three cities. And in the center of Minsk the police are on the side of Lukashenka.
            1. Digital error Offline
              Digital error (Eugene) 10 August 2020 20: 19
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              Quote: Bakht
              there is information that in three cities the OMON refused to disperse the demonstrators

              Interesting - can you share the link? Yesterday night there was information that Lukashenka's plane almost flew to Abkhazia (??) and, like, either he himself, or his family was there. Time is interesting, you never know who can "disperse" fakes. Lukashenka said today that social networks and mobile communications in Minsk are blocked from abroad in order to - attention - to annoy Belarusian citizens. Do not believe him, in fact ...
              1. Bakht Offline
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 10 August 2020 20: 32
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                https://belsat.eu/ru/news/razgony-po-vsej-belarusi/

                Pinsk, Kobrin. One more city must be looked for. This does not mean that the riot police have already gone over to the side of the people. But this must be taken into account. So Lukashenka must hurry.
                It is an updatable resource. I won't say that everything is true ... I just don't know. Information in hot pursuit.

                https://cont.ws/@Beria/1752282
                1. Bakht Offline
                  Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 10 August 2020 20: 34
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                  From the same site -

                  https://cont.ws/@Beria/1752282

                  WHERE IS LUKASHENKO?

                  At the moment, Lukashenka is in the "Krasny Bor" hunting farm with his oligarch Nikolai Vorobya. It is several dozen kilometers from Polotsk.

                  The protection of the inner perimeter, in addition to the presidential Security Council, is provided by mercenaries of the GardService PMC.

                  Gutseriev's business jet with a crew is located four kilometers away at a military airfield.
                2. Digital error Offline
                  Digital error (Eugene) 10 August 2020 20: 45
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                  Quote: Bakht
                  It is an updatable resource

                  Thank you for the link. hi

                  Quote: Bakht
                  I will not say that everything is true

                  This is not necessary - the truth as such does not exist, the concept is purely relative and each has its own ...

                  Quote: Bakht
                  OMON has already gone over to the side of the people

                  I have already heard this somewhere - it seems, in reports from Donbass in 2014 ("the police are with the people!"). Two years later, the Russian Guard was created in the Russian Federation - a coincidence? I do not know. request
            2. Dear sofa expert. 10 August 2020 20: 49
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              But whether the daddy will hold out is still unknown. The West was clearly betting on the Maidan.

              I think it will hold out. There will be no Maidan.
              You don't really believe in the "Maidan people", do you?
              Any revolution needs to be paid for by someone. Who orders the tune, he dances the girl.
              The West, although not particularly inventive, does not like to step on a rake there.
              5 billion "investments" in the square were enough for them. We thought it’s better, but it’s like with Crimea. And even Donbass in the appendage. That's the whole Maidan.
              They do not want to lose any "Suwalki corridor" under the Belarusian adventure.
              No, well, sticks in the wheels, these "political architects", of course, will try to put the next "5 billion into the pipe" neither the Congress, nor the Bundestag, nor any House of Lords will approve them anymore.
              1. Bakht Offline
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 10 August 2020 20: 55
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                Unfortunately, there is also the phenomenon of crowd psychology. Why do I say "unfortunately"? Because I saw such a crowd with my own eyes. The most difficult thing is to leave it. And I completely agree with Freud that in a crowd, the individual mind does not work. The collective mind is at work. And the crowd starts up with half a turn on any of the most stupid stuffing.
                There is another phenomenon of the crowd. The crowd acts according to the psychology of the lowest individual. It's like in a convoy of cars - the average speed of the convoy is equal to the speed of the slowest car. In a crowd, general intelligence is equal to that of the most unreasonable member.
                ----
                There is nothing you can do about it. You just have to wait for the results of the night acceleration. Most likely, the dad will hold out. But I would not bet 100%.
                1. Dear sofa expert. 10 August 2020 21: 03
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                  Unfortunately, there is also the phenomenon of crowd psychology.

                  Yes, just as there are tons of crowd control techniques.
                  It's a double-edged sword.
                  And I think that a person with a long experience of holding power has the skill of working with this stick.

                  https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dmitry_
                  Novikov5 / publication / 305279988_
                  Upravlenie_tolpoj_matematiceskie_modeli_
                  1. Bakht Offline
                    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 10 August 2020 21: 06
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                    This is, of course, interesting. But too much has been written. It is unlikely that anyone will study this now.
                    In the meantime, this crowd does not have a leader (Tikhanovskaya, it seems, backed up) and it has not yet formed. If Lukashenko can prevent the formation of a large crowd, then he will win.
                    ----
                    In any case, nothing extreme has happened yet. There are expressions of protest and discontent. There is no transition to action yet.
                    1. Dear sofa expert. 10 August 2020 21: 16
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                      This is, of course, interesting. But too much has been written. It is unlikely that anyone will study this now.

                      No, of course, I just wanted to show by this that the problem is not new, since entire institutions are working on such topics, so it makes no sense to bet on such.
                      But without provocations, it will not be unambiguous. They have already begun. That's the arrest of 33 Russians, too. A strong set-up, by the way, turned out.
                      Naturally, Lukashenka needs to be prepared for any surprises.
          2. Digital error Offline
            Digital error (Eugene) 10 August 2020 20: 25
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            Quote: Dear couch expert.
            Baikonur in Kazakhstan

            In vain they reminded me. lol Theft rate there

            https://tass.ru/ekonomika/6524185

            - equaled the cost of the annual rent:

            https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3535480

            And in the meantime, "while Elon Musk's ships plow the expanses of the Universe", it is proposed to decorate Russian spaceships with Khokhloma and Gzhel.

            https://ria.ru/20200810/1575583674.html

            And this "news" is published by the federal media. good When you read and see this, you begin to doubt your own normality. request
            1. Dear sofa expert. 10 August 2020 20: 57
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              Theft rate there

              Not without this, as, however, and Musk is not a saint.
  4. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 10 August 2020 08: 54
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    Wah! What a wonderful author.
    According to the article, one had to pretend and lie to Erdogan and Putin that the plane was shot down by someone on the left ... Lie, lie and lie ..

    And Erdogan told the truth, we immediately caught him in ties with ISIS, but very quickly became friends with the terrorists' accomplice.
    ISIS, not ISIS, but money for gas and weapons does not smell.

    So it will be with Lukashenka for sure.
    1. rotkiv04 Offline
      rotkiv04 (Victor) 10 August 2020 09: 43
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      So the author, in my opinion, himself did not understand what he was doing.
  5. Arkharov Offline
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 10 August 2020 08: 59
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    I look at everything, they have taken into account about Putin and Lukashenko, everything has been put on the shelves, how it should be and how it will be. Only one thing was not taken into account - the existence and mood of the Belarusian people.
  6. Alexander Ivanov_3 (Alexander Ivanov) 10 August 2020 09: 23
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    Where are the pro-Russian candidates?

    The author is openly hypocritical .. Baboryko is a man who works in the daughter of Gazprom, the head of Belgazprombank. Tikhanovsky came from Moscow. Tsepkalo fled to Moscow. And the Kremlin has nothing to do with these candidates. Rafik has absolutely nothing to do with it!))) This is all the machinations of the State Department!))) And Wagner's sheep were there not to arrange a "heavenly hundred" in Minsk, but to have a cultural rest. And in general, as always, they were framed by the Ukrainians and the State Department))) Yes, GDP is the State Department. No one has done more than Putin to destroy Russia and destroy any possibility of unification.
    1. Volkonsky Offline
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 10 August 2020 09: 32
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      Uh, how everything is running with us ... Tsepkalo fled to Moscow, and ended up in Kiev. How so? The trouble is just ... Baboryko worked growing up. bank so what? Gref heads the Russian Sberbank, are you sure he works for the Russian Federation? Tikhanovsky came from Moscow, so what? Ganapolsky is also from Moscow ...
    2. Igor Pavlovich Offline
      Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 10 August 2020 10: 24
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      ... No one has done more than Putin to destroy Russia and destroy any possibility of unification.

      - fiercely plus !!!!!!!!!!!!
  7. Netyn Offline
    Netyn (Netyn) 10 August 2020 10: 21
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    Quote: Volkonsky
    Uh, how everything is running with us ...

    Hmm, for the first time I agree with you. There is also the Maidan of the Brain.
  8. NoN importa Offline
    NoN importa (NoN importa) 10 August 2020 10: 22
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    Quote: Volkonsky
    Uh, how everything is running with us ... Tsepkalo fled to Moscow, and ended up in Kiev. How so? The trouble is just ... Baboryko worked growing up. bank so what? Gref heads the Russian Sberbank, are you sure he works for the Russian Federation? Tikhanovsky came from Moscow, so what? Ganapolsky is also from Moscow ...

    I read detailed analytics with the final thought that Lukashenka deliberately cleared out the pro-Russian field in order to own it alone. That's why the problems, in principle ...
  9. Sapsan136 Offline
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 10 August 2020 10: 44
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    Sly political corpse today! Only a madman can expect normal relations with the Russian Federation from him, so the Russian Federation no longer has any reason to support Belarus, and without this Belarus will quickly turn into Somalia, according to the Ukrainian scenario.
  10. Netyn Offline
    Netyn (Netyn) 10 August 2020 11: 18
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    Belarus had every chance to wake up in a country of democracy, gay parades and other Somalia like Ukraine. But Europe's last dictator, Lukashenko, ruined everything. I did not allow the blogger's wife to become the president of a country with 9 million population (in this place I invariably begin to laugh, an excellent replacement, it will be cooler than Navalny). As a last resort, the fighters against the regime appointed Tikhanovskaya as President of Belarus on Wikipedia. But even this did not break the tyrant.

    What else to add. Yanukovych betrayed Berkut in 2014. And Lukashenko did not betray his security officials in 2020. The difference is obvious.

    https://zergulio.livejournal.com/7023342.html
  11. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 10 August 2020 11: 26
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    The author seems to have escaped from ward 6? I decided to grease myself with my sycophant towards Solovyov and Kiselev. Another article and another delirium.
  12. Lysik001 Offline
    Lysik001 (boy Seryozha) 10 August 2020 11: 26
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    Will not pay with anything! Because two boots are a pair! What's one, what's the other. Both will continue to mock their peoples.
    1. Sergey Tokarev Offline
      Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 10 August 2020 15: 20
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      And it will not understand. It's Lukashenko. He will bulge his eyes in surprise and squeak "what about me for sho?" ...
  13. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 10 August 2020 15: 40
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    - Generally ... - it's just scary to think ... - and if Lukashenko had not won the election ... - What would have happened now ... - Cowardly Russia could hardly send its troops into the territory of Belarus; but both Poland and Ukraine would easily have introduced their own motorized infantry, tanks and paratroopers ...
    - And ... and then what ??? - And then Belarus would have been crammed into NATO in a matter of weeks (and Ukraine, which had distinguished itself "in time, caved in" ... - too) ...
    - And it doesn't even matter ... - whoever would replace Lukashenko in Belarus ... - what's the difference ... - it's just a no brainer that the "correct president" would come ... - the "new bulk" would come, or a "new Pashinyan", or someone else like these ... - and even today Moscow would be straining with its last strength ... - What to do ??? - And what to do ???
    - No, Lukashenko is still a fine fellow ... for a long time he averted such a misfortune from Russia ...
    - Personally, I wish Lukashenka ... - to disperse all this purchased fraternity as soon as possible, which today is causing riots in the streets of cities in Belarus and ... and to come to Moscow to establish new relations between Russia and Belarus ...
    1. Sergey Tokarev Offline
      Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 10 August 2020 15: 55
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      For a new portion of loans, which he will never return, but he will surely pour a shit on Russia ... well, he can't help but impose a pile on his neighbor in front of the door as a token of gratitude.
      1. Bulanov Offline
        Bulanov (Vladimir) 11 August 2020 15: 36
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        New loans in exchange for the recognition of Crimea and the state status of the Russian language.
        1. Sergey Tokarev Offline
          Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 11 August 2020 17: 36
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          Crimea feels normal even without the recognition of potato-heads. And they will learn Russian themselves when migrant workers come to Russia to throw shit with a shovel. Well, if they want, they can learn Lithuanian ... there every day new factories open and young people from all over Europe are in line to work in Lithuania)))
    2. andrew42 Offline
      andrew42 (Andrei) 10 August 2020 19: 46
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      Thus, the "Russian" critics of Lukashenka are diligently keeping silent about the prospects for "democratization" of Belarus. They constantly poke at phrases, remarks, some "facts" pulled out. And the essence of the whole performance is as simple as twenty ruble - either union Belarus, or "Belarus-tse Evropa - AntiRussia". The stakes of the real game are much higher than Lukashenka's picking against Russian oligarchs, or an awkward flirtation with the “West”. And yet, yes, I agree with one of the authors above - you will have to pay for the union. The transition of Belarus to the anti-Russian camp will bring losses and costs by 2 orders of magnitude more, and our "competitors" have green money like a fool's makhorka, they will print it and bring it, if anything.
      1. Sergey Tokarev Offline
        Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 11 August 2020 17: 46
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        Not bad at least to read Rogers ... the "competitors" of green papers have already been printed ... they are beginning to hiccup. Have you made an anti-Russia from Ukraine, filled it up with green papers? The whole world laughs from these holy fools. And their anti-Russian character blows away like the wind when they go to work as workers in Russia.
        1. andrew42 Offline
          andrew42 (Andrei) 11 August 2020 19: 30
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          That is why they do not feel sorry for the greenery, because they have finished printing. But in the countries of the 3rd world, greenery works properly - to bribe the elites and settle accounts with maydauns and skakuas.
          1. Sergey Tokarev Offline
            Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 11 August 2020 19: 52
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            ... "greenery" in the trade between Russia and China already occupies half of the volume and continues to fall ... you can glue the toilet with them ... jumping maydauns and a mirror with beads will go ... or you can just promise panties from Europe and not give )))
  14. Cheburashk Offline
    Cheburashk (Vladimir) 10 August 2020 16: 05
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    but what should she do if her resources are not there and there is nowhere to take?

    At least do not get impudent and know when to stop, otherwise you can burst inadvertently.

    Old Man is not Putin at all

    With such a "father" I want to become an orphan !!!!!! Based on the above stated in the article, I have a question: after all the hysteria of Lukashenka, his actions and everything that he said to him, that we need to help further ???? Here the credibility of Russia is at stake with all that it implies, so to speak!
    1. Sergey Tokarev Offline
      Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 10 August 2020 16: 30
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      Bulbash and "dad" do not care about Putin's authority. They want to eat)) and then the neighbor will have nothing to shit with.
  15. 123 Offline
    123 (123) 10 August 2020 17: 30
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    Listen carefully - isn't he right? We must be aware of simple and obvious things - sooner or later you have to pay for everything! And for the alliance too. And those who do not want to pay will get another Ukraine, only now in Belarus. Want to? There are no free cakes. Everything has a price.

    You can look at the situation from the Belarusian coast. Exactly all the same can be attributed to her. But no one is in a hurry to pay something. Not at all. It all comes down to imitation and certain rhetoric. As soon as the cash flow dries up, the volume goes down. Maybe buy a player cheaper?
    If Lukashenka pretends to fulfill allied obligations, Russia should pretend to pay.

    Even China, we have to pay extra for the fact that it buys our gas.

    How's that? belay

    S-400 "Triumph", which immediately handed over to the Americans to study its weaknesses for possible counteraction

    Erdogan handed over the S-400 to the Americans? Are you sure?

    even Serbia refused to buy our S-400 air defense systems in favor of Chinese counterparts just because they are cheaper

    Serbia simply does not have money for the S-400, they bought it, which is cheaper, is this a betrayal?
    1. Volkonsky Offline
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 11 August 2020 08: 23
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      How's that?
      The power of Siberia was built at their own expense, the contract price of gas is classified, comrade. Xi bluntly twisted Comrade's hands. Pu, taking advantage of our hopeless situation (if they do not allow gas to be supplied to the West, there is no one to the North, there is no one to the East, it remains only to the South - to the PRC, not to supply it to the Moon?)

      Erdogan handed over the S-400 to the Americans? Are you sure?
      Google the news. I haven’t sent it yet, but it is already going to receive amerovsky F-35 fighters.

      Serbia simply does not have money for the S-400, they bought it, which is cheaper, is this a betrayal?
      No, but ask the Saudis why they bought amerovskih weapons for 100 yards of dollars? And why did the Indians give up our planes, although they are cheaper and better? This is politics!
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) 11 August 2020 12: 55
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        The power of Siberia was built at their own expense, the contract price of gas is classified, comrade. Xi bluntly twisted Comrade's hands. Pu, taking advantage of our hopeless situation (if they do not allow gas to be supplied to the West, there is no one to the North, there is no one to the East, it remains only to the South - to the PRC, not to supply it to the Moon?)

        This is a common practice for Russian-Chinese projects. We build on our territory, the Chinese on ours. Remember the half-built bridge over the Amur? Everyone said, what a fine fellow the Chinese are, but ours will not finish building their half ... With the pipeline, the situation is rather the opposite ... You wanted the Chinese to build the pipeline themselves, at their own expense? Accordingly, on their own terms .... How from Turkmenistan?
        The fields from which Power of Siberia is filled are not connected to the main pipeline system. It is technically impossible to send it to the EU. Europe is not much different from the Moon in this. Closed information on the price does not automatically make the project unprofitable, especially since the chemical composition of the contents of the pipe is different, methane will go to China, everything else will be withdrawn for processing on our territory.

        https://magazine.neftegaz.ru/articles/pererabotka/547164-amurskiy-gpz-na-pike-stroitelstva-pervyy-gazopererabatyvayushchiy-zavod-na-dalnem-vostoke-stanet-odn/

        In addition, it is gasification of the Far East region.

        Google the news. Not yet submitted, but is already going to receive amerovsky F-35 fighters

        He has been going for a long time, is going to, but will not get ready. Such "leaks" come mainly from the United States. In addition, an export version was sold to the Turks.

        Serbia simply does not have money for the S-400, they bought it, which is cheaper, is this a betrayal?
        No, but ask the Saudis why they bought amerovskih weapons for 100 yards of dollars? And why did the Indians give up our planes, although they are cheaper and better? This is politics!

        The comparison is not entirely correct. First, the Saudis and Hindus have a better situation with money. Secondly, there are not so many politicians in this. I think that in this case it is permissible to conditionally divide the arms market into 2 groups, the American-European (NATO) and the Russian-Chinese. The Serbs did not buy into NATO, they just chose a cheaper one, albeit with worse characteristics. They don't mind buying the S-400, but there is no money. Russian and Chinese weapons often compete with each other in similar political conditions. Myanmar, Laos, Pakistan and so on. hi
        1. Volkonsky Offline
          Volkonsky (Vladimir) 11 August 2020 20: 06
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          Regarding the Turkish S-400:

          https://topcor.ru/15973-chto-poluchat-amerikancy-vykupiv-u-turok-rossijskie-zrk-s-400.html
          1. 123 Offline
            123 (123) 11 August 2020 23: 15
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            Thanks, looked. yes

            Judging by Ankara's statements, Turkey can still sell the S-400 air defense systems purchased from Russia to the United States.

            To be honest, the argument was not impressive. no What statements, who made them and when, is not clear. request The author did not consider it necessary to burden the readers with such details. The conclusion about a possible sale is highly doubtful. I do not exclude that it was only the author's rich imagination that allowed making it. Well, or he broadcasts US "Wishlist", in this case voiced by another American pensioner (Jim Townsend, a former NATO policy officer at the Pentagon).

            I think the US purchase of the S-400 from Turkey is a clever way to get Erdogan out of the mess he put himself into. And if it allows the Turks to take part in the F-35, so much the better.

            There is not a word of useful information in the article, only a colorful description of the "terrible consequences" of our next "short-sighted act". winked
  16. Yuri Bryanskiy Offline
    Yuri Bryanskiy (Yuri Bryansky) 10 August 2020 20: 57
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    Putin will not lose. He knows how to wait patiently.
  17. Dima Dima_2 Offline
    Dima Dima_2 (Dima Dima) 10 August 2020 21: 05
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    Long live Belarus!
  18. Alexey Semenenko (Alexey Semenenko) 10 August 2020 21: 27
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    What sparkling fireworks!

    I confess I could not read to the end. I liked very much how SBU Almighty shod three presidents and three (3) powerful intelligence services of the world .... and then - hop! and everything is revealed by a great journalist ...
    I'm sobbing ....
  19. Boragl Offline
    Boragl (Boragl) 11 August 2020 08: 04
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    Cowardly Russia could hardly send its troops into the territory of Belarus; but both Poland and Ukraine would easily introduce their own motorized infantry, tanks ...

    Still, you have something with your head ... did you get poisoned at lunch with something? Cowardly Russia would hardly be able to (Crimea, Syria, Libya, Venezuela .... etc.) But heroic Poland and Ukraine ... They would have easily introduced ... languages ​​to each other in the West .. Georgians have once introduced ... it's a pity they didn't finish them off and they didn't deprive them of their statehood.
  20. Badger Offline
    Badger (Dmitriy) 11 August 2020 09: 20
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    The penultimate paragraph is complete nonsense. Erdogan did not transfer the S-400, Russia pays nothing to China, Serbia also does not buy Chinese missiles.
    Pro-Western candidates for the presidency of the Republic of Belarus must understand that the country's economy is completely dependent on Russia. And the break in relations will hit Belarus harder than Ukraine, and Russia will not even notice.
    1. Volkonsky Offline
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 11 August 2020 09: 48
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      I answered above comrade. 123, read carefully:
      Regarding the additional payment of the PRC: The Power of Siberia was built at its own expense, the contract price of gas is classified, comrade. Xi bluntly twisted Comrade's hands. Pu, taking advantage of our hopeless situation (if they do not allow gas to be supplied to the West, there is no one to the North, there is no one to the East, it remains only to the South - to the PRC, not to supply it to the Moon?)

      About Turkish S-400s: Google the news. The Sultan has not yet handed it over, but is already going to receive amerovsky F-35 fighters.

      https://uainfo.org/blognews/1578155707-turtsiya-otdala-ssha-rossiyskiy-zrk-s-400-dlya-ego-izucheniya.html

      Regarding Serbia's refusal from our air defense systems in favor of the Chinese:

      https://topcor.ru/15873-kitajskie-zrk-vmesto-s-400-chem-prodiktovan-otkaz-serbii-pokupat-rossijskie-kompleksy.html
  21. reindeer Offline
    reindeer (reno renowich) 11 August 2020 16: 52
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    It's time to put Lukashka on his ass, otherwise the boy will start.
  22. reindeer Offline
    reindeer (reno renowich) 11 August 2020 16: 58
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    Erdogan had to be severely punished and Lukashenko too, Putin is messing with them, the Americans would have bombed everyone long ago.