"Putin's secret weapon": how Russia is forcing Zelensky to peace

Somehow imperceptibly against the background of recent events in Belarus, our long-suffering Ukraine faded into the background. Although events there are going on as usual. Zelensky even tried to play the role of the third violin in the Belarusian orchestra, but he was quickly shown the door. However, in this case, the behavior of the Ukrainian president is worth considering separately. It serves as a marker of the assessment of events in Belarus by the powers that be, of which he is a servant.

Indicative here was Zelensky's turn from an attempt to consecrate the elections with his presence and thus legitimize their result by the party that sent him there, to the point of refusing to do so, and the announcement that the Belarusian "tsar" is not real! It can be seen that the powerful of this world, standing behind him, write their Belarusian part right in the course of the play. And everything is just beginning in it. It is already clear that the departure of the Chairman of the Belarusian collective farm is a settled issue. The mighty of this world agree under the carpet only on the candidacy of his replacement. And you can rest assured that Moscow is participating in these negotiations.



But let's return to our Ukraine and see who is pulling the strings of our master of playing the piano. And the situation around her on the eve of the events in Belarus took a very unexpected turn. It seems that they have taken it seriously now. And from four sides at once. One of them is the Democrats, who have united with the neocons of the United States, who stubbornly bend the old line through the local pseudo-elite, which is under their control and fed for 30 years of independence, relying on detachments of pseudo-Nazi militants that are in their support, before which our green ruler of the Ukrainian people's thoughts trembles ... But it is now confronted by three parties at once, temporarily uniting to solve a common task - forcing Ukraine to peace.

One of these sides is the Donald Trump administration and he himself, who is concerned at the moment with only one thing - the upcoming elections with the inevitability of a courier train, and is ready to go to bed for victory in them. And for this he needs compromising evidence against Biden, which Zelensky does not want to give out, who is quite rightly not sure of the victory of Donald Ibrahimovich, and therefore absolutely unwilling to play along with him in the upcoming elections. The other side is Angela Merkel, who has her own interest in Ukraine. She is already tired and has no desire to continue to drag this suitcase without a handle, and dreams of throwing it off to anyone. Whether Putin, Trump or anyone who comes instead of him, even Comrade. Si, although the latter pretends that he is not interested in Ukraine at all. Only her plant Motor Sich, deep-water ports on the Black Sea and millions of hectares of arable land, which completely in vain got to the fools (so comrade Xi would have found what to grow there!). And so he is practically not interested in Ukraine. Those. never in the second degree. But Madame Merkel has her own interest - she needs Russia, she needs SP-2 and she needs to get rid of these sanctions that the United States has imposed on Germany and the whole world. And for this she needs peace in Ukraine or lack of it, but this time through the fault of Ukraine.

And the third party, which has not gone anywhere and which continues to put pressure on Ukraine, forcing it to peace, is, of course, the Russian Federation. Only Putin has now completely unexpectedly used a tool for this, which is popularly called a spring from a Belarus tractor. Putin's interest can be easily explained - the costs of maintaining the status quo - an undeclared war with the country of blue benches - have already exceeded all estimates. Maintaining the combat readiness of Donbass, plus other accompanying costs for the Anti-Ukraine project, plus the consequences of anti-Russian sanctions, are hitting the RF budget very hard. The Kremlin is extremely interested in freezing the conflict in Donbass similar to Transnistria in order to free up resources for other projects that are randomly thrown by all sorts of enemies (for example, the unexpectedly flared Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict and Turkey's participation in it on the side of Baku, Khabarovsk, "Lublin Triangle" and various others), or those projects that the Kremlin itself is pursuing, in accordance with its geopolitical interests (Syria, Libya, Cuba, Vietnam, Venezuela, the development of its own Far East and the Arctic, etc., etc.).

Why exactly now all four sides decided to strike at Ukraine, apparently, so the cards came together. As the leader of the world proletariat said: "Yesterday it was early, tomorrow it will be late!" Apparently today or never. But to make it finally clear why it is now, it is necessary to recall a certain chronology of events.

Events began to accelerate shortly before the meeting in Berlin of the advisers to the leaders of the Normandy Four. It was then that the Russian side made a deliberate leak that it had given the Ukrainian side a three-day deadline until July 6, so that it could decide whether it was fulfilling Minsk or officially refusing to do it. Kiev, as usual, froze. After that, heavy artillery was used in the person of Madame Merkel. After a telephone conversation with her, our half-educated clown looked very pale. But this did not prevent the Verkhovna Rada from de jure denouncing the Minsk Agreements a week later, when by its decision it officially did not allow the residents of ORDLO to participate in the local elections coming in autumn, thereby de jure formalizing what existed de facto. After that, the Russian Federation could already officially demand from the EU the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions and move on to the recognition of the self-proclaimed republics. But the latter is just not included in the Kremlin's plans for the reasons that I have already spoke earlier... And that is why Putin took out the spring from the tractor Belarus, which had been gathering dust there for several years, from the mezzanine.

Putin's secret weapon

Now about the spring. You'd better never face it in your life. Zelensky, unfortunately, collided. And by their own stupidity. Here video... When the spring found out about this, Zelensky was no longer up to jokes. Then the case was hushed up with difficulty, but getting ready for the presidency, Zelensky decided to bleach his suit soiled in this story and again said too much.

But in vain! Ramzan, perhaps, would not have noticed, but there were people around Putin who noticed. As a result, the following letter from Ramzan Kadyrov appeared:


Kadyrov (apparently, at the request of the Kremlin) turned the conflict from a personal to an interstate one with a beautiful feint. After that I had to think about it already on Bankova. Zelensky was silent for two days, pondering what to do? After all, to take after that and call the President of the Russian Federation smelled of loss of face. The faces of the whole president of Ukraine (after all, now the face of Zelensky does not belong to him), well, can't the president of a great European power (all three words in quotation marks) rush to fulfill the wishes of all the infantrymen of Putin's army on demand? And the way out was found. Congenial!

At first, Zelenskiy muttered something like that he did not fully understand the essence of the text of the Minsk Agreements and whether there would be any partners in the Normandy format who would explain them to him. Just like a little child, by God! Both laughter and sin. And imagine, such a person was found. Guess from three times who they could be? That's right - Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Have you heard of this? It seems that the son of the First President of the Chechen Republic so persistently suggested contacting him. And then just the reason turned up. I don't know if Volodya was so scared of the threats of an ordinary infantryman in Putin's army, but the fact remains - such a conversation took place literally a day after Kadyrov's letter on the initiative of the Ukrainian side (I would like to draw your attention to the last fact!).

And then everything was like in a fairy tale - everything miraculous and miraculous ... Apparently, Vladimir Vladimirovich so clearly explained to Vladimir Alexandrovich all the advantages of the Minsk agreements that the very next day he announced that he did not see an alternative to Minsk-2 ... and announced a truce, already 29 -th in a row.

After that, events began to develop according to a completely unpredictable scenario. No sooner had the national radicals yelled about yet another "cheerful" and creeping revenge, when the incredible happened two days later ... Russia leaves the Normandy format. At least, this is how the Ukrainian media explained to their readers the letter of the official representative of the Russian Federation in the Normandy format Dmitry Kozak to his colleague in negotiations from the German side, Jan Hecker. Where Kozak, in a rather emotional form, or more simply, without choosing expressions, literally stated the following that he


All! End of quote. Carcass. Shine. The curtain. Everyone leaves. Someone is shooting, someone is drinking whiskey.

The discouraged inhabitants on both sides of the curb quieted down, not understanding how to understand all this? True, the Russian media rushed to clarify the very next day that Kozak simply did not see the point of communicating with his Ukrainian counterpart, head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, and suggested returning to negotiations on Minsk-2 at the level of the heads of foreign ministries. Those. in other words, Kozak proposed raising the level of negotiations in the Normandy format from the level of advisers and authorized persons to the level of foreign ministers (and who, if not diplomats, is supposed to deal with such protracted conflicts?).

What would it all mean?

And now I will try to explain in public language what really happened. This is not even a translation from diplomatic to generally accepted, but a translation from non-diplomatic to public, because Kozak demonstratively went beyond the diplomatic imperative.

It is obvious that Ermak, knowingly or not, did not fulfill the oral agreements between him and Kozak that he had assumed. You remember that they had established quite effective interaction before, starting with the conclusion of a gas contract on conditions unfavorable for the Russian Federation (the Russian Federation still overpays for transit, fulfilling the “download or pay” clause of the contract) and ending with subsequent exchanges of prisoners. The Russian Federation, as you can see, has fulfilled its oral obligations, but Ukraine represented by Yermak, obviously not. The drop that overflowed, apparently, the cup of patience, was the water for the Crimea, which the Ukrainian side could have supplied as a step of goodwill, but did not. As a result, the obligations already taken by Kozak to the President of the Russian Federation also turned out to be unfulfilled. Then a reasonable question arose: "Well, why do we need such negotiators?" That's right - there is no need! Cross out!

The fact that the Ukrainian side replaced the eternally young Leonid Danilovich, who turned 9 on August 82, for an even younger 86-year-old Leonid Makarovich, practically does not solve anything. As you know, the sum does not change from a change in the places of the terms. Therefore, we are waiting for the further development of events, while each of the parties is trying to strengthen its own negotiating positions. But the Russian side is playing for broke, trying to force the crisis that has arisen without waiting for autumn, which Zelensky is counting on ahead of the upcoming local elections. Moscow is trying in this way, having driven Kiev into a narrow corridor of opportunities, to persuade it to fulfill political part of the Minsk agreements or to the denunciation of them with the subsequent lifting of anti-Russian sanctions. Kiev, on the other hand, is maneuvering, trying to delay decision-making until the fall, until the upcoming local elections, where Zelensky cannot afford to lose votes, both of the supporters of the war party and the supporters of the peace party. A typical Ukrainian position: "No peace, no war, but at your expense!" Lover of walking "between the dots" Leonid Kravchuk is ideal for this role. Therefore, I don't expect anything good in the near foreseeable future. Until Moscow switches to active economic pressure on Kiev by refusing to supply coal, electricity, oil, diesel fuel and even gas, nothing will change. Nobody has ever managed to sit with one booty on two chairs. In six years, one could already be convinced of this.

Note

And finally, in a completely clear text for those who, after all of the above, did not understand anything. Understand the main thing for yourself - having undertaken such a demarche, Moscow has absolutely no intention of withdrawing from either the Minsk agreements or the Normandy format. Not going from the word "absolutely"! For her, this remains the last lever of pressure on Kiev, while there are no other levers. Believe me, no one is even considering a military solution to this issue either in Moscow or Kiev. There are no fools, as they say, because it will be the end for both capitals. Only for Kiev it is complete and final, but for Moscow the beginning of the end, because after an obvious victory no one there knows what to do with this territory, and no one in Moscow is going to put this collar around his neck again.

The discrepancy between Moscow and Kiev takes place only on the issue of Donbass (Crimea is a closed issue, you can forget about it!). Kiev stubbornly refuses to accept Donbass back, putting forward more and more unacceptable conditions, and Moscow, having the Minsk agreements in its hands, is in no hurry to help him in this problem - it needs an official refusal. But, unfortunately, Kiev does not understand that the loss of Donbass by any means, even as a result of a military defeat, even as a result of the denunciation of Minsk, will lead to the automatic loss of Ukrainian statehood. No matter how funny it is to say this, but Donbass is the cornerstone on which it still rests. As soon as you take it out, the whole building will crumble (according to the domino principle). The Russian Federation instantly recognizes Donbass as part of its territory, and looking at this, its example as it deteriorates economic the situation in Ukraine will want to follow and other territories, which are still fenced off with a zhovto-blakite fence. And the fact that the economic situation behind the fence is close to fatal is not even discussed - this is already a medical fact. Ukraine has long and firmly sits on artificial lung ventilation, as soon as you turn off the air supply (read - money), the patient will instantly give God his soul. But no one knows what to do with this patient who died in Bose. And now we see a picture when all sides of the Norman process are trying to shove a hopeless patient and his upcoming funeral to the third party, asking each other: “The patient was sweating before death? Yes this is good!". But for us, who are inside this living corpse, this does not make it any easier.

We've got everything! Sorry if upset anyone.