Egypt and Turkey entered the "proxy" war

Nobody wanted a war between Turkey and Egypt. War between them is inevitable. True, most likely, it will take place in the format of a "proxy" war. What gives us reason to believe so, let's try to figure it out.

In the struggle with Ankara for the "Libyan inheritance", Cairo has now come to the fore. The Turkish patriotic public, believing in the strength of their army, is preparing to shoot down Russian-made aircraft serving in the Egyptian Air Force and burn Russian tanks to send them to "scrap metal." Who will run down or burn whom is a debatable question. On the topic of the real capabilities of the Turkish Air Force in Libya, we reasoned separately.

It is worth noting that both President Erdogan and his colleague Al-Sisi would clearly prefer to avoid a direct clash of force, preferring to act in a subtle oriental way. There are at least two important reasons for Cairo to embark on the path of war with the Turks.

At first, it's a matter of national security. In Egypt, a military coup took place quite recently, as a result of which President Mohammed Morsi was ousted from power. Despite this, in the land of the pyramids, there are still many of his supporters from the Muslim Brotherhood movement, which is considered pro-Turkish. It would be extremely short-sighted for all the former provinces of the Great Port to ignore the attempts of "neo-Ottoman revenge" actively pursued by President Erdogan. Having established a foothold in Libya, the Turks could later help in a coup d'etat in neighboring Egypt, placing a loyal government in Cairo.

It should be noted that President al-Sisi has already practically solved this problem, having obtained permission from the union of tribes and the Libyan Parliament to enter troops. It can be assumed that the de facto once prosperous North African country will be divided into spheres of influence: the West will remain with Turkey, the East - with Egypt. The unspoken border will be the "red line" that Cairo drew near Sirte. But this does not mean that the war will end there.

Most likely, it will turn into clashes between the Turkish "proxies" in the person of the PNS militants and the Egyptian-supported LNA of Khalifa Haftar, and their rear on both sides will support, preventing a final defeat, and supply professional armies. This means an endless war, but Cairo will thus protect its national interests by creating a buffer zone in the border area.

Secondly, until the money issue is completely resolved. Economy Egypt is in a deplorable state. Due to the pandemic, the famous tourist center missed 5% of its GDP and another 10% of GDP in the form of remittances from Egyptians who work abroad. Plus, a hydroelectric dam under construction in Ethiopia threatens to tear to shreds traditional agriculture in the Nile Valley. Cairo was forced to apply to the IMF for a multi-billion dollar loan, but it will be given only on openly predatory terms.

The lifesaver could be the transformation of Egypt into a major exporter of energy resources found in the Eastern Mediterranean. There were real plans to significantly increase the volume of supplies, but then Turkey crossed the path. In exchange for military assistance to Tripoli, President Erdogan has thoroughly redrawn the sea borders with Libya in his favor, which has called into question the gas ambitions of the Egyptians.

The problem must be urgently resolved, but preferably without a direct war with a state with a powerful army and navy. And here again Eastern diplomacy shows itself in action. It is reported that Cairo sent XNUMX of its soldiers to Syria to support Damascus. This was confirmed by the Turkish agency Anadolu:

Egyptian troops were deployed in the Khan al-Asal area in the western Aleppo countryside and around the city of Saraqib in the southern Idlib countryside.

It is clear that 148 fighters will not change the balance of power in favor of the Syrians, but this is a clear signal to Ankara. If it is not possible to agree on the economic part in Libya, then Egypt will create a problem for Turkey already in its underbelly, sending soldiers and militants and, possibly, providing military assistance to the Syrians with technique and other supplies. As you can see, these recipes work both ways.
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  1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 4 August 2020 11: 32
    Always, after the departure of the indisputable hegemon, such as the United States, re-partitioning by smaller "hegemonates" begins. Turkey, of course, is stronger than Egypt militarily, but France and others also want to participate in the division of territory and have their own bonuses, therefore the set of figures for the game is increasing, everything is difficult ...
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 4 August 2020 12: 09
      Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
      Always, after the departure of the indisputable hegemon, what was the United States

      Where exactly did he go?
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 4 August 2020 12: 33
        Where exactly did he go?

        Apparently, where was sent. smile Do you remember how the US left Libya?
      2. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 4 August 2020 12: 43
        On the Pacific Rim to gather forces, China is the number one enemy on the agenda ... Also in the US's own. To do "USA first", there is a lot of things to do, only a pandemic and the coming crisis will show "where the crayfish winter" ...
  2. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 4 August 2020 11: 36
    The West will remain with Turkey ...

    It is unlikely that Turkey will break off anything in Libya at all.
    It is wrong to regard the confrontation as Turkey - Egypt. Turkey is alone in this match, but France, Egypt, KSA, Russia and Israel are playing against it. This is not to mention the fact that the Turks got into Syria, and now also into the Armenian-Azerbaijani quarrel.
    Here they need to think not about how to tear off a piece from Libya, but how to survive on the map in its former form.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 4 August 2020 11: 55
      boriz Rightly noted that Turkey has problems ... The United States is zealous in this, supporting the Kurds and, in fact, the Kurdish statehood, which is clearly an existential problem for Turkey. Further, the coup d'etat failed by the United States with the planned assassination of R. Erdogan is also not forgotten ... The United States began to directly destroy Turkey as a regional leader. Hence the position of the Russian Federation - the enemy of my enemy, my friend ... This implies the need for allied relations with Turkey, as well as Iran. In this allied scenario, the United States will lose the Middle East "games", otherwise all will suffer further defeat on their own. For example, the United States is turning Armenia into an anti-Russian one, tied to the West and NATO, this is almost an accomplished fact - yet another defeat of the Russian Federation. Therefore, do not hesitate and act in an alliance .. Russia has the main problem, the liberal comprador government and high officials, which are tied to the enemies of Russia by their property, living families and other ties, and during the period of confrontation they are like traitors in their ranks ...
  3. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
    Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) 5 August 2020 01: 47
    The Egyptians are completely useless warriors. There, from 100 thousand there will be little sense, and almost 150 thousand are not about anything at all. Another thing is that Egypt has a large surplus of population and even a couple of lamas to put people in them is a normal topic for them in fact.